SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE
Wow... one of the crazier lineup locks we've had in a long time.
Ezekiel Elliott is out, this makes Tony Pollard at $4,700 a must play. I still love J.K. Dobbins this week, but to save the additional $1,200 is too good to pass up.
Mike Gesicki, Devante Parker, Jakeem Grant are all out. This elevates the Patriots defense into the top spot and increases the outlook of Lynn Bowden Jras the Dolphins essentially have no one to throw to outside of Bowden and Mack Hollins.
This is going to open enough savings that I'm playing Derrick Henry in cash.
- QB Jalen Hurts, PHI, $6,900
- RB Tony Pollard, DAL, $4,700
- RB Derrick Henry, TEN, $10,200
- WR Brandon Aiyuk, SF, $6,900
- WR Lynn Bowden, MIA, $5000
- WR Emmanuel Sanders, NO, $5,500
- TE Travis Kelce, KC, $8,500
- Flex RB Alvin Kamara, NO, $7,800
- TD New England Patriots, $4,100
Below is a secondary lineup that could be great for a cash+ or GPP lineup. Essentially it is a fade of Derrick Henry.
- QB Lamar Jackson, BAL, $8,200
- RB Tony Pollard, DAL, $4,700
- RB J.K. Dobbins, BAL, $5,900
- WR Brandon Aiyuk, SF, $6,900
- WR Calvin Ridley, ATL, $8,400
- WR Emmanuel Sanders, NO, $5,500
- TE Travis Kelce, KC, $8,500
- Flex RB Alvin Kamara, NO, $7,800
- TD New England Patriots, $4,100
SITUATIONS THAT STAND OUT TO THIS WEEK ON THE MAIN SLATE.
- Tennessee (vs Detroit) – 31.25 points
- LA Rams (vs NY Jets) – 30.5 points
- Baltimore (vs Jacksonville) – 30.25 points
- Indianapolis (vs Houston) – 29.25 points
- Arizona (vs Philadelphia) – 28 points
RECAP OF LAST WEEK
Crazy week last week. Primary cash lineup when it was all said and done ended up right on the cash line for a lot of contests for me, while just below in some lineups ending up about break even. If Mahomes had only thrown two interceptions instead of three, would have won nearly all of my contests for the week.
What went right?
- Going back to Derrick Henry paid off immensely as the guy just continues to have big games in December. Rushing for 215 yards and two touchdowns, he was a critical player to cash last week.
- Dallas defense was huge last week as they scored a defensive touchdown and only allowed 7 points last week. They were popular, but were a much-needed help to the lineup.
- Davante Adams continues to just produce 100 yard games and has now scored a touchdown in each of his last eight games.
What went wrong?
- Variance, not playing David Montgomery was the right call, as while he had over 100 yards and a touchdown, he had just 11 carries last week. He also did something that he has never done in his professional or college career which is a 40+ yard touchdown. Prior to this game he had 5 runs longer than 35 and he was caught on all of them.
- Corey Davis over Robby Anderson. In hindsight this one was just a bad process, Corey Davis is still the #3 option in that offense behind Derrick Henry and A.J. Brown and it was point chasing based off of recent performance. Meanwhile with no D.J. Moore last week, it should have been an obvious play to go with Anderson who I liked, but not as much as Davis.
- While Cole Kmet was the best of the value players and got to where we needed him to get to, it is still tough to overcome the performances that Travis Kelce continues to put up. Kelce has topped 100 yards in 5 of his last 6 games and has 8 or more receptions in all 6 of those contests. He leads all players in receiving yards and is likely not priced anywhere close to where he should be.
CASH GAME STRATEGY WEEK 15- Running Back is Key
The Lock:
With Drew Brees back, things should start to normalize in New Orleans. Kamara had his upside somewhat limited with Taysom Hill at quarterback due to the risk of the goal line work being taken from Hill who ran for four touchdowns in his four games as a starter. Kamara saw just 10 total receptions in his four games with Taysom Hill and will be elevated significantly this week with Brees as he averaged 7.4 per game.
The Contenders:
Top End-
There’s not much of an argument here other than his price is extremely expensive. Essentially, Henry is going to need 120 yards and two touchdowns or 180 yards and a touchdown to pay off his salary which is a lot to ask for this week. The matchup is a great one as Detroit has allowed the most FanDuel points to the running back position on the season. Henry has topped 100 yards in four of his last five contests and has two multi-touchdown games in there as well. There is no doubt he’s a top play this week if you can afford him.
