DraftKings GPP Domination: Week 7

Photo: USA Today Sports

All roster percentages cited below are based on Devin Knotts’ projections which are refined and updated throughout the week. Click here or use our Lineup Optimizer to make sure you are using the latest projections before setting your lineups.

Know Your Enemies

To place near the top of a large-field GPP, your roster has to stand out from the crowd in some way. Studying a list of projected roster percentages is a helpful first step, but without the context of how those players fit together under the salary cap, you’re left guessing what type of lineups you’ll be up against most frequently.

To gain some insight into how the majority of entrants will allocate their cap space, with the goal of building your lineups differently, let’s think about how the crowd will attack each position:

Quarterback

Spending at the quarterback position should range from moderate to heavy in the majority of lineups. Russell Wilson ($8,000) and Kyler Murray ($7,100) will attract the crowd as they face off in this week’s marquee game (55-point over/under) for DFS purposes. The high Vegas totals in Detroit at Atlanta (56-½) and Green Bay at Houston (56 points) make it a safe assumption most entrants will spend at least $6.5K at quarterback given the respective salaries of Matthew Stafford ($6,500), Matt Ryan ($6,700), Aaron Rodgers ($7,000), and Deshaun Watson ($6,800). Justin Herbert ($6,400) will likely draw some attention thanks to his matchup against Jacksonville’s dismal defense, but those looking to save at quarterback are more likely to turn to Joe Burrow ($5,500), who appears mispriced relative to his season-to-date production.

Pivot Points: The entire swath of quarterbacks from $5,600 to $6,300 will get glossed over by the masses. Cam Newton ($6,300) should bounce back from an underwhelming Week 6 performance, with New England unlikely to drop consecutive home games. Gardner Minshew ($5,900) won’t get many looks despite scoring between 20 and 28 DraftKings points in five-out-of-six games this season. And any game involving the Titans has the potential to shoot out, making Ryan Tannehill ($6,200) and Ben Roethlisberger ($6,600) contrarian quarterbacks to build stacks around.

Running Back

The value in the $5K range at running back is more enticing than wide receiver, which makes it likely most entrants will pair an inexpensive option with Alvin Kamara ($7,900), Aaron Jones ($7,200), or Kareem Hunt ($6,800). Derrick Henry ($7,500) will have his fans in the top tier as well, though the matchup against Pittsburgh’s rush defense will scare many away. The most likely RB2 options in stock builds are cheap matchup plays -- Giovani Bernard ($4,500), David Johnson ($5,300), Justin Jackson ($4,900), and possibly even Antonio Gibson ($5,000). Kenyan Drake ($4,800) will also stand out as underpriced following his 31-point explosion on Monday Night Football.

Pivot Points: If you believe the Football Team will give Dallas less trouble than Arizona did on Monday, Ezekiel Elliott ($7,800) is an intriguing price pivot in the top tier. The national TV audience just watched him fumble multiple times and lose some work to Tony Pollard. The salary range from $6K to $6.7K looks like the area to attack from a roster percentage standpoint. Todd Gurley ($6,000), Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($6,100), Chris Carson ($6,400), Mike Davis ($6,600), and James Conner ($6,700) should all provide leverage.

Wide Receiver

The expensive chalk at quarterback will boost the roster percentages of DeAndre Hopkins ($8,200), DK Metcalf ($7,300), Davante Adams ($7,900), and Julio Jones ($7,100). If we assume the majority of our opponents will pay down at RB2, we’ll be up against many lineups that include two of these high-priced studs. Terry McLaurin ($5,800) jumps out as an obvious value in the mid-salary range and is cheap enough to fit the common construction as a WR3 or flex. Punt options at wide receiver are few and far between, but Diontae Johnson ($4,200) and Gabriel Davis ($3,700) might become popular once more people start building lineups this weekend.

Pivot Points: From a general tournament strategy standpoint, rostering two chalky wide receivers in the same lineup is rarely the best way to attack a slate due to the likelihood one will underperform. Spread out more of your wide receiver exposure across the middle price tier and spend heavy on running backs instead. Tyler Boyd ($5,400), D.J. Chark ($5,500), D.J. Moore ($5,600), and Robby Anderson ($6,000) possess the requisite upside and should be rostered at low-to-moderate rates. Stefon Diggs ($7,000) and Keenan Allen ($6,200) will be more popular and more expensive, but going heavy on either should gain you some leverage on the other consensus top plays at the position.

Tight End

With George Kittle ($6,500) and the 49ers traveling to New England, where Bill Belichick has made a consistent habit of scheming to stop the opposition’s best player, we can safely expect the crowd to gravitate towards Travis Kelce ($6,300). Kelce is affordable enough to fit the common roster construction by paying down a bit at WR2. Outside of Kittle and Kelce, the tight end position looks about as gross as it did on last week’s main slate. T.J. Hockenson ($5,000) is in a great matchup but priced close to his ceiling, leaving Hunter Henry ($4,500) as as the most attractive mid-priced matchup play.

Pivot Points: Kittle is priced equivalent to the WR12, which leaves him plenty of room to pay off his salary at a moderate roster percentage. He’s your price pivot off the Kelce chalk. You’ll want to stay away from guys like Henry and Hooper if their projected roster percentages are on the high side. The tight end position has the most extreme variance of the skill positions and the likelihood they help you win a tournament isn’t significantly greater than guys like Hayden Hurst ($4,400) and Jared Cook ($4,300), who will be ignored by our opponents.

