Links to similar discussions on other positions:
Let’s begin this exercise with a reminder that having only one starting quarterback spot in lineups cuts down on the strategy element of drafting and lineup setting with at least 12 quarterbacks who are likely to score at historical fantasy QB1 levels. Consider adding a Superflex spot that includes quarterback as an option or a second quarterback spot in your redraft league’s starting lineups. Dynasty is a bit trickier as decisions have been made already that rely on the 1QB lineup setting, but if you are starting a new dynasty league, Superflex/2QB is a lot more fun.
This year’s quarterback group has more potential for scoring decreases at the top than scoring increases, but that could make an early investment in Josh Allen more valuable, and if you hit on the QB1 who most greatly exceeds ADP value (Kyler Murray, Russell Wilson, and Trey Lance come to mind), it could be a key to winning your league - even if you only start one.
THE QB1
- Josh Allen, BUF
Allen stands alone because his durability, situation stability, and fantasy track records/trends all make him the safest elite fantasy quarterback. He might not finish #1, but he’s unlikely to finish outside of the top 5.
THE QB1 CEILING
- Kyler Murray, ARI
- Justin Herbert, LAC
- Lamar Jackson, BAL
TARGET: Murray
All of these quarterbacks have a QB1 finish within reach, but there are obstacles in the way.
Murray’s durability record and missing DeAndre Hopkins for the first six games gives fantasy drafters pause, but a no-name cornerback group could get him into a lot of shootouts. If his rushing production returns to 2020 levels, he’ll be the fantasy QB1 as long as he’s healthy.
Herbert’s arrow is pointing up, but his pass attempts also spiked in 2021. More balance could take the edge off of his upside, but he’s the safest top five pick at quarterback after Allen.
Jackson’s rush upside should be through the roof this year with a reported return to the 2019 blueprint for the offense, but the Ravens don’t have a field stretcher at wide receiver like they did then and teams have a lot more experience defending Jackson. There’s a wide gap between Jackson’s floor and ceiling this year.
SOLID QB1
- Patrick Mahomes II, KC
- Jalen Hurts, PHI
- Tom Brady, TB
- Russell Wilson, DEN
- Aaron Rodgers, GB
- Joe Burrow, CIN
- Trey Lance, SF
- Matthew Stafford, LAR
TARGET: Wilson, Lance
AVOID: Mahomes
A QB1 overall finish is unlikely for this group, but they are very likely to be in the top 12-15 and score close to the last QB1 in any scenario.
Mahomes without Tyreek Hill is largely an unknown, but we saw him reinvent himself last year and he has latent rushing upside. The top range of outcomes comes down without Hill, but his ADP will probably be too high due to his reputation.
Hurts' low pass attempts will keep him out of the truly elite fantasy quarterback group, but efficiency could go up significantly with the addition of A.J. Brown. He’s a worthy target at ADP.
Brady is ultrasafe piloting a pass-heavy offense, but he won’t have Antonio Brown this year, and Chris Godwin is coming off of a torn ACL, so Brady will likely be down from his 2021 peak, but not so much to knock him out of the solid TE1 tier.
Wilson is an exciting proposition with the possibility of finally playing in an offense that embraces his talents, surrounded by pass-catching talent. His dropoff last year could have been mostly due to his finger injury. He’s a good target if you want to wait until at least 6-8 teams have their quarterback.
Rodgers' fantasy output without Davante Adams over the last few years has been strong and the sample is large enough (seven games in three years) to trust that he will be a solid contributor, even if losing Adams has lowered his season-long and weekly ceiling.
It won’t be shocking if Burrow moves up into the top-five fantasy quarterbacks this year. His line is improved and his young wide receiver corps has fully hit their stride. His numbers benefited from two massive games late in the season, but he also had a surprisingly low number of pass attempts as the pilot of a top pass offense.
Lance is a true boom/bust pick this year, but he appears to be the unquestioned starter and the only running quarterback to play in a Kyle Shanahan offense (Robert Griffin III III) was a smashing success with a supporting cast that was nowhere near as good as this one. He could be anywhere from a frustrating peak and valley play to a league winner.
Stafford getting an offseason injection in his throwing elbow is worrisome, but adding Allen Robinson should keep this pass offense and Stafford’s fantasy prospects strong as long as the quarterback is healthy.
STRONG QB2 WITH SOLID QB1 UPSIDE
- Dak Prescott, DAL
- Derek Carr, LV
AVOID: Prescott
Neither of these quarterbacks will be fantasy liabilities and they both have paths to solid QB1 seasons. The problem is that both can err on the side of being conservative and might not benefit from offensive line play as much as they have in the past.
Prescott losing Amari Cooper and not having a full-speed Michael Gallup at the beginning of the season will likely keep him from getting off to a hot start on a team that wants the offense to run their backfield. He’s a little overdrafted on the strength of his amazing start to 2020 before getting hurt.
Carr’s reunion with Davante Adams gives the Raiders a trio of targets that will be hard to defend if Josh McDaniels deploys them correctly, but the next top 10 fantasy season Carr has will be his first.
BOOM/BUST QB2, EMPHASIS ON BOOM
- Justin Fields, CHI
- Deshaun Watson, CLE
- Trevor Lawrence, JAX
- Zach Wilson, NYJ
- Tua Tagovailoa, MIA
- Daniel Jones, NYG
TARGET: Fields, Wilson, Jones
This group could flirt with QB1 projection and outproduce ADP but all have risk factors that could make them tough to rely on outside of Superflex/2QB leagues.
