Roundtable Week 2

Brimacombe: Elijah Mitchell has the biggest ceiling and is a potential league winner as he hits on the best running team in the league, a well-balanced offense that will ease him in, and he won’t have to handle 20+ touches a game which might actually benefit him. He is the name that stands out above all others Week 1 waiver adds.

Mark Ingram is a guy that I really just don’t want to even consider adding but with the volume he saw in Week 1 I am reconsidering. I want to monitor him some but he will be scooped up this week just because of his volume this week. I would rather hold off on him and wait and see how Week 2 goes for him but on the flip side I would look for a player like Phillip Lindsay if he gets dropped or is on the waiver wire I would focus on him and hope he out volumes Ingram in the next few weeks.

Tyler Conklin seems like a guy that we want to make a thing as the Vikings are desperate for someone anyone making plays behind Jefferson and Thielen, but he's Fool's Gold to me.

Hindery: As James said, Mitchell has the highest ceiling. We have seen Alfred Morris lead the NFL in rushing yards in this system. We have seen Raheem Mostert have absolutely monster fantasy games. I would not bet my life savings that Mitchell holds onto the starting job all season. In fact, that seems unlikely. But it is also not an unrealistic way for this to play out either and that possibility gives Mitchell the most fantasy upside of any potential Week 1 waiver add.

In leagues with deeper benches, I am making a waiver claim on Juwan Johnson now. In leagues where benches aren’t quite as deep, he is near the top of my watchlist. I want to see him do it again and prove his two-touchdown in Week 1 was not a fluke. Given his strong camp performance, physical tools, and the dearth of other options in the passing game, Johnson has a real chance to keep producing.

Albert Okwuegbunam would need an injury to Noah Fant for me to feel comfortable actually starting him in my fantasy lineup so I think he's Fool's Gold.

Parsons: When I think ceiling of impact, I think running back. Even a 3-4 week stretch as a clear starter can change a fantasy season. Both Mitchell and Hasty fit the bill as 'hold even if they are running as the RB3 for the 49ers' for a point in the season. Jeffery Wilson (currently on IR) also qualifies on that depth chart as a name to remember later in the season. If 3-4 backs get clarified to 1-2 for moments over the next four months, the impact potential is there. Hasty could easily be dropped if Trey Sermon starts producing and Hasty is the clear RB3 with Mitchell ahead of him. Monitor any Hasty drops (no pun intended) in future weeks to get cheap-free exposure to the backfield when he was a meaningful pickup pre-Week 1.

Okwuegbunam and Pharaoh Brown are two whom I like but are tough to trust. Juwan Johnson is my favorite lower-rostered tight end. I was aggressive last week and this week, but Johnson is largely on rosters in applicable formats now. Brown showed well, but it was a perfect storm game for Houston and Jordan Akins still saw plenty of snaps despite no production. For Okwuegbunam, Jerry Jeudy out places a premium on more playmakers in the passing game in general, independent of position

Zach Pascal is the Fool's Gold of the commonly-added players for this week. Pascal had multiple touchdowns on a Colts passing game which has plenty of similar talent or better than Pascal. This is unlikely to be a high-flying passing game either, so the total pie will lag if they can help it weekly with a quality defense and multiple running backs on whom to center the offense.

Schofield: Christian Kirk is the player I am targeting right now. Kliff Kingsbury to his credit — and my surprise — called a very good game in Week 1. He also did a lot with DeAndre Hopkins on one boundary and A.J. Green on the other, opening up opportunities for slot receivers. Kirk got a lot of those targets and caught a beautiful rainbow of a throw from Kyler Murray for a touchdown. On that play, Kirk was the primary read, and Murray when right to him for the long TD, and when you see coaches calling plays for specific players, you take notice.

Waldman: He was my top waiver wire add recommendation on Chris Harris' Waiver Podcast this week. I liked what I saw as well and you make a great point about Kingsbury designing plays for his players. It's encouraging when a player like Kirk earns some specific first-read opportunities.

Schofield: I have my finger hovering over Bryan Edwards in a lot of leagues I am in because while I was happy to see his targets and performance down the stretch, there are reasons to hesitate. Baltimore went with a ton of blitzes, including Cover-0 blitzes, late in that game that freed up opportunities for Edwards that might not be available week-to-week. If his production continues against different looks, you might want to pounce.

Waldman: I'm a little more optimistic because Derek Carr went to Edwards as his first read multiple times with the game on the line after Edwards was only the first read in 3-4 other situations out of 30 routes that he ran before these late-game scenarios. As you said, that's a concern but with Carr deciding to go Edwards's way and make one serious trust throw that reflects the easy rapport Carr has said he's had with Edwards since last year, I'm thinking we're going to see a lot more.

