Monday Showdown Week 16

Photo: USA Today Sports

Disclaimer

These contests are intended to be fun as you’re watching the game. It’s incredibly difficult to get a real edge as there are so few options and in MME contests there are often many duplicate lineups. One play or one penalty can change the entire outcome of the game.

This article is going to have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision making process is more interesting with the Captain having a salary premium to correspond with the scoring premium. On FanDuel, the pricing is the same for both MVP and flex, so just play either a quarterback or running back in that spot. There are scenarios where a wide receiver can pay off, but it’s difficult with it being the 0.5 per reception.

Game Strategy

This week should be one that has a lot of uncertainty, which could lead to opportunities if you can nail the right players. The biggest uncertainty this week is how Ian Book will perform as the Saints starting quarterback. While it’s not a great sign that reports are that the Saints reached out to both Philip Rivers and Drew Brees, there is some optimism around Book based on his play at Notre Dame. The other massive question heading into this week is what the Dolphins are going to do at running back as Duke Johnson Jr had 22 carries last week and looked fantastic even with Myles Gaskin and Salvon Ahmed in the lineup. Who will get the carries is a huge factor for this week even though the Saints do have a very good run defense.

Captain Consideration:

1. Ian Book
2. Alvin Kamara
3. Jaylen Waddle
4. Duke Johnson Jr
5. Nick Vannett

Miami Dolphins

QUARTERBACK

Tua Tagovailoa- Flex

Outside of a two game stretch against Atlanta and Jacksonville, Tua has been primarily a low ceiling game manager as he has topped 250 yards just once in the other 8 games that he has played this season which was a 273 yard performance against the Jets. The Saints pass defense had their struggles early on in the season, but over the last several weeks have improved dramatically as they have faced Tom Brady, Dak Prescott, Zach Wilson, and Josh Allen over the last four weeks and held them to an average of 228 passing yards per game. On what looks to be a low scoring week, Tua is a fine flex play, but likely does not have the upside to be a captain this week.

Running Back/Wide Receiver/Tight End

Duke Johnson Jr- Captain Only

Duke is the play that you’re likely going to have to take a stand on this week as the Dolphins running back room is extremely crowded with Phillip Lindsay, Myles Gaskin, Salvon Ahmed and Johnson. However, it seems that with Johnson’s performance last week, that he has at least earned the first opportunity as he looked great last week with 22 carries albeit against the Jets, but was able to top 100 yards in his best game as a runner in his career. If you’re going to play Johnson, you likely have to do it at the captain position as it seems fairly binary regarding whether Johnson will pay off or not as at his price if he is able to get 15+ carries, he will pay off, but he’s facing a very strong run defense in New Orleans which could mean that there is non value to be had for any of these running backs.

Jaylen Waddle- Great Flex, Good Captain

Jaylen Waddle returns for the Dolphins after missing last week which should be great news for Miami. Waddle has been the Dolphins top target this season and has 8 or more receptions in four of his last five games. Waddle should also see an advantage this week as he will likely avoid Marshon Lattimore who will likely primarily be on DeVante Parker due to the size of Parker as well as Lattimore very rarely shifting down into the slot, so Waddle should have plenty of opportunities against Chauncey Gardner-Johnson this week. The Dolphins should take a similar game plan to the Buccaneers in trying to use Waddle similarly to Chris Godwin who had 140 yards and a touchdown back in Week 8 as Lattimore was defending Mike Evans.

Mike Gesicki- Good Flex

Gesicki has been a consistent tight end this season, but the problem for him has been touchdowns as he has just two on the season. The good news here however, is that Gesicki should be in line for some positive regression as he has the second most red zone targets on the team with 12 on the season. Gesicki doesn’t have the greatest ceiling as he has topped 20 DraftKings points just once this year, which likely means we need to consider him as a flex play who if he can get us 10-12 points receiving with the possibility of a touchdown at just $6,400, he is going to be a player that you are going to want to start this week. Malcolm Jenkins is also out which leaves a significant hole in the Saints secondary that Gesicki should be able to take advantage of.

OTHER TARGETS

DeVante Parker- Fade

Parker is a fade this week simply because of the matchup. He’s likely going to draw against Marshon Lattimore for a vast majority of this game which outside of a busted coverage is not something that we want to target especially with Jaylen Waddle’s return and Parker dropping back down the pecking order of the Dolphins wide receiving group. At $9,400 as a flex, he’s too expensive on this slate

New Orleans Saints

QUARTERBACK

Ian Book- Great Captain/Flex

This is an interesting play as it’s essentially relying on the data that we have on Book to determine how he is going to perform in his first NFL game. While Book’s passing numbers leave a lot to be desired, where he should be utilized in this game is in the rushing attack for the Saints. In his final season at Notre Dame, Book ran for 40 yards or more in 9 of his 10 final games including a 55 yard performance against Alabama in the College Football Playoff. Book ran a 4.59 40-yard dash at his Pro Day which indicates he should have more than enough speed to run in this game. Expect Book to be much closer to Taysom Hill than Trevor Siemian in this one as he likely will have some passing limitations especially with tackle Ryan Ramczyk out for this game. The only concern about Book’s rushing upside is that the Saints do not have another quarterback on the roster, so they may be cautious early on in the game that they do not get the quarterback injured as Alvin Kamara is the backup quarterback in this game.

Running Back/Wide Receiver/Tight End

Alvin Kamara- Great Captain/Flex

Alvin Kamara is a premiere option on this slate in what seemingly has very few sure things this week. While no player is a sure thing, the Saints should utilize Kamara heavily in this game in order to keep their playoff hopes alive at 7-7 on the season. Kamara was bottled up last week against the Buccaneers run defense in a 9-0 win in which neither offense had any success against the opponents vaunted defense, but prior to that game Kamara has topped 20 DraftKings points in four of his last five games while topping 25 in three of those contests. Kamara is also the backup quarterback on this slate, which if anything were to happen to Ian Book would just increase Kamara’s value. Book is used to throwing to running backs as his running backs caught 45 passes in his senior season at Notre Dame.

Nick Vannett- Flex/Punt Captain

This is a tricky one because we don’t know how Ian Book is going to do throwing the ball, but Vannett is the beneficiary of having both Adam Trautman and Juwan Johnson out for this game due to being on the Covid-19 list. At $1,000, Vannett becomes the top low-end option on this slate to provide some salary relief that will allow you to stack up the rest of your roster and spend up on an Alvin Kamara type player at the Captain spot this week. Over the last three weeks, Vannett has caught three passes in two of those games topping 40 yards in both contests, which if he could do this and maybe score a touchdown, he hits 13x value which immediately is the top captain on this slate. It’s extremely risky as his floor is 0, but he should have some involvement from Book who frequently targeted his tight ends at Notre Dame.

Marquez Callaway- Flex

Callaway is a boom or bust type player who is in a difficult matchup likely seeing Xavien Howard throughout the night, but he did see 9 targets last week as the Saints just don’t have consistent wide receivers with the absence of Michael Thomas. The Saints may have Book lock onto the number one receiver and then just run the ball instead of asking him to go through a large number of progressions in this game and if that’s the case then Callaway should have an opportunity to reach value at the flex position.