WEEK 17 PREPARATION
Congratulations to those of you who dominated the playoffs up to this point, or squeaked through by the narrowest of margins. This year's COVID-fueled challenges have been difficult to navigate. You looked at bad luck in the face and said, "Is that all you got?" Several big names either did not play due to being on the reserve COVID list or simply failed to meet expectations like Tom Brady, Adam Thielen, Keenan Allen, to name a few. Austin Ekeler, Dalvin Cook, Travis Kelce, Taysom Hill, Rhamondre Stevenson, Gabriel Davis, Tyler Huntley, were all big names who did not play due to COVID restrictions. At the same time other players did come through, A.J. Brown, Damien Harris, Mark Andrews, Miami's defense, Joe Burrow, All Bengals wide receivers, namely Tee Higgins, Davante Adams, Joe Mixon, Deebo Samuel, Nick Chubb, Rex Burkhead, etc. While some big names hit, others did not. There will be some teams in the title game who stumbled in. To use a hockey/soccer analogy, a goal is still a goal even if it slowly rolls past the goalie. It takes skill to advance this far, but there's also a great deal of luck involved. Congratulations if you made it this far. A lot of strong teams will be watching from home without a team competing in Week 17. I thought I summed up the fantasy playoffs with this tweet.
Winning in fantasy football...
— Jeff Haseley (@JeffHaseley) December 26, 2021
1. Get to the playoffs with a few strong players & consistent play
2. Take advantage of good matchups
3. Navigate the COVID list
4. Replace COVID players with the right ones
5. Hope your opponent is just as bad
6. Navigate the refs.
No problem
For those of you who did make it...Week 17 is here. You survived. You're in the Finals. (Hopefully, the majority of you do not have a Week 18 Championship). Maybe you have a lot of money on the line? Or maybe just bragging rights among your family, friends or co-workers. Either way, the goal is in sight. Here are a few thoughts on how you can take down your opponent and lift the trophy.
HISTORICALLY, HOME RUNNING BACKS ARE MORE PRODUCTIVE
Unless there's an injury to a big-name player, go with those who got you here. Home running backs are the ticket, especially later in the year. Perhaps the biggest key performer at home this week is potential league MVP, Jonathan Taylor vs Las Vegas, but don't overlook Joe Mixon vs. Kansas City, David Montgomery vs NY Giants, Austin Ekeler vs Denver, and Damien Harris vs Jacksonville as key home running back plays.
Also to be mentioned are the backs who will face, NY Jets, Pittsburgh, Buffalo, and Seattle. All have given up the most fantasy points to running backs since Week 10.
The best matchups for running backs include:
- The Jets' opponent is Tampa Bay. Even though this is a road game for Tampa they should still be able to exploit this matchup. Ronald Jones II is the one who will benefit most. The Jets have allowed 22 rushing touchdowns to running backs this season in 15 games.
- Pittsburgh's opponent is Cleveland. Another road game matchup but Nick Chubb and potentially Kareem Hunt are players to target in this divisional game. Both teams need a win to stay alive in the busy AFC Wildcard race. Pittsburgh has allowed the most fantasy points to running backs since Week 10 with four backs going over 20 PPR points in that span.
- Buffalo - Surprisingly the Bills have struggled against running backs lately, allowing three touchdowns to Damien Harris last week, but that also includes a 100-yard rusher in four of the last six games. Can Buffalo be exploited here? Possibly. They will host the Falcons in Week 17. Could this be a chance for Cordarrelle Patterson and perhaps Mike Davis to shine? It might.
- Seattle - The Seahawks have allowed at least 12 PPR points to running backs in every game since Week 4 with five 20+ PPR performances by running backs in the last seven games. This week Detroit plays at Seattle and they may elect to play D'Andre Swift or at worst, Jamaal Williams. Monitor the news out of Detroit, but one of those two could have a decent outing and is worthy of being a flex-start for your championship roster.
RIDE THESE QUARTERBACKS FOR THE WIN
Jalen Hurts at Washington - The Eagles have quietly scored 30+ points in seven games this season, five of which came in the last eight games. Hurts has led the Eagles to wins in five of the last six games and Washington is on the verge of packing it in for the season, if they haven't done so already. Last week's debacle vs Dallas included several non-starters filling a void, especially on defense. Whether that remains the same is yet to be determined, but this appears to be a team that is ready to close their locker for the last time this year. Philadelphia has outscored their opponent by 10+ points in each of their last five wins, including the Week 15 game against Washington.
