Player value in dynasty football reminds me of watching ocean waves. They ebb and flow, always in a state of flux. Competitive dynasty players anticipate these movements before they happen and act by picking up, buying, or selling players as the situation demands. Dynasty general managers have previously been at the mercy of regular waiver segments to assist in dynasty pickups, but these fail to account for the long-term view necessary to dynasty success. This weekly column will focus on identifying assets that will help dynasty teams build for the future, as well as players that may plug a hole at a position of need on an otherwise strong squad.
Welcome to Week 3 of Waivers of the Future! Whether you are a contender or a rebuilder, this article will seek to help you put yourself in the best position to have success in your dynasty league by helping you to make preemptive pickups.
What a rough Week 2! Even after playing fantasy football for 25 years, the writer has never seen a week as fraught with injury as this one. With the lack of football conditioning before the season, it was highly likely for something like this to happen. It may continue to happen at an alarming rate. As always, there are not as many replacements to go around as there are injured players, but do not despair! This article will do its best to help you navigate the battlefield, patch up your teams, and soldier on.
RIDE THE WAVE
(These are plug-and-play options who might patch a hole on your team in the short-term.)
QUARTERBACK
Contending 5%, Rebuilding 1%| Ryan Fitzpatrick, MIA- Fitzpatrick is clearly a caretaker quarterback that will be holding down the fort while the Dolphins develop Tua Tagovailoa. He is also one of the most prolific backups in the league, which is why he has been successful for so long. He is capable of multiple touchdown outings, but he can also throw interceptions with his daring and aggressive style of play. The Jaguars in Week 3 is not an especially daunting faceoff. The Seattle Seahawks in Week 4 are also vulnerable to the pass.
Contending 5%, Rebuilding 1%| Dwayne Haskins, WAS- While the writer is skeptical that Haskins will be a starter beyond this year, there is no shame in using Haskins in the same manner that the Washington Football Team is using him-- as a stopgap option. He has passed for a touchdown in each of his two starts and logged over 150 yards. The Browns in Week 3 is a juicy matchup for those who need to play Haskins. The Ravens in Week 4 is a game in which to avoid starting Haskins.
Contending and Rebuilding 1%| Mitchell Trubisky, CHI- Trubisky has been a competent, if unspectacular, fantasy quarterback for the first two weeks of the season. Though he has demonstrated limited processing capacity, Trubisky does have quality weapons such as Allen Robinson and Anthony Miller who can help elevate his play. The Falcons in Week 3 are reeling in terms of pass defense.
Contending and Rebuilding 1% Nick Mullens, SF- Jimmy Garoppolo has suffered the dreaded high ankle sprain and could be out for a while. Mullens has shown he can run the offense completely in previous relief duty. The Giants and Eagles over the next two weeks are also favorable for Mullens and Co.
Contending and Rebuilding 1%| Jeff Driskel, DEN- Drew Lock exited the game with a shoulder injury and his Week 3 status is very much in doubt. Driskel has been a career backup for a few teams but has been able to cobble together some good fantasy performances in relief of the starter. He did so again this past week against the Chiefs. The Buccaneers in Week 3 are nott a shutdown defense against the pass. The Jets in Week 4 is a great matchup if Driskel remains the starter.
Update: Blake Bortles is on the verge of signing with the Broncos. It would be hard to imagine Bortles starting for them off the street, but keep this in mind for future weeks where Bortles may earn the start over Driskel.
Contending and Rebuilding 1%| Tyrod Taylor, LAC- Taylor is on tenuous ground, so pick him up only if you have to and play him only if you are sure he will get the start in Week 3 against the Panthers. Taylor was taken to the hospital with chest pains before Week 2’s contest and Justin Herbert played well in his debut. Head Coach Anthony Lynn tells the media that Taylor will start if he is healthy, but that leaves an out for him to start Herbert if he so chooses. Looking ahead, the Chargers will play the Buccaneers in Week 4, which is not quite as appealing of an option as the Panthers.
