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The Top 10: Week 16

Matt Waldman's The Top 10: Week 16
By Matt Waldman, December 16, 2019

The Top 10: Week 16
Photo: USA Today Sports

Mission

The mission of this column—and a lot of my work—is to bridge the gap between fantasy and reality of football analysis. Football analysis—fantasy and reality—is often dramatized because there's a core belief that it's more important to entertain than to educate.

I don't live by the idea that it's better to be lucky than good. While I want to give you actionable recommendations that will help you get results, I prefer to get the process right. There will be a lot of people talking about how they were right to draft or start specific players. Many of them got the right result but with the wrong process.

The Top 10 will cover topics that attempt to get the process right (reality) while understanding that fantasy owners may not have time to wait for the necessary data to determine the best course of action (fantasy).

As always I recommend Sigmund Bloom's Waiver Wire piece which you'll find available on this page on Monday nights. Bloom and I are not always going to agree on players—he errs more often towards players who flash elite athletic ability and I err more towards players who are more technically skilled and assignment-sound.

Straight, No Chaser: Week 15's Cliff's Notes

The article below will provide expanded thoughts and supporting visuals for the following points. This week, we turn it up to 11 and push it over the cliff with an introduction to the 2020 Rookie Scouting Portfolio.

  1. This feature has not covered a "snow game" until this weekend's Broncos-Chiefs affair. Although there are variables that will alter how you apply this information such as wind speed, rate of precipitation, ice content, and temperature, Sunday's game reveals that an intermediate and vertical passing game holds the advantage over a defense whereas plays that require a horizontal stretch of the field before transitioning downhill are treacherous.
  2. Kenyan Drake deserves massive credit for his improvement as a technician. During the first two years of his NFL career in Miami, Drake's inefficient movements produce moments of football slapstick where he'd knock himself silly jump-cutting into the backsides of his teammates. Last year, Drake demonstrated notable improvement. With $10 million man David Johnson and the promising Chase Edmonds in Drake's rearview mirror, it still amazes me that the Dolphins viewed Kalen Ballege or anyone else on Miamis' depth chart as the superior talent and fit.
  3. The common refrain I've heard for the past 2-3 weeks is that Mitchell Trubisky is playing better. He's doing so because he's loosening up on the field once again—in fact, he may be heading in the opposite direction and playing too loose. His against-the-grain throws on Sunday versus the Packers may appear Patrick Mahomes II-like but they are closer to a Mahomes Lounge Act than the real deal.
  4. Yannick Ngakoue had an excellent afternoon against the Raiders, notching five tackles—four for losses—two sacks and a pass defense. In big-play fantasy scoring formats, Ngakoue earned over 40 points for his efforts and I break down why the Raiders had difficulty handing the Jaguars' defensive end and why knowledge of edge play—rushers and blockers—is helpful for any league type.
  5. One of the most important skills for an NFL wide receiver is defeating press coverage—a strategy employed with much less frequency in the college game. One of the highlights of a competitive Texas-Titans clash was DeAndre Hopkins and A.J. Brown showing how they defeat the jam and how their physiques and athletic styles influence their methods.
  6. Raheem Mostert had another solid fantasy week, scoring a touchdown for the fourth straight game. I analyze what makes Mostert a productive player. One of those reasons is a special-teams mentality that Mostert and a few other top contributors on the offense share.
  7. Last week, I shared highlights from rookie right guard Chris Lindstrom's debut for Atlanta and how he will help this offense rebound in 2020. This week, I highlight defensive tackle Grady Jarrett, one of the most talented players in football—an unsung star who has played terrific football on an injury-riddled and unsound unit of teammates. If Atlanta's secondary can grow up fast, I show you why Jarrett's work is good enough to elevate the fantasy values of linebackers and edge rushers playing around him.
  8. Want to see the potential future for Lamar Jackson as a passer? Studying Deshaun Watson might be the key. They have similar arm talents and limitations, which means the types of routes Watson's receivers run could be the way Baltimore expands its offense in 2020 and beyond.
  9. Depending on your belief in ghosts, Josh Gordon will never cross your mind or his presence on a football field haunts you. Although many will permanently write-off Gordon, I see part of my job as exploring those dark corners of our hobby to determine the truth of a player's game. As it stands today, the idea that Gordon is a shadow of himself is preposterous.
  10. This week's Fresh Fish: Austin Hooper's non-catch on the penultimate offensive play of the game illustrates why the Calvin Johnson Rule remains the worst rule in the NFL.
  11. This week, we're turning it up to 11 with a few (hundred) words about the 2020 Rookie Scouting Portfolio. If you've always been curious about my rookie draft guide, you have 11 days left to pre-order the package that includes the pre-draft guide, the post-draft guide, and the June through December newsletter at a discount price. And for those of you long-time subscribers who prefer to wait until that early-bird period is over so you can pay full price, I appreciate you.

