Sunday Morning Update
Check back each Sunday Morning around 11:45 EST for any updates based on the actives/inactives and Sunday news. Note, we will always put something on here even if it is as simple as “no update”.
PSA:
I’ve been working on the Primary Lineup for 14 hours over the last two days. I’ll continue to be working on this throughout the night and into tomorrow. Almost assuredly there will be a Sunday Morning Update even if there are no injuries.
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Sunday Morning Update
I can't tell if I'm just overthinking this week, or if this is the most difficult week of the season. Typically, we have had guys sub $6,500 that we are at least ok with playing, but the pricing is extremely tight this week.
Let's start with my thoughts on the Chargers situation. Jalen Guyton is an ok play, but I've started to come off of him a little bit this week as the week has progressed. The floor is likely pretty low, and if you wanted to go down in that range, a player like Jamison Crowder may be safer this week. I don't really love either of them this week.
In terms of lineup construction, there is a fairly significant change that I'm making this week. I'm pulling Travis Kelce out of my lineup in favor of Austin Hooper, simply because of how it impacts the rest of the lineup. By going from Kelce to Hooper, it allows me to do a couple of things:
1) I can upgrade Ezekiel Elliott to Leonard Fournette. This is big, as the more I've thought about this one, the more worried I am about Elliott's rushing upside. He didn't look right at the end of the Thursday game, and do worry about his ability to take on a full work load. The matchup is a difficult one as well as the
2) It allows me to move off of Jalen Guyton to a "safer" player such as Mike Williams or Tee Higgins. Guyton is fine, but he is a pure punt play. He very easily could end up with 2 catches for 24 yards and I don't think it would surprise anyone.
Primary Cash Lineup- Note, if you feel more comfortable playing Mike Williams over Higgins, there is enough salary to do so.
- QB Taysom Hill, NO, $7,700
- RB Leonard Fournette, TB, $7,600
- RB Alvin Kamara, NO, $9,000
- WR Tee Higgins, CIN, $6,800
- WR Chris Godwin, TB, $7,700
- WR Hunter Renfrow, LV, $6,700
- TE Austin Hooper, CLE, $5,000
- Flex RB Jeff Wilson, SF, $4,900
- TD Denver, $4,400
SITUATIONS THAT STAND OUT TO THIS WEEK ON THE MAIN SLATE.
Low scoring week, only three teams make the cutoff of situations that standout this week.
- Kansas City (vs Las Vegas) 28.75 points
- Tampa Bay (vs Buffalo) 28.75 points
- LA Chargers (vs NY Giants) 26.5 points
- Dallas (at Washington) 26.25 points
- Tennessee (vs Jacksonville) 26 points
- Denver (vs Detroit) 26 points
Week 13 Recap
Week 13 is going to be a week that I remember for a long time. Short answer is, I screwed up and am still beating myself up over it. For those of you who don’t know we had what was almost a perfect lineup last week, however the Darrell Henderson being active news forced a late swap that was absolutely devastating as it swapped out Sony Michel, Diontae Johnson, and George Kittle for Van Jefferson, Elijah Mitchell and Foster Moreau. Absolutely horrendous mistake.
For those of you who used the primary cash lineup and didn’t make the change, you guys are rock stars and should have been handsomely rewarded for that as the lineup was a big one.
So, yes, last week ends the streak of winning weeks for this lineup based on the recommended late swap, but I still feel good about the process of building lineups. Going on a limb when very few people did to recommend Justin Jefferson and George Kittle when very few people did is the type of thingw e are going to continue to do. We’re on to Week 14.
INJURY UNLOCKS OPPORTUNITY?
A ton of injuries to watch this week.
- Melvin Gordon is questionable this week with a hip injury.
- Tony Pollard is questionable this week with a foot injury. If he’s unable to go, Ezekiel Elliott should be in line to see a much heavier workload although the knee for Elliott continues to be a concern. Washington’s defense is tough as they’ve allowed the fewest rushing yards in the NFL.
