Quarterback
Jared Goff, LAR (vs Seattle)
Goff is facing the easiest defense/matchup for quarterbacks, but is also coming off of a performance vs. Miami that exposed his achilles heel - performing against pressure - and the Seahawks just sacked Josh Allen seven times. The Rams defense has occasionally had some success against Russell Wilson, which would keep this game low scoring, but that was before Wilson put on his chef’s hat. There’s risk here, but there’s a very high ceiling.
Alex Smith, WAS (at Detroit)
Smith looked much more capable of hanging with NFL defense last week than he did the first time he took the field earlier this year, and it’s not clear if the Lions have an NFL defense right now. In the last two Detroit games Philip Rivers and Kirk Cousins each threw for three scores against them, so Smith has a chance to be a solid play this week.
Philip Rivers, IND (vs Tennessee) **Thursday**
One quarterback has failed to account for multiple touchdowns against the Titans - Drew Lock all the way back in Week 1. That includes Gardner Minshew, Kirk Cousins, and Nick Foles. If you have to go to the waiver wire for a quarterback this week, you could do worse than Rivers, who will likely get T.Y. Hilton back this week.
Derek Carr, LV (vs Denver)
The Broncos pass defense has been vulnerable to the deep shot lately, which is exactly where Carr will be most likely to attack them in the Raiders vertical pass game. Carr has thrown multiple touchdown passes in every game this year except the Wind Bowl vs Cleveland and an opening week thriller against the Panthers when Josh Jacobs scored three times. He’s only a sleeper because the low attempt games vs. the Browns and Chargers the last two weeks have lowered his ceiling, so there is a risk of that here if Drew Lock plays terribly for the first three quarters again this week.
Running Back
Troymaine Pope, Kalen Ballage, LAC (at Miami)
The Chargers backfield is very difficult to predict this week, with Justin Jackson probably sitting as he rests his knee, Joshua Kelley likely playing but having the least trust of the staff, Pope having played the best most recently, but coming off of a concussion, and Ballage balling out last week, but still technically on the practice squad as of this writing. If Pope is active, he’ll be worth a hail mary, as will Ballage if he is called up from the practice squad again.
J.D. McKissic, WAS (at Detroit)
Until we see proof otherwise, we should just assume that Alex Smith is going to heavily target McKissic. Smith hit him eight times for 58 yards last week in a partial game, and he found him three times for 27 yards in his other action this year. The Lions have also given up five receiving touchdowns to running backs this year, including one to Ameer Abdullah last week and two to Nyheim Hines in Week 8.
Jerick McKinnon, SF (at New Orleans)
Raheem Mostert is out again for Week 10, so expect McKinnon to get the start, most of the running back targets, and any running back red zone opportunity. He scored in garbage time last week against the Packers, and there might be plenty of that against the Saints this week. Running backs have at least five catches against the Saints in each of the last seven games, giving McKinnon some extra PPR punch.
Latavius Murray, NO (vs San Francisco), Jamaal Williams, GB (vs Jacksonville)
Murray and Williams are the plays this week if you think their teams will predictably thump inferior opponents coming to their house. Murray faces the 49ers, who were out of it by halftime at home last week. He has at least 10 touches in all but one game this year to give him a reasonable floor. Williams was activated off of the covid list after missing Week 9 and should get a chance to pile on the yardage against the Jaguars, who have already given up three running back touchdowns in a game twice this year.
Duke Johnson Jr, HOU (at Cleveland)
David Johnson could get out of concussion protocol by Sunday, but with a road game, there could be an expectation of being cleared before the plane goes to Cleveland, which gives Duke Johnson Jr a better chance to start against his old team this week. The Browns had allowed at least a running back touchdown in five straight games before they held strong against Josh Jacobs at the goal line on three straight attempts in Week 8.
Ronald Jones II, Leonard Fournette, TB (at Carolina)
The first time out against the Panthers, this duo scored three times, with Fournette closing out the door on a long touchdown run. The Panthers run defense has improved as of late, but the Bucs could be looking to establish the run again after the lowest number of rushing attempts in league history last week along with a disastrous passing game performance. Fournette is the passing down back, so he’s the better play if you think the Panthers will keep this close and high-scoring. Jones was in at the goal line last week and might be the first choice to get the running game on track.