For those of you who wish to learn the why's, the details are below.

1. Lessons From A Snow Game

Thanks to the work that I do with my publication, the Rookie Scouting Portfolio, I've found myself in the enviable position of having two, if not all three, of Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes II, and Russell Wilson on my fantasy rosters. The squad where I have all three made my Week 15 lineup choice the easiest because I rolled with Jackson.

If it came down to Mahomes and Wilson, that's where I had difficulty: Mahomes in the snow or betting on the Seahawks passing offense to reappear in the Carolina sunshine. I chose Wilson and while Mahomes outscored Wilson by five fantasy points, it's unlikely this difference will determine the outcome of my playoff matchup.

Regardless of the outcome, watching the Chiefs in the snow was an insightful event because I can't remember the last time I studied a snow game. Hopefully, my observations will help you with future fantasy decisions in snow games. I intend to bookmark this section as a point of reference for future seasons.

Vision, Footing, and Pass Trajectory: The Three Football Variables that Weather Influences

Before you even think about teams or individuals about to step onto a field where the weather is a potential factor, it's best to examine the weather as a third team involved in the contest and the primary influence. Precipitation and wind are the two weather events that can hamper teams.

Wind

Strong and steady winds or frequent wind gusts of great velocity will limit as passing game regardless of the temperature or presence of precipitation because it can alter the trajectory of passes. If your fantasy quarterback lacks velocity as a thrower high winds can hurt his offense and your fantasy production.

Deshaun Watson, Lamar Jackson, Drew Brees, Teddy Bridgewater, Andy Dalton, and Tom Brady are six quarterbacks who lack great velocity as throwers. Watson, Jackson, and Brees all possess quality deep arms but their vertical passing game is built on throws where they can loft the ball longer distances—deep crossers, corner routes, post routes, and fades.

You're not going to see them lean hard on the deep out, the deep comeback, the deep skinny post, the deep curl, or any route that requires the ball to be on a line with a lot of RPMs that can often cut through moderate-to-heavy wind gusts. When lofting the ball over longer distances, a significant wind gust can alter the trajectory of the throw.

A key to determining which quarterbacks that wind will hurt is to note the type of intermediate and vertical routes most commonly embedded in that passer's offense.

Precipitation

Add heavy rain or snow to the mix and it will impair a vertical passing game because quarterbacks will have difficulty spotting receivers and receivers will have problems tracking the ball. Depending on the severity of the weather, wind and precipitation can also impair vision in the intermediate passing game.

If heavy rain or snow is in the forecast, look for information that discusses visibility. If the forecast states there will be zero visibility—defined as less than 330 feet—it's worth reconsidering your receivers, especially if their game is heavily based on vertical routes.

A quarterback and receiver may be able to see each other at the length of a football field but low visibility occurs when there is low-lying cloud cover in the form of fog, mist, or snow flurries. Throwing the ball downfield requires a trajectory that could impair a receiver's ability to track it. This is rare in the rain but common when snow is falling during a game.

Next, determine the rate of accumulation that the area will likely earn from the rain or snow. If there will be a steady amount of rain or snow falling at a moderate to heavy rate, the most common issue with precipitation is the footing and grip of the ball.

