Sunday Morning Update
Check back in starting at 11:00 AM EST for updates to this lineup and thoughts on news that breaks on Sunday Morning.
Sunday Morning Update: 11:30AM EST
No surprises on the injury front this week. We are going to roll with the lineup that was built yesterday.
- QB Russell Wilson, SEA, $7,700
- RB Alvin Kamara, NO, $9,000
- RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR, $6,300
- WR Davante Adams, GB, $8,100
- WR Deebo Samuel, SF, $6,900
- WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA, $5,400
- TE Travis Kelce, KC $8,400
- Flex RB Mike Davis, ATL, $5,400
- TD NY Jets, $3,000
Let me know your thoughts on the article knotts@footballguys.com or via Twitter
SITUATIONS THAT STAND OUT TO THIS WEEK ON THE MAIN SLATE.
- Buffalo (vs Houston) 31.75 points
- Kansas City (at Philadelphia) 30.75 points
- LA Rams (vs Arizona) 29.75 points
- Dallas (vs Carolina) 28.25 points
- San Francisco (vs Seattle) 27.5 points
Week 3 Recap
The Sunday Morning Update was critical last week as it came through with an impressive 166.48 points.
What went right:
- The last two weeks have been incredibly easy thanks to Cooper Kupp (wasn’t on the main slate in Week 1). The guy simply has been dominant thus far this season averaging 8.3 receptions, 122 yards and 1.7 touchdowns per game. He’s the clear number one receiver in Los Angeles and with Matthew Stafford at quarterback he is putting up Calvin Johnson type numbers in Los Angeles.
- Justin Jefferson had a big day last week with a big day as he tallied 9 receptions, 118 yards and a touchdown. This one was a last minute change as we were on Chase Claypool (who also had a good day) up until the Alexander Mattison news broke and then were able to upgrade between Justin Jefferson and Chris Godwin. Both players were in strong consideration, but Jefferson ended up winning out due to just a more favorable matchup. These Seahawks defense is not good as they are the 7th worst pass defense, and 3rd worst run defense.
- The value plays in general were all solid. Saquon Barkley had his best game of the year with 94 total yards and a touchdown, Alexander Mattison was a free square essentially with the news Dalvin Cook was out, and Austin Ekeler was solid with 107 yards and a touchdown. Having a touchdown out of every running back and wide receiver is not something that is going to happen often as most of these players are between 40-60% scoring a touchdown in terms of Sportsbook odds each week.
What went wrong:
- Darren Waller continues to disappoint after a monster Week 1. Getting just 7.9 points out of a tight end who is $7,400 is not good enough and something to monitor going forward. It would be one thing if the Raiders were struggling to throw the ball, but Derek Carr leads the NFL in passing yards. Henry Ruggs, Bryan Edwards, Darren Waller, and Hunter Renfrow are all within 33 yards of each other in terms of total yards this season.
- Lamar Jackson was just ok at the quarterback position, but did not return the $8,400 price tag. This was just a weird game all around. Total yardage was fine for Lamar as he threw for 287 yards and ran for 58, but the problem was that Marquise Brown dropped three touchdowns which just crushed Jackson’s day. Good play, just poor results.
CASH GAME TIP WEEK 4
Using Percent Roster Projects for Cash Games
“Percent Rostered Projections” or “Ownership Projections are a tremendously valuable tool in GPP’s, but don’t completely disregard them for cash games. If you aren’t familiar with them, they essentially attempt to predict what the most popular players will be within a GPP contests.
So how can they be utilized in cash game if they’re intended to project GPP’s? A large portion of how these projections are calculated is on a cost per dollar perspective. The way to use them is as a starting point to see where your opposition is looking to build your lineup. We talked about how highly rostered Najee Harris would be and it could make sense to play him to essentially cancel him out from your opponents.
INJURY UNLOCKS OPPORTUNITY?
This is a week where the Sunday Morning Update is going to be critical.
The Titans wide receiver room is an absolute disaster. A.J. Brown and Julio Jones are both ruled out this week. This leaves Chester Rogers and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine as the top two receivers in Tennessee. At $5,100 and $5,300 respectively, you probably don’t need to go with them in cash games this week as there are other receivers in the mid-5k range that seem safer (Jaylen Waddle, Curtis Samuel). What this likely means is Derrick Henry is a big decision this week as the Titans should be giving him as much volume as he can handle.
The Giants will be without Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton this game. This should mean that there will be a heavy dosage of Saquon Barkley who caught six passes last week. Barkley will be one of the most popular players on this slate at just $7,000, but the matchup is a very difficult one going up against the Saints. Barkley has struggled running the ball this year as he’s averaging just 3.4 yards-per-carry this year. He’s still capable of breaking a long run at any time, but his style has been to rely on those long runs. Kenny Golladay and Evan Engram could both be interesting value plays on this slate.