Contending and Rebuilding 1%| Taysom Hill, NO- Hill is not the starter, but he earns high leverage work in the red zone as a versatile wrinkle in the offense. He is a safe bet to give you at least some points each week and has one-to-three touchdown upside in any given week. That is preferable to taking a zero at the position. The Week 3 opponent, the Packers, have come out of the gate with a tough pass defense, but that could be more of a function of the soft matchups they have had to date. The Lions are an easier opponent in Week 4.
If you play in a superflex or are desperately in need of a quarterback who might earn starting work in future weeks if the starter struggles…
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Contending and Rebuilding 1-5%| Case Keenum, CLE
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Contending and Rebuilding 1%| Nick Foles, CHI
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Contending and Rebuilding 1%| Kyle Allen, WAS
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Contending and Rebuilding 1%| Marcus Mariota, LVR
All of these guys are generally available on the waiver wire and reside behind starters who have tenuous holds on their jobs. The writer prioritized them this week by how likely they are to replace the starter. Baker Mayfield tops the list currently. He played better against Cincinnati, but he could be replaced if the team loses a few more games. Each has flaws and weaknesses of their own - but again, when desperate for a quarterback to fill a lineup spot, options are limited.
RUNNING BACK
Contending 15-30%, Rebuilding 1%| Mike Davis, CAR- Brown is not just a decent runner, he is also a competent pass catcher. With Christian McCaffrey set to miss a significant amount of time, Davis is the priority add this week. The Chargers are a tough draw in terms of rush defense, but the Cardinals in Week 4 are a little easier to run against. Davis will not be available on the waiver wire past this week, so if you need help, you had better make a claim.
Contending 15-30%, Rebuilding 5-10%| James Robinson, JAX- The writer of this column clearly overestimated Chris Thompson’s experience and underestimated Robinson’s athletic ability giving him a chance to compete for starting work. While Robinson does have some limitations to his game, it looks like Jacksonville has decided to give him a shot. The Dolphins were abused by the run in weeks one and two and should not pose a major problem for the running game when the Jaguars face them in Week 3. The weeks four matchup against the Bengals is also favorable. This is likely your last shot to grab him off the waiver wire on the off chance he is still out there.
Contending 10-20%, Rebuilding 1-5%| Jerick McKinnon, SF- It is unlikely he is out there in your waiver pool because of the promise he has shown in the past. However, if he is there, snap him up. It is uncertain how long Raheem Mostert will be out with a hamstring issue and Telvin Coleman also has hurt his knee. That leaves San Francisco having to rely on McKinnon, especially in pass-catching situations. The Giants and Eagles games coming up for this team are not of concern if you need to use McKinnon. You will not be able to grab him after this week if he is out there.
Contending 10-20%, Rebuilding 1%| Malcolm Brown, LAR- Brown indeed proved to be the most used and most valuable running back for general managers to have rostered in Week 1. In Week 2, he got plenty of carries, but Darell Henderson out-touched him and outproduced him. Cam Akers suffered a rib injury that may reduce the backfield split to two backs for the foreseeable future. Brown himself is dealing with a finger injury that limited him late in the contest, so there is now some risk with this pickup. The Bills in Week 3 are stalwarts and do not make for an advisable start for Brown. The Giants in Week 4 are more accommodating to rushers. Brown is not out there in most dynasty leagues, but if he somehow is still on your wire, grab him.
Contending 10-15%, Rebuilding 1-5%| Myles Gaskin, MIA- Gaskin has been the unexpected leader of Miami’s committee backfield. He is probably not going to be out there after this week due to the rash of injuries in Week 2, even though he is getting only about 10 total touches and targets per game. The Jaguars this week and the Seahawks the next are not scaring anyone away from using Gaskin if desperate.
Contending 10-15%, Rebuilding 1%| Adrian Peterson, DET- As predicted, the backfield is a three-way split, but Peterson is arguably still the best of the three. The Cardinals in Week 3 are not a concern, but the much tougher Saints matchup in Week 4 will be tougher for Peterson and the rushing attack. Due to positional scarcity, this is probably your last chance to snag Peterson if he is still available.
