BOTTOM 5 RUSHING MATCHUPS WEEK 10
To view all of our Week 10 Matchup content, please see the links below:
Top 5 Passing Matchups Week 10
Bottom 5 Passing Matchups Week 10
Top 5 Rushing Matchups Week 10
Bottom 5 Rushing Matchups Week 10
Rushing Matchup Chart Week 10
Passing Matchup Chart Week 10
New England vs Baltimore
The Patriots pass game hasn’t always been fun to watch here in 2020, and it’s been made even shakier by a handful of crucial injuries. Wideouts Julian Edelman and NKeal Harry have been shelved over the past few weeks, forcing the likes of Jakobi Meyers (35% of targets) and Damiere Byrd (18%) into prominent roles. It’s hard to argue with the moderate production they’ve put up (a combined 136 yards a game), but it’s equally hard to get excited about it. Cam Newton simply doesn’t have much firepower to throw to, and he hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass since Week 3. It’s fair to look at Monday night’s modest outing - 274 yards on 35 attempts - as a relatively hard ceiling for this attack.
The Ravens, armed with a star-studded pass rush and secondary, continue to throttle down virtually every opposing pass game. They haven’t let an opponent reach 230 yards through the air - nor a single receiver to hit 80 - since back in Week 4. The Ravens boast the league’s best cornerback trio, which stifled the Colts without the services of All-Pro Marlon Humphrey (COVID-19). He’ll likely be cleared by this weekend. Humphrey, Marcus Peters, and Jimmy Smith are all skilled, physical playmakers on the ball, and it’s rare to see a wideout get the better of them. And tight ends have fared no better - only one opponent, Travis Kelce, has been able to top 55 yards. Plenty of credit for all of this goes to the pass rush, which has steadily improved following a slow start to the year. They now sit top-10 league-wide in pressures, knockdowns, and sacks. Calais Campbell won’t suit up Sunday, but this is a deep group capable of generating pressure from all over the formation. Newton can work the blitz just fine but will need to get creative to produce against this unit.
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh
The Bengals have to like what they’ve seen from prized rookie Joe Burrow. Pressed into a high-paced attack behind an ever-shuffling front line, Burrow has put his athleticism and aggressiveness to ideal use. He’s proving fearless in the face of the rush, driving the ball downfield to a wide array of receivers. And he’s been up to the task in shootouts, topping 300 yards 5 times already. Unfortunately, this week he’ll not only face off against a smothering Steelers defense, but he’ll again do so with a juggling cast of bodies up front. Tackles Jonah Williams and Bobby Hart - not exactly difference-makers themselves - look questionable at best for Sunday. The patchwork line held up surprisingly well against the Titans but faces a completely different animal Sunday, which doesn’t bode well for the rookie passer. He’s already pushing balls through tight downfield windows, which tend to close up quickly in the Pittsburgh secondary.
The Steelers, however, stand as more than a mere obstacle for Burrow’s rookie run. Through 8 games, not a single opposing passer has reached 280 yards, and most of those coming close have needed garbage/catch-up mode to do so. There simply aren’t many ways to attack this unit, which boasts high-impact pieces on every level. It all starts up front, with a pass rush that leads the league by a mile in pressure rate and sacks. T.J. Watt (21 quarterback hits, 6.5 sacks) and Stephon Tuitt (17 and 6.0) would be true Defensive Player of the Year candidates in a world in which Aaron Donald didn’t exist. In the secondary, the trio of Joe Haden, Steven Nelson, and Mike Hilton is unspectacular but still underappreciated. They complement each other well, typically funneling the offensive production to one receiver each week. As a result, they’ve managed to erase the likes of Odell Beckham, Marquise Brown, and Mark Andrews from their respective gameplans. As always, Minkah Fitzpatrick looms as a playmaker on all levels of the field. It will be interesting to see where Burrow will be forced to attack - provided he’s able to stay consistently upright.
Seattle at LA Rams
The Seahawks’ pass game continues to simply burn its way through the NFL. Russell Wilson remains the MVP frontrunner, posting a robust 8.6 yards per attempt and 318 a game. Tyler Lockett is a dynamic playmaker on all levels, and we’re in the midst of a major star turn from the electric DK Metcalf. Dominant both deep and in the open field, Metcalf has posted 90+ yards in 7 of 8 games while filling several various niches. Still, it must be noted this high-powered attack has grown more mistake-prone of late. with Wilson forced week after week into frantic deep-ball shootouts. They’re hitting on most if not all cylinders, but regression could come around at any moment. That’s of particular concern when facing a stingy defensive matchup like this one.