Wayne Gallman, NYG (vs Philadelphia)
Devonta Freeman was getting closer to a return this week, but left practice on Thursday with a trainer, so unless you hear otherwise, expect Gallman to get the start again this week. He has scored in three straight games, including the first matchup with the Eagles. Gallman also caught five passes against them in Week 7, padding his PPR stats.
Wide Receiver
Auden Tate, CIN (at Pittsburgh)
Tate seized a bigger role in the passing game heading into the bye and could have an even better role for fantasy coming out of the bye. The Bengals want to improve their red zone efficiency. Tate was seen making a spectacular catch in the end zone on most every day of camp this summer, and the Steelers don’t have any cornerback with the length to hang with him (most teams don’t).
Josh Reynolds, LAR (vs Seattle)
Reynolds scored in two of the last three games heading into the bye, and he’ll be needed in Week 10 as the Rams will have to keep up with Russell Wilson. The Seahawks secondary has been very generous to opposing wide receivers, allowing eight touchdowns to wide receivers over the last four weeks. The #3 receiver has at least 70 yards against Seattle in half of their games this year.
Richie James, SF (at New Orleans)
James was a surprise star of Week 9 in garbage time, and he should have ample opportunity to reprise that this week. Deebo Samuel’s hamstring doesn’t appear to be ready for Week 10, and Kendrick Bourne is still on the covid list, so James projects as a starter against the Saints with Marshon Lattimore likely drawing the bigger Brandon Aiyuk. Before the massacre in Tampa last week, the Saints had given up multiple touchdowns to wide receivers in three straight games.
Nelson Agholor, Henry Ruggs, LV (vs Denver)
The Broncos gave up a long score to Olamide Zaccheaus last week that looked way too easy. The Raiders pass offense is primed to make big plays downfield with Henry Ruggs speed and Nelson Agholor’s return to prominence. Either or both could hit on a long touchdown to make a DFS lineup or desperation play at wide receiver.
Rashard Higgins, CLE (vs Houston)
The Texans have allowed nine touchdowns to wide receivers in the last four weeks, including a 73-yard score to DJ Chark from a sixth round rookie making his first NFL start on the first drive of the game. Higgins is the top downfield target for Baker Mayfield and he could replace Odell Beckham as the target on play action chunk play attempts in the passing game as Houston should be overplaying the strong Browns ground game to attempt to cover up their weakness against the run.
K.J. Hamler, DEN (at Las Vegas)
Hamler set career highs in yardage and catches last week and he also had his longest rushing attempt of the season. Jerry Jeudy also broke out, but he’s coming in with a shoulder injury, and Hamler’s speed is easy to incorporate into a simplified offense on touches designed to get him the ball in space. The Raiders had trouble corralling the small and speedy Scott Miller and allowed his biggest game of the year 6-109-1 in Week 7.
Tight End
Dallas Goedert, PHI (at New York Giants)
Goedert should be fully healthy after a knock the rust off game in an earlier than expected return in Week 8. The Giants couldn’t handle Richard Rodgers in the first matchup, allowing 6-85 to the mediocre target, so Goedert should be poised to live up the hopes he created with his 8-101-1 game to open the season against Washington before he promptly got hurt in Week 3.
Mike Gesicki, MIA (vs Los Angeles Chargers)
Gesicki could be as high as the #2 target in the Dolphins pass offense now that Preston Williams is on injured reserve with a foot injury. He’ll have the good luck to face a Chargers defense that has allowed six touchdowns to tight ends this year, including one in four of the last five games as they try to find a combination of linebackers that works.
Jacob Hollister, SEA (at Los Angeles Rams)
Hollister has seen his snaps jump up greatly after the Week 6 bye and continue to increase in every subsequent week, culminating in a game last week when he led the Seahawks tight ends in targets, catches, and snaps in the loss to the Bills. The Rams have allowed seven tight end catches in half of their games this year, and if Jalen Ramsey can cancel out DK Metcalf, that should lead to more Russell Wilson targets for secondary options like Hollister.
Austin Hooper, CLE (vs Houston)
Hooper is back from his appendectomy, which is exciting because we haven’t seen what the target share will look like for him without Odell Beckham in the lineup. Hooper had at least six targets and five catches in three straight games before he unexpectedly missed two games, and he’ll face a Texans defense that allowed 8-113-1 to Anthony Firkser earlier this year. Tyler Eifert had 4-48 and Packers tight ends combined for 4-44-1 in the two weeks since then.
