Winning on FantasyDraft - Week 5

Photo: USA Today Sports

Footballguys has partnered with FantasyDraft and as part of that deal, I will be penning a weekly piece that tries to cover some of the finer points on beating their contests. This article will usually appear on Saturdays and not include the early Thursday games.

My approach to FantasyDraft's Daily Games

In salary cap games where other companies are determining prices, I like to see where their thoughts differ substantially from my projections. My value chart below matches my projections against FantasyDraft's prices:

Some explanation of my Excel manipulation is in order:

• Everything is sorted by position
• I have converted my projections to FantasyDraft Fantasy Points. These figures appear in the FP column.
• The Price column reflects FantasyDraft's Week 5 Price
• The Ratio column reflects the expected points multiplier (per thousand of salary). The higher the value the better.
• H-Value represents our own proprietary formula that matches the price and expected fantasy points (the higher the value the better).
• ETP = A team's expected points via the Las Vegas spread and under/over totals. The higher the better.
• In the 2017 Cracking DFS books, I demonstrated that selecting players who were in the upper half of the Ratio, H-Value, and Expected Team Point indicators at their positions led to the best fantasy success. I call these three factors the Criteria.
• I have highlighted the player's names (in green) that should be strong considerations for your lineups. Most of these players meet the criteria factors. These selections generally reflect the most bang for the buck at their respective positions. Players in yellow represent other selections that I rate slightly worse than the top plays at their position. Players in blue represent potential boosts due to others scratching.

Expected Team Points

Make sure you get your shares of players involved on teams with expected high team totals. Here are the nine NFL teams expected of scoring at least 24 points on this slate. Listed by descending expected team points:

• Kansas City Chiefs (vs IND) - 33.50 points
• Philadelphia Eagles (vs NYJ) - 29.00 points
• New England Patriots (at WAS) - 28.75 points
• Houston Texans (vs ATL) - 27.00 points
• Cincinnati Bengals (vs ARI) - 25.25 points
• Los Angeles Chargers (vs DEN) - 25.25 points
• Dallas Cowboys (vs GB) - 25.25 points
• New Orleans Saints (vs TB) - 24.50 points
• Minnesota Vikings (at NYG) - 24.25 points

Injury/Inactive Watch

• Chargers' pass-catchers - The Chargers have a plus-match against the Broncos but have Mike Williams, Travis Benjamin, and Virgil Green tagged as questionable to play. If some of these players scratch, WR Keenan Allen and RB Austin Ekeler would likely have expanded roles. If they all play, I don't think this is a great spot to pay up for WR Keenan Allen.
  
  
• Colts' skill players - I have both WR T.Y. Hilton and RB Marlon Mack playing in this high-scoring affair. If one were to scratch, the other will likely grade out as one of my top plays of the week. If Mack scratches, Nyheim Hines would also have an expanded role.
  
  
• WR Sammy Watkins - He was downgraded in Friday's practice. If he scratches, WRs Demarcus Robinson and Mecole Hardman should have an expanded role. WR Tyreek Hill lurks as well but is expected to be at least a week away.

Situations that stand out to me this week

• Kansas City Passing Offense vs Indianapolis Passing Defense - The Chiefs are averaging 378 yards and 2.5 touchdowns per contest through the air. The Colts have been well-below average at covering the passing game yielding 245 yards and 2.2 touchdowns per game. Patrick Mahomes II should light up the scoreboard at home.
  
  
• Baltimore Passing Offense vs Pittsburgh Passing Defense - Despite the perception that Lamar Jackson is a running quarterback, the Ravens are logging 291 yards and 2.8 touchdowns a game through the air. The Steelers have been vulnerable to the pass yielding 280 passing yards and 1.8 touchdowns a contest.
  
  
• Dallas Rushing Offense vs Green Bay Rushing Defense - The Cowboys are averaging 146 yards and 1.2 touchdowns a game on the ground. They play an opponent yielding 148 yards and 1.2 touchdowns on the ground. As home favorites against a run-funnel defense that is excellent at defending the pass, look for the Cowboys to feature Ezekiel Elliott early and often.

