Sunday Morning Update
No update this morning as there doesn't appear to be any surprises this week, good luck everyone!
SITUATIONS THAT STAND OUT TO THIS WEEK ON THE MAIN SLATE.
Low scoring week, only three teams make the cutoff of situations that standout this week.
- Buffalo (vs Atlanta) 29.3 points
- Tampa Bay (at NY Jets) 29.3 points
- New England (vs Jacksonville) 28.5 points
- Dallas (vs Arizona) 28.5 points
- San Francisco (vs Houston) 28.3 points
- Kansas City (vs Cincinnati) 28 points
Apologies For the Delay
All, I want to apologize for the delay on this article. My primary computer completely crashed after writing this and researching this for many hours on Saturday right when I was going to post the article. I’ve worked through the night to try to get this out to you as soon as possible. Thanks for your understanding.
Week 16 Recap
After getting most things right this season, we have now fallen into a trap of two consecutive poor performances. Tyreek Hill was an absolute killer along with Matthew Stafford who had his first sub-200 yard performance of the season. It was a week that whenever it is that easy in terms of pricing always makes it much more difficult as the edge is reduced as we mentioned in the Week 16 article. The Sunday Morning Update was a killer as swapping out Antonio Brown for Keenan Allen ended up being the nail in the coffin for the lineup as Keenan Allen had his worst game of his season.
INJURY UNLOCKS OPPORTUNITY?
A number of players are questionable which will likely have an impact on the lineup, so the Sunday Morning Update could be a critical one this week.
- Lamar Jackson looks like he will miss this week due to an ankle injury which means Tyler Huntley will get the start this week. This greatly helps Mark Andrews although at $8,700 he’s very expensive and difficult to fit into your lineup.
- Jimmy Garoppolo will miss with a thumb injury which puts Trey Lance in line for the start this week. Lance is a solid value at $6,400 and will be one of the more popular plays this week.
- Andy Dalton will start for the Chicago Bears this week.
- Antonio Gibson is out due to Covid which should put Jaret Patterson in line for a majority of the carries with Jonathan Williams also seeing some work this week.
- Miles Sanders is out with a hand injury. This will put Boston Scott and Jordan Howard into a committee situation this week.
- Antonio Brown is questionable after being added late to the injury report with an ankle injury. This is one of the biggest injuries to watch this week. If Brown is out the Buccaneers will likely be without their top three receivers and could open up some needed value.
- James Robinson is out for the year, which means Dare Ogunbowale will get the majority of the carries for Jaguars this week.
- Kenny Golladay is the only healthy wide receiver on the Giants roster at the moment as Kadarius Toney, Darius Slayton, Collin Johnson, and John Ross are all out for this game and Sterling Shepard was already lost earlier this season.
- Elijah Mitchell is questionable this week with a knee injury. Mitchell has missed the last three games but is trending towards playing this week.
- James Conner is questionable this week, which if he is unable to go, Chase Edmonds becomes one of the top plays of this slate.
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire is out, which will put Darrel Williams as the primary starter for the Chiefs this week.
Strategy Thoughts: Difficult Pricing Week
After last weeks pricing where you could afford anyone you wanted, this week the pendulum has swung the other way in that the pricing is very difficult to build a lineup that you are comfortable with. While tight pricing should favor the more researched player, this is likely a bit of too tight of pricing for even my liking which could draw some of the lineups to become very similar to each other this week which is less than ideal.
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Quarterback |
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Rank |
Player |
Projection |
Salary |
Comment |
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1 |
19.0 |
$6,400 |
Trey Lance is going to be the most popular player in cash simply because of value. At $6,400, Lance provides some salary relief on a very tight pricing week. |
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2 |
20.2 |
$7,600 |
Stafford struggled last week in a game in which he threw for under 200 yards for the first time this season. This week, Stafford gets to face the Ravens defense who have allowed the most passing yards on the season and are coming off of a week where they allowed 525 yards to Joe Burrow. |
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3 |
19.6 |
$7,600 |
Tyler Huntley has shown an ability to be as close to a Lamar Jackson replacement as just about anyone in the NFL this season. In his three starts, Huntley has ran for 40 yards or more in each of his three starts, while throwing for 215 yards or more per game. |
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4 |
25.8 |
$8,800 |
Josh Allen is in a tricky spot this week, as the matchup is a good one against Atlanta who are allowing the third most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. The problem is the price, as at $8,800, he's just difficult to build a lineup around him with how difficult pricing is this week. By taking Allen, it is nearly impossible to have either of Jonathan Taylor or Cooper Kupp this week which to me are more of a priority than having to pay up to $8,800 at quarterback. |
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Running Back |
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Rank |
Player |
Projection |
Salary |
Comment |
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1 |
16.6 |
$7,200 |
Montgomery over the last four weeks has established himself as the Bears top receiving option as he is averaging 6.5 receptions per game. The Giants have allowed the 8th-most fantasy points to running backs this season. Montgomery has topped 80 yards in each of his last four games and is simply priced too low in a prime matchup. |
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2 |
14.2 |
$7,000 |
We saw enough of what we needed to see from Ronald Jones II last week to rank him as the top play on this slate. While he didn't have the massive game that we might have hoped, he did have 22 touches and this week is going up against the Jets who have allowed the most fantasy points to opposing running backs and a staggering 27 touchdowns to the position. |
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3 |
13.4 |
$6,000 |
