Sunday Morning Update
Check back each Sunday Morning around 11:45 EST for any updates based on the actives/inactives and Sunday news. Note, we will always put something on here even if it is as simple as “no update”.
I don't have an update for this week. I admittedly don't love D.J. Moore, and spoke about that on the Power Grid, but that was primarily as a GPP play as I think at 20% rostered in GPP's he doesn't have the upside to warrant that. For a cash game play, he's basically a guy that we're trying to cancel out with our opponents as he should be popular on this slate.
James Conner is the big one here that worries me as he will get some popularity this week and has multiple touchdown upside every time he takes the field.
Good luck everyone.
- QB Tyler Huntley, BAL, $7,000
- RB Devin Singletary, BUF, $6,700
- RB Jonathan Taylor, IND, $10,200
- WR Justin Jefferson, MIN $8,500
- WR Christian Kirk, ARI, $6,200
- WR D.J. Moore, CAR, $6,100
- TE Zach Ertz, ARI, $5,600
- Flex Ke’Shawn Vaughn, $10,200
- TD New York Giants, $3,600
SITUATIONS THAT STAND OUT TO THIS WEEK ON THE MAIN SLATE.
Low scoring week, only three teams make the cutoff of situations that standout this week.
- Indianapolis (at Jacksonville) 29.8 points
- Buffalo (vs NY Jets) 28.5 points
- Arizona (vs Seattle) 27.3 points
- Tennessee (at Houston) 26.5 points
- Minnesota (vs Chicago) 25 points
Week 17 Recap
Week 17 was a nice rebound week but was far from a perfect week. While it ended up being a profitable week for me and hopefully everyone who is reading this, it could have been much better. Admittedly, the 50/50’s that I joined late on Sunday did not fill, so I’m basing the results off of all of the Head-to-Heads that were joined throughout the week. Always love to hear your feedback, so feel free to reach out during the week or on Sunday.
What went right?
- Devin Singletary was a key piece to the lineup as he dominated at his $6,000 price tag. Singletary got off to a slow start but finished the game with 110 yards and 2 touchdowns at a somewhat reduced ownership which was critical.
- Trey Lance was a solid play this week as he threw for 249 and 2 touchdowns while also rushing for 31 yards. At just $6,400, he vastly outperformed
What went wrong?
- Jaylen Waddle and the Dolphins were a surprise let down as they got absolutely destroyed by the Titans. Waddle had one of his worst games of the season as he had just 3 receptions for 47 yards.
- Picking the wrong Bengals receiver. Tee Higgins wasn’t awful, but certainly was not up to par as he had just 62 yards on 3 receptions. However, Ja’Marr Chase was dominant with 266 yards and 3 touchdowns.
INJURY UNLOCKS OPPORTUNITY?
- The Green Bay Packers are likely an avoidable situation this week. They have stated that they will play their starters, but it’s hard to imagine that they are going to play the entire game. This seems likely that they will play a half and then rest the second half of the game.
- Cincinnati is in an interesting spot here as they are going to sit Joe Burrow this week and Brandon Allen will start. However, no additional players have been ruled out. Ja’Marr Chase is just 12 yards away from Chad Johnson’s franchise record which seems like he will get that and then sit the remainder of the game. Bengals coach Zac Taylor has been keeping it close to the vest when it comes to playing time saying he thinks there’s a “chance” that these players could play. If there is an interesting name it’s Tyler Boyd who has been vocal about getting to 1,000 yards this week which means he would need 172 yards which seems unlikely, but as a GPP play you could take a shot on him.
- Mike Glennon will miss this week which means that the Giants will be starting Jake Fromm once again this week. This puts the Washington Football Team near the top of the defensive rankings in Week 18.
- Ronald Jones II will miss this week with an ankle injury. Ke’Shawn Vaugh will get the start for Tampa Bay who may be interesting this week.
- Chase Edmonds is out for Arizona with a rib injury. James Conner will once again be a very strong cash game play this week although he is less than 100% healthy after missing last week. He’s not on the injury report, but how much are they willing to risk Conner this week heading into the playoffs as they need help to move off of the 5 seed.
- Kyle Pitts is questionable with a hamstring injury this week. It would not be a surprise to see the Falcons shut him down for the season.
