Each week in Cutting Through the Noise, we will take an objective look at one of the most polarizing players in Dynasty Fantasy Football as decided by the Footballguys Dynasty Discord. We will use the Footballguys consensus rankings to gauge where the player is currently valued.
| Rank | Player | Team | Rank | Player | Team |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Drake London | Atl | 30 | Michael Pittman | Ind |
| 22 | Austin Ekeler | LAC | 31 | DK Metcalf | Sea |
| 23 | Jalen Hurts | Phi | 32 | Joe Mixon | Cin |
| 24 | Davante Adams | LV | 33 | Najee Harris | Pit |
| 25 | Tyreek Hill | Mia | 34 | Joe Burrow | Cin |
| 26 | Nick Chubb | Cle | 35 | Travis Kelce | KC |
| 27 | Ken Walker | Sea | 36 | Kyler Murray | Ari |
| 28 | Chris Olave | NO | 37 | Garrett Wilson | NYJ |
| 29 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | Det |
Chris Olave
WR13 and Overall No. 28
Chris Olave was a strong producer throughout his four years at Ohio State University but failed to truly shine due to the who’s who of NFL starters that came through the Buckeyes’ locker room at the same time. Olave competed with the likes of Terry McLaurin, Parris Campbell, Garrett Wilson, Jameson Williams, and future star Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Despite the competition for touches, Olave managed to rack up 2702 yards on 175 catches and scored 35 touchdowns. All of these receivers benefited from Justin Fields' stellar play. In 2021 C.J. Stroud took over at quarterback as a freshman and helped Olave finish his college career with his best season yet. He entered the NFL coming off his best season with 65 catches for 936 yards and 13 touchdowns.
Olave was projected to be drafted anywhere from the Top 10 to the bottom of the first round, but he had a couple of former teammates standing in his way. Garrett Wilson was pushing to be the top wide receiver drafted, while Jameson Williams figured to fall in the same range as Olave, even coming off a fresh ACL injury. While Olave prepped for the NFL draft, the New Orleans Saints were mortgaging their future. When it was all said and done, the Saints spent two third-rounders, a fourth-rounder, a 2023 first-rounder, and a 2024 second-rounder for the 11th-overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. At the time, just about everyone figured the pick was for Drew Brees’ replacement, but ultimately the selection was Olave, just one pick behind Wilson and one pick before Williams.
Through six games, Olave has 32 receptions for 495 yards and two touchdowns.
The Good
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Chris Olave is 10th in the NFL in yards and 1st among rookies. He’s 20th in target share with 56 targets. Only 33 of them have been deemed catchable, which is just one more than his total receptions on the year. Olave has found himself in the history books despite inconsistent play from multiple below-average quarterbacks. In the offseason, Jameis Winston signed a two-year contract to start with the Saints. He was injured in Week 3, which resulted in Andy Dalton taking over. Aside from Week 7’s performance, Dalton has been underwhelming as well.
For fantasy purposes, Olave has been an every-week starter with multiple top-12 finishes. He’s now been targeted 13 or more times in half of his games. He’s also third in the league in air yards leading us to believe the more rapport he builds with his quarterback, the higher the ceiling is going to get. It seems ludicrous, but Olave has just scratched the surface of what his opportunity share may allow him to do. The only thing we’re left to wonder is how much of this holds true when Jarvis Landry and/or Michael Thomas return.
The Bad
The first question is “Who cares about a couple of old wide receivers? This is dynasty.’ While that may be true, we need to know that Olave demands the incredible target share he’s currently earning. Thomas will almost definitely be on the team for the next two seasons, as his cap hit would be egregious should he be released. Landry is on a one-year deal and will most likely not be with the team. Olave played the first three weeks of the season with both Thomas and Landry healthy. He was targeted 13 times in two of those games. The fact that Olave is producing so well without Landry and Thomas only lands in the “bad” column because we’ve got a small sample size. Given what he’s done thus far, Olave will surely check this box when the entire receiving corps is healthy.
The next concern is the more serious of the two. What on earth do the Saints intend to do at quarterback? Jameis Winston is under contract in 2023 with a significant dead cap of $11M. At the time of the signing, he was most likely considered to be the bridge quarterback for the team to draft a rookie. As you may remember, the Saints used their 2023 first-round pick in that multi-trade effort to move up for Olave. In an epic display of irony, the pick the team used to draft Olave could’ve been the pick they needed to make the most of Olave’s rookie contract.
The post-Brees and post-Sean Payton Saints are a ship without a rudder. The only quarterback they have under contract next year is currently benched for the veteran backup they signed. As discussed in this week’s episode of Dynasty Newsletter, we have to decide how much of a player’s value is created independently and how much is attached to his environment. Olave is putting the equation to the test as he has produced under many of the worst situations you could have for a rookie.
Conclusion
It was difficult to put together a “Bad” section for Chris Olave as none of these negatives have affected him. He’s had a 147-yard performance with Jameis Winston, who has just been benched. He’s had 106 yards with Andy Dalton, who is not a top-32 quarterback at this point. Both performances came on the back of 13 or more targets. He’s been targeted 13 or more times with and without a healthy wide receiver corps. Olave has had to deal with some of the toughest situations you could put a rookie in, and it has not mattered even a smidge.
Many felt Olave was the most pro-ready prospect in this draft. There has been zero evidence to the contrary. He’s handled his team’s ups and downs like a true veteran. I’ve got Olave ranked third among rookie wide receivers but could easily sway myself here. Garrett Wilson is my top wide receiver and was top-five in market share for a short time before getting eliminated by the play of Zach Wilson. Drake London is my second wide receiver who is top-10 in target share but can’t manage to put together more than one flex-worthy performance. We’re at a fork in the road here where we need to decide if Olave is Wilson’s equal, or is he Jaylen Waddle’s equal? With one-third of the season complete, I am leaning toward the ladder.