Week 9 is complete, and dynasty movement continues. Injuries have created new opportunities or raised long-term questions about players. Elsewhere young players are solidifying their opportunity for playing time and fantasy production. Weekly the Footballguys staff will share their thoughts on the dynasty ranking movement and answer a critical question you may face.
Look ahead to free agency, who is one player whose value can shift dramatically dynasty players can speculatively target now?
Will Grant
The free agency market is pretty well fished over in most dynasty leagues by this point in the season, but one could make a case that Marquez Callaway is worth a dart. Stats on Callaway have not been great, but Michael Thomas is now done for the season (again). Plus, the depth chart in New Orleans after Chris Olave is pretty fluid. Callaway has been targeted 19 times in the last four games and was wide open for an easy touchdown pass last week, but Andy Dalton overthrew him. Callaway is probably sitting on the waiver wire in most dynasty leagues, but he should see increased playing time over the rest of the year. He's a free agent after this season, and a strong finish now could put him into a better role in 2023.
Andy Hicks
My favorite player to target is DErnest Johnson, currently with the Browns. Stuck on the depth chart behind Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, Johnson has always delivered when given the opportunity. In the four games where he has had more than 10 carries, he has rushing yardage totals of 146, 99, 123, and 95. On 141 career rushing attempts, he averages 5.2 yards per carry. As a more than capable receiver out of the backfield, he should demonstrate on a new team that he is more than just a system back. He should choose his next destination very carefully, as free agency repeatedly demonstrates that diamonds come out of the rough every year.
Quarterback
Will Grant
Deshaun Watson, Cleveland - Personal actions aside, the Browns need Deshaun Watson, and he's about to get his chance. Week 13 is the first game where he's eligible to play, and the Browns have already named him the starter. Jacoby Brissett has just seven passing touchdowns in eight games. Expect Watson to come out and blow that away in just a couple of weeks. Watson's first game back will be against Houston, followed by Cincinnati, Baltimore, New Orleans, and Washington. That's a pretty soft matchup going into the fantasy playoffs this season as well. If you can look past the off-the-field issues, Watson looks like a solid fantasy option starting in just a few weeks.
Tua Tagovailoa, Miami - Tagovailoa is back after missing a couple of games due to a concussion, and he's been on fire. He has nearly 700 yards passing and 6 passing touchdowns over the last two weeks alone. The Dolphins are a different team with him under center, and he makes them competitive no matter who they are facing. If he can stay healthy, Tagovailoa looks like a top-five fantasy quarterback - an excellent choice to captain your team after top guys like Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen.
Justin Fields, Chicago - The Bears have been conservative with Fields all season, and his game-decision skills were not great earlier in the year. But Chicago's run-first and run-often offense has given Fields what he needs - time to adjust to the speed of the game. They've also re-designed the offense to give him more time and take advantage of his running skills. He's amassed over 400 yards rushing over the last four games, including an unbelievable 175 yards on the ground against Miami last week. He's also had three rushing touchdowns, and he's a massive threat to vulture goal-line touchdowns. The Bears also traded for Chase Claypool to give him an upgrade at wide receiver. Fields may not throw for 200 yards very often, but his running game and lack of turnovers (he has just two interceptions in the last six games) make him a decent backup/Superflex option now with upside if the Bears continue to add more offensive weapons next season.
Andy Hicks
Justin Fields, Chicago - The coaching staff for the Bears finally seem to have figured out how to use Fields. Work is still required as a passer, but adding Chase Claypool gives him another receiver to develop with. As a runner, he is producing elite numbers. Ones that vault him much higher in dynasty rankings. Until his pass completion percentage lifts, the elite ranking spots will have to wait. Of regular starters, he is ahead of only Russell Wilson and Zach Wilson.
Matthew Stafford, LA Rams - The last few years of Stafford in Detroit were a quarterback struggling with his body and poor play around him. Then everything went right in his first year with the Rams. The Stafford we see in 2022 is more like what I was expecting last year. He will be closer to 36 than 35 at the start of the next season, and his body seems the type to crumble quickly. A big drop has to have happened, but with help around him, he may pull out another good year yet.
