Cutting Through the Noise, Week 9

Each week in Cutting Through the Noise, we will take an objective look at one of the most polarizing players in Dynasty Fantasy Football as decided by the Footballguys Dynasty Discord. We will use the Footballguys consensus rankings to gauge where the player is currently valued.

Chase Claypool

WR52 and Overall No. 120

Chase Claypool consistently progressed throughout his four years with the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. He played his freshman and senior seasons with NFL-worthy quarterback production from DeShone Kizer and Ian Book, but he had to work through two seasons of Brandon Wimbush in the middle. He finished his career with a respectable 66 receptions for 1037 yards and 13 touchdowns. His production was hardly the root of his draft value as Claypool graded out as one of the highest RAS (Relative Athletic Scores) of all time according to RAS.football.Claypool ended up running an astonishing 4.42 forty-yard dash at 6-foot-4 and 238 pounds.

Despite Claypool’s respectable production, massive frame, and impressive speed, there was nothing he could do to propel himself into the first round. He was up against the most loaded draft class of the decade. He was competing with the likes of CeeDee Lamb, Jerry Jeudy, Henry Ruggs, Jalen Reagor, Justin Jefferson, and Brandon Aiyuk. With no shot at a first-round selection, Claypool earned a great consolation prize when he was selected by the wide receiver production factory that is the Pittsburgh Steelers. He was drafted in the second round but was the 11th wide receiver off the board.

Claypool had an impressive rookie season which has trailed off into moderate production over the past two years and has been capped with a trade to the Chicago Bears. His recent movement, especially given the draft compensation the Bears were willing to send, has made Claypool one of the most polarizing players in dynasty.

The Good

Chase Claypool arrived on the scene with a bang in an ironically similar situation to present-day George Pickens. Claypool was quickly elevated to the second wide receiver alongside JuJu Smith-Schuster, catching passes from Ben Roethlisberger. Claypool's production largely depended on the deep ball, as he was seventh in the league in receptions over 30 yards. He finished his rookie year with 109 targets for 62 receptions and 873 yards. One of the major keys to his storyline is his nine touchdowns.

After Claypool’s rookie season, he was one of the most valuable players in dynasty. When he failed to immediately build on his rookie campaign, dynasty managers quickly soured on him, but was it justified? As previously mentioned, Claypool’s game is heavily predicated on the deep ball. In 2021 he went from the 7th most receptions of 30 or more yards to 36th. Roethlisberger attempted relatively the same number of passes, but he was no longer at a point in his career where he was able to push the ball down the field. Dionte Johnson benefited heavily from the quick passes and low average depth of target, but Claypool suffered.

Despite the offense’s shortcomings, Claypool managed to essentially match his rookie numbers in targets, receptions, and receiving yards. The only notable difference was the drop from nine touchdowns to two. Roethlisberger threw only 22 touchdowns on the season, which was 11 fewer than the year prior. Given the historical comparisons for Claypool’s first two seasons, he’s an amazing value at wide receiver 52, but we’ve had his unsettling surroundings to worry about. We’ve now got a different but similarly unsettling environment to evaluate.

The Bad

We’ve established that Claypool has deserved more credit based on his production, but his value is still lacking due to his surroundings. The first question we have to answer is whether we believe the Bears' offense is a clear upgrade over the Pittsburgh offense. Most people will agree Justin Fields is an objectively better quarterback than Kenny Pickett. This trade comes at a unique time where we aren’t sure if the Bears have completely taken the training wheels off of Fields or if we’re being bamboozled. A couple of weeks ago, we’d look at Chicago’s league-low passing attempts and cringe.

It was a difficult decision as to whether we’d put the trade in the good column or the bad column. Over the past few weeks, we’ve seen Fields put together some heroic efforts for fantasy purposes, but he’s still averaging just over 23 attempts per game. Furthermore, it isn’t as if Fields has the worst receiving corps in the league. Darnell Mooney is a quality receiver in his own right and has managed just 25 receptions through seven games. While we are seeing newfound success out of the offense, we aren’t necessarily seeing a change of philosophy. One could argue to the contrary in that Matt Eberflus now has confirmation that his ground-and-pound approach can work with Fields at the helm.

Fields has not been able to support even one fantasy-relevant receiver. We’d like to believe that he could support multiple options given his level of talent, but it remains to be seen if he will ever get the opportunity to try. Fields has not attempted more than 30 passes in a single game, even with multiple blowout losses under his belt. It’s hard to imagine anything will change with the addition of Claypool.

Conclusion

Chase Claypool was not as bad as we remembered in his second year, and his current season is difficult to evaluate, given the switch to rookie Kenny Pickett. He’s likely been one of a long list of players to fall victim to double counting. Dynasty managers remember what they thought of him entering the draft, then the immediate satisfaction he gave them in his rookie year. When he failed to continue that upwards trajectory, it was easy to start to nitpick negative parts of his game that were already baked into his value.

He certainly earns a bit of a ranking bump on talent alone. What we’ve discussed over the past few weeks is that talent is only a portion of what makes up a player’s value. I’m calling the trade a net neutral. His quarterback situation is dramatically improved, but Fields has not shown the ability to support a single viable receiver in this offense. I’m doubting that will changes with the Claypool trade.

Ultimately Claypool ends up with a small value boost independent of his recent trade. The Bears are going to need to pick up the pass rate if we’re ever going to see Darnell Mooney and Chase Claypool thrive. Given Fields' recent success in an offense that he has compared to that of the Baltimore Ravens, we’re likely left to dream of what could have been.