The one advantage of starting Dalvin Cook is volume and he is a discount compared to Henry. The problem with Cook is that you don’t get the full value of Cook due to FanDuel being a half-point PPR contest. Cook has had 30+ touches in four of his last seven games including 34 touches against the Bears earlier this season. While Cook was largely held in check against the Bears in their first meeting, this should not be any indication that the Bears will shut him down like they previously did as evidenced by Cook’s meetings with the Packers in which he had just 48 yards in Week 1, and then in their second meeting had 226 yards and 4 touchdowns.
Mid-Range-
After some mid-season struggles and a largely disappointing rookie season, Jonathan Taylor is starting to be the breakout player that we had all thought he would be earlier this season. Over his last three games, Taylor has averaged 21.3 touches per game and 138 yards per game. Taylor is in a fantastic matchup facing Houston who have really struggled against even the most average backs when it comes to running backs. They have allowed 100+ yards to David Montgomery, Jonathan Taylor, Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, Derrick Henry, Dalvin Cook, James Conner, Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Kerryon Johnson and James Robinson just missed the mark with 98 and 99 yards respectively. This is a team that never was able to replace D.J. Reader up the middle at nose tackle and has struggled all season.
Another rookie running back makes the list and there is a lot to be excited about with Cam Akers. He has fully developed into the lead running back in Los Angeles averaging 25 carries per game over the last two contests. This week, the Rams are facing the hapless Jets who if you look at their overall numbers don’t appear to be a soft defense, but the competition that they have faced at the running back position is incredibly thin. Somehow, the Jets have not faced a running back in the top 12 in rushing on the season as the best running back that they have faced was Melvin Gordon back in Week 4 who ran for 107 and 2 touchdowns. While Cam Akers is another unproven running back that the Jets will face, he likely will be only the second running back this season to top 20 carries against the Jets and is a great value at just $6,600
Low End-
With Ronald Jones II expected to miss this game, it seems like at $5,500 Leonard Fournette will be a must play for a lot of people. However, there is some significant risks with the Tampa Bay running back that should be called out. First, the matchup is one of the worst possible matchups for Fournette and the Buccaneers running game. On the season, Atlanta is allowing just 3.7 yards-per-carry and have only allowed five rushing touchdowns on the season. This is a team that while strong at stopping the run, is even stronger due to their inability to stop the pass as they are the worst pass defense in football when it comes to fantasy points allowed. The other issue for Fournette is how much the team believes in him as a running back. Fournette was a health scratch last week after two consecutive games where he had 50%+ of the snaps, but saw just 10 carries in those two games. The reality here is Fournette has looked awful running the ball in his last three games as he has 18 carries for 46 yards. The floor is a big worry for the cheap running back this week.
Dobbins is the third rookie on this list and the biggest issue with him is not the talent as he is averaging 5.3 yards-per-carry, but the biggest problem is the lack of consistent touches. Dobbins has scored a touchdown in three consecutive games, but is averaging just 13 carries per game as Gus Edwards continues to take volume alongside Lamar Jackson. The upside with Dobbins is limited, essentially hoping he finds the end zone which he has about a 40% chance of scoring based on Footballguys projections.
The Recommendation:
As much as I would love to get Derrick Henry or Dalvin Cook into my lineup, there are just too many great plays this week who have tremendous upside. It is extremely difficult to fit Travis Kelce into your lineup who we will talk about later in this article if you have both Derrick Henry and Alvin Kamara in your lineup. It is risky, but at $10,200 the price is just a little bit too high. Kamara, and Akins seem to be the lock, and as the third guy, I’m going to take a chance on J.K. Dobbins.
The reasoning here is that Jonathan Taylor is just a little too expensive this week, and Dobbins going up against a Jacksonville defense that just has been horrendous at stopping the run should provide the Ravens plenty of opportunity for them to dial back Lamar Jackson a little bit and lean on the rushing attack.
Final Decision: Alvin Kamara, Cam Akers, J.K. Dobbins
INJURY UNLOCKS OPPORTUNITY?