Jason Wood
Justin Fields, Chicago - I had all but given up on the 2021 quarterback class a few weeks ago, and still think it's shaping up to be the biggest bust (relative to pre-draft expectations) in decades. But Justin Fields stands apart as a riser. He was being asked to do very little at the start of the season, but each week the coaches have unleashed him a bit more, and we're getting close to a passing volume level that, along with his amazing rushing prowess, puts him in position for fantasy stardom. He's now my favorite dynasty quarterback who's not also a must-start in 2022 redraft formats.
Tua Tagovailoa, Miami - How many times did it seem Tagovailoa was going to bust? The Dolphins seemed to have ten other plans at quarterback, but as the dust settled, he remained in place and is now playing incredibly well. He's not only keeping Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle viable, he's got them both playing at top-10 rates.
Zach Wilson, New York - Age and draft capital matter, but Wilson has been dreadful and shown no improvement. He's arguably the worst thing about the Jets right now, who looks like a playoff contender otherwise. He's out of the Top 20 and, frankly, didn't belong there to begin with.
Tom Brady, Tampa Bay - Brady's dynasty value was already markedly lower than his redraft value, given his age and dalliance with retirement. But hopes he had another elite season or two are dashed now, and it's time to seriously wonder if we've seen the last of him as a viable fantasy asset.
Running Back
Andy Hicks
Dameon Pierce, Houston - Pierce has been a revelation in Houston this year. Drafted in the fourth round, He was the seventh running back selected. He leads all rookie runners with 678 rushing yards, despite playing for a Texan team struggling to win games. With only two mediocre performances in his year to date, the future looks bright. Jumps into the RB1 discussion. With more touchdowns and a better team around him, he would be elite.
Travis Etienne, Jacksonville - The workload given to Travis Etienne is both delightful and scary at the same time. 52 carries against the Raiders and Broncos surely is unsustainable. Even with a slight reduction in workload, his numbers are still impressive and worthy of a bump in rankings. I still have concerns about durability, but there are not many running backs with a better future ahead of them.
Jason Wood
Travis Etienne, Jacksonville - This year, we've seen a restocking of the dynasty cupboard at running back, and Etienne is at or near the top of the youth movement alongside Ken Walker. In James Robinson's absence, the young tailback has taken on a heavy workload and looks like he gets better with more touches. Once viewed as a potential change-of-pace open field threat, Etienne is quickly proving he can produce on any down and distance.
Rhamondre Stevenson, New England - Stevenson was an ascendant player in the summer, but most viewed his upside as 1a to Damien Harris' 1b in a full-blown committee. We were wrong. Stevenson is the engine for a Patriots offense that lacks playmakers. Defenses know the Patriots want to control the clock with Stevenson, and yet they've been unable to stop him. The sky is the limit.
Dameon Pierce, Houston - Pierce doesn't quite move into the Top 10, but he's knocking on the door with an excellent first half of the season, capped with a dominant effort against the Eagles' elite run defense. If the Texans can find an answer at quarterback this offseason, Pierce could be a first-round caliber fantasy asset for a few years.
DAndre Swift, Detroit - I appear to be well below the rest of the industry, and my Footballguys peers, on Swift, but how can anyone value him as a premier piece in dynasty? The running back position is fungible, even when someone is proven. But Swift's inability to stay healthy, and Jamaal Williams' continued strong play in his stead, leaves me wondering if we're closer to Swift finding a new team as the RB3 than we are a long stretch of healthy, can't-miss games.
Will Grant
DAndre Swift, Detroit - Swift may be back from injury, but his 15 total touches over the last two games wouldn't have you pay it much attention. The Lions are doing everything that they can to give Swift a chance but he's just not producing for them. He might be worth a flex spot in PPR leagues, but unless something changes, he's a guy just taking up space on your fantasy roster that you hope will rebound but will break your heart if you dare to put him in the starting lineup.
Leonard Fournette, Tampa Bay - Tom Brady may still have some gas in the tank, and he looked awesome leading his team to a last-second victory last week against the Rams. But Bucs gave KeShawn Vaughn and Rachaad White a couple of carries during the game, looking to get their running game out of the rut that Fournette seems to be in. They didn't fair much better against the Rams, but while Fournette is still the main focus of the rushing attack, his 3.3 yards per carry for the season speak to a bigger problem. The Bucs are in first place, but their 4-5 record and their 25th-ranked offense show a team struggling to find its way. Fournette can't be trusted in your lineup right now, and his future may be in question as well.