Scofield: I loved seeing what Tyrod Taylor and the Houston Texans did in Week 1, but they will not be playing the Jacksonville Jaguars each week. Therefore, as great as Pharoah Brown played on Sunday, including a tremendous one-handed catch on a deep route against yes, a Cover-0 blitz, I'm not ready to jump in just yet.

Bischoff: As tempting as it is to throw in Mitchell’s name here, I will go with quarterback Taylor Heinecke. Heinecke takes over as the starter for an offense with excellent downfield weapons, and he should be able to produce at a high level throughout the rest of the season. He is a nice depth addition to a fantasy roster.

Johnson is super intriguing, and I’m tempted to make a move now but I am holding off for a week. He is behind tight end Adam Trautman, and I need to see a bit more from Johnson to make the move. I will echo James’ sentiments on Conklin as Fool's Gold.

Geary: Scott and I are in lock-step here. Heinecke isn’t as much of a downgrade from Ryan Fitzpatrick as most people think. The only downside is that Fitzpatrick received all offseason reps with the starters, so Heinecke may take a few weeks to gain his footing, but I believe he can still lead this team to a division title. He has the pieces around him to succeed and a defense to help him when he falters. Zach Pascal could be a surprise as well if he continues to build on his rapport with quarterback Carson Wentz as his favorite end zone target.

Johnson is also a player I am monitoring because of his productive outing but the volume was small Teammate Adam Trautman had a 30 percent target share from quarterback Jameis Winston (six targets) and played on more snaps than Johnson, forcing me to temper future expectations for Johnson. However, the situation is fluid and is certainly worth monitoring to see if one of these tight ends emerges as a favorite target for Winston.

The 49ers backfield is the riskiest “Fool’s Gold” from this list, but instead, I’ll also go with Conklin. Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen are the top targets for Kirk Cousins, and last week's emergence of second-year wide receiver KJ Osborn (nine targets) complicates a potential breakout for Conklin even more. Couple these things with the. Vikings' run-first scheme and Conklin is best left on your wire.

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Fantasy Management: Style And Tendencies

Matt Waldman: Weeks 1-3 are the most reactive periods of the hobby. Last year is a good example. Clyde Edwards Helaire was hailed an elite fantasy producer after the Chiefs bullied what turned out to be a lowly Texans squad. Benny Snell was considered better than James Conner based on some highly questionable in-game observations from the masses.

If you acted fast with those two situations, you probably overpaid and got diminishing returns. However, UDFA James Robinson became a top-10 fantasy back after a strong summer and Josh Allen remained hot all year after two up-and-down seasons and a lot of doubts about his development.

Then there were patience plays like Jonathan Taylor, a back who, by midseason, was compared to Trent Richardson by his fan base and fantasy analysts, and he wound up the No.6 fantasy runner down the stretch.

These are uncommon scenarios by the numbers when looking at the annual sample size of events unfolding in the league, but not rare. I'd argue, that the fantasy GM who wins a league is the uncommon person during that moment, although the odds are not rare.

Here's the deal. We all have our own strengths and weaknesses as fantasy analysts and fantasy GMs. With what I shared as the backdrop, answer these three questions. I ask them hoping for some vulnerability and insight into your process for our readers:

• Are you a patient GM or action-oriented? I imagine you err on the side of your strength, but some don't, so do you err on the side of action or inaction as a fantasy GM? Why do you think that is (good and bad)?
• If fantasy championships are like a table, the draft, waivers, lineup management, and trades are four potential legs you can use to construct the table. What are your strongest and weakest legs?
• Which positions are you the best at acquiring? The worst? And in which manner of acquisition (waivers or trades)
• Which positions are you the best/worst at picking for your starting lineups?

Geary: I am usually aggressive in taking action, sometimes to a fault in years past. Dropping a player in the first few weeks is such a tough decision, especially because they are usually guys you did your research on and have a soft spot for. Knowing when to drop a player is such an important part of the game. When Kamara began to emerge slowly as a rookie a few years ago, I remember being very aggressive in trying to acquire him in most leagues. He ended up being on a large percentage of playoff rosters. It is important to remember to have fun with this game and trust your gut. Adjust in future years when your process works out or fails!

My strongest legs of the table are usually the draft and waivers. You hear this all the time but it is true: your league is not won or lost at the draft. ANYTHING can happen — injuries, trades, depth chart shockers, the emergence of rookie superstars, and much more throughout the year. Having a platform that gives you breaking news is key for quick moves on the wire.

Subscribing to the Footballguys daily email blasts is also extremely beneficial, as they cover so much information to keep you informed and up to date, fully digestible in just a few minutes. Staying informed is not something every one of your league mates is doing, so it gives you a consistent edge especially on waivers. My own lineup management is my “weakest” leg, which is why I now GIVE fantasy advice (because at times I can’t seem to trust my gut and take my own advice!)

