Sunday Showdown Week 14

Photo: USA Today Sports

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage, and uniqueness. A swing pass to the third-string fullback can heavily alter the leader boards. Showdown can be a fun way to enjoy a Prime-Time game, or it can be an entire DFS portfolio. No matter the reason for playing, fortune favors the bold, and this article will never tell you a player is off-limits; even the third-string fullback. There are some cases where a great play will be so highly owned that their upside isn't worth losing the opportunity to be contrarian by fading them.

This article is going to have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting with the Captain having a salary premium to correspond with the scoring premium. On FanDuel, the pricing is the same for both MVP and flex, so just play either a quarterback or running back in that spot. There are scenarios where a wide receiver can pay off, but it’s difficult with it being the 0.5 per reception.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head lineups use median projections but a little variation goes a long way towards not getting duplicated.

Game Strategy

NFC North show downs were once must-see-tv, but these are not the Bears of old. Aaron Rodgers owns this division; just ask him. Justin Fields is still learning the ropes, and Matt Nagy likely has one foot out the door. Chicago’s hardships are baked into the spread, with Green Bay favored by 12.5. The Packers are most likely going to run the Bears out the door, but it is difficult to put a pin in exactly how they will do it. Their receivers are difficult to trust, outside of Davante Adams. AJ Dillion has finally settled into the Jamaal Williams role, playing 1B to Aaron Jones. The obscurity makes this slate fun. Although Chicago is projected to lose by 12.5 points with a relatively low total, they are still viable because Green Bay lacks bankable production outside of Adams, and Jones.

Captain Consideration

1. Davante Adams
2. Aaron Rodgers
3. Aaron Jones
4. A.J. Dillon
5. David Montgomery
6. Justin Fields
7. Allen Robinson

Bears Offense

Quarterback

Justin Fields $9,800 - Captain or Flex

Justin Fields is returning to action one week after Andy Dalton tossed four interceptions. Fields has had some solid fantasy outings, boosted by rushing production, but his rushing upside could be limited in his first week back from bruised ribs. He has also taken multiple sacks in all but two games this season. He should be passing early, and often, but it is difficult to trust Nagy to put together a reasonable game-plan at this point. Fields is still a decent option from an ownership, and price standpoint.

Running Back

David Montgomery $10,000 – Captain or Flex

David Montgomery is one week removed from a nine-target game, which is his career high, and a clear outlier. If those targets were representative of future usage, he would in a great position as a 12.5 point underdog, to get plenty of passing work. Either way, Montgomery is set up to see a plethora of usage regardless of game script. He has averaged over 21 touches since returning in week 11.

Receiver

Allen Robinson $6,200 – Captain or Flex

Allen Robinson is set to return to action this week. He has had quite a rough year on the franchise tag, but he is likely to go under-owned on this slate. He should see an above-average amount of targets with negative game script for most of the game. If ever a time to load up on a star receiver in Showdown, it would be after everyone else has given up on him for the year.

Darnell Mooney $8,400 – Flex

Darnell Mooney is projected roughly 4 points more than Robinson. He is also likely to see a slightly higher target share, though both should see above 20%. With so many question marks around the Green Bay receivers, it is viable to stack both Robinson, and Mooney with Fields, with the hope that Robinson returns to form post-injury.

Cole Kmet $5,200 – Flex

For all the questions with the Green Bay receivers, the Bears are relatively straightforward. Robinson, Mooney, and Cole Kmet could all see roughly 20% of the targets. Kmet happens to be the cheapest, and potentially the least owned. Kmet saw 7, and 11 targets with Dalton, but he has not scored a single touchdown on the year. He is another Bears receiver who can be played at low ownership with the “positive regression” narrative.

Other Targets

Jakeem Grant Sr. $2,800 - Flex

Jakeem Grant played on 63% of the snaps in week 13. He had 7 targets with 5 receptions, and 62 yards to go along with a touchdown. While last week was clearly an outlier performance, there is no reason to believe he will not see similar snaps while playing in a similar game script. Robinson will be back, so a few opportunities should be taken from Grant, but at $2,800 he is still worth the dart throw.