The Steelers receivers appear to be pretty banged up as well. Chase Claypool is trending towards being out after a late missed practice, and then being downgraded late in the week. JuJu Smith-Schuster will play, but did miss practice on Wednesday. The challenge is this Steelers team is a disaster at the moment and they’re priced up as Najee Harris is $8,200 and Diontae Johnson is $7,000 both of which are too high to justify playing in cash games this week.
George Kittle’s situation is a little bit strange. Shanahan spoke and said that Kittle was questionable with a calf injury, but he wasn’t on the injury report, which means he’s probably fine. It is slightly concerning when Kittle mentioned “I’m going to do everything I can to be on the field Sunday. If my body says I can go, I’ll be out there.”
Lamar Jackson is someone to watch this week as he’s dealing with a back injury. At the very least, he’s probably someone who you want to avoid in cash games as he’s facing what could be the best defense in football in Denver, and with a back injury it seems unlikely that he will run as much as normal.
Difficult Week and Lineup Thoughts
This is by far the hardest week of the season thus far. The challenge that compared to most week’s there simply is not that value play that you want to put into your lineup to be able to justify paying up for a top-end running back. The past two weeks, we have been building lineups that have been projected to put up 140+ points. This week, it’s unlikely
Gaining an edge at tight end:
This week the choice really comes down to George Kittle or Travis Kelce in cash games. If you’re playing another tight end, on the lower end, it can work, but you’re hoping for a touchdown which for the little amount that you are actually going to save it’s best to play one of those two players.
A large portion of the field is going to go with George Kittle at the tight end position. While the price is a good one, the matchup is not a particularly good one and he is dealing with a calf injury. Over the last two years, in Kittle’s three games against Seattle, he is averaging just 5.3 receptions for 64 yards and has not scored a touchdown in those three contests.
Where people may not be looking is at Travis Kelce. At $8,200, he’s simply a tough player to fit into your lineup. However, in terms of points projected compared to the rest of the position, Kelce is projected to score 17.24 FanDuel points this week. This is 7 points more than his next closest tight end. The Eagles were torched by Dalton Schultz last week as he tallied 6 receptions, 80 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Kelce is just as safe as it comes at the position
Should you spend up at Running Back?
The big question this week is what to do with Derrick Henry and/or Alvin Kamara? Or where to go at running back?
Derrick Henry $10,200:
It’s a tough one, because on one hand, logic tells you that with no Julio Jones/A.J. Brown that Derrick Henry should see as much volume as he possibly can see this week. On the other hand, at a price tag of $10,200 he essentially needs two touchdowns to pay off value. The Jets have been middle of the pack against the running back position as they’re allowing 91 rushing yards to the running back positions (4.0 Yards-per-carry) as the return of linebacker C.J. Moseley has done wonders for this defense.
Alvin Kamara $9,000:
Kamara is like the greatest roller coaster in the world. When you’re standing in line for it to start, the excitement is unparalleled, and while most of the time it is an unbelievable experience, sometimes it makes you sick to your stomach. At $9,000 the price is high, but Kamara has as much upside as anyone on this slate including the $10,200 Derrick Henry. The Giants defense is one that has been statistically great outside of a 70-yard Melvin Gordon touchdown back in Week 1. However, they have not faced a running back that is the caliber of Kamara. With Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton being out, this could be a low-paced game which could limit the opportunity for Kamara.
Other Options:
Ezekiel Elliott $7,000:
Look a lot of people wrote off Ezekiel Elliott after his Week 1 struggles and the emergence of Tony Pollard having a role in this offense. The matchup in Week 1 against Tampa Bay was always a difficult one and not something we should hold against Elliott. Over the last two weeks, Elliott has been great as he has 97 yards and 116 yards with three touchdowns in those two games. At just $7,000 he is a fantastic cash option and is one of the favorites to find the end-zone this week. The Panthers defense is one that has been good, but they haven’t really been challenged as they’ve faced the Jets, Texans led by Davis Mills, and the Saints when they had most of their coaching staff out with Covid. Yetur Gross-Matus for the Panthers will also be out which is a critical injury along the defensive line.
Mike Davis $5,400:
Mike Davis is going to be somewhat popular this week, and it is simply because of the price and the lack of low-end options this week. Davis has not been great this season, as he has failed to find the end-zone and has failed to top 50 yards rushing this season. However, he still is seeing over 60% of the snap counts for the Falcons, has 11 receptions over his last two games, and has faced Tampa Bay and a New York Giants run defense that could be better than we think.
