Quarterbacks Who Gained the Most Value This Offseason

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The NFL's offseason has felt like playing franchise on Madden. The activity has been nearly constant, and each move seems more surprising than the last one. But how does all of this action translate to quarterback value?

We asked the Footballguys staff, "Which quarterback has gained the move value this offseason?" Here's the discussion.

See quarterbacks who lost value here

Jason Wood

Mitch Trubisky and Marcus Mariota deserve consideration because both went from backups on contending teams to likely 2022 starters. But both signed team-friendly contracts that could ultimately position them as mere stopgaps. So I'll choose Deshaun Watson, who went from inactive Texan to franchise cornerstone Brown. Not only does Watson land $230 million guaranteed -- a new NFL record -- he moves to a team that many believe was a top-tier quarterback away from Super Bowl contention. He's only 26 years old and has the 2nd best passer rating in league history. Watson now has QB1 fantasy upside and is on a short-list of most coveted dynasty assets.

Kevin Coleman

Russell Wilson has been an efficient quarterback on the field and in fantasy. His only finish outside the Top 12 in fantasy the last eight seasons was QB19, which was last season after dealing with a fractured finger. If you adjust his finish to only account for PPG, he finished as QB13 in 2021. Those finishes look even more impressive given Seattle's offensive scheme throughout his tenure. In Wilson's new home in Denver, he'll be surrounded by Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, Javonte Williams, Albert Okwuegbunam, Tim Patrick, and K.J. Hamler. You could argue it is the best talent Wilson has ever played with, and they fit what Wilson does well. Since 2016, Wilson has been the best deep-ball thrower in the NFL with a quarterback rating of 110.8 and has averaged over 30 air yards per attempt. In this Denver system, he should easily finish as a top-eight quarterback in 2022.

Anthony Amico

It is easy to agree with Kevin regarding Wilson. For years, fantasy managers have asked coaches to "Let Russ Cook." Fair to say that after giving up so much for the veteran quarterback, there will be much cooking in Denver.

Dave Kluge

My gut reaction was Matt Ryan. But for all of the laud thrown towards the Colts' offensive line, they excelled at run blocking and didn't do great in pass protection last year. Trubisky and Mariota get shots as starters which boosts their value. But the answer has to be Deshaun Watson. Watson never had a well-rounded team in Houston and was forced to play hero ball, which padded his overall numbers. Despite his spectacular play, he went just 28-25 over his four seasons with the Texans. Now in Cleveland, he gets to play behind a solid offensive line, has an elite run game that Kevin Stefanski will focus on establishing, and has Amari Cooper as his WR1. If Baker Mayfield could crank out QB2 numbers there, there's no reason to expect Watson doesn't return to form as an elite QB1.

Jeff Haseley

I have a concern about Deshaun Watson's fantasy appeal: Cleveland is built for a strong running game and solid defense. Those two ingredients usually don't translate to a quarterback who throws 40-45 times a game. Cleveland's style of offense may not need Watson to win games with his arm, which isn't suitable for fantasy. He is in a tough division with Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and Baltimore, which could be the fuel needed to elevate Watson as more of a passer. Still, ultimately it depends on how Kevin Stefanski wants to run this team.

Dave Kluge

Jeff, I can't help but feel like Stefanski played to his personnel in Cleveland. Before joining the Browns, he was leading an offense that supported Kirk Cousins, Stefon Diggs, and Adam Thielen as robust fantasy options in addition to Dalvin Cook and the run game.

Jeff Haseley

Tua Tagovailoa's fantasy value and appeal just struck oil with the trade of Tyreek Hill and the addition of several key pieces, including all-pro left tackle Terron Armstead. One can only assume he will deliver and the fantasy points will follow. It would be egregious to think otherwise, but at the same time, I don't necessarily see him rising into the very crowded fantasy quarterback top 10. A rise to the top 15 is more likely. He had three games with 40+ pass attempts in 2021 with one game over two touchdowns. How much will that change in 2022? It's yet to be seen, but I don't think of a fantasy juggernaut when I think of Tagovailoa.

Zareh Kantzabedian

Mitchell Trubisky is on a team that you wish every quarterback selected first overall would end up on.

It was less than a year ago when the thought of Trubisky as a starting-caliber quarterback was an afterthought. The free agency market in 2021 was unresponsive to his talents, and he instead signed with the Buffalo Bills as a backup QB.

Fantasy managers in Superflex leagues kept him as an end-of-bench stash. Now he finds himself on the Pittsburgh Steelers. A team with an embarrassment of riches on the offensive side of the ball.

He's the presumed bridge quarterback for the time being. But there is a solid chance he establishes himself in Pitt and on fantasy managers rosters for the long term.

Considering the weapons, Trubisky's mobility, and the overall competence of the Steelers organization, his allure in 2022 keeps my mind racing.

