Rookie Roundup 9: TD Dynasty Draft Part 1

Photo: USA Today Sports

For the past several years, I have documented a staff dynasty league rookie draft in a two-part series. This year, the series will continue, but I will add a fun wrinkle. Fellow Footballguy Justin Howe is joining me to provide commentary and offer his perspective on our draft. Justin plays with me in a couple of different highly competitive dynasty leagues and has a good sense of what it takes to be successful in the “shark-infested waters.” It should be a lot of fun! Our plan is to cover the first two rounds in this article and cover rounds 3-5 in a future installment.

As usual, our staff league is back at it again a week after the NFL Draft! Hopefully, seeing a real dynasty draft play out where the stakes are real will be insightful to those of you who are getting ready to participate in your own rookie drafts. It may help you to get a feel for what players are going in what zones and where you need to make a move to get your target players.

Here are the scoring and settings highlights from this league:

• 24-man rosters
• Team defenses
• One point per reception for all positions except tight end
• Tight end gets one and a half points per reception
• Rookies or free agents in the pool are draftable
• Five rounds

After winning the championship the year before, I once again made the championship round against Andy Hicks. Sadly, I fell short of repeating and becoming the back-to-back champion. After licking my wounds, I’m hungry and determined to prove that I can get back to the championship round for the third time in four years!

I take a best-player-available approach to my drafts. I figure that I can always trade from a position of strength to address a need later. I’ve also found over the years of playing dynasty that drafting for need is very dangerous and can really blow up in your face. If need and talent intersect, I use it as a tiebreaker for my pick.

Here is a look at my roster and picks pre-draft:

I made a couple of significant trades before the draft:

When evaluating my draft board, I knew that my target players were largely going to be taken in the first five picks of the rookie draft. While there are some late first and early second rounds that I would be happy to have, I knew that some of the players that would fall to the third, fourth, and fifth picks of this draft were players that typically could go at the 1.01 in most rookie draft years. I also knew that my priority target player list would largely be gone by the 2.11 pick, so I did not mind throwing it in to move up and potentially get a foundational player for my team.

I saw a few days before the draft that Andy had moved Smith-Schuster into his trade bait. Despite a down year, I feel Smith-Schuster remains one of the most talented receivers in the game, one that I valued above the running backs in this draft. Long-term, I value CeeDee Lamb more, but I thought he might be gone by 1.04. I checked with the owners holding picks 1-4 and found that none were willing to let me trade up. I decided that I would make a serious run at JuJu Smith-Schuster by also throwing in Jonnu Smith. In this tight end premium league, Smith holds more value than in a typical league. Due to the Titans offense being primarily run-based, I don't think Smith has significant room to improve his fantasy output, despite having the physical talent to do so. Thankfully, Andy instantly accepted my proposal. While sad I won't have a premium share in this exciting rookie class, I’m excited to have a player that I believe will solidify one of my starting wide receiver spots for many years to come. I will need to find another more solid tight end complement to George Kittle, but I did not feel this was the class in which to go searching.

Let's see how the first round played out!

Round 1

Daniel’s Commentary

Much to my chagrin, I feel Andy nailed his first round. Having Dobbins (who I regard as the best long-term running back prospect in the class) fall to him at 1.05 was unexpected and fortunate. He also was able to stick and pick at 1.11 and grab Michael Pittman. Pittman may not be as flashy as some of the other prospects drafted ahead of him, but he’s a good route runner and can accelerate well through his route breaks. He can be Indianapolis’ X receiver or their big slot option. He’s a player I think will gain a great deal of value in the dynasty community over the next year.

Justin getting CeeDee Lamb at 1.04 also stands out to me as being a pick that we’ll look back on and marvel at how much of a value that was. In my mind, Lamb is a future league star that ended up in a great situation. The offense was already good, but it’s going to be downright explosive with Zeke Elliott and all the great receiving options they now have. Lamb really deserves to be the 1.01 in leagues, but running back need among fantasy general managers is contributing to Lamb getting overlooked. I don’t look at having another competent receiver opposite Lamb in Amari Cooper as a bad thing. Especially earlier on, Cooper is going to draw a lot of coverage attention away from Lamb and make throws to him much easier to complete.

