Quarterback
Taysom Hill, NO (vs Kansas City)
Hill isn’t a sleeper any more after putting up top 10 fantasy numbers over his four starts to date, but many will be reluctant to play him in the fantasy playoffs. As long as Drew Brees isn’t active, Hill should have an opportunity to rack up fantasy points trying to keep up with Patrick Mahomes II in the dome. Even if he struggles early against Steve Spagnuolo’s defense, that will create a garbage time game script. He’s a breakaway threat as a runner and an improving passer with a lot of talent on the other end of his passes. It might have seemed absurd at the beginning of the season, but Hill is a strong QB1 this week.
UPDATE: Drew Brees has been announced as the Week 15 starter, so bench Hill.
Philip Rivers, IND (vs Houston)
Rivers is a safe play who should have no problem putting up at least 250 yards and two scores on the ailing Texans pass defense. T.Y. Hilton is healthy and playing well, both of the running backs add value to their targets, and Jack Doyle is also peaking going into this must win matchup against a Texans team that is running out of gas. Rivers is a fine quarterback play in six point pass touchdown league, or leagues with distance touchdown or passing yardage bonuses.
Jalen Hurts, PHI (at Arizona)
Hurts was solid for fantasy in first outing as a starter and should be a high floor play again this week. He isn’t as dangerous a runner as Kyler Murray, or last week’s opponent Taysom Hill, but he is leaving the pocket quickly if nothing comes open, which should give him a big cushion of rushing yards if he isn’t very effective as a passer. Vance Joseph’s defense isn’t a shutdown unit and if they blitz a lot or play a lot of man coverage, that could up Hurts floor and ceiling this week.
Gardner Minshew, JAX (at Baltimore)
Minshew is back and he brought some pep to the step of the Jaguars offense. They will face a Ravens defense that is banged up at the back end and probably exhausted from an epic battle against the Browns on Monday night. Minshew was actually a low QB1 before he was benched and his injured thumb gives him a good excuse for his fantasy production trailing off before his benching. He’s a solid QB2/Superflex option.
Running Back
Jeff Wilson, Raheem Mostert, SF (at Dallas)
The Bengals fumblefest last week notwithstanding, the Cowboys are one of the worst run defenses in the league, and they are facing one of the best running games in the league. Wilson is healthier and should get goal line touches, with some injury upside if Raheem Mostert’s ankle acts up, so he’s the safer play. Mostert has the potential to take any touch to the house and make your week even though he also comes with re-injury risk and low volume risk. It’s not difficult to picture both backs hitting the way Wilson and Jerick McKinnon did against the Giants earlier this year. The Cowboys have given up some big games to opposing backfields, but usually concentrated in the lead back, so this is a good convergence of matchup and quality situation.
Gus Edwards, BAL (vs Jacksonville)
The Ravens running game was mulching the Browns and with Marquse Brown and Miles Boykin out on the covid list, the Ravens should focus on the ground and pound approach even more. Edwards finished two scores last week and he could also get mop up work late if the Jaguars can’t compete in this one.
Damien Harris, NE (at Miami)
As long as Harris’s back issue doesn’t keep him from playing, he should be in line for a huge workload against the Dolphins. Bill Belichick should frustrate Tua Tagovailoa, who is playing with a bunch of injured targets, which will keep the game low scoring and allow the Patriots to play ultra safe on offense, which translates to feeding Harris and the rushing attack. He has a chance for his third 100-yard game this year.
Zack Moss, BUF (at Denver) **Saturday**
Moss is a long shot this week, but he is still the #1 running back (if you don’t count Josh Allen) at the goal line, and he looked sharp closing out the win over the Steelers last week. The Broncos run defense has given up ten rushing scores in the last five games, and they allowed 171 yards to Bills running backs in this matchup last year.
J.D. McKissic, WAS (vs Seattle)
McKissic is only a play if Alex Smith is in to feed him with targets. He also showed his prowess as a runner last week, and could be more of a dual threat this week than he has been at any point this year since Antonio Gibson is likely to sit and Peyton Barber has been ineffective. Receiving backs like Chase Edmonds, Boston Scott, Rex Burkhead, and Jerick McKinnon have all put up at least 8 PPR points as a receiver against the Seahawks this year.
Benny Snell, PIT (at Cincinnati)
As long as Conner is out, Snell should be a safe RB2 this week. He’ll likely get at least 15 carries and goal line opportunities, which could be numerous against the Bengals. Snell should persevere behind a less than imposing run blocking Steelers offensive line, but his fresh legs and energy should result in a good amount of yards after contact, and there’s the potential for multiple scores on Monday night.