The Rams’ star-studded pass defense might not be quite as dominant as it appears. They haven’t faced a very impressive stretch of opposing offenses, after all. Still, even if it’s a bit overstated, this unit is strong and capable of shutting down a passing attack. It all starts up front, where Aaron Donald (15 hits on the quarterback, 9.0 sacks) remains the NFL’s most dominant pass-rush presence. He just keeps ascending toward a Reggie White Jr/Lee Roy Selmon level of greatness, and quarterbacks are clearly affected even when he’s triple-teamed out of the play. On the back end, Jalen Ramsey is such a shutdown presence he’s virtually never tested in man coverage. Ramsey is versatile and can suffocate receivers both inside and out, and he’s often asked to shadow opposing No. 1s. That means he’ll see some time on Lockett out of the slot, while his duels with Metcalf will make for must-see football. It’s hard to envision anyone slowing the red-hot Seahawks right now - but it’s also tough to picture an opponent truly carving up the Rams. Something will have to give, and Wilson and his weapons likely project closer to their floors this week.
Tennessee vs Indianapolis
The Titans have overachieved through the air during Ryan Tannehill’s tenure, averaging 257 yards over his first 16 starts. But there’s been a clear level-off over the past 3 weeks, plunging to just 204 over that span (on a weak 57% completion rate). Some of that can be blamed on tough scheduling, but Tannehill has definitely looked less comfortable of late. This offense continues to rise and fall on the legs of Derrick Henry; when he’s churning through defenses, Tannehill and his weapons can win on quick strikes and play-action. But that’s a tough sell against the stout Indianapolis defense, which is capable of containing both components. A.J. Brown, Jonnu Smith, and Co. will face a much taller task than usual as they look to make noise down the field.
The Colts’ rebuilt pass defense continues to stifle opposing pass games from all angles. They’ve only allowed 2 of 8 opponents to top 250 yards through the air, and those two weren’t particularly efficient (an 87.9 rating), relying mostly on catch-up volume. Much of the credit goes to the cornerback group - and most of that is reserved for Xavier Rhodes, who’s bounced right back onto his All-Pro level of 2017. Rhodes isn’t shadowing specific receivers as often as he did in Minnesota but has consistently shut down the right side for the Colts. He’s been the driving force in limiting dynamic opponents like Adam Thielen (31 yards on 8 targets), Odell Beckham (58 on 9), Marvin Jones (39 on 7), and Marquise Brown (38 on 5). It helps, of course, that the pass rush continues to win up front (sixth in pressure rate) and alter throws. Tannehill, who relies on big plays popping up between the zones, has his work cut out against this tough, disciplined unit.
Minnesota at Chicago
The Vikings, it’s fair to say, remain a run-dominant team whenever game script allows for it. They’ve thrown 30+ passes just twice all season - both shootout losses - and only 34 times over the past 2 weeks. At least Kirk Cousins (9.1 yards per attempt) and his two dynamic wideouts, Adam Thielen and rookie Justin Jefferson, are generally efficient when they do air things out. Thielen and Jefferson are adept at crawling between the defensive zones and making plays, which allows Cousins to take advantage on play-action. They do boast five 100-yard games and 10 touchdowns between them, after all. Still, this is a fairly dependent attack, one that needs game flow - and defensive cooperation - to post usable fantasy numbers. And the deck appears stacked against them this week, in a road date with the Bears’ suffocating secondary.
The Bears are widely viewed as a fraudulent 5-4 team, even on a losing streak, but that’s almost entirely attributable to their pathetic offense. The pass defense, on the other hand, remains one of the game’s most imposing matchups. Through 8 games they’ve yet to allow a 300-yard day through the air, with opponents mustering an anemic 6.7 per attempt. In fact, in all 3 of their 250-yard days, the opposing passer has had to throw 40+ times to get there. There’s difference-making talent all over the formation, with Khalil Mack and Akiem Hicks spearheading things as a top pass-rush duo. They set the table well for an elite secondary that boasts shutdown talent everywhere. Cornerback Kyle Fuller and Eddie Jackson remain the backbone of the group, and both have excelled here in 2020. But the bigger story has been the breakout of rookie Jaylon Johnson, who like Fuller has laid claim to 99% of the defensive snaps and spun them into gold. Those two have kept more than their share of strong opposing wideouts in check, which bodes poorly for the Vikings’ concentrated, two-pronged attack. Thielen and Jefferson will find downfield opportunities hard to come by Sunday.