I am the best at acquiring running backs and wide receivers, as not everyone in my redraft leagues stays informed or up to date on snap count trends, usage, targets, and more. Many people simply look at last week’s box scores before submitting their waiver claims, so staying on top of important trends gives me an edge more often than not.

I will tilt over my flex positions in every league most weeks because they have the power to legitimately make or break your week sometimes. I am usually pretty good at selecting my starting quarterbacks and running backs.

Waldman: Flex plays are always a difficult proposition, Victoria. This is especially true when I'm stuck between a back or a wide receiver in a deep league where neither guy is a known starter but they've given me compelling reasons to add them and use them during a bye week.

Schofield: Here, dear reader, is where you learn about Uncle Mark and his fear of conflict and confrontations.

Because I am a patient GM, to a fault. I find myself talking myself out of most trades, or even proposing trades, because of that fear. It is a flaw, a character one, and something that I really need to overcome. Yet I rationalize it with the idea that "I'm just being patient, I'm not going to overreact," but when your running back room looks like James Robinson, Javonte Williams, A.J. Dillon, and Gio Bernard, as it does on one of my rosters, you might need to tinker a bit.

But I'm already finding ways to justify my 0-1 start...

So to use Mr. Waldman's table analogy, the draft is my strongest and trades are my weakest. Because the draft is familiar footing, and something that I alone can control. Having spent hours and hours each week studying players, and offenses, and schemes, both at the pro and college level, that is where I am most comfortable. But having to negotiate, and dare we say to interact with other humans? Not my strongest suit.

In terms of acquiring players, I'm probably best at adding receivers, usually through waivers. Because since I spend pretty much 18 hours each Monday studying quarterbacks -- and by extension their offenses -- I get a feel for usage, play design, and how teams are using receivers. Leading to moments like my Christian Kirk recommendation above. But anything running back-related? Forget it. Maybe it's the old QB in me, but the running game scares me.

When it comes to setting lineups, quarterbacks remain a strength. Again, the hours of quarterback study, offensive play design study, etc tend to pay off there. Yet looking at running backs again is a problem for me. I tend to get bogged down in the Xs and Os there and, as I have found over the years, that does not always pan out the way it does for me in the passing game. I remember years ago recommending Rex Burkhead one week against the Saints because the Saints' defense had given up some big plays on outside zone designs the prior week. Well, like a good defensive coordinator would, he spent some time that week in practice sorting those issues out. Oh, and any RB recommendation involving New England usually fails to pan out...

Waldman: I'm definitely patient to a fault, Mark. Because we both study a lot of players. I have to think so when you spend a lot of time evaluating a player, it's easy to err on the side of talent when the opportunity and team fit may not match up.

While I rarely make trades, I've dramatically improved my skill at the craft since I met my wife, Alicia. Her deep understanding of the craft of negotiation — and I'm not talking your old man's belief in his negotiation skills because of the price he got on a house or car, but the process of negotiating multi-million dollar contracts on behalf of international businesses — has helped me set the stage for productive conversations that lead to win-win deals and gaining trust in league mates to deal with me. I've also learned to stockpile positions in dynasty drafts rather than draft for need and this allows me to made deals where I am giving up high-producing players isn't painful because I'm often 3-4 deep.

I've made a lot more winning deals on draft day as well as midseason trades during the past 10 years compared to my first 15 years of playing fantasy football. I once traded away Michael Vick for Byron Leftwich. I'll never forget that. Last year alone, I got excellent deals for Myles Garrett, Nick Chubb, and Jonathan Taylor before the season began. Still, I'll never forget the Vick-Leftwich trade. Awful!

That said, there are leagues where I'm so low on emotional bandwidth when someone contacts me that I don't use these principles at all and I limit future opportunities.

I'm not good at correctly bidding on free agents. I don't have a good feel for the proper amount of a bid. I either vastly overbid or don't come close to the winning bid. However, because I'm a patient GM and tend to draft well, I often can be in the position to speculate during First-Come, First-Serve free agency after waiver bidding and add players who become values 1-2 weeks later and at no cost. When I am not in this position, I can destroy a team's season with my bidding inadequacies. Funny enough, you'd think my past history as a winning auction GM with great drafts would help me here, but the dynamics of blind bidding are so different.

Most people would presume that running back is my strength as a GM because of my track record with the position as an evaluator. It's ok for re-draft purposes, but I'm better at assessing receiver talent in re-drafts and from the waiver wire. When I err with player acquisition, I'm usually a year too early with running backs and tight ends in re-draft formats.

Bischoff: I tend to suffer from a touch of inaction at times because I don’t like to cut players I liked enough to draft. The problem there is when it is time to make a move, the players that may have helped the most are long gone. Playing the “what if” game is silly, but I just did it above in describing what I am doing with tight end Juwan Johnson. There is admittedly a touch of hubris to this approach, and it is something I am working on.