Strategy Thoughts: How to Approach Week 18
People often overcomplicate Week 18 cash games. GPP’s are a completely different story, and we’ll touch on those briefly in a second, but for cash games, Week 18 is really no different than any other week. You want to find players who are going to get “predictable” touches, that are in as good of matchups as possible, and that are value players on this slate. Trying to decipher which players are going to see additional playing time due to a team resting their starters is often not a cash game play.
A GPP is completely different in Week 18, as this is where you want to take a stand on who Brandon Allen is likely to throw to, or how Gardner Minshew will target his receivers, or whether the Packers will have anyone of value such as A.J. Dillon for resting their starters. However in a cash game format, on such a large slate, there is no need to go this route.
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Quarterback |
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Rank |
Player |
Projection |
Salary |
Comment |
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1 |
19.7 |
$7,000 |
Tyler Huntley will once again get the start for Baltimore. Pittsburgh's linebackers are some of the worst in the NFL which has led to mobile quarterbacks having some success as Lamar Jackson had 55 yards while Justin Fields had 45 earlier this season. If Huntley can run for 40 or more which he has done in every game he has started this season, he should be able to do enough through the air to reach value at his $7,000 price tag. |
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2 |
25.8 |
$8,800 |
Josh Allen looked horrendous last week throwing three interceptions and only 120 yards against the Falcons. Allen's price then increased due to his two rushing touchdowns to salvage his day against the Falcons. Allen has tremendous upside against the Jets this week, and is similar to some other quarterbacks that we've had to decide on such as Jalen Hurts a few weeks back. He has the upside and will be popular enough that you have to make a decision on him. At $8,800, the price is just a little bit too high to have him as the number one quarterback on this slate, but he's firmly in play if you wanted to build a balanced lineup. |
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3 |
19.2 |
$7,700 |
Taysom Hill is in an interesting position in this game as he has struggled over his last three passing the ball as the Saints offense is just one of the worst in the NFL. As a starter, Hill has multi-rushing touchdown upside, but has only ran for a touchdown in one of his four games this season as a starter. With his price being up at $7,700 he's just a little too expensive, but makes for a great GPP play this week. |
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4 |
17.1 |
$8,800 |
At $7,200, Cousins is a good value on this slate. Cousins has topped 300 yards in six games this season and has shown an upside. Playing in what could be his final game in Minnesota with coach Mike Zimmer, they've made it clear that they are going to do everything they can to win this game. |
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Running Back |
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Rank |
Player |
Projection |
Salary |
Comment |
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1 |
14.3 |
$6,700 |
Singletary facing the Jets comes in as the top play this week. While the Jets have been better as of late, they are still allowing the most fantasy points to running backs by a wide margin. In Week 18, the Bills could be more conservative with Josh Allen in the Red Zone in a game that they should be winning and give Singletary the workload. Coming off of a 100-yard 2 touchdown performance, his price should be higher than what it is this week. |
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2 |
22.4 |
$10,200 |
Jonathan Taylor is in a fantastic position in this game the only question is whether you can afford him at his absorbinant $10,200 price tag. Taylor in a must-win game for the Colts is facing a Jaguars team that has seemingly given up the last two weeks as they allowed Rhamondre Stevenson and Michael Carter to both top 110 yards. Taylor is several tiers above both of those running backs and is in a prime push for Offensive Player of the Year. This is a potential big game for Taylor on the ground, and he's had these big games before rushing for 250 yards last year in the final week of the season. Taylor has the highest touchdown prop on the board by a wide margin as he is -300 to score a touchdown in this game as the Colts are heavy favorites against the Jaguars. |
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3 |
D'Onta Foreman |
13.3 |
$6,900 |
The Titans are in "get ready for playoffs" mode. Derrick Henry has returned to practice, but by most accounts would be a surprise to play this week. However, we started to see the offense shift last week knowing that they would be getting Henry back. As part of this, the Titans went with a run-heavy approach running the ball a staggering 36 times with Foreman getting a majority of the workload in 26 carries for 132 yards and a touchdown. Going up against Houston in a favorable matchup, Foreman is a great play this week. |
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4 |
16.6 |
$8,700 |
Dalvin Cook is in a great position this week even as the Vikings have nothing to play for. Mike Zimmer has made it clear that he will not be playing his backups in this game and that he will be approaching this game no differently than the first game of the season. The Bears run-defense has fallen on hard times over the last two weeks as both Saquon Barkley and Rashaad Penny both topped 100-yards. Cook is in a different caliber of running back than those two, and should have a great opportunity for a big game this week. |
