#Trendspotting: Week 13

Ryan Hester's #Trendspotting: Week 13 Ryan Hester Published 11/28/2019

Reader's Guide

As you read, you may run into some colors in the text. Blue text is a good matchup for that team's offensive players. Red text is a bad matchup. Some other key items are below:

  • All red/blue highlighting in tables is relative to the entire NFL, even when showing a limited number of teams.
  • All reference to fantasy points assumes DraftKings scoring rules unless otherwise specified.
  • All stats reference the full 2018 season unless otherwise specified.
  • All fantasy points rankings are on a per-game basis to account for bye weeks unless otherwise specified.

This week, we'll discuss the following topics:

Happy Thanksgiving and Turkey Slate Targets

Happy Thanksgiving to all. Some may find this to be an overrated holiday, but it's my personal favorite. I'd like to thank each and every Footballguys subscriber - especially those who click on this sometimes-too-long mind-dump I call #Trendspotting each week.

As a special thank-you, here are some players to target on the three-game Thanksgiving Day slate. Please also check out our special Power Grid episode dedicated to this slate. But don't worry, we also covered the entire main slate as well.

In no particular order, here are some solid plays for Thursday's games. Note: these are mostly GPP plays because playing cash games on three-game slates is a difficult task.

Player Comments
Tarik Cohen DET 32nd NSoS vs. RBs in the last five weeks; CHI target distribution narrowed
Ezekiel Elliott Most concentrated RB touch distribution on the slate; home favorite; BUF 30th NSoS RBs
Anthony Miller Bears injuries will push him into a bigger role; DET yielding big days to slots lately (Renfrow and Cobb)
Isaiah McKenzie No fewer than 54% snaps across last four games; six designed rush attempts show team willingness to use him
Javon Wims Bears WR and TE injuries trickle-down effect; min-priced player who will be on the field
Chicago DST They were good before we knew Driskel was out; now they face an undrafted rookie on a short week
Jared Cook The only TE of consequence on the slate; differentiate around him
Jaeden Graham If you must fade Cook do it with Graham
Michael Thomas Hard to pass on 5 straight over 100 yards and 8 straight with 8+ catches

Follow the Targets

This section will examine which offensive positions have the most success through the air against certain defenses.

RBs WRs TEs
Defense Tgt % YdsRk TDs Tgt % YdsRk TDs Tgt % YdsRk TDs Opponent
Arizona Cardinals 20.0% 29 4 56.7% 27 12 23.3% 32 12 Los Angeles Rams
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17.1% 4 1 62.6% 32 18 20.3% 31 7 Jacksonville Jaguars
Detroit Lions 20.0% 30 7 63.0% 25 11 17.0% 23 4 Chicago Bears
Seattle Seahawks 17.0% 19 1 59.3% 22 7 23.6% 29 5 Minnesota Vikings
Oakland Raiders 21.7% 26 5 55.5% 28 13 22.8% 20 8 Kansas City Chiefs
Atlanta Falcons 20.8% 12 3 58.9% 30 14 20.3% 10 4 New Orleans Saints
New York Giants 20.2% 18 0 63.3% 31 15 16.4% 3 3 Green Bay Packers
Houston Texans 23.3% 31 4 55.3% 14 14 21.4% 16 3 New England Patriots

Commentary

  • Detroit is allowing 58.0 receiving yards per game to running backs, third-most in the NFL.
  • Detroit has allowed seven receiving touchdowns to running backs, most in the NFL.
  • Chicago targets its running backs on 27.9% of pass attempts, the second-highest ratio in the NFL.
  • Chicago running backs catch 31.7% of the team's total receptions, the fourth-highest ratio.
  • Chicago running backs gain 20.2% of the team's receiving yardage, the ninth-highest ratio.
  • Arizona is allowing 76.9 yards per game to tight ends.
  • Arizona is allowing 1.1 touchdowns per game to tight ends.
  • Arizona is allowing 21.4 DraftKings points per game to tight ends.
  • All of those totals are the worst in the NFL.
  • Oakland has allowed eight touchdowns to tight ends, second-most in the NFL.
  • Tampa Bay is allowing 15.5 receptions per game to wide receivers.
  • Tampa Bay is allowing 206.1 yards per game to wide receivers.
  • Tampa Bay is allowing 1.6 touchdowns per game to wide receivers.
  • Tampa Bay is allowing 49.7 DraftKings points per game to wide receivers.
  • All of those totals are the worst in the NFL.

Action Items

He was included in the Turkey Slate section above, but Tarik Cohen is worth another mention. Detroit is putrid against running backs, Chicago doesn't want to throw it all over the field, and Chicago's target distribution is more narrow this week due to injuries. Cohen was a better play before Jeff Driskel was declared out, but he's still a good value. David Montgomery is now also in play for a more run-heavy approached and clock-killing mode.

"Arizona vs. tight ends" has been one of the more consistently exploitable matchups at any position all season long. In a typical week, the Rams tight end duo that loses snaps to "11" personnel wouldn't be a safe and appealing option.

But Gerald Everett is hurt, and Tyler Higbee is coming off a six-target, 70% snap rate performance on Monday night. Higbee is also the DraftKings minimum price, putting his squarely in play if Everett is out. It's a stretch to say he's cash viable, but it's not the craziest thing in the world to say.

In another narrow target distribution situation, if Tyreek Hill is out or limited with his hamstring issue, Travis Kelce is basically a wide receiver (and likely a WR1). The team's total is high, the matchup is pristine, and the team likes to target him. Without a full complement of weapons, those efficient targets should only rise.

Another consistently exploitable matchup has been passing games against Tampa Bay. And Jacksonville has three viable wide receivers. Let's see how those players have been utilized since Nick Foles returned in Week 11.

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Week 11 Week 12 Combined
Player Snap % Tgt % AirYd% Snap % Tgt % AirYd% Snap % Tgt % AirYd%
D.J. Chark 93.7% 32.6% 51.5% 93.3% 13.6% 14.7% 93.4% 23.3% 34.1%
Dede Westbrook 84.1% 13.0% 9.5%