- Joe Mixon is questionable this week with an illness after being a late add to the injury report. If he’s unable to play, Samaje Perine becomes an interesting play this week.
- The Browns will be without both Harrison Bryant (ankle) and David Njoku (Covid) which will leave Austin Hooper as their only healthy tight end.
- The Lions will be without both D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams (Covid), which will leave Jermar Jefferson and Godwin Igwebuike as sharing the responsibility at running back this week.
- Elijah Mitchell will miss this week with a concussion. Jeff Wilson will likely get the start, but it’s a similar situation to Detroit in that Ja’Mychal Hasty should have a role in this offense.
- Keenan Allen will miss this week with Covid, but it does appear that Mike Williams will play. Jalen Guyton and Josh Palmer both should see some additional workload this week with Allen’s absence.
- Non-injury related, but the Texans have switched from Tyrod Taylor to Davis Mills for the rest of the season.
- Elijah Moore has been placed on IR with a calf injury which is a major bummer as we had him written up as a solid cash game play this week.
Limited Option Week
This is a week where there are not many ways to go within cash games as there are a lot of “avoid” offenses such as the Jets, Texans, Lions, Giants, and then typically avoid offenses in Jaguars, Falcons, Broncos, Panthers. This leaves just a few teams that we really want to play on this slate which could lead to some overlap.
Some key decisions you need to make on this slate are what you are doing at quarterback, as expect Tom Brady to be popular this week, along with the wide receiver as Mike Williams (who I’m not recommending), is going to be popular this week. Williams is risky as we have evidenced at his low ranking in the cash game rankings below, so approach him with caution.
We are going back to the same format from last week based on some positive feedback however the feedback we got was limited. I'm open to doing this article in whatever format you prefer, so whether it is a ranking system which has us talking about more players, or more of some of the theory and strategy we can do that as well.
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Quarterback |
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Rank |
Player |
Projection |
Salary |
Comment |
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1 |
20.8 |
$7,700 |
Taysom Hill looked great in his first start this season rushing for 101 yards while throwing for 264. This week, he gets to face the Jets who might have the worst defense in the NFL allowing the most fantasy points to opposing running backs and have allowed 2+ passing touchdowns in four straight games (Minshew, Tyrod, Tua, Josh Allen) |
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2 |
22.2 |
$8,200 |
Tom Brady has not been as consistent as we would typically see, but he is coming off of a massive game throwing for 368 yards and 4 touchdowns. The Bills defense is not nearly as scary as it was with TreDavious White who is out for the season. Brady and company should get close to 300 yards with multiple touchdowns this week. |
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3 |
22.6 |
$7,900 |
Lamar Jackson has as much upside as anyone on this slate, but his floor is fairly low. Jackson threw four interceptions in the last outing against the Browns, but the good news was that he ran for 68 yards in that game. If they're able to control the ball more this week, Jackson should have upside to top 100 yards and score a rushing touchdown for the first time since Week 2. |
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4 |
22.2 |
$8,500 |
Mahomes owns the Raiders having thrown for 340+ yards in four of his last five games. This is a get right game for the Chiefs as their offense continues to lack consistency this season. |
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Running Back |
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Rank |
Player |
Projection |
Salary |
Comment |
|
1 |
Jeff Wilson |
8.7 |
$4,900 |
At $4,900, Wilson saw 58% of snaps and 20 touches the last time he was the lead back in San Francisco. It's too good of a price to pass up. |
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2 |
17.1 |
$7,600 |
The Patriots showed the game plan of how to beat the Bills in the windy game last week. Fournette with no Antonio Brown has seen a massive uptick in reception volume |
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3 |
17.8 |
$9,000 |
This one is going to be somewhat controversial to have Kamara over Ekeler, but the Jets have allowed 16 running back touchdowns over the last 6 games and are allowing 179 yards per game to the position. |
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4 |
Ezekiel Elliott (If Pollard is out) |
15.7 |
$6,900 |