Wide Receiver
Keke Coutee, Chad Hansen, HOU (at Indianapolis)
When in doubt while setting playoff lineups at wide receiver, try to get attached to a good quarterback. Deshaun Watson has already gotten 100-yard games out of this duo against the Colts just two weeks ago, and Brandin Cooks should return this week to keep the Colts from clamping down on the Texans offense the way the Bears did last week. Hansen is a better PPR play with his target consistency over the last two games, while Coutee has a higher big play and touchdown ceiling.
Tyron Johnson, LAC (at Las Vegas) **Thursday**
Mike Williams is almost certainly out and Keenan Allen will likely be limited if he plays, so there’s a good chance Johnson will be a primary target outside along with Jalen Guyton. Justin Herbert favored Johnson last week with seven targets, which he converted to a 6-55-1 line. He also caught a ball for 50 in the first matchup despite playing only three snaps and getting one target. The Raiders pass defense has been terrible lately and should encourage you to take a chance on a player that is facing them even if it means committing early in the week.
UPDATE: Williams and Allen will play, but both will be on snap counts, so all Chargers wide receivers are unpredictable plays
Nelson Agholor, LV (vs Los Angeles Chargers) **Thursday**
Agholor has emerged as the team’s #1 receiver and that role should be cemented with Henry Ruggs on the covid list this week. Agholor has at least nine targets in three of the last four games, and the Chargers have given up four scores to wideouts in the last two weeks, including two to Patriots wide receivers. Agholor scored in the first matchup and he’s likely to do it again this week.
Keelan Cole, JAX (at Baltimore)
Cole has scored in three of Gardner Minshew’s seven targets, and he caught Minshew’s only touchdown pass when he relieved Mike Glennon last week. Cole has also posted a 6-143 game with Minshew this year and he led the Jaguars in targets after Minshew entered the game last week. The Ravens secondary is beat up and gave up multiple big plays downfield to the Browns receivers last week, so there’s some upside for Cole here despite the matchup looking bad on paper.
Russell Gage, ATL (vs Tampa Bay)
Julio Jones is unlikely to play this week, which should free up targets for Gage, who also threw a long touchdown last week (he threw one earlier in the year that Julio Jones dropped too). Gage has at least 12 PPR points in two of the last three games that Jones has missed or been limited in, and the Bucs should force Matt Ryan to dwell in the short and intermediate passing game with their blitz tendencies and pass rush strength. Gage is a safe WR3/Flex in PPR leagues.
Emmanuel Sanders, NO (vs Kansas City)
Sanders is a boom/bust play, but it’s clear that he still has the speed to separate deep, and Taysom Hill has the arm and field vision to find him. In addition to the long score last week, Hill and Sanders hooked up for a long score in Hill’s first start, but it was wiped out by penalty. The potential for this game to be high scoring opens the door for more deep shots to Sanders in an attempt to keep up
Tight End
Irv Smith, MIN (vs Chicago)
Kyle Rudolph is trending towards not playing, which sets Smith up for a chance to reproduce something close to his 4-63-1 line from last week, which is strong for a tight end at this point in the 2020 season. Rudolph himself posted a 4-63 line against the Bears in the first matchup and the Bears have allowed six tight end touchdowns in the last seven games and Jordan Akins had one hit him in the chest that he lost in the sun last week.
Tyler Higbee, LAR (vs New York Jets)
Higbee has had three scores already this year, and everything the Rams call should work against the Jets. The Jets have allowed six tight end scores in their last four games, and at least one in every game during that span. Darren Waller posted one of the top ten games in fantasy tight end history just two weeks ago, and last week the no name Seahawks tight ends posted 5-59-1. Higbee has the highest ceiling of any tight end outside of the top 10 this week.
Jack Doyle, IND (vs Houston)
Doyle just reasserted himself atop the snap and target count for the Colts tight ends with Mo Alie-Cox’s knee acting up and the Texans just allowed 8-64-1 to Bears tight ends last week. The Colts tight ends combined for 5-46 in Week 13, so there should be a reasonable floor for Doyle in terms of targets, but there could also be touchdown upside with the Colts likely knocking on the door in the red zone many times in this matchup.
Dan Arnold, ARI (vs Philadelphia)
These days, if you can get one catch for a touchdown from your tight end, you did pretty well. Arnold has been doing that a bit lately, even catching two balls for two touchdowns a few weeks ago! The Eagles can be soft against tight ends, allowing scores to the position in each of the last two weeks, a three score game to Tyler Higbee earlier this year, and a 15-183 game to George Kittle. Arnold is a fine what-the-heck tight end play if you are stumped this week.
