#Trendspotting: Week 3

Ryan Hester's #Trendspotting: Week 3 Ryan Hester Published 09/19/2019

Reader's Guide

As you read, you may run into some colors in the text. Blue text is a good matchup for that team's offensive players. Red text is a bad matchup. Some other key items are below:

  • All highlighting in tables is relative to the entire NFL, even when showing a limited number of teams or players.
  • All reference to fantasy points assumes DraftKings scoring rules unless otherwise specified.
  • All stats reference the full 2018 season unless otherwise specified.
  • All fantasy points rankings are on a per-game basis to account for bye weeks unless otherwise specified.

This week, we'll discuss the following topics:

Looks Can Be Deceiving

In later installments of this section, we'll examine our Normalized Strength of Schedule (NSoS) metric against raw Defense vs. Position (DvP) stats. But since NSoS doesn't debut until Week 5, let's find some other early-season trends that can be deceiving.

The idea is to examine teams significantly better or worse in 2019 than they were in 2018 and see if those drastic changes are exploitable going forward ("real") or if they're mostly due to small sample size ("noise").

Team 2018 2019 Delta
Arizona vs. QBs 5 31 -26
Tampa Bay vs. QBs 30 5 25
Atlanta vs. RBs 29 15 14
Pittsburgh vs. RBs 8 26 -18
Green Bay vs. WRs 28 4 24
Jacksonville vs. WRs 1 18 -17
Baltimore vs. WRs 6 20 -14
Atlanta vs. WRs 27 7 20
N.Y. Giants vs. WRs 9 30 -21 
Rankings shown in 2018 and 2019 columns are DvP
(raw fantasy points allowed to that position)
"Delta" = ranking decline or improvement from 2018 to 2019

Arizona vs. QBs - REAL

Some of Arizona's production can be attributed to Lamar Jackson's legs. But the Cardinals are allowing 25.7 passing fantasy points per game, fourth-most in the NFL. The suspended Patrick Peterson hasn't helped matters. While Peterson will return eventually, Arizona's increased offensive pace should continue to lead to opponent production.

This Week: Cam Newton is likely out, which means he misses out on a "get-right" opportunity. But Kyle Allen is now a starter with a next-to-free price tag in DFS. Allen's lone regular-season experience as a starter was in Week 17 last season. He passed for 228 yards and 2 touchdowns and added a rushing touchdown. That yielded a QB8 finish, albeit in a week where many high-end players rested.

Allen should be on your radar - even in cash games - in a pace-up situation against a poor secondary. The lineup that can be made with Allen plugged in at quarterback is drool-worthy.

Tampa Bay vs. QBs - REAL

Todd Bowles has Tampa's defense looking like a polar opposite of the unit that was laughably bad last season. Tampa Bay has yielded only one passing touchdown. Don't expect them to be a top-five squad vs. quarterbacks all season, but they shouldn't fall to the bottom again.

Don't get cute and think about playing Daniel Jones in his debut - especially at DraftKings, where he's priced up from the minimum and is $1,000 more than Allen.

Atlanta vs. RBs - NOISY

Atlanta is allowing 3.7 yards per rush, eighth-lowest in the NFL, and they're one of 11 teams to allow 8 or fewer receptions to running backs. However, Atlanta is still a team to target for receiving backs. They faced only 10 pass attempts in Week 1. And in Week 2, they faced a Philadelphia team that targeted its running backs at the eighth-lowest rate in the league last season.

This Week: Marlon Mack's usage is head-and-shoulders above that of Nyheim Hines.

Week 1 Week 2 Overall
Player Snap % Rush % Tgt % Snap % Rush % Tgt % Snap % Rush % Tgt %
Marlon Mack 76.2% 86.2% 0.0% 68.1% 74.1% 7.7% 71.9% 80.4% 3.8%
Nyheim Hines 27.0% 13.8% 14.8% 19.4% 7.4% 11.5% 23.0% 10.7% 13.2%
Team Total 63 29 27 72 27 26 135 56 53

Mack is a GPP candidate in DFS and should confidently be deployed as an RB2 - bordering on RB1 - in season-long leagues.

Post-publish update: Mack missed practice Wednesday and Thursday, so keep an eye on his status. If Mack is out, Jordan Wilkins would likely lead the backfield in carries, but Hines would probably cut into the usage more than he does with Mack healthy.

Pittsburgh vs. RBs - REAL

In 2018, the Steelers were stout against opposing backs, but they've started 2019 terribly. And the production is coming in all ways. Pittsburgh is yielding 8.5 receptions per game to running backs, second-most in the NFL. And they're allowing 27.5 rushing attempts per game to running backs, third-most. The game scripts are only going to get worse with Mason Rudolph quarterbacking the offense for the rest of the year.

This Week: San Francisco's committee gets the next crack at a Pittsburgh defense that just bolstered its secondary with Minkah Fitzpatrick. But the ground game (and passing to the backs) shouldn't be hindered. Matt Breida and Raheem Mostert are splitting the duties, making neither a cash game play. But Breida is a GPP play, given the fact that he's capable of this:

Green Bay vs. WRs - NOISY

This is purely strength-of-schedule driven. Green Bay has faced a pass-inept opponent in Chicago and a pass-averse opponent in Minnesota.

This Week: Despite Joe Flacco being their quarterback and the offense only averaging 15 points per game, both Courtland Sutton and Emmanuel Sanders have carved out a role.

Week 1 Week 2 Overall
Player Snap % Tgt % Yds % Snap % Tgt % Yds % Snap % Tgt % Yds %
Emmanuel Sanders 89.1% 23.3% 32.1% 92.7% 26.0% 33.6% 91.1% 25.0% 32.9%
Courtland Sutton 89.1% 26.7% 44.8% 95.1% 14.0% 13.7% 92.5% 18.8% 28.6%
DaeSean Hamilton 76.6% 13.3% 1.9% 65.9% 12.0% 1.7% 70.5% 12.5% 1.8%
Team Total 64 30 268 82 50 292 146 80 560

Sutton's reduced Week 2 usage could be a product of Chicago's smothering defense. He looked the part of a true WR1 in Week 1.

Jacksonville vs. WRs - NOISY

Until and unless they trade Jale

Photos provided by Imagn Images
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