Contending 1-5%, Rebuilding 1%| Dion Lewis, NYG- Make a claim on Lewis only if you are desperate. He has been ineffective between the tackles for years now and New York is already calling free agent running backs to add backfilled help. It is unlikely Lewis will remain the bell cow back for long. The 49ers and Rams over the next two weeks also make this an avoid situation.
WIDE RECEIVER
Contending 5-10%, Rebuilding 1%| Russell Gage, ATL- Gage is not going away as the possession receiver for this team, and the targets that we presumed would go to Hayden Hurst instead have been gobbled up by Gage. In negative game scripts in which the Falcons will be playing from behind, he can be useful if you need help. The Bears and Packers should be favorable for that sort of scenario over the next two weeks. Gage may not be available on most waiver wires after this week due to two good weeks of production.
Contending 5-10%, Rebuilding 1%| Adam Humphries, TEN- Humphries spent much of last year injured, but really came on for Tennessee late in the year. They are a run-first team, but if their pass offense takes a step forward this year, Humphries could be fantasy relevant as a spot starter for dynasty teams. This is especially true in leagues in which first down conversations are rewarded because Humphries excels at moving the chains. Tennessee has the hapless Vikings pass defense for Week 3 and then the much tougher Steelers contest in Week 4.
Contending 1-5%, Rebuilding 1%| Olabisi Johnson, MIN- Justin Jefferson does not appear ready to make the leap to starter just yet, so Olabisi Johnson will occupy that role for now. The Vikings have a low-volume passing offense and Johnson is likely the fourth pass-catching option in that attack. Johnson has proven to be consistent, if not spectacular. The Titans’ secondary will be without Adoree' Jackson in Week 3, so Johnson is not the worst play. He will also be fine in Week 4 against the struggling Houston secondary if Kirk Cousins can get his act together.
TIGHT END
Contending and Rebuilding 15-25%| Mo Alie-Cox, IND- With Trey Burton and Jack Doyle injured, Cox had his coming-out party and led the team in receptions and yards. Will this continue? It is difficult to know. What we do know is how hard it is to find relevant tight ends on the waiver wire, especially those with long-term appeal. Cox is worth picking up with a significant part of your budget to find out if it was just game script or if Indianapolis has awoken to what they have in Cox.
Contending and Rebuilding 15-20%| Logan Thomas, WAS- Washington surprised this offseason by pushing aside incumbent Jeremy Sprinkle for veteran journeyman Logan Thomas. He is getting consistent eight- and nine-target games so far, which is more than we can say for most waiver tight ends. The Browns are another good matchup for Thomas, but the Ravens in Week 4 are where we need to pump the breaks. This is probably your last chance to roster Thomas.
Contending and Rebuilding, 1-5%| Dan Arnold, ARI- Through two games, we have seen Arnold catch only two passes each game. He was targeted four times in the latest game, which is encouraging. In the wasteland that is trying to find a tight end off the waiver wire, Arnold may be your best bet. Detroit and Carolina in the next two weeks are at least good matchups for those who need to plug-and-play Arnold.
Contending and Rebuilding 1-5%| Robert Tonyan Jr, GB- Just when we threw Tonyan back to the waiver wire, he has a three-target game in which he scores. Again, he could just as easily give you a goose egg, but if you are desperate to start someone and possibly get a touchdown, Tonyan is one of the few readily available waiver wire options to consider.
CHANGING TIDES
(Pre-emptive running back options that will have value if the starter goes down and that are not as likely to be owned. The writer sees them more as short-term options. For those that have long-term appeal, please see the other sections of this report.)
The waiver wire for running backs in dynasty leagues is, as usual, razor-thin. Here are some backups that are widely available in most leagues that have a big upside if their starter is injured.
