Another year, another even deeper group of quarterbacks to draft from (have you tried superflex/2QB yet?). That doesn’t mean that waiting at quarterback is the right answer, as the latest crop of elite fantasy quarterbacks continues to set the scoring bar higher, lowering the value of replacement-level production that is always available in the late rounds or on the waiver wire. This year’s quarterback picture is muddied by two uncertain elite quarterback situations that could, in turn, affect other uncertain boom/bust quarterback situations. What does the quarterback landscape look like this year?
Elite QB1
Patrick Mahomes II, KC **Avoid at ADP**
Kyler Murray, ARI
Josh Allen, BUF
Lamar Jackson, BAL **Target at ADP**
This group is four deep with not very much separation between one and four, making the strategy angle easy. Just try to take the QB4. This will be easier to pull off if you have a mid-round draft slot.
Superflex/2QB Tip: Be willing to spend your first-round pick on any of this group.
Scoring Tip: Mahomes and Allen get bumps in leagues with 5 or 6 points per passing touchdown, yardage bonuses, long touchdown bonuses, or efficiency.
Mahomes is still the gold standard and could be improved if the overhauled offensive line exorcises the memories of a miserable Super Bowl against the Buccaneers' vicious defense. However, he’s still not worth taking a round or more earlier than the other elite fantasy quarterbacks.
Murray was running away with the QB1 distinction before hurting his shoulder in Week 11 vs. Seattle. Does that mean he’s a value as the likely QB1 if he can stay healthy, or that he is likely to experience a dropoff in scoring and effectiveness when you need him the most because of the incompatibility between his size and his willingness to run? Murray will also benefit from his first full offseason in the NFL after only fully committing to football in 2019.
It’s difficult to shake the feeling that just about everything went right for Allen last year. 2020 probably represents his peak, and the team could be looking to put more effort into the running game after it was non-existent at times last year. He’s the easiest of the top five quarterbacks to pass on.
Jackson got a boost with the addition of Sammy Watkins, Rashod Bateman, and Tylan Wallace to the wide receiver room. He’ll gain back stud left tackle Ronnie Stanley but lost the player who admirably replaced Stanley last year after holding down right tackle, Orlando Brown. The first half of the year was difficult for Jackson, and he should be improved after coming on in the second half of the year.
Prescott is fully healed from his heartbreaking ankle injury last year. He was on pace to be the QB1 last year but was aided by a terrible defense that gave him desperation come from behind game scripts. We haven’t gotten the chance to see him perform with Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, and Michael Gallup with Tyron Smith, La’el Collins, and Zack Martin all healthy, which is what the Cowboys hope they can roll out in Week 1 against the World Champion Buccaneers.
Strong QB1
Russell Wilson, SEA
Tom Brady, TB **Target at ADP**
Aaron Rodgers, GB
Dak Prescott, DAL
Matthew Stafford, LAR **Target at ADP**
Justin Herbert, LAC **Avoid at ADP**
None of these quarterbacks have the rushing potential of Murray, Allen, or Jackson, and it would take a truly best-case scenario for them to rival Mahomes or Prescott’s passing numbers. Still, they have the potential to be closer to the top five than ADP suggests.
8/26 UPDATE: Prescott has moved down to the middle of this tier because of uncertainty about his shoulder.
Superflex/2QB Tip: Be willing to take quarterbacks from this group over any RB/WR/TE except the top five running backs and Travis Kelce, especially if you didn’t take a quarterback in Round 1.
Scoring Tip: The gap between the top five and this group is smaller in leagues with yardage and distance touchdown bonuses and efficiency (attempt/completion) scoring.
Wilson fell off of a cliff in the second half last year and lost the trust of fantasy players (again). Still, the Seahawks traded for a top-notch offensive lineman (Gabe Jackson), hired a passing game coordinator to run the offense (Shane Waldron - Rams), drafted a receiver with their first pick (Western Michigan’s DWayne Eskridge in the second round), and worked up speeding up their tempo in the spring, all good signs that they are going to let Russ cook again.
Brady was playing with a knee injury that was surgically repaired this offseason, and he was adjusting to new teammates without the benefit of a full offseason. There’s reason to believe he can be better than last year when he threw 40 touchdowns and over 4600 yards.
Rodgers is set to play this year, likely his final in Green Bay, after an offseason drama that amounted to nothing but a few concessions for the future Hall of Famer. He is unlikely to reproduce the career year he posted in 2020 but is still a suitable QB1 with a high weekly floor.