Justin’s Commentary

Lamb was the number three guy on my board, and I didn’t anticipate getting him. I get why Dan took Swift, who does boast RB1 upside. But there’s enough of a chance he’ll be in a 50/50 split with another talented youngster for me to prefer Lamb. Lamb has a better ceiling (DeAndre Hopkins) and floor (Keyshawn Johnson, maybe?) even in a crowded three-wide set in Dallas.

There was nothing earth-shattering here. It is nice, though, to get an early peek at who Sigmund likes from this bunch (he chose first). I agree with him that Edwards-Helaire is the most coveted and sensible number one. He obviously couldn’t have drawn up a better landing spot, and there’s 70-catch potential off the bat. That could easily mean 10 touchdowns in this Kansas City offense.

Kudos to Will, who kept Akers right there in the top running back tier - and took him over the second tier of receivers. I may not be as enamored of this wideout class as most are. I like most of them just fine, but I do see an upside drop-off after the first two or three. The prospect of landing a near-future workhorse RB1 or RB2 - here at just 21 or 22 years old, usually - is more valuable to me than a slot specialist like Jefferson or a boom/bust prototype like Mims.

Again, I like both just fine. All of these receivers feel well-suited to the first round. However, I like Akers, a 21-year-old, Devin Singletary-type dual-threat, a bit more. Akers doesn’t have much competition to lead the Rams backfield, a role that gave Todd Gurley 18 looks (carries + targets) a game last year. Most importantly, Gurley has hit the end zone 19, 21, and 14 times over the last three years.

Round 2

Daniel’s Commentary

I tried to trade into the late first round a few times, but I was more aggressively seeking to trade into a mid-second round pick so that I could take Tua Tagovailoa. No one was budging on giving up their picks at this point. I hoped as the board thinned in the second round that someone who didn't have a clear need at quarterback would let me get in, but none of the teams with whom I negotiated came off their pick. At pick 2.09, James put the dagger through my heart by selecting Tagovailoa. For the record, I’m still mad at you, James.

I think Danny has a decent chance of ending up with a starter in about a year's time with AJ Dillon. The Packers don't seem interested in extending Aaron Jones and Dillon has the skillset to become very much like what Derrick Henry is for the Titans -- a back that may come off the field on third down, but who is very dominant late in the year when it matters for fantasy general managers and football teams alike trying to make the playoffs.

Clayton was the first to break the seal on taking a player from the pool who was not a rookie and I think it was an extremely smart selection. Not only will Clayton find out quickly if Stidham is going to be worth the pick, but he potentially grabbed a quarterback that could be the next long-term starter with a coach who always seems to keep his team competitive.

Andy once again harvested the value out of his late pick with his selection of Chase Claypool. The bigger-bodied receiver has that my-ball-mentality and complex route running ability for a man of his size. I see him winning the X receiver job so that Juju Smith-Schuster can play in the slot. It is another selection that is likely to have a great deal more value a year from now.

Justin’s Commentary

Dillon was my prize here and Vaughn was my backup, yet both went quickly in the round. So I “settled” for Moss, a hard-nosed, three-down prospect. Guys with his profile tend to go on the 1/2 turn. Moss’ landing spot wasn't great, though it’s worth noting the Bills never fully turned the reins over to Singletary as a rookie. Frank Gore took on 179 looks last year, while Josh Allen stole most of his touchdowns. Moss offers more upside and more pass-game chops than Gore, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him take on 150+ rookie touches as a baseline. The potential if Singletary were to go down, of course, is huge. Moss is a favorite redraft target of mine, too, as an RB4 with an RB5/6 price tag.

This was perhaps a bit early for these quarterbacks, at least for my taste. I’m not a big Burrow fan, and I don't see him as a demonstrably better prospect than the guys who will be available up top next year. The other two top guys, Tagovailoa and Herbert, have slipped into Round 3 in a lot of the mocks I’ve seen. So, had I been drafting mid-round, I probably would’ve targeted big flex upside over them. Claypool comes to mind - I thought hard about snapping him up in lieu of Moss.

Part 2 covering rounds 3-5 is coming soon!

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