Contending and Rebuilding 1-5%| Darrel Williams and Darwin Thompson, KC- Both backs are likely to get used this year anyway. However, if Clyde Edwards-Helaire were to get dinged, Williams and Thompson would get the lion’s share of the work in an offense in which they would be the lowest priority for defenders that are stretched defending the likes of Patrick Mahomes II II, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Mecole Hardman, and Sammy Watkins. Both are worth holding if you have the roster space to spare.
Contending and Rebuilding 1-5%| Benny Snell, PIT- Snell goes back to being a preemptive pickup after James Conner resumed his usual workload in Week 2. Due to Mike Tomlin’s preference to give carries to one runner, he is one that we need to have on the back end of the roster in case of a James Conner injury.
Contending and Rebuilding 1%| Giovani Bernard, CIN- Joe Mixon is locked up to a shiny new contract, but he has not proven to be the most durable back. That could pay off massively for Giovani Bernard, who will have the benefit of working in an offense that will be reinvigorated by Joe Burrow. Bernard has long been a player with the ability to do more, but the Bengals have been content to use him in an ancillary role. If he were to get that chance and the offense was actually functional, it could be very profitable for general managers who used an open roster spot on this lottery ticket.
Contending and Rebuilding, 1%| Ryan Nall, CHI- David Montgomery was able to play in Week 1 despite a groin injury sustained in preseason practices. In Week 2, he had some sort of stinger that kept him out for a quarter of play. If Montgomery were to re-aggravate either injury or suffer a more substantial problem, Nall could absorb his between-the-tackles workload while Tarik Cohen does his work as a satellite back. Nall is a very no-nonsense, north-to-south runner, but he has a great deal of power to his game.
These are a few free-agent running backs that are waiting for a call from a needy team. These players could provide fill-in value depending on their landing spot. If you have roster space, they may be worth holding on to in anticipation of a future opportunity. They are prioritized by how likely the writer believes it is that they will be given a shot to compete on a new team.
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Contending and Rebuilding 1%| Devonta Freeman
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Contending and Rebuilding 1%| Lamar Miller
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Contending and Rebuilding 1%| Bilal Powell
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Contending and Rebuilding 1%| Rod Smith
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Contending and Rebuilding 1%| Spencer Ware
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Contending and Rebuilding 1%| Kenneth Dixon
THE SPLASH
(Could be available in 30 or fewer roster spot leagues.)
QUARTERBACK
None this week. Please see other quarterback sections of this report for pick-up ideas.
RUNNING BACK
None this week. Please see other running back sections of this report for pick-up ideas.
WIDE RECEIVER
Contending and Rebuilding 20-50%| Marquez Valdes-Scantling, GB- If Devonta Adams misses time with a hamstring ailment, Valdez-Scantling becomes the de-facto second wide receiver in an offense that has been rolling. This is your last chance to snag him if he is still there.
Contending and Rebuilding 15-30%| Keelan Cole, JAX- Cole has flashed on and off throughout his career. In part, that is due to the volatile nature of his quarterback play. He has one now in Gardener Minshew that at least has somewhat stabilized things for this offense and has made Cole viable for both now and later. This is likely your last chance to roster Cole.
Contending and Rebuilding 1-5%| Auden Tate, CIN- A.J. Green is healthy right now, but he cannot seem to stay that way. That could lead to a lot of work for Tate alongside Tyler Boyd. Tate had, by all accounts, one of the more impressive training camps of any Bengal. He has shown flashes of what he can do as a big-bodied red zone threat in the past.
Contending 1%, Rebuilding 1%| Mohamed Sanu, SF- Sanu was cut from the Patriots, but that does not mean he is a bad player. The Patriots had so much redundancy at the position and wanted to save cap room. If he can get up to speed quickly in San Francisco, there is a path for him to be an important yet cheap addition to your fantasy squad.
TIGHT END
Contending and Rebuilding 1%| Ryan Griffin, NYJ- As much time as Chris Herndon has missed due to injury, he might as well be named Chris Hernia. While Griffin also is not the poster child for robust health, he is experienced and basically free on all but the deepest of waiver wires. Sam Darnold developed a great rapport with Griffin last year before Griffin’s season-ending injury in December. If that carries over and Herndon gets dinged again, that will be a recipe for fantasy success.
