Cutting Through the Noise, Week 5

Each week in Cutting Through the Noise, we will take an objective look at one of the most polarizing players in Dynasty Fantasy Football as decided by the Footballguys Dynasty Discord. We will use the Footballguys consensus rankings to gauge where the player is currently valued.

JaMarr chase

WR2 and Overall No. 3

In 2019 LSU trotted out the most prolific offense the NCAA has ever seen. The team was led by future NFL star Joe Burrow, who passed for 5,671 yards and 60 touchdowns. Burrow was not the only dynasty-relevant player on that team. Seven members of that offense are currently in the NFL. Burrow, Justin Jefferson, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire were all drafted in the first round of the 2020 Draft, but perhaps the best of the bunch stayed in school.

JaMarr Chase caught 20 of Burrow's 50 touchdowns. While he did not lead the team in receptions, he did break the SEC record for most receiving yards with 1,780. He was widely considered the best prospect in the nation, even ahead of his teammate Justin Jefferson. He capped off his historic season by winning the Biletnikoff award for the nation's top receiver. Chase was the next in line to inherit the "best receiver prospect since" title until the 2020 season hit. Many players decided to opt out due to concerns surrounding the pandemic. Chase was one of those players. NFL front offices struggled to handle the pre-draft process with an entire season missed since some players' final performances.

Chase did not participate in the NFL combine but ran a 4.34 second 40-yard-dash at his pro day. He was drafted with the fifth overall pick by the Cincinnati Bengals. He rejoined the quarterback who helped him cement his name in FBS history. Chase became a meme not once but twice before live-game action. First, he was the butt of a joke involving the drafting of Penie Sewell in his stead, as Burrow could not possibly get the ball to Chase quickly enough to avoid a sack. Next, Chase threw the media a softball by admitting his alarming drop rate was due to the lack of stripes on an NFL football. It's safe to say Chase silenced the critics rather quickly.

The Good

Just two short seasons after winning the Biletnikoff award over Justin Jefferson, JaMarr Chase took another one of his accolades. Jefferson set the NFL Rookie record for receiving yards with 1,400. His record stood for exactly one year until Chase arrived on the scene. Chase followed up a rocky off-season with 81 receptions for 1455 yards and 13 touchdowns. He was top-5 in receiving yards, receiving touchdowns, receptions over 20 yards, and receptions over 40 yards. The list of accomplishments for Chase could run a mile, but he simply could not have had a better start to his NFL career.

Chase was quickly vaulted to the top of every dynasty ranking. With the importance surrounding elite receivers at the time, there was no wonder. Only one running back was able to fend off both Chase and Jefferson for the top spot, and that was Jonathan Taylor. With Taylor's injury and lack of production thus far in 2022, it is safe to crown one of the aforementioned receivers as Dynasty's top player. The question this article poses is not whether Chase is amazing or not. Rather, is Chase the best option in all of Dynasty, and is he still worth trading for?

The Bad

This week is unique in that we all understand the player is perhaps the most valuable in all of Dynasty. With the current lack of running back competition at the top of drafts, is Chase worth the first overall pick over Jefferson? Whether that answer is yes or no, is he worth what it would take to trade for him?

Through four games, Jefferson leads Chase in receptions and receiving yards. They are tied in touchdowns. While both players have already produced remarkable ceiling games, they've had concerning floors as well. The difference between the two players is going to remain marginal for the duration of their careers. The added bonus of age in Chase's favor is largely irrelevant for wide receivers. The question then becomes, what is the difference?

Chase is attached to a younger and much more talented quarterback. The Vikings rank 9th in pass rate over expectation, while the Bengals rank 10th. Both offenses have high-profile running backs under contract. They both have Sean McVay disciples calling plays, while one could argue Kevin O'Connell is already the better option over Zac Taylor. The only clear difference that could have us leaning toward Jefferson would have to be Chase's target competition.

While target competition is a largely overrated argument, we have to split hairs here before getting to the bigger picture. Chase and Jefferson are the two best receivers in the NFL, but Tee Higgins does not lag far behind. Higgins is currently leading the Bengals in receiving yards, tied with Chase in touchdowns, and is just behind him in receptions. He also missed game time with a concussion. One could argue that an offensive weapon like Higgins helps put Chase in scoring opportunities more often, but what is not for debate is that there will be times when Higgins is outright better than perhaps the best wide receiver in the league.

Conclusion

JaMarr Chase is my second-highest-ranked wide receiver behind Justin Jefferson, but the value for each is roughly the same. Chase would be an incredible option to build around, but at what cost? If a team is rebuilding, they would want a young superstar like Chase, but the price to trade for him would be detrimental to the rebuild. If a team is competing, they would want the weekly production that Chase provides, but they could find that cheaper in an older option like Cooper Kupp or Davante Adams. So who is the target market for a trade involving Chase?

A trade for Chase would require at least three 2023 first-round picks and a productive young player in the range of Garrett Wilson. He is certainly worth that price, but what team can afford that trade while still executing a sound rebuild or winning a championship? I say none. If you drafted Chase in 2021, congratulations. You drafted one of the best receivers in the NFL for the next decade. If you're someone who has fear of missing out on Chase and want to trade for a young cornerstone at receiver, I recommend targeting Tee Higgins or Jaylen Waddle instead.