Matthew Stafford at Baltimore - The Ravens have been hit hard with injuries on both sides of the ball, but the defense appears to be suffering the most. Last week's career game by Joe Burrow (500+ yards and 4 touchdowns) was a clear example of one team dominating the other while exploiting a weakness. Cincinnati realized early on that passing the ball was the best way to gain yards against the Ravens. They found a weakness and exploited it. Other teams will follow suit, starting with Stafford and the Rams this week. If you have Stafford and any Rams receivers, you should be smiling with anticipation.
Tom Brady at NY Jets - Last week we saw the Buccaneers win against Carolina without needing Brady's arm to make plays, especially in the second half. Tampa Bay may find themselves in that predicament again in Week 17 at the Jets, but we know this, Brady has feasted on the Jets throughout his career and we know Tampa likes to score, with five 30-plus point games in the last six. The Jets have allowed 30-plus points in three of the last four games. This feels like a game that Brady dominates from start to finish with two or three touchdowns when it's all said and done.
LET FOOTBALLGUYS DO THE LEGWORK FOR YOU
Fantasy Football is essentially making decisions on unknown expectations. Oh sure, we can get an idea of who to play based on trends, statistics, matchups, and opportunities, but the more you know, the better off you'll be. Research Vegas lines. Our John Lee does a great job of looking at each game's expected point totals to learn about which players to target in his weekly Vegas Value Chart You can also use DFS to give you an edge when determining your lineup. Each week we take a look at expected ownership percentages based on lineups that locked for Thursday night contests. Projecting roster percentages. A high roster percentage by the consensus of the daily fantasy world might be enough to persuade you to pencil in a particular player in your Championship game lineup. You'll be surprised how much this can help you. One last page that can help you is Sean Settle's weekly piece, WR/TE Matchups to Exploit. This article examines the good and bad matchups that receivers have against opposing cover corners. It's a great weekly read that can ultimately be the deciding factor on pulling the trigger on your WR4 or your flex option. *Please note these links are tagged with Week 16 articles that may not be published until Wednesday or Thursday of this week.
THREE QUARTERBACKS TO BE WARY OF STARTING
For the most part, ride with the horse that got you here, but here are three big-name quarterbacks who may not reach their usual production
Ryan Tannehill vs Miami - The Dolphins have won seven straight games and they have been dominant on defense. Miami has not allowed a touchdown pass in the last three games and has allowed seven touchdown passes in the last nine games while intercepting 11 passes. Some of those games have been against inferior quarterbacks like Ian Book, Zach Wilson, Cam Newton, and Joe Flacco, but good defense is good defense. Success is contagious and right now Miami's level of play is going viral.
Kyler Murray at Dallas - The Cowboys defense, especially their pass rush, has been on point lately reaching double-digit numbers for Def/ST in five of the last seven games. They are the top fantasy defense in the league, especially recently. After the first six games, Dallas allowed four games of multiple touchdown passes. Since Week 6 only Taysom Hill has reached two touchdown passes against them. Kyler Murray and the Cardinals are struggling to gain traction lately and this game could be a culmination of their issues on offense. Since returning from injury in Week 13, Murray has three games of 0 or 1 touchdowns. He's up against a strong defense, on the road. Opting for a better option in Championship week may not seem like a good idea, but it may be something to consider.
Trey Lance vs. Houston - The 49ers may be without Jimmy Garoppolo (thumb) this week. If so, Trey Lance will get an opportunity to show what he has learned while carrying a clipboard and earpiece. The matchup on paper looks great - at home vs. Houston. What could go wrong? The Texans are quietly fifth-best in the league since Week 10 in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Since Week 8 they have allowed only one quarterback multiple touchdown passes (Russell Wilson in Week 14). They may have only three wins, but their pass defense is not being threatened. A strong running game may be in the cards for the 49ers but their passing game could struggle. Something to consider if you're thinking about Lance this week, especially in a Superflex league.