Many fields have the drainage and heating elements to combat a steady or moderate rate of precipitation over the course of a game. However, if the media reports that the setting for a rainy game has poor field conditions, the embedded weather elements malfunctioned, or the precipitation is falling at a heavy enough rate that that field's technology lacks the capacity to manage it, then prepare for significant footing and grip issues.

How does this help or hurt individual fantasy production?

The Broncos-Chiefs game provided quality insights. While no blizzard, the snow accumulated at a heavy enough rate that we couldn't see the numbers on the field and the field was mostly white with the green of the grass mixed in. The snow continued falling throughout the game and closeup shots from a field angle revealed the potential visibility issues better than the broadcast view during the span of the play.

If the wind or snowfall was heavier, it would have been a significant obstacle for the quarterbacks to throw the ball downfield. This was not the case.

The biggest issue was footing. In most contests where the weather is a factor, the footing will be the most significant problem and it impedes these aspects of offensive football:

  • The perimeter running game: Sweeps, end-arounds, toss plays, reverses, and to some extent outside zone, power, and counter plays.
  • Offenses that rely on motion at the snap to set up the short passing game to the flats or flare their backs out to the flats.

When there isn't good footing, it's difficult to run fast enough towards the sideline and then change direction downhill at a speed where pursuit doesn't catch up.

Darwin Thompson earned some open looks on wide routes and swing routes in this game and fell at least once while trying to transition downhill.

We've all heard the idea that defenses have just as much if not more trouble as offenses because at least the offensive players know where they're trying to go while the defenders have to react. There's truth to this statement in the passing game because a defender's reactions are often 1-3 steps later than the offensive player's movement, which requires a more dramatic athletic movement to make up ground.

However, there's only partial truth to this statement with the running game. Offensive linemen may know a little more often where they're trying to go but overall, the run game is often a reaction to the alignment and movement of the defense, especially for the ball carrier. In this sense, the ball carrier is often in the same bind as his opponents and leads to cautious movement and limited returns.

Dramatic movement on a slick surface will be difficult, at best.

Defenses have to play more zone on slick turf or risk game-breaking plays if an individual defender loses coverage of a receiver. Even with zone help over the top, the offense holds the advantage in the vertical game if the visibility is high and the wind isn't a problem because speed and quickness become a magnified factor in favor of the offense for the truism mentioned above.

It means that targeting your fastest players on routes where a player can curl back to the passer or bend inside or outside on the break after a straight stem are the best patterns in these conditions. Travis Kelce and Sammy Watkins show why these routes worked against Denver but yards after the catch wasn't going to be a significant factor against zone defenses and slick conditions.

The Chiefs offense succeeded thanks to big and or quick targets who could earn separation early on straight-line routes with less dramatic break angles. Kelce was the ideal target because he could also use his size to his advantage at the catch point on intermediate and deep routes.

Hill had a good day: a 7-target, 5-catch, 67-yard outing with 2 touchdowns. However, his style of play does not apply to all speedy YAC receivers with a vertical game. Hill's supporting cast and scheme heighten his value in these elements whereas it's debatable we'd say the same for Brandin Cooks, who'd deliver similar upside but a lower floor.

The ground game in these elements is probably the most difficult consideration for fantasy players. LeSean McCoy is one of the best runners in snow that you'll ever see but he ran for 16 yards on 6 carries. Spencer Ware earned 26 yards on 7 carries and Darwin Thompson led the way with 38 yards on 8 carries.

The most effective runs will come on downhill plays but defenses will expect these plays in these conditions. The best runners retain some level of cutback and bounce-out ability. McCoy didn't earn a lot of touches but his footwork is the fundamental reason why he was renowned for his work in the snow as a Bill and Eagle.

The key is the skill to execute economical movement with your feet under you. This is achieved with many of the skills I'm about to highlight with the lessons that Kenyan Drake has recently learned—see below.