Melvin Gordon, Denver - Gordon is still the primary back in Denver this season. For whatever that's worth. He has 28 touches over the last three games, and the only thing that made him fantasy relevant in that time was the rushing touchdown he had last week against Jacksonville. His 3.5 yards per carry isn't enough to sustain him, and the focus on using Latavius Murray more should give any Gordon fantasy owner pause. Murray 25 touches in the last two games, better stats, and more touchdowns. This isn't an endorsement of Murray so much as it is an indicator that the running game in Denver is to be avoided right now.
Wide Receiver
Jason Wood
Tyreek Hill, Miami - Hill's trade to Miami left me wondering if the Dolphins' passing attack could support two receivers consistently. Even if you thought Hill would be better than Waddle, it was hard to see either at top-10 assets. Yet, halfway through the season, both are putting up massive numbers, with Hill on pace for the mythical 2,000-yard campaign.
DK Metcalf, Seattle - The Seahawks are the team I got the most wrong this year, as I thought Geno Smith would completely neuter the offense. Instead, Smith looks like Russell Wilson, and the team is pushing hard for a playoff berth despite an awful defense. Metcalf's talent and contract extension always warranted a higher dynasty ranking, but with the albatross of poor quarterbacking lifted, he deserves a big move back to his 2021 perceived value.
DAndre Hopkins, Arizona - Hopkins is 30 years old, but we cannot deny he's still one of the league's best playmakers. He stepped back into the Cardinals' lineup and was instantly Kyler Murray's best and most trusted target.
JuJu Smith-Schuster, Kansas City - Fantasy managers have an irrational dislike for Smith-Schuster, and you should use that to your advantage by acquiring him now before people catch up to the reality -- he is Patrick Mahomes II' favorite wide receiver. Despite a slow start, he's now on pace for 88 receptions, 1,165 yards, and a half dozen touchdowns. Don't forget he's only 25 years old (he was young coming into the league) and could be one of the Chiefs' key pieces for years to come.
Courtland Sutton, Denver - The Broncos have been a disaster, and 2023 may be a renaissance if they find a better play-caller and Russell Wilson gets healthy. But that's too many variables, not to mention Sutton hasn't looked good versus Jerry Jeudy this season. With Tim Patrick returning in 2023 and Greg Dulcich emerging, Sutton could be a never-was after many of us expected him to be the breakout beneficiary of the Wilson trade.
Keenan Allen, Los Angeles - Allen can pull his dynasty outlook out of a tailspin with a healthy second half. But right now, he looks like a veteran who has broken down and may never again be one of the Chargers' centerpieces.
Will Grant
Michael Pittman, Indianapolis - The Colts are in trouble. A team that should be a solid playoff contender is looking at their second head coach and possibly 3rd starting quarterback in the first 10 games of the season. If the Colts turn to Nick Foles or go back to Matt Ryan, Pittman should see an uptick, but right now, he's not posting quality stats. Most troubling is the lack of touchdowns - none since the first game of the season. He's still getting a decent number of targets per game, but for now, he is a guy you have to pray a bit when you insert him into your fantasy lineup.
Christian Kirk, Jacksonville - Kirk continues to post decent numbers, given what was expected of him going into the season. he has 26 targets over the last three games and posted 18 receptions for 215 yards and a touchdown in that same stretch. While Zay Jones, Marvin Jones, and even Jamal Agnew continue to fight each other for receptions each week, Kirk is the clear #1 option for the passing game. He's a solid WR3 / flex in any PPR league and deserves a bump in status for dynasty leagues drafting from scratch.
Allen Robinson, LA Rams - I admit it. I was completely wrong about Allen Robinson's role in Los Angeles. I fully expected him to put up some of the best numbers for his career. Instead, he's completely faded into the background. While he's still getting a couple of targets a week, his 140 yards receiving over the last three weeks isn't going to win you any fantasy games. Robinson belongs on your bench for now until he gets a bigger role in Los Angeles or moves on to another organization.