Khalil Herbert $1,400 – Flex

Khalil Herbert played on 29% of the snaps in week 13. He has been given 4 rushing attempts in each of the last two games and was targeted once last week. For $1,400, 5 touches are plenty to warrant plugging him in the lineup, with the hope that he can break off a solid gain. He has shown the ability to make splash plays in his multiple starts.

Packers Offense

Quarterback

Aaron Rodgers $12,000 – Captain or Flex

Aaron Rodgers is projected 2 points less than Adams, and 4 points more than anyone else on this slate. Stacking Adams, and Rodgers is a no-brainer. Where to go from there is the most important question on the slate. If ownership is not a factor, then it would make the most sense to stack at least 3 Packers pass catchers with Rodgers. Sometimes using a running back in a stack as a pass-catcher can provide leverage, but that is not likely with Jones being so popular. Marquez Valdes-Scantling is too expensive, and no other option has a target share above 10% on the season. It may be best to stack Rodgers with Jones or Adams and get as unique as possible with the rest of the lineup.

Running Back

Aaron Jones $10,600 – Captain or Flex

In week 12 Jones played on 49% of the snaps with AJ Dillion taking the other 51%. He rushed 10 times and saw 1 target. Fortunately for Jones, he has had two weeks of rest coming out of the bye-week to go along with that low-usage game. Ideally, Jones sees less than normal ownership because of Week 12’s running back split and goes back to his full workload in week 14 after getting healthy. Both running backs are viable in Green Bay stacks, especially without Adams.

A.J. Dillon $4,400 – Captain or Flex

A.J. Dillon’s week 12 workload is probably not likely to continue with Jones healthy. He will likely settle in closer to Jamaal Williams’ average snap share from last year of around 40%. Even with a reduced role going forward, he is still a viable option at just $4,400, even at Captain. He can be played in lineups with Jones, similar to how Browns games should be approached with Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb.

Receiver

Davante Adams $11,600 - Captain or Flex

Davante Adams has a 32% target share on the year, which is indicative of the state of the rest of the receiver corps for the Packers. He has averaged over 10 targets a game over the last 4 games, and unlike most receivers, he is just as viable in positive game-script. He is notoriously high-owned on showdown slates, but his points are very difficult to replace. If he is over 70% owned, he is worth excluding from a handful of lineups, but his 21.2 point projection on a slate starved of viable production makes him hard to pass up. It will be important to get unique in lineups with Adams and Rodgers. Adams and Jones can be played in lineups without Rodgers, similarly to how Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce can be in winning lineups without Patrick Mahomes II.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling $7,200 – Flex

Marquez Valdes-Scantling is the only other receiver active for the Packers who has a target share above 10%. Unfortunately, he doesn’t often make good on his targets. He has been targeted 19 times in the past two weeks, with only 8 receptions. He managed to turn his 4 targets into 123 yards, and a touchdown in week 11, but in week 12 he caught another 4 passes for just 50 yards. He is the definition of boom-or-bust, which is usually great for showdown, except if he is highly owned.

Allen Lazard $4,800 – Flex

Allen Lazard is the primary benefactor to Randall Cobb missing this game. He is arguable the most talented receiver outside of Adams, and he is likely less owned than Valdes-Scantling at $2,400 less. In week 12 he had a 65% snap share, with 6 targets, though he only caught 2 of them for 13 yards.

Other Targets -

Josiah Deguara $2,600 – Flex

Josiah Deguara has stepped in for the injured Robert Tonyan Jr and has had at least one solid fantasy outing while averaging 3 targets a game. With Rodgers being so difficult to stack it may be best to stick to the least owned options in the offense. Deguara and Lazard fit well in lineups that feature highly owned players like Adams, Rodgers, and Jones.