Stafford will get the best opportunity of his career to go to a Super Bowl and win the MVP in his first season under Sean McVay. He’ll have the benefit of McVay’s schematic advantages. Still, the offensive line and thin backfield could be weaknesses in the offense. However, Cam Akers injury could increase Stafford’s volume enough to overcome any losses in efficiency because the offense becomes unbalanced.
Herbert is a strong contender to be the sixth quarterback off of the board. He could join the top five playing behind an improved offensive line if he meshes with new offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi’s scheme, but he slowed down as the season went on and could come back to earth a bit this year.
Mystery QB1
Jalen Hurts, PHI
Deshaun Watson, HOU(?)
This section could be obsolete by the time I finish typing it. Feel free to take Hurts as your QB1 or Watson as your QB2, but also have a plan if they aren’t available for your fantasy team. All have upside to exceed ADP investment.
2QB/Superflex Tip: Each in this group makes good QB2 picks, but they also expose your team to critical failure as QB1s.
Scoring Tip: Hurts takes a hit in leagues with 5- or 6-point passing touchdowns, score yardage, and distance bonuses or efficiency, while Rodgers gets a bump in those formats.
Hurts’ running ability gives him the upside to score with the top five in any given week, and his weapons and offensive line will be a lot better than last year, but the rug could be pulled out from under him at any time via a trade for Deshaun Watson.
Watson’s situation got a little clearer when he reported to camp, and the NFL doesn’t appear inclined to discipline him or put him on the commissioner’s exempt list at this time. Is that enough of an assurance for the Eagles, Dolphins, or Broncos to trade for him? If not, will the Texans start him in Week 1? He’s set to be a massive fantasy value if he plays most or fall of the season, and his ADP is already trending up. Still, this is a volatile mess that could change at any moment.
Boom/Bust QB1/QB2
Ryan Tannehill, TEN
Carson Wentz, IND **Target at ADP**
Ryan Fitzpatrick, WAS **Target at ADP**
Trevor Lawrence, JAX
This group can allow you to hang with teams that took quarterbacks earlier in some, but not all, weeks. They could level off as QB1 options and outproduce ADP enough to help you win in one-quarterback leagues as long as you locked in advantages elsewhere but are more useful as strong QB2s in 2QB/Superflex leagues.
8/26 UPDATE: Wentz is on track to start Week 1 and still belongs in this tier.
2QB/Superflex Tip: Fitzpatrick is a great QB2 as long as you have the room to carry Taylor Heinicke on your bench. Wentz is also a value QB2 at ADP.
Scoring Tip: Lawrence should give teams a nice rushing boost as long as Tim Tebow doesn’t make the team. Tannehill gets a bump in leagues that reward efficiency.
Tannehill will be in the best version of the Titans offense yet, although he will be running plays called by Todd Downing this year with Arthur Smith now the head coach of the Falcons. If the defense is still suspect, he could be consistent enough to trust as an every-week play.
Wentz should have his confidence back reunited with Frank Reich, who oversaw a lot of his success with Philadelphia. He’ll also have a better offensive line and set of weapons than he had last year. A return to low QB1 scoring shouldn’t surprise anyone.
UPDATE: Until we know whether Wentz will have foot surgery and how long he will be out, take him off of your 1QB draft board.
Fitzpatrick has been a low QB1 in worse situations than the 2021 Washington offense. He could lose his job to Taylor Heinicke if he has a few turnover-fests in a row. But he could also create numbers far beyond expectations for a modest investment with Scott Turner calling plays and an excellent set of weapons in Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel, Logan Thomas, Antonio Gibson, and J.D. McKissic.
Lawrence is going to improve the Jaguars passing game greatly and adds a lot as a runner. Still, Urban Meyer’s offenses were notoriously run-heavy at Ohio State while Tim Tebow looms as a Taysom Hill-esque goal-line vulture and head coach fascination.
High Floor QB1/QB2
Joe Burrow, CIN
Burrow wasn’t that exciting outside of his games vs. Cleveland. He has a higher floor week-to-week than Tannehill and Lawrence and a higher season-long floor than Wentz and Fitzpatrick. Still, with an improved offensive line and reunion with JaMarr Chase - along with an amazing recovery from a catastrophic knee injury to be on the field in OTAs - he could be a lot more exciting this year.
