SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE
A couple of key things have occurred in the last 24 hours that are worth discussing.
Keenan Allen, appears to be questionable with an illness. He has tested negative for Covid twice and is eligible to play, but is dealing with a sore throat, that is concerning. For cash games, the problem is that the drop off if he is scratched with the game being a 4PM EST game is too great as you would need to drop down to Amari Cooper, JuJu Smith-Schuster or Chase Claypool which is not something that I'm willing to do.
Ezekiel Elliott was looking doubtful, but now looking like he will be active this week which in this matchup against Pittsburgh is a clear stay-away in cash even if Elliott were ruled out and Tony Pollard was put into the lead role.
Finally, after looking into it, I'm making the change from Justin Jackson to David Montgomery. Trying to read into the situation of the Chargers publicly calling out Joshua Kelley earlier this week leads me to believe that they are trying to inspire him and he will once again have a role in this offense. David Montgomery is the same price, and will be on the field for 80% of the plays this week in a favorable matchup against Tennessee.
- QB Derek Carr, LV, $7,000
- RB Dalvin Cook, MIN, $9,300
- RB David Montgomery, CHI, $5,900
- WR Julio Jones, ATL, $8,200
- WR Stefon Diggs, BUF, $7,600
- WR Sterling Shepard, NYG, $5,500
- TE Darren Waller, LV, $6,400
- Flex RB Chase Edmonds, ARI, $6,700
- TD Atlanta Falcons, $3,300
SITUATIONS THAT STAND OUT TO THIS WEEK ON THE MAIN SLATE.
- Kansas City (vs CAR) – 31.5 points
- Seattle (at BUF) – 29 points
- Houston (at JAX) – 28.5 points
- Minnesota (vs DET) – 28 points
- Pittsburgh (at DAL) – 28 points
CASH GAME STRATEGY WEEK 9
Differentiating between Sites
An important topic this week is the ability to differentiate between sites especially when you are listening to podcasts, watching videos, or just digesting content. For example, you may hear a lot of Jake Luton, Chase Daniel, D’Andre Swift, some very low end Lions receivers, and even guys like James Robinson and David Johnson. These are players that are going to be primarily DraftKings players. The key here is understanding that there are two things that are causing these players to be recommended.
The first item is that in general DraftKings pricing is often tighter. The reality is that they really penalize you for going up to some of the top end players causing the lower players to be in consideration. Often times for FanDuel we can fit two or even three elite players in our lineups comfortably where that just isn’t the case on DraftKings.
The second reason is just that there is a difference in the scoring setup. With DraftKings having a full PPR setup, having a very cheap player who can catch 5 passes for 30 yards and have a chance at a touchdown has some value, whereas on FanDuel, we need more than that or a higher chance to score.
Utilizing Late Swap
Late swap can be one of the best advantages that experienced players can have over new players. Understanding where you are at in your contest as the 4PM games get close to starting is a critical way to potentially turn a losing week into a winning week.
From a strategic standpoint the way to think about this is that you either want to block your opponent if you feel confident that you will win, or if you are behind and some of your early players underperformed, you may want to realize that you are likely blocked from winning. How do we define blocked? The best way to determine is to look through your opponents rosters and try to reverse-engineer what roster that they may have. This can become difficult if they have a large number of players still remaining, but if they only have a few, it is fairly easy to reverse-engineer with a somewhat high level of confidence who your opponent is rostering. I typically only use this for unblocking unless it is a head to head contest as trying to block a 50/50 or double-up can backfire in building a sub-optimal lineup.
Once you’ve established a general idea what your opponents or opponent are rostering, the next key thing is to determine what your next move might be. Take this week, some of the late players who may be highly rostered are Chase Edmonds and Justin Jackson. If you are behind and your opponent likely has one or both of those players, you will need to make a determination whether it makes sense to pivot to a wide receiver or a cheaper low end running back.
ALWAYS PUT YOUR PLAYER WITH THE LATEST START TIME IN YOUR FLEX!!! This can not be understated enough how important this is for the strategy to work.
INJURY UNLOCKS OPPORTUNITY?
The Seahawks will be without both Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde this week. Deejay Dallas will once again get a bulk of the work as he saw 79% of the snaps last week. This one is a difficult one, as he had 18 carries, but was unable to do much with them as he only had 41 yards against the 49ers. The good news however, is he had five receptions and scored two touchdowns, he is a solid cash game play as the matchup is much better this week against Buffalo who have allowed over 100 yards to Damien Harris, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and Darrell Henderson.
There are some Covid issues this week, Matthew Stafford is questionable with having close contact with someone who tested positive for Covid. It looks like he is going to be able to play this week, but if for whatever reason he doesn’t go, Chase Daniel becomes a tremendous play.