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5 |
15.6 |
$7,000 |
With no Chase Edmonds, James Conner could be in line for a big game this week. The problem is that he's also questionable with a heel injury, which does create some cause for concern as the Cardinals are going to need a lot to go right to improve their draft position, so how much do they run Conner out there this week is a question mark heading into this week. |
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6 |
Ke'Shawn Vaughn |
11.1 |
$5,900 |
Ke'Shawn Vaughn is going to be somewhat popular due to the injury to Ronald Jones II and the price people are going to just lock him in at $5,900 in a week where we need to save money. However, there are some concerns here. The big concern here is that this is still expected to be a timeshare with Le'Veon Bell who actually outsnapped Vaughn last week. The second concern is the matchup as the Panthers have allowed the 5th-fewest fantasy points to running backs this season. It seems unlikely that Vaughn is going to come out and get 15+ carries and will likely land in the 12 range which could be good enough if he can find the end zone, but you certainly aren't going to feel great about playing him if you have him in your lineup. |
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Wide Receiver |
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Rank |
Player |
Projection |
Salary |
Comment |
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1 |
11.5 |
$6,200 |
Christian Kirk has developed into a consistent wide receiver for the Cardinals this season since the injury to DeAndre Hopkins. The Seahawks showed their inability to stop slot receivers last week as Amon-Ra St. Brown had 111 yards receiving. This was the third slot receiver (Kupp, Cooks) to top 100 yards over the last five weeks which should bode well for Kirk this week who lines up in the slot on 79% of the snaps. |
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2 |
20.7 |
$10,000 |
The only negative that we can say about Cooper Kupp at this point is his price. At $10,000 it's going to be difficult to build a lineup around him, but he's in a fantastic position this season. Kupp needs 171 yards to get to 2,000 which is something that the Rams are going to try to get him to this week. Kupp has been by far the most consistent wide receiver this year. Since Robert Woods' injury, Kupp has topped 90 yards in every game this season, and has scored five touchdowns over his last five games. |
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3 |
17.5 |
$8,500 |
Expect Justin Jefferson to be popular this week for the simple fact that many people will not be able to find a lineup that they are comfortable with Cooper Kupp in it. Jefferson has as much upside as any player on this slide as he has shown in the second half of the season with three games of 140 yards or more. Jefferson did struggle against the Bears earlier this season, but all talk has been about how the Vikings want to come out and make a statement in this game. |
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4 |
D.J. Moore |
11.6 |
$6,200 |
D.J. Moore is a very similar player to Russell Gage, although Moore will be much more popular this week. People love playing the Panthers receiver as they look at the offense and see that there are no other options left to throw to. They also look at the first four weeks of the season and the early season bias stays with people throughout the entire course of the year as Moore started the season averaging 99.5 yards over his first four games. The problem has been since then, he has averaged just 56 yards per game with only one touchdown during that stretch. With Sam Darnold back, there is some optimism that he could get back to that early season form, but so far last week he amounted just 29 yards receiving. |
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5 |
9.9 |
$5,700 |
Russell Gage has been quietly consistent this season as he has topped 50 yards in 7 of his last 10 games with one game hitting 49 in that timeframe. He has been Atlanta's most reliable receiver since Calvin Ridley left the team earlier this season. The problem for Gage and why he is so inexpensive is due to his lack of touchdown upside as he has just three touchdowns on the season. The Falcons just have not thrown the ball enough consistently to receivers in the end zone. |
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6 |
Gabriel Davis |
9.3 |
$5,200 |
With Emmanuel Sanders listed as doubtful for this game, Gabriel Davis is a great punt play this week at just $5,200 as you may look for salary relief as you build your lineup. Davis has scored a touchdown in three of his last four games and is in the top 30 in the NFL in red zone targets this season with 16. There is a lot of risk with Davis, but he has topped 40 yards in three consecutive games while averaging 6 targets per game. This week against the Jets, the Bills should be able to put up some points, so Davis may see some work this week. |
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7 |
Michael Pittman |
11.7 |
$6,600 |
Pittman has been a reliable wide receiver over the last few weeks. Outside of a game in which he was ejected against New England, Pittman has six or more recpetions in each of of his last four weeks. The big problem for Pittman has been the lack of touchdowns, as he has not scored since November 4th, but still does lead the team in Red Zone targets with 17 as the team looks to utilize his big frame. If he can find the end zone in a game in which they are big favorites against Jacksonville, Pittman will pay off his salary this week. |
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Tight End
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