Chuba Hubbard $6,300:
Hubbard is an interesting option this week at the running back position. Hubbard who was a fourth-round running back in the NFL draft, looked good in his relief of Christian McCaffrey who went down with a hamstring injury. There is some speculation that Hubbard will be limited due to a potential split carry situation with Royce Freeman, which is a concern, but dating back to college, Hubbard is best situated as a volume running back who gets better as the game progresses. Matt Ruhle has said that the team will not go away from their offensive game plan which could mean a lot of opportunities for Hubbard this week, as they do not have a game plan that historically has not rotated their backs.
Decision:
As much as Ezekiel Elliott should be a cash game play this week, he just doesn’t fit into a lineup that is particularly attractive. Derrick Henry is a fantastic option, but you just sacrifice too much to spend over $10,000 for a running back who does not do much in the passing game.
Going with: Chuba Hubbard, Mike Davis, Alvin Kamara
KEY CASH CORE
Travis Kelce $8,200
With George Kittle being hobbled, the difference between Kelce and the next closest tight end is staggering. Footballguys has a 7-point difference between Kelce and the next closest tight end which is Kittle. Philadelphia were destroyed by the tight end position last week as Dalton Schultz had 80 yards and 2 touchdowns on 6 catches last week. Kelce is the most consistent pass catching player in the NFL including wide receivers. Kelce has topped 13.9 FanDuel points in 10 straight games, and has topped 15.8 in 9 of his last 10 games.
Deebo Samuel $6,900
2021 could very easily be the breakout season for Deebo Samuel. Samuel started off hot topping 90 yards in each of his first two games. While Samuel did struggle last week against Green Bay, that is entirely Green Bay’s game plan which is to take out the number one wide receiver and force other players to beat you. The 49ers have publically expressed their displeasure with Brandon Aiyuk’s lack of development which led him to being benched in Week 1. This is entirely Samuel’s team and opportunity to develop into a top wide receiver in the NFL. The matchup this week is a fantastic one as the Seahawks are allowing the third-most passing yards thus far this season as they are struggling to find a replacement for Shaq Griffin and Ahkello Witherspoon both who departed in the offseason.
Jaylen Waddle $5,400
This could be a critical decision this week as choosing between Jaylen Waddle, Chester Rogers, and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine as we look for a cheap wide receiver to fill out the roster. Waddle was the second wide-receiver taken after missing most of the 2020 season with an ankle injury. Last week, we started to see the development take place for Waddle as he was a key focal point of this offense with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback. Waddle caught 12 of his 13 targets last week, but really hasn’t been fully unleashed yet as he is averaging just 7.6 yards per catch. Waddle didn’t run a 40 at the combine, but reports are he was neck-and-neck with Henry Ruggs at the 2020 combine who ran a 4.27. There is plenty of upside for Waddle, and the talent is just too great for the price at just $5,400. Waddle is likely going to see a lot of Isaiah Rodgers lined up against him. So far this year, Rodgers has been the most targeted cornerback in football which should line up well for Waddle this week.
LINEUPS-
SAMPLE ROSTER 1 ($60K) – PRIMARY CASH- (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 130.8)
- QB Russell Wilson, SEA, $7,700
- RB Alvin Kamara, NO, $9,000
- RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR, $6,300
- WR Davante Adams, GB, $8,100
- WR Deebo Samuel, SF, $6,900
- WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA, $5,400
- TE Travis Kelce, KC $8,400
- Flex RB Mike Davis, ATL, $5,400
- TD NY Jets, $3,000
SAMPLE ROSTER 2 ($60K) – WR Heavy Lineup (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 130.7)
- QB Josh Allen, BUF, $8,500
- RB Ezekiel Elliott, DAL, $7,000
- RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR, $6,300
- WR Davante Adams, GB, $8,100
- WR Justin Jefferson, Min, $7,800
- WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA, $5,400
- TE Travis Kelce, KC $8,400
- Flex RB Mike Davis, ATL, $5,400
- TD NY Jets, $3,000
SAMPLE ROSTER 3 ($60K) – Seattle/SF Game Stack- GPP (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 127.9)
- QB Russell Wilson, SEA, $7,700
- RB Ezekiel Elliott, DAL, $7,000
- RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR, $6,300
- WR Justin Jefferson, MIN, $7,800
- WR Deebo Samuel, SF, $6,900
- WR DK Metcalf, SEA, $7,700
- TE Travis Kelce, KC $8,400
- Flex RB Mike Davis, ATL, $5,400
- TD NY Jets, $3,000