ONE UNLIKELY QUARTERBACK TO CONSIDER STARTING
It's difficult to consider starting either of these quarterbacks in a Championship game, but if you're in a two-quarterback league, or if you are in dire need of a potential gem, take a flier on these favorable matchups
Trey Lance vs Houston - Yes, I just said that Lance is one to be wary of starting, but in the same breath I can argue that he may be a decent option if you're in dire need of a quarterback. Rushing quarterbacks tend to pile up more fantasy points because they have that added skill that rewards you with points. Lance will likely come into this game with a fairly simple playbook with plenty of RPO plays (run, pass, option) side note - why isn't this called PRO? Lance could benefit greatly from the opportunity to tuck the ball away and run on several occasions. That's why San Francisco moved up to #3 to draft him - a 20-year-old dual-threat quarterback, who also has a strong arm. We may see the beginning of what's possible in Kyle Shanahan's system in 2022. On the off-chance he is great this week and finds it easy to run and pass well, we may see more of him in the upcoming playoffs, if San Francisco is lucky enough to earn a berth.
Patriots Defense for the win - You knew this already, but if you have New England's defense, it will be tough to wipe that smile off your face. They will host the Jaguars in Week 17. The Jags have been abysmal as a passing game. Trevor Lawrence has two touchdown passes playing in every game since Week 6. He has 9 touchdowns and 14 interceptions this year for a Jaguars team that has not connected all year. Now James Robinson is out of the picture. It could get ugly for Jacksonville in New England. If this turns into a weather game, look out.
WHO ARE SOME WAIVER PICKUPS THAT YOU CAN POTENTIALLY START THIS WEEK?
In most cases, the last player to earn a spot in your starting lineup is the one who can shift the points total in your favor when the last snap is made on Monday Night Football. Which player is the difference-maker? It could come from the last player you insert into your lineup. Here are a few options if you're in dire need of help due to a Week 15 injury.
Rex Burkhead RB, HOU - He is coming off a 22-149-2 performance against the Chargers and should see more of the same this week against San Francisco. The Texans beat the Chargers soundly last week and Burkhead was a big reason why. He may not come close to those numbers this week but if he can give you decent volume with a chance of a touchdown, he's at least worthy of a flex option in the biggest fantasy week of the year.
Darrel Williams RB, KC - The injury to Clyde Edwards-Helaire has opened the door for Williams to become a plug-n-play running back on one of the better offenses in the league. The Chiefs have utilized him well in the five games Edwards-Helaire was out earlier this season. He had decent yardage totals with occasional touchdowns, but his main contribution was 24 receptions in those five games. He is a good-starting option this week at Cincinnati. Even if you don't need him, block your opponent from adding him and sit him on your bench if you elect not to play him yourself.
Jordan Howard, Boston Scott RB, PHI - The Eagles have the most rushing yards in the league (2,446) and are tied for the most rushing touchdowns (22). They have won five of six games and will face the Washington Football Team in Week 17. Miles Sanders is likely out with a hand injury allowing Howard and Scott a chance to shine. This is a good matchup and there's a chance that both may be on the wire. Howard did suffer a stinger in Week 16 which was not the first time. All signs point to him playing this week, but in the off-chance that he is out or ineffective, Scott becomes an even bigger play.
Tyler Huntley QB, BAL - The matchup against the Rams isn't favorable, but if you need a quarterback, Huntley could be a decent answer. Lamar Jackson (ankle) may not be ready to return thus giving Huntley an opportunity, provided he is cleared from the reserve COVID list.
Chicago Defense - The Giants have fallen apart over the last few weeks and Chicago may be in the right place at the right time to pile on the struggling Giants offense. With Daniel Jones (neck) out of commission, Mike Glennon has been forced into action. Expect a few turnovers and some sacks in this home matchup for the Bears, who may be on the wire.
New Orleans Defense - The Saints will host the struggling Panthers who have allowed 17 sacks and 7 interceptions in the last four games. New Orleans may be available on your wire. If so, they are a decent play this week.
Feel free to reach me on Twitter with any questionable lineup decisions. As always, good luck to you. Go earn the Championship!
Questions, comments, and start/sit decisions are always welcome. Hit me up on Twitter.