I feel I am at my strength in the draft, grabbing players that can outperform their draft position. I am at my weakest with waiver additions and lineup management. I have outlined my paralysis in terms of moving on from draft selections and adding league-winning types of waiver-wire additions. The lineup issue can be difficult at times when there are multiple options to choose from. An example from Week 1 was sitting wide receiver Corey Davis (a player I targeted much earlier in drafts than his ADP) in favor of other players. There is a disconnect at times from the “he is a breakout guy I’m drafting early” to let’s sit him in Week 1, and as I read what I just wrote I am shaking my head at the cognitive dissonance here.

Waldman: Scott, I've played in enough leagues with writers who are counted on for advice and don't follow the good advice they've given thousands or even millions of readers. It's more common than you think.

Bischoff: That's comforting. I am definitely better at targeting players in trades than waiver-wire additions, but my answer is biased because I am generally not trading for waiver-wire types, so obviously there has been more success trading for roster locks. I have had more success acquiring running backs and wide receivers than other positions. As an example, I will target young running backs (players who have underperformed that I liked in the scouting process) whose teams have gone out to bolster their offensive lines with early draft picks. It is easier for me to pick quarterbacks for starting lineups than other positions. The other positions feel more volatile and there is a wide range of outcomes there.

Parsons: I am patient with my core players but move quickly with the back-end of my roster, whether redraft or dynasty. These are typically ancillary running backs, so when a depth chart turns sub-optimal, like Malcolm Brown playing behind Salvon Ahmed or Joshua Kelley being RB4 and inactive, I react quickly to move to more clarified Samaje Perine and Jeremy McNichols types as RB2 types. With higher-level investments - a good example is Jalen Reagor, one of my favorites from the 2020 class - I am slow to move off them with pedigree and a prospect profile of appeal entering the NFL.

Of the two, my flaw in the past is being more on the side on inaction with my offseason or preseason takes on players and offenses. The past 1-2 seasons I have worked hard to be more liquid with the final few roster spots, which affects every aspect of a fantasy team from the later rounds of a draft to the positions on my bench to keep investments in acquiring players in those roster spots low so there is minimal allegiance to them from a cost perspective.

Trading and waivers are significant strengths of mine to build and improve teams. The preemptive pickup has become so regularly associated with my podcasts and articles, it might as well be my tagline on such content. The weak leg is definitely lineups. There is such emotion and personal responsibility tied to setting lineups and it is beyond easy to second guess a decision when you look on Monday or Tuesday and see one swap as the difference between a win and a loss.

I use Footballguys projections and Start Rate as anchor points and try, as much as possible, to keep my personal whims away from those resources. As a general community (see 'The League' where fiddling with their lineup all week was a common theme of the show) we obsess about sit-start decisions plenty. It's understandable, but also something very difficult to track well over the long-term to ask the question 'am I good or bad at setting lineups?' Having good options on your bench is a plus, but it can also make lineups more difficult (aka good problems to have). Have a studs-and-duds roster can make lineups a breeze to set, but the lack of depth can derail teams in a single Sunday of injuries.

Running back is my bread and butter with collecting and tiers injury-away options for low-cost while others wait for full clarity of 'this player is the starter, now we know' before truly diving in - for a much higher cost if they are available at all. One historical example is when leagues flocked to Spencer Ware a few seasons ago as the new Chiefs starter for 'empty the holster' level waiver bids late in the year, I added a bevy of Damien Williams shares as the new next man up at the moment for minimal bids. Ware got hurt the next game and Williams took teams into title games and won plenty of them that year.

My other lower-leverage positional interest is the backup tight-end marketplace in 2TE formats. I love evaluating those deeper plays who, like running backs or quarterbacks, are an injury away from relevance. Wide receivers are tricky in general and especially for me of the skill positions. I acknowledge its risk and may pivot or adaptation is sticking with the older veterans with a strong track record of being a team's WR1 and a quality producer. I still have my favorite 'yet to breakout' receiver names every season, but know it's a rabbit hole I have ventured down too often with too many sunken roster spots in the past. Pretend the bad habit is not there and not even an option and its temptation are minimized.

Running back and wide receiver are pretty straightforward - start the top option for an NFL offense. Have too many of those for your lineup? That's a good problem to have. Don't have enough? Things getting interesting for lineup decisions. Quarterback and tight end are far more difficult for me as most tight ends do not see enough usage to have a good sense of what is next and a touchdown swings production plenty. For quarterbacks, it takes a few weeks into the season to get a sense of which matchups are good-bad for the position, and rushing production is another variable week-to-week with a rogue score on the ground or 2-3 chunk runs affecting their outcome. Of the two, successfully navigating a tight end-by-committee throughout the season is my toughest lineup task.