Jonathan Taylor is dealing with an ankle injury and while it is expected that he will play, it is expected that Jordan Wilkins and Nyheim Hines will see additional work this week.
Andy Dalton will miss this week and the Cowboys are not playing Ben Dinucci once again. It looks like Cooper Rush will start, but it could be Garrett Gilbert as well. This is a situation to completely avoid.
Kenyan Drake will miss this game with an ankle injury. Chase Edmonds will get the start and is a tremendous play this week.
Matt Breida will miss this game with a hamstring injury. Myles Gaskin was also put on IR this week with a knee injury. This leaves the Dolphins incredibly thin at the running back position with just Jordan Howard and Patrick Laird as their starting running backs. This is a situation likely to avoid this week.
Calvin Ridley is questionable with a foot injury and he is probably more doubtful than questionable as he did not practice all week. If he is out, this would have significant changes to the article
WEATHER CONCERN
After one of the worst weeks of the year for weather, there does not appear to be any major issues this week.
KEY CASH CORE
Keenan Allen- $7,500
At this point, Keenan Allen is as safe as they come for fantasy. The wide receiver since Week 2, when Justin Herbert took over as the starting quarterback, has had 10 or more targets in all but one of his games. Allen will have a significant size advantage out of the slot this week facing off against Lamarcus Joyner who is just 5’8 184 pounds while Allen is 6’2 215 pounds which should bode well for the Chargers. The one concern is the lack of touchdowns, as Allen has just three touchdowns on the season, but has seen 8 Red Zone targets which while still not ideal is only two less than guys like Julio Jones, Tyler Lockett, Adam Thielen and Mark Andrews.
Julio Jones- $8,200
Since returning back from injury, Julio Jones has quietly looked like the star receiver in his prime as he has 19 targets and 234 yards in his two games back. Even better for Jones is that it is looking like Calvin Ridley will miss, which should force the targets to come Jones’ way this week. Jones should get a massive benefit as A.J. Bouye will miss this game leaving rookie Michael Ojemudia and 5’9 Bryce Callahan who is a slot corner that is dealing with an ankle injury to cover Jones. Expect a big day from Julio this week.
Chase Edmonds- $6,700
With no Kenyan Drake this week, Chase Edmonds gets elevated up to the top running back. The Dolphins have struggled to stop the run as they are allowing a 4.9 yards per carry and have struggled to stop receiving running backs as they are allowing 6 receptions per game including an 11-reception game to the Jaguars. Edmonds has looked electric in his time as a change of pace back, so there will be a lot of excitement as he heads into this game and will be one of the highest rostered running back this week.
LINEUPS
SAMPLE ROSTER 1 ($60K) – PRIMARY CASH- (DD PROJECTED POINTS = 132.7)
- QB Derek Carr, LV, $7,000
- RB Dalvin Cook, MIN, $9,300
- RB Justin Jackson, LAC, $5,900
- WR Julio Jones, ATL, $8,200
- WR Keenan Allen, LAC, $7,500
- WR Sterling Shepard, NYG, $5,500
- TE Darren Waller, LV, $6,400
- Flex RB Chase Edmonds, ARI, $6,700
- TD Atlanta Falcons, $3,300
SAMPLE ROSTER 2 ($60K) – Secondary Cash (DD PROJECTED POINTS = 132.5)
- QB Deshaun Watson, HOU $8,300
- RB Dalvin Cook, MIN, $9,300
- RB Deejay Dallas, SEA, $5,100
- WR Julio Jones, ATL, $8,200
- WR Keenan Allen, LAC, $7,500
- WR Sterling Shepard, NYG, $5,500
- TE Hunter Henry, LAC, $5,600
- Flex RB Chase Edmonds, ARI, $6,700
- TD Atlanta Falcons, $3,300
SAMPLE ROSTER 3 ($60K) –Buffalo/Seattle Stack (DD PROJECTED POINTS = 136.8)
- QB Josh Allen, BUF, $8,200
- RB Dalvin Cook, MIN, $9,300
- RB David Montgomery, CHI, $5,900
- WR Tyler Lockett, SEA, $7,400
- WR Stefon Diggs, BUF, $7,600
- WR Sterling Shepard, NYG, $5,500
- TE Darren Waller, LV, $6,400
- Flex RB Justin Jackson, LAC, $5,900
- TD Tennessee Titans, $3,800
NEW FEATURE: PLAYER POOL
Projected points are static as of Saturday morning and will not be updated throughout the weekend. Green means great cash game play, yellow means should be in consideration in cash game lineups.