Andy Hicks
Garrett Wilson, NY Jets - Garrett Wilson is the number one wide receiver the Jets have been trying to draft seemingly for decades. His rookie season has him poised to break the 1000-yard mark, and he looks good doing it. What holds him back is a lack of touchdowns and an erratic young quarterback. He deserves a boost in rankings as one of the more promising receivers of this year's draft class.
Terrace Marshall, Carolina - Highly touted after being drafted in the second round in 2021 by Carolina, Terrace Marshall struggled under Matt Rhule. With the departure of Rhule and the trade of Robbie Anderson, an opportunity has presented itself for Marshall to see some targets, and his career looks to be finally taking off. He gets a provisional solid bump but has many obstacles still in front of him.
Josh Palmer, LA Chargers - With Keenan Allen aging and long-term injured and Mike Williams also injured and inconsistent when on the field, Josh Palmer has been allowed to showcase his skills. The future of Justin Herbert relies on the development of his receivers, and Palmer is at the front of the queue. Palmer has until the end of the season to prove to the organization they don’t need to look elsewhere. I am not yet convinced, but he deserves a good jump in his dynasty rankings.
Tight End
Andy Hicks
T.J. Hockenson and Irv Smith, Minnesota - Following the significant ankle injury to Irv Smith, the Vikings were swift to trade for his fellow 2019 draftee T.J. Hockenson. Hockenson should produce at a higher level than Smith, who seemed to disappoint the organization. Hockenson maybe moves up a spot or two after being heavily targeted in his Minnesota debut. Smith, on the other hand, has to drop significantly until his next destination is known.
Cade Otton, Tampa Bay - After limited action in his first three games as a professional, Cade Otton has had a great first season since. He currently tracks as a borderline starting fantasy option and looks like one of the more promising players at tight end. The obvious problem is what happens post-Tom Brady. Will that be in 2023 or the year after? In the right circumstances, he becomes elite. That is far from certain though so he takes a tentative leap up the rankings
Jason Wood
Cade Otton, Tampa Bay - Any valuation of the Buccaneers bears risk because Tom Brady won't be there for much longer. But given the difficulties of mastering the tight end position, Cade Otton's play so far has been revelatory. He's a good blocker, has made key plays in traffic, and has earned Brady's trust quickly.
James Mitchell, Detroit - The Lions' curious decision to trade T.J. Hockenson to division rival Minnesota leaves a massive void at tight end and in Jared Goff's passing progressions. While Brock Wright will play important snaps, too, it's Mitchell who has the athleticism and route-running to emerge as a game-breaker. He's raw, and nothing is guaranteed, but given the barren nature of the position, he's worth targeting as a developmental piece.
Teagan Quitoriano, Houston - Quitoriano spent the first half of his rookie season on injured reserve but returned against the Eagles and caught a touchdown. The Texans are bereft of playmakers and have used a carousel of middling options at tight end season to date. Quitoriano is the kind of end-of-roster add in deeper leagues that could pay off massively down the road.
Will Grant
T.J. Hockenson, Minnesota - Hockenson was traded to division-rival Minnesota, and he responded with an impressive nine catches on nine targets for 70 yards. The Vikings have been looking for a consistent option at tight end for several seasons now, and Irv Smith isn't working out the way they hoped. Hockenson gives Kirk Cousins another weapon, and it gives Hockenson a chance to shine in someplace other than Detroit. Hockenson was already a top-10 fantasy tight end. With the Vikings, he could climb into the top five and possibly finish with the tier 1 tight ends this season.
Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia - As Jalen Hurts keeps the Eagles rolling, Goedert continues to grow in opportunities and fantasy relevance. He posted a season-high eight receptions for 100 yards and a touchdown last week against the Texans. More importantly, though, when the Texans were threatening to get back in the game, the Eagles marched down the field for an easy touchdown, largely on the back of Goedert. Hurts targeted him multiple times, and when he needed a key first down, Goedert was his go-to guy. His stock is rising, and he's a difference-maker for fantasy teams.
Albert Okwuegbunam, Denver - No targets. Inactive. At the bottom of the depth chart. Okwuegbunam's best chance for fantasy relevance is to be cut and sign with another team. He began the season as Denver's top tight end. Now he's not worth a roster spot.