2. Kenyan Drake, Frank Gore says, 'You're Welcome'

Kenyan Drake began his career in Miami much like Kalen Ballage, an enticing athlete who can catch the ball, change direction, and break tackles, but lacked the refinement of a reliable, professional running back. While fans and fantasy analysts bemoaned the presence of Frank Gore, it was Gore who helped mentor Drake so he eventually learned how to run the football between the tackles.

Yes, this is still important. Otherwise, you're going to continue overvaluing athletes assigned the title of running back who impress during the NFL Combine portion of the NFL's Pre-Draft Soap Opera and understand that it leads the following (Links to Instagram examples below):

That's correct, Kenyan Drake nearly knocked himself cold running into the butts of his own teammates.

Repeatedly.

I don't even have to hear Drake tell the media that Gore helped him get his career on the right track. Watch Drake post-Gore and you'll see it in his limited time on the field during his 2019 purgatory in Miami and his emancipation in Arizona.

This week in Cleveland, Drake made a number of runs that he wouldn't have executed successfully before meeting Gore.

There has to be a behind-the-scenes reason for Drake sitting behind Kalen Ballage and Mark Walton earlier this year because Drake was clearly the best running back on the roster and arguably the most talented skill player on the team.

With David Johnson set to earn $10 million next, look for Drake earn the starting job at a discount in 2020 and Chase Edmonds to serve as the change of pace. Drake's instant acceleration, speed, and receiving skill make him an attractive alternative to Johnson.

3. Mitchell Trubisky's Patrick Mahomes II Lounge Act

The common narrative about Mitchell Trubisky is his improved play after Week 12. Here's the quick version of what I thought about Trubisky's performance against the Packers:

  • Neither of his interceptions was critical errors within the context of the game.
  • His play was looser and relaxed.
  • He made bold decisions based on his athletic ability that worked.
  • There were at least 3-4 passes that would have been critical errors in this game if intercepted—and that should have been the outcome.
  • He lacks a barometer for when loose, bold play is not a good idea.

In essence, Trubisky did Mahomes-like things on Sunday.

However, he's doing a cheap lounge act of Mahomes that won't make it to the big stage without dramatic improvement to the intellect and conceptual maturity that underscores Mahomes's game.

Although this is an accurate throw that's successful, the fact he tries this backed up in his own end zone is a reminder that Trubisky skill lacks the wisdom as a decision-maker inside the 20s that has plagued him since he was North Carolina's starter.

Trubisky is a higher-grade talent than Blake Bortles but they're both players that require a lot of help to run a competitive team. The Bears have the supporting cast but it needs a skilled leader under center who can put them in positions to succeed, eliminate egregious mistakes, and help those talents develop to their fullest.

Trubisky is too busy trying to find his own way as a player to be these things. I fear sooner or later, the Bears organization will also arrive at this realization.

4. Yannick Ngakoue's IDP Explosion and It's Universal Fantasy Implications

Jaguars defensive end Yannick Ngakoue is one of the best speed rushers in the NFL. Yesterday, his performance that included five tackles (four for a loss), two sacks, and one pass defense earned Ngakoue over 40 points in big-play IDP leagues.

The Raiders offensive line is a big, strong unit of road graders and they had no answer for an edge defender with Ngakoue's extreme quickness.

Ngakoue's quickness was so superior to the tackles he faced, the Raiders tried the combo of a tight end and running back and Ngakoue weaved through them like a Three-Cone Drill. When evaluating the potential of edge rushers here are some basic things you want to know:

  • Does he have a quick first and second step off of the line? Examine how much ground they cover or how far along they are with their plan of attack relative to the opponent's readiness at the same moment.
  • Can he bend? Does the player show flexibility with his ankles and knees to plant with his inside foot and point the toe to the quarterback as he's turning the corner on the lineman leaning on him?
  • Can he use his hands in multiple ways to gain a position on the blocker? Can he set up a swim move when the blocker is positioned in a crouch or on his toes? Can he deliver a rip when the defender is too upright? Does he have other tools in his arsenal to swat away the reach of a blocker or eliminate leverage of the blocker?
  • Does he have an inside move as a chang-up to his outside rush methods?