2QB/Superflex Tip: Burrow is slightly overdrafted compared to his peers when being taken as a QB2, which is a spot where the upside is more important than the floor.
Scoring Tip: Burrow gets an extra boost in leagues that score completions.
Good Things Come to Those Who Wait
Justin Fields, CHI
Trey Lance, SF
Fields is first because Jimmy Garoppolo has a better chance of lasting for most of the season than Andy Dalton. Both of these rookies could (should?) start at some point, and they should be in the QB1 mix once they do regardless of the quality of play, much in the same way Jalen Hurts is. ADP reflects their upside, so the bargains we’ve gotten on rookie quarterbacks like Cam Newton and Robert Griffin III won’t be available. Both - or either - are essential picks if you eschew taking a top-10 quarterback for a late-round quarterback team build instead.
8/26 UPDATE: Fields is probably closer to starting than Lance, but nothing about the summer should make you less excited to draft them.
2QB/Superflex Tip: Going with Fields or Lance as your QB2 and then following up with a cheap high floor option like Ben Roethlisberger, Derek Carr, or Jared Goff builds upside into your lineup equal to teams that took two quarterbacks early.
Scoring Tip: Fields and Lance are better options in leagues with four-point passing touchdowns, no distance/yardage/efficiency bonuses, and especially in leagues that award points for carries.
The Bears have made no indications that Fields will be in full competition with Dalton, but that could change quickly. At worst, Dalton is unlikely to survive the gauntlet of Tampa, San Francisco, and Pittsburgh Weeks 7-9, leading into a Week 10 bye. Fields has the ability to break off long runs, and he has an excellent deep arm and accuracy.
Lance is good enough to win the job in training camp, but if he doesn’t, Jimmy Garoppolo has a chance to hold it all year as long as the 49ers keep winning. We haven’t seen a good running quarterback in Kyle Shanahan’s offense since Robert Griffin III III’s rookie year, and he had a lot less to work with than Lance does.
Bye/Injury/Emergency QB1/Safe QB2
Kirk Cousins, MIN
Matt Ryan, ATL
Ben Roethlisberger, PIT **Target at ADP 2QB leagues**
Baker Mayfield, CLE
Derek Carr, LV
This is a boring tier for one-quarterback leagues but very useful in two-quarterback leagues for teams that wait to fill the slot. None of them will flirt with the top five because they lack running ability and a prime confluence of career arc and situation, but all will be high floor weekly options with occasional ceiling games.
2QB/Superflex Tip: Waiting for one of these names as your QB2 can help you if you successfully build RB/WR/TE to your advantage over teams that take two quarterbacks early.
Scoring Tip: All of this tier is better in yardage/distance bonus leagues and leagues that score efficiency or award 5-6 points for passing touchdowns.
Cousins peaked last year as the Vikings defense nosedived, but his attempts should come down slightly if the defense improves this year. He can be used in 1QB leagues when the matchup is right, but tread with caution.
Ryan could benefit from Arthur Smith’s playcalling and the lack of an established running game, but he also has bust risk in his first season without Julio Jones.
Roethlisberger will be predictable and probably no longer stretch the field, but the Steelers offense should tilt pass-heavy again, and he has an excellent complement of receivers. The biggest question for him is staying upright and healthy behind a completely rebuilt offensive line.
Mayfield really seemed to get the Stefanski offense in the second half of the year, and the return of Odell Beckham will help him. But he still has a low volume weekly risk, especially with the improvement on defense.
Carr could be forced into a lot of pass-heavy game scripts, but he will be adjusting to new faces on the offensive line and has never been a strong fantasy overachiever.
Boom/Bust QB2
Tua Tagovailoa, MIA
Zach Wilson, NYJ
Sam Darnold, CAR
Daniel Jones, NYG
Good luck if you are counting on this tier. They each have the capacity to help you win with the athleticism and derring-do of a youngster learning his way in the NFL, and they can also cause your lineup to crash and burn. There’s a narrative for each to improve greatly this year, but we should only believe it when we start to see it - or at least see strong precursors of it coming out of camp and preseason.
2QB/Superflex Tip: You might find that your best RB/WR/TE flex is safer than a quarterback from this tier.
Scoring Tip: Be careful using players from this tier if your scoring system harshly penalizes turnovers.