Contending and Rebuilding 1%| Vance McDonald, PIT- McDonald is oft-injured and the Steelers signed Eric Ebron in the offseason. Those two things are the reason McDonald has been tossed back to the waiver wire in dynasty leagues. We should remember that Eric Ebron also has a checkered past when it comes to injury. There is also another path for McDonald to become relevant again. If the Steelers modernize their offense and run more two-tight end sets, McDonald and Ebron could both be equally as valuable. One can pay a fraction of the price of Ebron to roster McDonald and see if either of these scenarios play out.
THE DEEP
(Could be available in 30-or-more roster spot leagues or leagues with large taxi squads.)
QUARTERBACK
Watch List| Jake Fromm, BUF- Considering Josh Allen’s struggles as a passer, Fromm is not being rostered nearly enough in dynasty leagues. Fromm will have to work his way up the depth chart, but is the most promising of all three quarterbacks the Bills have in terms of decision-making and accuracy.
Watch List| Josh Rosen, TB- Rosen has bounced around quite a bit in his short career, but he is still one of the more talented backup quarterback prospects in the league. He is signed to the Tampa Bay practice squad where he will get to work to rehabilitate his career. That is one of the better moves he could have made. A year or more to sit and learn behind Tom Brady and work with quarterbacks coach Clyde Christiansen is ideal for the young signal-caller.
Watch List| Chad Kelly, FA- Chad Kelly could very well be the most intriguing and high-upside quarterback name on this entire list, but character issues and immaturity make him a volatile asset. If he can learn lessons and increase in practical wisdom, he has the physical skills to develop into a starter. We will see if there is another team out there willing to give him that shot on their practice squad.
RUNNING BACK
Watch List| Justin Jackson, LAC- Jackson has battled injuries during his NFL career, but some very impressive college tape has fantasy general managers holding out hope that Jackson could emerge, even if it is on another team. Jackson is close to returning and we will see if he can earn a small role behind Joshua Kelly and Austin Eckler.
Watch List| CJ Procise, HOU- The Texans signed him to their practice squad and then promoted him in Week 2. David Johnson and Duke Johnson have not always been the picture of health and now that Duke Johnson is banged up, Procise is making the active roster each week. Procise also struggles with injury, but if he were to get an opportunity in this offense, he might be able to make the best of it with his diverse skill set.
WIDE RECEIVER
Contending and Rebuilding Watch List | Jon'vea Johnson, DAL- Some teams are so good at evaluating talent at one position that they have an embarrassment of riches. Dallas is a great example of a team that evaluates receivers well. As a result, the talented Johnson lies buried behind Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup, and Noah Brown. Dallas did not have the room to hold on to Johnson and put him on the practice squad. Other needy teams monitoring the situation might be willing to give Johnson a spot on their 53-man roster eventually. It is a long shot, but this camp standout two years running is worth monitoring to see if he gets a true opportunity elsewhere.
TIGHT END
Contending 1%, Rebuilding 1-5%| Kaden Smith, NYG- Evan Engram is often banged up and Smith has demonstrated surprising competency for New York when called upon to fill in. Could he be the future for the team at the position? It is certainly possible and worth taking a flier on.
LOST AT SEA
(PLAYERS WHO RECENTLY APPEARED IN THIS COLUMN, BUT HAVE HAD THEIR VALUE DECREASE TO THE POINT THEY HOLD NO VALUE IN ALL BUT THE VERY DEEPEST OF DYNASTY LEAGUES.)
Peyton Barber, WAS- After getting 17 touches in Week 1, Barber managed a single carry in Week 2. Antonio Gibson and JD McKissic split the work with Gibson taking the bulk of the work. We cannot trust any of the backs for consistent week-to-week production, meaning Barber should head back to your waiver wire.
Dante Pettis, SF- If you cannot get it done when half the team is out with injury and you have every opportunity to produce, when will you do it?