Julio Jones will miss this game with a hamstring injury. This will once again open up a lot of value for Calvin Ridley. He is expensive at $8,400, but in games that Julio has missed, Ridley is averaging 7 receptions for 105 yards this season. Not sure he is a cash game play just because of the price, but he is an excellent GPP play.
Michael Thomas will miss this game with an ankle injury. The Saints also get Drew Brees back from his rib injuries. Both Alvin Kamara and Emmanuel Sanders are underpriced and are excellent plays this week in a high scoring game against Kansas City.
Ronald Jones II seems unlikely to play as he was placed on the Covid-19 list. This will make Leonard Fournette the starter and primary ball carrier. However, this could be a fools trap
KEY CASH CORE
Travis Kelce, $8,500
The first name on the list this week has to be Travis Kelce. Kelce is leading the NFL in receiving yards and is the primary receiver in Kansas City. We touched on it earlier, but Kelce has 100 yards in 5 of his last 6 games and has 8 or more receptions in all of his last 6 games. The reasoning here is simply the replacement value. If you look at Kelce compared to some of the lower end tight ends in the $5k range, there could be a 10+ point difference between the two which is significantly more than any other position for just $2,600-$3k.
T.Y. Hilton, $6,800
It seems as if most people wrote T.Y. Hilton off after his early season struggles to adjust to Philip Rivers and the new Colts offense. However, Hilton is finally finding his role as of late as he has topped 80 yards in each of his last three games and has scored four touchdowns in those three contests. It seemed early on in the season the Colts were set on trying to get Michael Pittman to emerge as the most consistent threat in the passing game and that has not materialized, so they went back to their veteran receiver in Hilton. The matchup could not be easier for Hilton as he is expected to face Vernon Hargreaves who continues to be one of the worst cornerbacks in the NFL. Hilton has 8 career 100+ yard games against Houston, and it could be expected that he has the opportunity to do this once again.
Rams, $5,000
This might be a first for this article even dating back to when it was in the blog format. Paying up for a defense has never been a strategy that I have implemented, however this week with the lack of sub-4k options, and with a tremendous matchup staring in the face, it is time to go up to the Rams at $5k. The Rams are third in the NFL in sacks and interceptions, and are facing a Jets team that is last in yards, last in points per game.
LINEUPS
SAMPLE ROSTER 1 ($60K) – PRIMARY CASH- (DD PROJECTED POINTS = 136.5)
- QB Jalen Hurts, PHI, $6,900
- RB Cam Akers, LAR, $6,700
- RB J.K. Dobbins, BAL, $5,900
- WR Brandon Aiyuk, SF, $6,900
- WR T.Y. Hilton, IND, $6,800
- WR Emmanuel Sanders, NO, $5,500
- TE Travis Kelce, KC, $8,500
- Flex RB Alvin Kamara, NO, $7,800
- TD Los Angeles Rams, $5,000
SAMPLE ROSTER 2 ($60K) – Secondary Cash (DD PROJECTED POINTS = 128.2)
- QB Jalen Hurts, PHI, $6,900
- RB Cam Akers, LAR, $6,700
- RB Derrick Henry, TEN, $10,200
- WR Brandin Cooks, HOU, $6,600
- WR T.Y. Hilton, IND, $6,800
- WR Emmanuel Sanders, NO, $5,500
- TE Dallas Goedert, PHI, $5,900
- Flex RB Alvin Kamara, NO, $7,800
- TD Dallas Cowboys, $3,600
SAMPLE ROSTER 3 ($60K) –FBG OPTIMAL LINEUP GPP Lineup (DD PROJECTED POINTS = 140.9)
- QB Lamar Jackson, BAL, $8,200
- RB Leonard Fournette, TB, $5,500
- RB J.K. Dobbins, BAL, $5,900
- WR Emmanuel Sanders, NO, $5,500
- WR Brandin Cooks, HOU, $6,600
- WR Brandon Aiyuk, SF, $6,900
- TE Travis Kelce, KC, $8,500
- Flex RB Alvin Kamara, NO, $7,800
- TD Los Angeles Rams, $5,000
NEW FEATURE: PLAYER POOL
Projected points are static as of Saturday morning and will not be updated throughout the weekend. Green means great cash game play, yellow means should be in consideration in cash game lineups.