The Dolphins committed to Tagovailoa by reuniting him with Jaylen Waddle and adding Will Fuller. He should be better prepared to play and healthier than he was last year, with a more seasoned offensive line and better playcalling and offensive design, but he has a long way to go to get to fantasy viability.
Wilson will certainly get to throw a lot in losing game scripts, and the Jets reinforced the wide receiver group and offensive line in the offseason. The #2 overall pick should benefit from installing a Kyle Shanahan offense under offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur. But the adjustment from BYU to the NFL could be a harsh one.
Darnold is out from under the thumb of Adam Gase and should be helped by Joe Brady’s offensive ideas, but there haven’t been too many signs that there is a lot there for Brady to salvage, so you shouldn’t draft him counting on every-week contributions - even in 2QB/Superflex.
Jones gained Kenny Golladay and first-round pick Kadarius Toney this offseason. However, the offensive line lost Kevin Zeitler and didn’t make any significant improvements, and Jones is still running the plays Jason Garrett calls.
Boom/Bust Projected Quarterback Battle Winners
Cam Newton, NE
We have to take a stand on who will win quarterback battles in our rankings. Newton’s magical last day of practice in the spring conjured up images of the Cam of old, so as long as he can recapture that in camp, he should get the first crack. New England is the toughest quarterback battle to call. Whoever wins should do better with a good offensive line and upgraded wide receiver and tight end rooms.
Low Ceiling Projected Quarterback Battle Winners
Teddy Bridgewater, DEN
Jameis Winston, NO
With three very winnable games (NYG JAX NYJ) to begin the season, the Broncos should be inclined to play it safe. Bridgewater is safer with the ball than Drew Lock, and he should be better than Lock at executing Pat Shurmur’s offense. Winston will be battling with Taysom Hill, but without Michael Thomas for at least some part of the year, the winner of this battle has lost some appeal.
The Cheapest Sure Starter
Jared Goff, DET
Goff could have some value in 2QB/Superflex but is off of our radar in one-quarterback leagues. He will have a good offensive line in front of him and favorable game scripts, which could give him some best-ball value as a third quarterback.
Boom/Bust Projected Quarterback Battle Losers
Taysom Hill, NO
Hill would have the most fantasy value of any quarterback in a starting job battle this summer, but he also has an uphill climb to win the job since his gadget plays would lose their impact if he became the starter. If indications start to come out of New Orleans that Hill will start, he’ll become a low QB1 for fantasy, similarly valued to Jalen Hurts.
Low Ceiling Projected Quarterback Battle Losers
Jones is the most credible possible winner of the three projected losers, and he was outplaying Newton for most of the spring before the reversal on the last day of OTAs. Lock had his chance to prove himself in the Shurmur offense last year, and all he got for his efforts is competition for the starting job.
Priority Backup QB2/Superflex Stash/Waiver Wire Speed Dial
Taylor Heinicke, WAS
Heinicke is a clear backup going into the season, although Washington would tell us that he can still win the starting job this summer. Ryan Fitzpatrick is reliable for a few spine-tingling moments and enough frustration to lose his starting job.
Keeping the Seat Warm
Jimmy Garoppolo, SF
Andy Dalton, CHI
Chances are both of these quarterbacks will start Week 1. But neither offers much more fantasy appeal than Jared Goff, and both are likely to lose their starting jobs sooner than later. They are only good for desperation QB2 picks when you get caught on the wrong side of runs in your Superflex/2QB draft.
Shrug
Tyrod Taylor, HOU
Davis Mills, HOU
Will Watson start? Will it be for Houston? This isn't easy to discern at the moment of this writing. If Watson doesn’t start Week 1, it will likely be Taylor, but the Texans will also want to see what the third-round pick Mills can do at some point this year if they are going forward without Watson. Taylor can actually flirt with low QB1 value because of his running ability and the likelihood of losing game scripts.
Other Backups Most Likely To Start a Game This Season
Marcus Mariota, LV
Mason Rudolph, PIT
Gardner Minshew, JAX
Joe Flacco, PHI
Jacoby Brissett, MIA
Nick Foles, CHI
Case Keenum, CLE
Keep this group on your 2QB/Superflex waiver wire watch list. Mariota, Minshew, Foles, and Keenum are candidates to get traded in-season if a team is desperate after losing their starter and don’t like their backup. Rudolph could see the field if Ben Roethlisberger can’t stay healthy in his age-39 season. Flacco and Brissett could see starting action if the unproven starters ahead of them falter.