There is some risk here, but to get Elliott at just $6,900 in a game in which he should get 20 touches is a value regardless of the matchup. |
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5 |
18.6 |
$9,200 |
There is a lot to like about Austin Ekeler this week. At $9,200, though he is a little bit risky as you're paying for his production over the last four games where he has scored 7 touchdowns. The Giants run defense has been better as they have held Leonard Fournette, Josh Jacobs, Myles Gaskin, Chuba Hubbard, and Miles Sanders all under 10 FanDuel points over their last 6 games. |
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6 |
16.3 |
$7,400 |
If J.D. McKissic was out, Gibson would likely be in the top 3 this week, but with McKissic looking like he is going to return, it limits Gibson's upside due to the lack of reception potential. Even still, Gibson has been a workhorse as of late topping 95 yards in each of his last three games. |
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7 |
14.3 |
$6,700 |
There's going to be a lot of hype on Javonte Williams based on his Prime Time performance last week. The problem is that with Melvin Gordon healthy, I don't see the Broncos immediately consolidating a committee backfield into giving Williams 100% of the snaps. |
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Wide Receiver |
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Rank |
Player |
Projection |
Salary |
Comment |
|
1 |
12.9 |
$6,700 |
Renfrow tops the list once again this week as FanDuel continues to mis-price this guy. With Darren Waller out, Renfrow should once again be in line for a massive workload coming off of back-to-back 100-yard games. This should be a high scoring game that will force the Raiders to throw quite a bit this week. |
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2 |
14.7 |
$7,700 |
Chris Godwin just continues to produce as he simply dominated the Falcons last week with 15 receptions for 143 yards. |
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3 |
11.9 |
$6,800 |
Higgins has topped 75 yards in four of his last five games as he has developed into the most dependable receiver on the Bengals roster. With Joe Mixon banged up and not practicing this week, the Bengals may go to a more pass heavy offense. |
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4 |
8.4 |
$5,200 |
Guyton is expected to get most of the slot work in this game with Keenan Allen being out. The matchup could not be any better for Guyton as he'll be defended by Jarren Williams who went undrafted in last year's draft and made his NFL debut last week. Guyton is simply better than Josh Palmer right now. |
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5 |
13.1 |
$6,900 |
With no Keenan Allen this week, Mike Williams is expected to take on a big workload. There is some risk with Williams even with Allen out however, as he is a big play receiver who is averaging just 6 targets per game over his last 7 games. He's going to be popular, but my model and strategy wants receivers who get consistent targets. If you want to cancel out against the field for Williams, taking him is fine, but this is a play going against the crowd. |
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6 |
11.2 |
$6,400 |
The Ravens secondary is a complete mess at the moment as both Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters are out for the year. The Browns desperately need to get Jarvis Landry going coming off of his first 100-yard receiving game of the season. |
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Tight End |
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Rank |
Player |
Projection |
Salary |
Comment |
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1 |
14.1 |
$7,500 |
If you can find a way to go up to Travis Kelce, you should strongly consider it. Kelce has dominated the Raiders as he had 117 yards earlier this year, has was his five straight games of 90 yards or more against Las Vegas. He's inconsistent, and expensive, but he has the most upside on this slate. |
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2 |
7.1 |
$5,000 |
With no David Njoku or Harrison Bryant, Hooper should be the guy that the Browns look to this week in order to get consistent production in their tight end heavy offense. |
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3 |
13.3 |
$7,100 |
George Kittle once again is an excellent play this week as he's taking on a Bengals defense that have only faced one elite tight end on the year allowing 116 yards to Darren Waller back in Week 11. With Deebo Samuel still not 100%, Kittle should play a large role in this offense. |
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4 |
13.3 |
$7,000 |
Gronkowski has re-emerged as an elite tight end as of late as he has 8 or more targets
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