Ngakoue possesses all of these skills. And when an edge rusher with cat-like quickness and a variety of moves in his arsenal faces a big and strong line, expect the edge rusher to have the advantage on passing downs and, if his teammate is a sturdy run stuffer like Calais Campbell on the inside, he'll also be freed up to make bold attacks of the backfield in the run game when the opponent runs away from him.

For non-IDP fantasy players, understanding how a quick edge rusher matches up with a big offensive line can alter your expectations for your offensive players that face him. Ngakoue is a bigger hindrance to quarterback play and vertical receivers that lean hard on the vertical passing game. Consider these options boom-bust.

As for the ground attack, if the defensive unit has strong tackle play upfront, a good edge defender may earn more tackles for loss and limit the attempts or the quality of attempts that a runner earns as the game unfolds. However, if only one side of the defensive front is excellent, the team may have enough success running away from the most talented side of the unit. This was the case for Josh Jacobs and the Raiders. Jacobs didn't have a big day, but 24 carries for 89 yards and a total of 26 touches for 109 yards is a moderate success.

Ngakoue is the No.5 fantasy defensive end in big-play IDP format, averaging 19 fantasy points per game, despite missing Week 2. He's only had four weeks where he's been held to less than 15 points in a game. He moved up five spots in the defensive end rankings on the strength of Week 15's game.

Expect another good week against the Falcons Jake Matthews, who has his struggles against elite speedsters off the edge.

5. Defeating Press Coverage with DeAndre Hopkins and A.J. Brown

One of the most important skills for an NFL wide receiver is defeating press coverage—a strategy employed with much less frequency in the college game. One of the highlights of a competitive Texas-Titans clash was DeAndre Hopkins and A.J. Brown showing how they defeat the jam and how their physiques and athletic styles influence their methods.

Hopkins and Brown are both physical players but in different ways. Brown is big and strong and still figuring out how to use these assets to his advantage and without incurring penalties for throwing defensive backs around.

While he has quick and powerful hands and anticipates attempts to jam him, his early NFL experiences where he's been penalized for getting too physical has probably led him to tone down his usage as he tweaks ways to be physical without freaking out officials as the bodies hit the floor.

One thing that Brown has learned is the strategic place of his hands to finish off defenders who try to reroute him with physical play. "Try" is the keyword here because it's difficult for corners to slow down Brown on the perimeter when they put their hands on him.

Hopkins can handle physical play but he's not the immovable object we see with Brown. Defenders can move him around but these tactics don't easily distract Hopkins.

He's also an aggressive receiver who often turns his reactions to press into power counter punches. It's fair to characterize Hopkins as the receiver who brings brass knuckles to a wrestling match. He'll often strike first and hard when the defender has only made a hint of a move.

However, Hopkins also has the capability to deliver technically-precise counters to the jam and incorporate leverage and power into the interaction. Here's a play from Sunday where Hopkins takes the cornerback's jam, lifts it off his chest and turns the defender's chest to the sideline as he runs inside of him for a successful slant route.

When you consider Brown's mobility and quickness, it's easy to see that the rookie has the potential to do a lot of the things Hopkins does but withe more explosion to his game.

Brown's ability after the catch, against tight man coverage, catch radius, and big-play speed make him a fantasy talent capable of transcending the limitations of many quarterbacks. That last part sounds a lot like Hopkins.

That stats and route running will compel fantasy analysts to rightly tout Terry McLaurin in 2020. D.K. Metcalf will earn his love thanks to a strong rookie year and Rusell Wilson as his pilot.

Brown's upside is higher than both and his floor is closer to McLaurin's than Metcalf's.

6. What Makes Raheem Mostert's GAme Tick?

Raheem Mostert is a for-real fantasy talent even if Matt Breida is the more talented running back on the team. However, Mostert's game combines the best of Breida and Tevin Coleman's talents while, so far, lacking their pitfalls.

