I’m too excited about the holiday week. The Thanksgiving slate gives us time to tilt through football with family members instead of on our couches alone. However, it always feels worth it, coasting into the long weekend. But before we start smoking turkeys and debating on which sides are the best, I’ve got three lessons from Week 11 to consider before making roster moves on Thursday.
Quarterback: Lamar Jackson, Ravens
Week 11 Results: (Projected) 21.8, (Actual) 15.5
I partially project a quarterback’s fantasy success by the opposing offense they’ll face. A weak offense on the other side should give my passer more chances at scoring. So, when I saw Lamar Jackson squaring off against Baker Mayfield, I saw a top-6 finish in Jackson’s range of outcomes. Baltimore’s defense had improved with their in-season trades, and Mark Andrews was back in the lineup. Jackson’s 15.5 points aren’t necessarily an anchor on your squad. And, after a closer look at the matchup, it’s not surprising to see his day played out as it did.
Advice Moving Forward:
You’re still starting Jackson, but his ceiling (not floor) becomes matchup-dependent. However, his playoff schedule makes him a top option to close out the season.
The Ravens’ passing game isn’t a “run-first” or an “efficient” passing game. It’s a “Lamar, go do cool stuff” scheme. Any offense relying on Demarcus Robinson, who was the *sixth* option at his previous stop, requires a lot from their quarterback. And in most cases, Jackson delivers with ease.
He’s fifth in big-time throw rate while under pressure. Jackson is second in designed rushing attempts and yards on those plays. Few other quarterbacks can match his skills through the air and on the ground except for in one area: when he absolutely has to pass.
Third and fourth downs are “pure passing situations.” Or, put another way, situations with the highest chance of a pass occurring. And here, the former MVP struggles. He’s 16th in EPA per play and 19th in success rate, which has happened throughout the entire season. Now throw the Panthers into the mix.
After firing Matt Rhule in Week 5, the Panthers are one of three teams in the Top 10 for dropback and rushing EPA allowed on third and fourth downs. Despite their problems on offense, they’re a tough out on defense. And Jackson saw it first-hand on Sunday as the Ravens struggled at 25.5 yards per drive. Their season average is 35.5. We just need weaker secondaries for Jackson to thrive.
It looks bleak, but the schedule opens up for Baltimore. They’ll face Jacksonville after their bye, but the Jaguars gave up 280.7 yards and 2.3 touchdowns per game over the three games heading into the break. Jackson will also see Atlanta in the fantasy playoffs. With a depleted pass-catching group, down weeks are possible, but Jackson’s rushing should give him a top-12 floor each week.
Running Back: Kareem Hunt, Browns
Week 11 Results: (Projected) 8.8, (Actual) 7.4
I’m terrible at constructing GPP lineups in DFS. My thought process is too linear. But I thought I had it on Sunday for the Bills-Browns game. Folks were targeting the various Buffalo options, but I had my sights set on Kareem Hunt as a bring back.
All offseason, the justification for Hunt’s mid-round ADP was his standalone value and contingent usage. If Nick Chubb gets hurt, Hunt vaults into the top-12 discussion. But also, negative game scripts or passing situations benefitted Hunt, given his receiving skill set. So, even if the Bills were off their normal rhythm, they’d put the Browns into a heavy-passing script throughout the game. I nailed the game environment but not the beneficiary.
Advice Moving Forward
Hunt isn’t even a flex option. He’s an emergency stash in the event of injury, forcing more volume on him.
Cleveland’s been in a negative game script (down by ten or more points) in five games this season. Week 4 against Atlanta was our first data point. And it supported our priors on Hunt as he earned 13 touches in the failed comeback effort. But there was hope for continuing to roster him. I’ve lost all confidence since.
Hunt hasn’t played 50.0% of the snaps since Week 1 and has seen double-digit touches once since Week 5. Even in negative game scripts, he’s not involved. The Falcons’ game was the only time Chubb and Hunt’s workloads met our expectations. Now, even while behind, Hunt remains just another player on the squad.
Fantasy managers may have been holding onto Hunt as an emergency flex option. However, his usage is neither projectable nor a boost to our roster. Hunt retains the same value as the other high-priority backups unless the offense shifts once Deshaun Watson returns.
Wide Receiver: Treylon Burks, Titans
Week 11 Results: (Projected) 7.6, (Actual) 18.1
I messed up. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine’s big game in Week 10 blinded me from the truth. I looked at the boxscores, saw the usage, and assumed things would continue.
Westbrook-Ikhine was the team’s primary slot man over his last four games with Ryan Tannehill under center. The Titans are bottom 3 in pass rate over expectation, both defenses they would face were top 12 in EPA per play allowed, and Tannehill would need an outlet. The third-year receiver’s role and usage made sense, but Treylon Burks was there the whole time.
Advice Moving Forward:
Treat Burks as the team’s WR1. Robert Woods and the tight ends may take away passing touchdowns, but the rookie’s floor is a high-end WR3.
I tried to reverse engineer Westbrook-Ikhine’s big day but didn’t fully dive into the underlying usage for all of Tennessee’s receivers. In Burks’s first game back, he only had 24 receiving yards. I excused the lack of production as he was working his way back into the offense. But his peripheral stats were encouraging enough to make Week 11’s outburst less of a shock.
Burks was second in targets per route run despite being third amongst the wide receivers in target share. If Burks was on the field, Tannehill was looking for him. So, as Westbrook-Ikhine stayed in the slot, Burks played a larger role downfield with his highest aDOT for the season. If the Titans drafted Burks to be their A.J. Brown replacement, we saw the signs they’re willing to use him in this fashion. And Burks capitalized on the opportunity.
Robert Woods and the tight ends will be a nuisance in the red zone. Derrick Henry will continue to get his on the ground. But Burks will continue to be an overall primary option in the passing game. The low volume won’t push him into the top-24 discussion, but his floor is a high-end WR3 for the rest of the season.