Ryan Weisse

I know this is against some analysis in our Which Quarterback Lost Value article, but I'm going to say Patrick Mahomes II. If losing Tyreek Hill makes him affordable, he gained fantasy value. The sample is small, but Mahomes played four games without Hill in 2019 and averaged 363 yards, two touchdowns, and 27 fantasy points. He is still a top-3 QB, but maybe without the price tag he once had. In dynasty, managers might be ready to move him for a lesser quarterback and a couple of draft picks. It's worth throwing out an offer now. While we need to wait on redraft ADP, if this pushes him beyond the 5th Round, he is the cheapest he's been since his breakout year. The Chiefs' draft could change the perception in a heartbeat, but right now, to some managers, the sky is falling. Take advantage of that value in the market.

Jeff Haseley

I think we can't ignore Trevor Lawrence when we talk about improvement. He should benefit from subtracting Urban Meyer from the equation alone. Adding Doug Pederson as mission control, as well as acquiring Christian Kirk and a healthy longtime teammate in Travis Etienne also should point Lawrence in the right direction.

Jason Wood

I agree Lawrence is a winner, on paper. But his rookie season was so historically bad, he has to overcome pretty much all of NFL history to end up even as a moderately good starter.

Jeff Bell

Lawrence consistently failed a lot of the areas people had concerns coming in. I would enjoy reading the counter to all the buzz that says simply removing Meyer will wash away all faults.

Dave Kluge

I agree with all of you but the epic mishandling of just about everything by Urban Meyer makes it easy to envision a bounceback. While it would defy the historical odds, I can't throw in the towel on Lawrence quite yet. I'll give him a full season under Pederson before I'm willing to write him off.

Peyton Manning's rookie season:

• 3-13 record
• 56.7% completion
• 26 TDs
• 28 INTs
• 71.2 QB rating

Trevor Lawrence's rookie season:

• 3-14 record
• 59.6% completion
• 12 TDs
• 17 INTs
• 71.9 QB rating

There's obviously a lot more to the story than the surface-level stats, but let's not forgot that some guys are just slow out the gate.

Jason Wood

Dave, absolutely. Lawrence was considered a generational talent such that we have to be open to his being an outlier, relative to history. That's important to consider. And as long as his ADP doesn't require full conviction, it's not a bad risk to take particularly in deeper leagues.

Ben Cummins

Tua Tagovailoa isn't a sexy quarterback, but he is a solid starter with fantastic accuracy. New Dolphins' head coach, Mike McDaniel, was with the 49ers from 2017-2021 and was the offensive coordinator in San Francisco last season. Over that time, the 49ers consistently put an emphasis on getting their playmakers the ball in space to allow them to accentuate their strengths. McDaniel has already expressed his desire to transfer that philosophy to the Dolphins and newly acquired Tyreek Hill paired with Jaylen Waddle will make this a seamless transition. Hill and Waddle form the fastest WR duo in the league and will allow the quick passing game to excel. Tagovailoa's statistics will look better thanks to his playmakers' yards after catch ability. Mike Gesicki was retained and additional reinforcements in Cedrick Wilson, Chase Edmonds, Raheem Mostert, Terron Armstead, and Connor Williams have been brought in. Tagovailoa's arrow is pointing up.

Scott Bischoff

The Dolphins wide receiver situation is interesting, and I think Hill gives them what they were trying to achieve last year with Will Fuller. I think the natural reaction to them drafting Waddle was using him down the field as a vertical threat, but that's the role I thought Fuller would fill, with Waddle running short slants and making plays with the ball in his hands after the catch.

Obviously, Hill is a very big upgrade from Fuller, and I think he'll open parts of the middle of the field just by running routes and occupying coverage. Wondering what you all think in terms of a nice upgrade for Gesicki?

I'm thinking we'll see lots of underneath stuff for Waddle with some big, built-in vertical shots for Hill.

Jeff Bell

Is it cheating to pick Tom Brady? He was done entirely on dynasty rosters for a month, and the Buccanneers faced questions on Chris Godwin and Leonard Fournette heading into free agency. Add in the surprise retirement of Ali Marpet, and it seemed limbo awaited the Bucs. Then in a flash, Godwin and Fournette were back; the team filled the hole left by Marpet with an excellent trade for Shaq Mason and then capped it by adding Russell Gage as a third wide receiver. It is tough to say a quarterback gained as much value as Brady returning from his six-week retirement.

Andy Hicks

Dave touched on him but went in another direction. Matt Ryan lost Julio Jones, would have lost Calvin Ridley for 2022 and Russell Gage went to Tampa. He only had Cordarrelle Patterson and Kyle Pitts left. Now Indianapolis also has some less important subtractions in Zach Pascal, T.Y. Hilton, and Jack Doyle, but I am confident the rest of free agency and the draft will make adding a receiver or two a priority for the Colts. Maybe even a Julio Jones reunion. Indianapolis will run the ball and Jonathan Taylor leads the offense, but Matt Ryan will move back to his traditional borderline QB1 status rather than be forgotten about as he would have been.