Like Breida and Coleman, Mostert is a true speedster. And like Breida, he has the footwork of a high-end runner that Coleman lacks in specific areas. This cutback to the inside is a great example of Mostert's ability to access creases while eliminating good angles from pursuit. At the same time, he's also a decisive runner who takes what's there and doesn't try too hard to create outside the best course of the play within the context of the game.

The most fascinating thing about Mostert is his refusal to give up special teams. He's one of the best gunners the 49ers have on returns.

Seeing this video may lead some of you to the conclusion that Mostert's tenure as a starter will be short-lived and he'll return to a reserve role in the backfield. However, it's worth noting that Kyle Jusczyck and Ross Dwelley both play special teams and Jusczyck is a prominent starter for the 49ers.

Consider Mostert a potential lead back in a committee with an upside outlook of remaining that way for another 1-3 years, depending on his tenure with the 49ers. He's a five-year NFL veteran who is making the most of his opportunity in San Francisco. It's conceivable the 49ers stick with its three-headed backfield and use the healthiest options and it's equally plausible that it deals some of the existing talents and acquires new blood to work with whoever is left over.

I'd bet on Mostert remaining with the team because of his special teams work, performance in the offense, and loyalty to Shanahan for sticking by him early in his tenure after having some issues with turnovers. I think Coleman is the most expendable as a talent but if one of the backs is gone in 2020, I'd bet on Breida as the one most likely to go due to his injury history.

7. Why Defensive TAckle Grady Jarrett is an Unsung Football Hero and Atlanta's Defensive Foundation

One of Mostert's best runs was a play that Falcons defensive tackle Grady Jarrett ended. It was a fascinating play because of the great work on both sides of the ball—especially the unsung Jarrett.

Quick, strong, technically-sound, and possessing a high motor to pursue until the play is over, Jarrett is the star of this defense—not Vic Beasley Jr, Tak McKinlye, or Deion Jones.

Every team that plays Atlanta's defense knows that addressing where Jarrett is on a play as well as mitigating his efforts is the key to its success. If Atlanta can build a secondary with excellent cornerback play, this athletic defense could be a fast riser because Jarrett's work can provide one-on-ones to the edge rusher as well as disrupt the middle so the linebackers can clean up—and the Falcons need to invest in at least two more starting linebackers.

Jarrett is the No.3 defensive tackle in big-play IDP leagues, only behind Aaron Donald and DeForest Buckner. Donald averages 3.6 more points per game than Jarrett but Jarrett is less than a point off Buckner's pace and without the supporting cast of talent that Donald and Buckner enjoy.

Atlanta's defense has some road to travel, but if the Falcons focus mostly on this unit during the offseason, the Falcons offense has enough talent that an improved defense could elevate this team back into contention in 2020.

8. Deshaun Watson's GAme is A Glimpse Into Lamar Jackson's Future

As mentioned earlier when discussing the impact of weather on quarterbacks, Watson and Jackson lack top-notch velocity as throwers. They can flick the ball a mile but that's a different trait of throwing talent from velocity.

They struggle with timing routes that require a throw with a flat trajectory and lots of mustard to fit it into tight coverage at an angle where defenders are trailing tight at a high rate of speed or coming downhill to attack the route. Force these two quarterbacks into these throws and their accuracy is often catchable, at best and frequently well off the mark.

This doesn't make them subpar quarterback talents. If the past 7-8 years of NFL quarterback should have taught you anything, it's that the prototypical template for robot quarterbacks reinforced by old men who would recognize a young Henry Ford in public is no longer the NFL reality.

Watson and Jackson are not only terrific creators with their legs but excellent throwers with excellent placement of the ball and strong decision-making. Offenses aren't being molded around them because they can only run; they're being molded around them to exploit those ground skills in a way that also sets up their passing prowess.

It's ok if some of you can't accept this, because your kids or grandkids will likely explain it to you and because you love them, you'll probably be more amenable to the message at this point. If not, watch out for your catheter.