Can You Trust The Chalk?

The term chalk in sports betting simply means the heavily-favored side of a bet. In DFS tournaments, these are the most popular players on the slate. Identifying and taking a stance on the chalk is a crucial part of tournament strategy. If you fade a chalky player, and he fails to deliver on his scoring projection, your lineup will be positioned to pass a large chunk of the field in the standings. But when a popular player lives up to expectations and you choose not to roster him, your lineups can quickly get buried in the standings.

Some suggestions on how to treat this week’s most popular players:

Kareem Hunt (@CIN, $6,800, 26% rostered)
Hunt is the least expensive of this week’s top-3 running backs and may end up the chalkiest as a result. While he disappointed last week in a tough matchup against Pittsburgh’s defense (in a game script that went sideways from the opening whistle), Hunt is set up for redemption in Week 7. Since Nick Chubb has been out of the lineup, Hunt has operated as a near-workhorse, handling 67% of Cleveland’s running back touches, including 83% of the team’s receptions out of the backfield. It’s a workload that should play well against the Bengals, whose defensive line is ravaged by injury. Hunt is good chalk. Don’t drop your exposure below the field.

DK Metcalf (@ARI, $7,200, 14% rostered)
Metcalf currently leads all wide receivers in PPR fantasy points per game. The crowd won’t be able to resist him, despite his season-high price tag, in a probable shootout with Arizona. Patrick Peterson’s presence at cornerback for the Cardinals might be a turnoff to some, but his days as a shutdown corner appear over. Per Pro Football Focus, Peterson has allowed 128 yards after the catch in 2020, which ties him for 11th-most in the league. Arizona’s other perimeter corner, Dre Kirkpatrick, has been even worse. The duo will have their hands full keeping Metcalf from landing at least one of his trademark splash plays, but the correct play in tournaments is a fade. As consistently dominant as Metcalf has been this year, he’s fallen short of producing a 4x multiple of his current salary in every game and only came close once. Play him less than the field.

Travis Kelce (@DEN, $6,300, 15% rostered)
Are you more excited to play Kelce at $6,300 or the WR12 -- CeeDee Lamb -- at $6,500? Kelce’s salary is a gift this week and most entrants will be eager to accept it. As usual, Kansas City (-9.5) is a heavy favorite with an implied team total north of 28 points. It’s a game environment ripe for tight end fantasy scoring, especially when you consider the Broncos struggles to defend tight ends in recent seasons, particularly Kelce. Dating back to 2016, Kelce has either eclipsed 100 yards, scored a touchdown, or both in six-out-of-seven games vs. Denver. The only thing not to like about Kelce is that it’s rarely wise to follow the crowd at the most volatile skill position. Play him less than the field and get creative elsewhere in the lineups you use him in.

Leverage Plays

You won’t necessarily be sneaking the players in this section past your opponents. But their percent rostered projection is lower than the probability they can appear in a first-place lineup. If you are multi-entering tournaments, raise your exposure higher than their projected roster percentage.

Chris Carson (@ARI, $6,400, 14% rostered)
Our opponents are zeroed in on Seattle’s passing game and looking past Carson, who not only is a critical part of said passing game but also has a touchdown expectation on par with any non-Russell Wilson Seahawks player. Carson has scored at least 19.8 DraftKings points in four out of five games this season and finished close enough to a 4x multiple of his current salary in two out of five despite battling a knee sprain since Week 3. Fresh off a much-needed bye, Carson can safely be projected for 18-20 high-quality touches against a Cardinals defense playing on short rest. This game can easily turn into a blowout in Seattle’s favor, which raises the floor and ceiling for Carson while creating potential leverage on chalky Wilson-Metcalf stacks.

D.J. Moore (@NO, $5,600, 8% rostered)
Moore’s salary matches his season-low in a game the Panthers should be forced to throw quite a bit. The implied game script (Saints -7) is worth noting since both of Moore’s double-digit target games this season have come in convincing Carolina losses (13 targets in a 31-17 loss to Tampa Bay in Week 2 and 11 targets in last week’s 23-16 loss to the Bears). If Vegas has this game pegged correctly, we could see a reception-fueled PPR ceiling game from Moore. His usually scary matchup on the outside against New Orleans cornerback Marshon Lattimore is not what it seems. Per Pro Football Focus, opposing quarterbacks have a perfect 158.3 passer rating when throwing into Lattimore’s coverage this season. Assuming Lattimore’s poor play continues, Moore, who only has seven touchdowns on 265 career targets, could add a score to his high reception total to finish near the top of the wide receiver leader board.

Josh Allen (@NYJ, $7,700, 4% rostered)
Following ugly back-to-back losses against Tennessee and Kansas City, it already feels like years ago when Allen was a trendy pick for MVP. But we should be willing to write off two subpar games against a pair of Super Bowl contenders after Allen scored between 25 and 36 DraftKings points in each of his first four games against lesser competition. Thankfully, the Bills draw the winless Jets this week, who barely qualify as competition. Allen lit up New York in Week 1 for 317 passing yards, two touchdowns, 57 rushing yards, and another touchdown on the ground. We have every reason to expect a similar result against a defense with no prayer of defending Stefon Diggs downfield. Recency bias and the glut of crowd-favorite quarterbacks in the top price tier will take the air out of Allen’s roster percentage, making it a great week to run plenty of Allen-Diggs stacks.

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