Singletary has solidified himself as the number one running back in Buffalo and the volume has come along with it. Over his last two games, Singletary has averaged 20 touches per game. This week, the Bills take on a bad Falcons team that are allowing the 9th-most fantasy points to opposing running backs. Singletary at $6,000 is a great price especially if you want to want to pay up for Cooper Kupp or Jonathan Taylor. |
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4 |
14.1 |
$7,100 |
Baltimore's defense is much better against the run than it is against the pass, but they did show that they can be beatable allowing 135 yards and two touchdowns to Joe Mixon as he scored through both the air and on the ground. Michel has been a volume workhose since taking over the lead role in Los Angeles as he has 22.3 carries over the last four games. To get a volume workhorse even in a tough matchup at just $7,100, the price is too good this week to not consider Michel. |
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5 |
21.1 |
$10,000 |
Jonathan Taylor even in his "bad" weeks is a great week for most running backs. Taylor's touchdown streak was snapped last week as he had 108 yards rushing. Prior to that game, Taylor had scored a touchdown in 11 straight games and should be in a prime spot to find the end zone once again. If there is a little concern about Taylor it is that he hasn't caught a pass over his last three games and has just two total targets in those games so his usage in the passing game has become non-existent. |
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6 |
13.5 |
$6,200 |
With no Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Darrel Williams will once again get the start for the Chiefs. Williams was ok in his time as the starter for the Chiefs earlier this season Williams is a better receiving back than he is as a true runner as he's only averaging 3.7 yards-per-carry on the year and could see some time lost to Derrick Gore who the Chiefs have utilized quite heavily over the last two weeks as he has 21 carries over those two games. If Gore wasn't involved, Williams would be ranked higher, but it very easily could be a committee approach this week. |
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Wide Receiver |
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Rank |
Player |
Projection |
Salary |
Comment |
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1 |
21 |
$10,000 |
The only question for Kupp this week is whether you can build a lineup that you like while having to pay up for the $10,200 salary. Kupp is taking on the Ravens without Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters and should have no issues getting open in this game this week. |
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2 |
13.5 |
$7,000 |
Fanduel's pricing algorithm seems to be broken here as continuing to price Tee Higgins at only $7,000 is far too low. Higgins has been on an absolute tear as of late topping 100 yards in four of his last five outings incluidng a 194 yard 2 touchdown performance last week. |
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3 |
13.1 |
$7,000 |
The Dolphins take on a Titans defense that are the second-best run defense in football, and the way to beat this team is through the air as they're allowing the 6th-most passing yards per game this season. This should be an outing where Waddle is utilized heavily in this game as Waddle has 9 receptions or more in each of his last three games and has developed into a number one receiver for the Dolphins. |
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4 |
15.1 |
$7,500 |
A.J. Brown looked better than ever in the Titans comeback win against the 49ers as the receiver had 11 receptions for 145 yards and a touchdown. The only concern for Brown is that he has been hit or miss throughout his career having a massive ceiling, but also having a floor that is lower than most receivers in this price range. He's taking on a Dolphins team that have allowed 6 100-yard games to opposing wide receivers and are in the bottom-10 in points allowed to the position. |
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5 |
11.0 |
$6,500 |
If you're looking to save some salary this week, Brandin Cooks is likely that player that you're going to want to target. Coming off of consecutive 100-yard performances, Cooks takes on a 49ers defense that was absolutely shredded last week against A.J. Brown and the Titans offense en route to a comeback win for Tennessee. |
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Tight End |
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Rank |
Player |
Projection |
Salary |
Comment |
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1 |
9.2 |
$5,500 |
Since arriving in Arizona, Ertz has found himself a nice role with this offense. Ertz has caught five or more passes in four of his last five games with the only exception being a weird game against the Bears in which the Cardinals only threw for 123 yards in Kyler Murray's first game back from injury. With no DeAndre Hopkins, the Cardinals are going to have to continue to rely on Ertz as well as their other wide receivers, but Ertz is the most consistent player in this offense. |
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2 |
14.4 |
$8,700 |
What Mark Andrews is doing right now is simply incredible. Over his last three games, Andrews has topped 110 yards in each of those contests, has 8 or more receptions and has scored four touchdowns in those three games. He's simply a different player with Lamar Jackson not in the lineup as he becomes a focal point of this offense and has been dominant. The only problem for Andrews this week is his price as at $8,700, it is a very difficult salary to afford, but if he has that performance once again, |
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3 |
10.1 |
Photos provided by USA TODAY Sports
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Daily FF
Josh Allen
Keenan Allen
Mark Andrews
Braxton Berrios
A.J. Brown
Antonio Brown
Joe Burrow
James Conner
Brandin Cooks
Andy Dalton
Chase Edmonds
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Zach Ertz
Jimmy Garoppolo
Antonio Gibson
Dallas Goedert
Kenny Golladay
Tee Higgins
Tyreek Hill
DeAndre Hopkins
Jordan Howard
Marlon Humphrey
Tyler Huntley
Lamar Jackson
Josh Jacobs
Collin Johnson
Ronald Jones II
Cooper Kupp
Trey Lance
Trevor Lawrence
Sony Michel
Elijah Mitchell
Joe Mixon
David Montgomery
Kyler Murray
Dare Ogunbowale
Jaret Patterson
Marcus Peters
James Robinson
John Ross
Miles Sanders
Boston Scott
Sterling Shepard
Devin Singletary
Darius Slayton
Darius Slay
Matthew Stafford
Jonathan Taylor
Kadarius Toney
Jaylen Waddle
Darrel Williams
Jonathan Williams
Zach Wilson
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