Watson and Jackson produce in the vertical passing game on routes where they can place air under the ball and the combination of their ball-handling and running skills create opportunities to exploit these routes that often require a little more time to develop. The Texans figured this out early with Watson and these are the majority of the intermediate and deep routes you'll see Watson target on the perimeter.

Because Jackson didn't play until midway through his rookie year and then the Ravens changed some of the offense while adding a pair of rookie receivers the following you, there's not as much rapport between Jackson and Marquise Brown and Miles Boykin as there is with Watson and DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller.

Even a veteran like Kenny Stills has a leg-up on the Brown and Boykin, who are still acclimating to the league. Plus, Brown missed most practices this spring and summer because of he was rehabbing foot surgery.

It means there will be a lot of football writers who will harp on the limitations of the Ravens passing game in 2019 without giving enough consideration to its growth potential just on the basis of developing an offseason of rapport with three players who average less than a year of game experience in the NFL. If there's a template for who this will develop schematically, the Texans offense is the place.

Don't expect the Ravens to morph into the Texans offense but they will borrow from Houston's vertical game to match what Jackson has in common with Watson. This is also why there is still hope for Brown and Boykin.

9. A Haunting in Seattle: Josh Gordon Remains For Real

The phone rings at the RSP office and goes immediately to voice mail (I'm watching film)...

"You have reached the last remaining chapter of the Josh Gordon Is Good Society (JGIGS). Please leave your name and number, and we will get back to you soon. If you're contacting us about drug testing, please press *66 for instructions on setting up an appointment. Onterrio Smith is no longer employed with us."

Most of you have had enough with Josh Gordon and those that haven't been anxious about the prospect of carrying him on your roster. We at JGIGS understand that our primary job is to educate.

You can read our updated literature on Gordon here. If you're still interested in learning more, continue with this segment because you may realize the risks of investing in an addict but you're not standing by false assertions that Gordon is no longer a gifted athlete and wide receiver.

The idea that Gordon is a shadow of himself is only true if you look at box scores for a season and subscriber to Flat Earther Illustrated rather than systematically study his game on film. Pete Carroll wants Gordon in Seattle long-term, he's convinced from watching practice that Gordon remains a special talent.

He also knew Gordon's knee had been an issue with the Patriots this year. And if you read the literature above, you know that, statistically, a healthy Gordon was in the realm of Randy Moss in several significant categories during his 2018 tenure in New England.

Seattle's implementation of Gordon into the offense has been slow. Giving Gordon time to recover from his knee issue is one factor.

Another is the balance of the offense as a whole. Seattle believes in giving talents playing time that have earned it and placing a new player on the field on an every-down basis in the middle of a season where the division is a tightly-contested affair is more disruptive to the offense than their opponents.

Look at the lack of rapport between Baker Mayfield and Odell Beckham. Yes, the Gordon acclimated quickly to the Patriots but the Patriots also lacked a viable outside threat on the depth chart and sported an elite tight end and elite slot receiver to create mismatches.

It's likely that Seattle is taking its time with Gordon and only placing him into high-leverage game situations so he can get healthy and gain rapport with Russell Wilson on a more relaxed pace that doesn't include on-field mistakes that hurt the team. A potential fringe benefit of this might be the opportunity to unleash a fresh and prepared Gordon during the playoffs and do so without any tape for opponents to study on Seattle's tendencies for using him.

This final point may sound like it is getting a bit into Flat Earther territory but it is a possibility. What is easy to see is that Gordon can still outrun corners and safeties and make elite plays on the football.

This is not a UFO sighting. I know it appears as such but independent experts assure us that this clip has not been altered. Gordon may not be a fantasy option for you in 2019 but I'd take a chance on him in fantasy playoff football next month. If he stays in Seattle long-term, I'm taking a chance on him again because the ADP will likely remain low enough to merit the risk.

The phone rings at the RSP offices once again and immediately goes to voice mail...

"You have reached the last remaining chapter of the Josh Gordon Is Good Society (JGIGS), operations are suspended indefinitely.