The new regime in Chicago should be much better poised to set him up for success, but the supporting cast is not going to be a plus, which could create a lot of week-to-week matchup-based volatility.
It appears Watson will get some sort of suspension to begin the year or perhaps cancel the season for him. The public perception (which the NFL is sensitive to) has been trending more and more negatively, so this situation remains unpredictable.
Lawrence will get to work with Doug Pederson and should be able to show more reasons that he was the #1 overall pick last year, but this offense is still a work in progress and unlikely to create a true ceiling season for Lawrence this year.
Wilson should at least be better prepared to hold up physically this year, and his team has given him the weapons to regain some of his college form if he can handle NFL defenses - which is still far from settled.
Tagovailoa hasn’t had offensive stability so far in his career, but the Mike McDaniel hire promises that - even if his background points towards a more run-heavy offense than one that asks Tagovauiloa to throw more to take advantage of the acquisition of Tyreek Hill.
It’s possible that Jones surprises us now that there’s the semblance of a competent organization and coaching staff around him. He can make chunk plays as a runner and the offense has no shortage of weapons, plus a good set of young tackles to build around on the offensive line.
SOLID QB2
- Kirk Cousins, MIN
- Jameis Winston, NO
- Matt Ryan, IND
- Jared Goff, DET
TARGET: Goff
This group represents solid matchup plays in a late-round QBBC approach for 1QB leagues, and they are solid floor plays in any given week, especially in scoring systems that emphasize passing yards and touchdowns, but they aren’t going to be fantasy QB1 level scorers on a points-per-game basis.
Cousins will be in a new offense this year, but it could actually help his stats if the team is less run-heavy and uses more three-wide sets under Kevin O’Connell.
Winston will be healthy to begin the season and he’ll have a lot better supporting cast than he did last year when he was incredibly efficient under Sean Payton, who is a coaching free agent in “retirement” now. Winston could make fantasy players who pick their spots correctly look very smart if Michael Thomas returns to form.
Ryan should at the very least represent a big improvement for the Colts offense, and with a better offensive line and running game to leverage, he could have his best season in years. It will still be capped by an offense that will be on the conservative side with a lot of inexperience at wide receiver.
Goff is underrated in fantasy circles and the Lions have assembled an offensive line and wide receiver group that should make his life easier. He should be improved from last year’s modest numbers.
BOOM/BUST QB2, EMPHASIS ON BUST
- Marcus Mariota, ATL
- Mitchell Trubisky, PIT
- Carson Wentz, WAS
- Ryan Tannehill, TEN
AVOID: Wentz, Tannehill
This group is full of quarterbacks who could hit in any given week if you have to rely on them, but they can also cause you to lose your week.
Mariota has been reunited with Arthur Smith, but the last time they were together, he lost his job. The last time we saw Mariota, he looked like a different quarterback, although he’ll be swimming upstream against having one of the worst supporting casts in the league and could lose his job to third-round pick Desmond Ridder during the season.
Trubisky looks like the clear leader to start Week 1 and he’s a good fit for the Matt Canada offense, which should leverage his mobility, maybe to the effect of creating solid rushing stats. If the Steelers lose too many games, Trubisky will lose his job to first-round pick Kenny Pickett.
Wentz was an adventure in fantasy and on the field last year, and that probably won’t change in Washington. His abilities to run and hit on big plays downfield still give him spot start value, and he was a consistent fantasy QB1 at a few points in his career, including the first half of last season.
Tannehill lost A.J. Brown this offseason, so his top two receivers will be a raw first-round pick and a receiver coming back from an ACL tear. This could be his last go as a starter, and if the season is lost at any point, we might see third-round pick Malik Willis.
BYE/INJURY/EMERGENCY PLAY
- Davis Mills, HOU
- Mac Jones, NE
This duo could have their moments, but they are unlikely to make a sustained fantasy impact this season.
SHOULD START SOMEWHERE
- Baker Mayfield, CLE/???
- Jimmy Garoppolo, SF/???
This duo is likely to start some, if not all of the games this year, but for what team and under what circumstances is still unknown.
SHOULD START WEEK 1
- Geno Smith, SEA
- Jacoby Brissett, CLE
This duo should be considered likely Week 1 starters, but who knows for long after that. Both are only desperation plays, even in 2QB/Superflex leagues.
SHOULD/COULD START AT SOME POINT
- Kenny Pickett, PIT
- Desmond Ridder, ATL
- Tyrod Taylor, NYG
- Tyler Huntley, BAL
- Malik Willis, TEN
- Teddy Bridgewater, MIA
- Matt Corral, CAR
Because of the transitory nature of the starter ahead of them, or the potential for injury to the starter, all of the members of this group have a reasonable chance to start at least one game this year. They are ranked by a rough combination of the likelihood and likely duration of their starting stint, and their fantasy potential if they do become starters. All should be drafted in 2QB/Superflex as long as roster size allows
YOU NEVER KNOW
- Gardner Minshew, PHI
- Jordan Love, GB
- Drew Lock, SEA
- Joe Flacco, NYJ
- Colt McCoy, ARI
- Andy Dalton, NO
- Taylor Heinicke, WAS
- Sam Howell, WAS
- Kaleb Eleby, SEA
There’s not a lot of fantasy potential here, but this group could produce some starts, either by injury to the starter, demotion in the case of SEA/WAS quarterbacks, or a trade to a desperate team. They should be on your waiver wire watch list in 2QB/Superflex.