Cash+ Stacks I am targeting (listed highest to lowest RATIO)

• QB Patrick Mahomes II / TE Travis Kelce (Cost = $26,300, FP = 45.7, Ratio = 1.74)
• QB Andy Dalton / WR Auden Tate (Cost = $17,500, FP = 30.2, Ratio = 1.73)
• QB Matt Ryan / TE Austin Hooper (Cost = $19,400, FP = 33.6, Ratio = 1.73)
• QB Patrick Mahomes II / WR Demarcus Robinson (Cost = $23,100, FP = 39.2, Ratio = 1.70)
• QB Lamar Jackson / TE Mark Andrews (Cost = $22,500, FP = 37.1, Ratio = 1.65)
• QB Carson Wentz / TE Zach Ertz (Cost = $22,300, FP = 36.6, Ratio = 1.64)
• QB Matt Ryan / WR Mohamed Sanu (Cost = $19,300, FP = 31.7, Ratio = 1.64)
• RB David Montgomery / TD Chicago Bears (Cost = $16,600, FP = 26.9, Ratio = 1.62)
• QB Patrick Mahomes II / WR Sammy Watkins (Cost = $26,100, FP = 42.4, Ratio = 1.62)
• RB Christian McCaffrey / TD Carolina Panthers (Cost = $22,000, FP = 35.2, Ratio = 1.60)
• QB Teddy Bridgewater / WR Michael Thomas (Cost = $22,300, FP = 35.7, Ratio = 1.60)
• QB Andy Dalton / WR Tyler Boyd (Cost = $22,200, FP = 35.3, Ratio = 1.59)
• QB Mason Rudolph / WR Diontae Johnson (Cost = $18,300, FP = 29.0, Ratio = 1.58)
• QB Deshaun Watson / WR Will Fuller (Cost = $21,500, FP = 33.7, Ratio = 1.57)
• QB Philip Rivers / WR Keenan Allen (Cost = $24,600, FP = 38.5, Ratio = 1.57)
• QB Lamar Jackson / WR Marquise Brown (Cost = $24,200, FP = 37.8, Ratio = 1.56)
• RB Derrick Henry / TD Tennessee Titans (Cost = $16,800, FP = 26.1, Ratio = 1.55)
• QB Tom Brady / WR Julian Edelman (Cost = $23,900, FP = 37.0, Ratio = 1.55)
• RB Joe Mixon / TD Cincinnati Bengals (Cost = $16,300, FP = 25.1, Ratio = 1.54)
• QB Aaron Rodgers / WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling (Cost = $21,200, FP = 32.4, Ratio = 1.53)
• QB Patrick Mahomes II / WR Mecole Hardman (Cost = $24,000, FP = 36.8, Ratio = 1.53)
• QB Deshaun Watson / WR DeAndre Hopkins (Cost = $26,900, FP = 40.8, Ratio = 1.52)
• QB Kyler Murray / WR Larry Fitzgerald (Cost = $23,200, FP = 34.9, Ratio = 1.50)

Players for GPP differentiation

• QBs: Jacoby Brissett, Tom Brady, Mason Rudolph, Aaron Rodgers, Daniel Jones
• RBs: Damien Williams, Chris Thompson, Royce Freeman, James Conner, Wayne Gallman
• WRs: Allen Robinson, Emmanuel Sanders, Cole Beasley, Courtland Sutton, Diontae Johnson
• TEs: Jared Cook, Delanie Walker, Evan Engram, Nick Vannett, Noah Fant
• Def: Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, Kansas City, Oakland, Dallas

Sample Roster 1 ($60K) - Cash+ KC Stack Projected Points = (163.9)

• QB Patrick Mahomes II, KC - $14,200
• RB Leonard Fournette, JAC - $12,100
• RB Dalvin Cook, MIN - $16,000
• TE Travis Kelce, KC - $12,100
• WR Michael Thomas, NO - $12,100
• WR Auden Tate, CIN - $7,000
• Flex: WR Tyler Boyd, CIN $11,700
• Flex: TE Darren Waller, OAK - $9,300
• TD Los Angeles Chargers - $5,300

Sample Roster 2 ($60K) - Cash+ KC Stack Projected Points = (163.4)

• QB Patrick Mahomes II, KC - $14,200
• RB Christian McCaffrey, CAR - $17,000
• RB Dalvin Cook, MIN - $16,000
• TE Travis Kelce, KC - $12,100
• WR Michael Thomas, NO - $12,100
• WR Auden Tate, CIN - $7,000
• Flex: TE Darren Waller, OAK - $9,300
• Flex: TE Greg Olsen, CAR - $7,300
• TD Carolina Panthers - $5,000