10. FRESH FISH: Week 15

Fantasy football is a cruel place. We're always searching for that weakest link. While we don't want anyone facing the wrath of Hadley, we'd love nothing more than having our players face an opponent whose game has come unglued on the field.

In the spirit of "The Shawshank Redemption," I provide my weekly shortlist of players and/or units that could have you chanting "fresh fish" when your roster draws the match-up.

Special of the Week: The NFL Rules Committee

The Calvin Johnson Rule is the most ridiculous rule change that was perpetuated in the NFL. It took a pretty simple concept and bogged it down to the point that even the uninitiated to football have a better sense of what a catch is than the league that has popularized the sport. Although this play didn't cost Atlanta the ballgame, Austin Hooper's "non-catch" and Dean Blandino's explanation for judging the merits of it is another in a long line of examples why this rule belongs in a fiery dumpster.

I get the letter of the rule and why Hooper technically didn't catch the ball according to it but why argue the point on these idiotic merits in the first place? If the NBA let an equivalent rule perpetuate its game in a similar manner it would look like this...

During a regular-season game, a player would have made a shot that, at first, clanged off the rim before going through the net. Some brain-addled official—surely distracted by his full-time job as a CFO defrauding millions of customers that now have him shopping for lawyers who would do the most to bail him out at the lowest cost—would have nullified the field goal. His attempt to justify it had the same rationale that only politicians would buy after he donated millions to their re-elections to insure there would be no Congressional investigation into his company.

In order for the NFL-thinking NBA (in this bizarro universe) to justify that inmates don't run the jail (not my thinking, Bob McNair's...), the NBA would double-down on the call by creating a new rule that would distort what is and what isn't a valid basket beyond all conventional reality.

The public would call it the Larry Bird Rule because, in order for this fictional NBA scenario to model after the absurd reality of the NFL, the player involved would have to be an all-time great known for his prowess at the very thing this rule is ruining.

Other fish? Forget it, the NFL is the biggest fish in the tank.

11. The 2020 Rookie Scouting Portfolio

Many of you know me as a fantasy football writer. I am also an independent scout of NFL talent at the skill positions. My annual draft package, the Rookie Scouting Portfolio (RSP), that covers at least 150 of these quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends for the upcoming draft class is available for pre-order at a discount price through December 27.

Entering its 15th year of publication, the RSP service includes:

  • An in-depth pre-draft guide that is known for its long shelf-life (3-5 years) of value that's available for download every April 1.
  • A post-draft guide that delivers analysis, depth chart analysis, player-team fit, updated rankings of three rookie classes (current and two years prior), and a cheat sheet that factors my RSP rankings with ADP to give you the sweet spots for rookie draft value.
  • A monthly email newsletter between June and December that includes previews of player evaluations for future classes, updates on current rookies and young NFL prospects, and two more rankings updates.

Go here to learn more about RSP and what fantasy players, football writers, and people involved with the sport have to say about it. Scroll to the end of the page and take the video tours of each publication.

Thanks again for all of your feedback with this column. This is the last one of the 2019 season.

For those of you still alive in your leagues, good luck next week, and may your bold calls come true.

Photos provided by USA TODAY Sports
Tags Analysis Josh Allen Kyle Allen Kalen Ballage Odell Beckham Jr Blake Bortles Miles Boykin Tom Brady Matt Breida Teddy Bridgewater A.J. Brown Marquise Brown DeForest Buckner Calais Campbell Daniel Carlson Derek Carr Tevin Coleman Brandin Cooks Andy Dalton Aaron Donald Kenyan Drake Ross Dwelley Chase Edmonds Will Fuller V Josh Gordon Tyreek Hill Austin Hooper DeAndre Hopkins Lamar Jackson Josh Jacobs Grady Jarrett David Johnson Deion Jones Travis Kelce Patrick Mahomes II Baker Mayfield Terry McLaurin Raheem Mostert Yannick Ngakoue Joe Schobert Kenny Stills Darwin Thompson Mitch Trubisky Sammy Watkins Deshaun Watson Russell Wilson

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