For the uninitiated, playing daily games on DraftKings can be an enjoyable experience, but equally sobering is the fact that season-long knowledge does not always translate to success in the daily space. Footballguys will bring you a series of value- and strategic-based selections from a number of seasoned daily veterans throughout the NFL season. Herein is another edition of “Tipandpick’s Tips and Picks,” where we will examine the salaries of players at each position on DraftKings and make value-based recommendations for both your cash games and tournaments.
Below you will find a list of recommended players for both formats. GPP players generally have high-upside, but are too risky for cash games; cash game players are consistent with high fantasy floors. In some instances, the value for a player is so strong, he may fall into both categories…let’s have a look.
TIPS...
In order to help you build winning rosters, let's walk through some of the observations that I have made while doing my research for DraftKings this week. As you build out your lineups on DraftKings, try to consider the following commentary, which revolves around game strategy and how we will want to take advantage of what the masses are doing when they construct their own lineups.
GAME SELECTION: GPPs. [Adapted from 2019 Tips and Picks, Conference Championship] If you are a regular reader of this column or follow me on Twitter, you are well aware that I am a big advocate of playing DFS on the largest slate possible. A lesser number of games increases overlap because there are not enough player choices for lesser-skilled players to make mistakes. As a result, cash games are almost unwinnable over the long-term and I will never play (or advocate you playing) cash games on two-game slates. That leaves GPPs and alternative game formats (i.e., "Showdown Captain," and "Tiers"). Typically, I would advise you not to play DFS on a two-game slate for the same reasons I already explained for avoiding cash games; however, the NFL playoffs are a special time of year and I make an exception for Divisional Championship weekend because it is the last day of (NFL) DFS until next September. My advice for this weekend is to find single-entry games on DraftKings by filtering on the "tournaments" tab on the left side of the homepage and subsequently entering "single" into the search bar (just above the 'tournaments' tab); from there, you should be able to choose from approximately nine different single-entry tournaments, ranging from a $1 buy-in up to $1,500. By focusing on single-entry tournaments, you are avoiding competing against other DFS players who cast a wider net by playing anywhere from 20 to 150 entries in the same tournament; on a two-game slate, it becomes prohibitively difficult to compete against those mass multi-entry players, which is what makes playing single-entry tournaments so attractive. From there, build your roster with the knowledge that you will need to hit on every player and that there will likely be a low-owned (< 15% in this case) player who scores and will be needed to win. Read below ("Picks" Section) to see who I will be targeting in these types of games.
GAME SELECTION: SHOWDOWN CONTESTS. By now, you are likely aware of DraftKings' so-called 'Showdown: Captain Mode' contest format that has caught fire for single-games. The appeal of this format is that even the most casual of player can quickly put together a roster and have stake in the game (just ask my better half). If you are not already familiar with this style of contest, here is a quick summary: All players are chosen from a single game (including kickers and defenses) and one of those players is your "Captain," who costs 1.5-times as much as he would if you rostered him in a non-Captain slot; the reward for paying 1.5-times as much for this player is that he returns 1.5-times his true fantasy output (assuming he were otherwise in a non-Captain slot). Just like a standard contest, you start with a $50K salary cap and draft the best roster possible. If you want to play cash games this weekend, my recommendation is that you do it in this kind of contest because I think that there is still a slight edge to be had for those who build their rosters intelligently. For cash games, you will want to do everything possible to get both quarterbacks into your lineup and slot in players around them that you think have solid scoring floors. Because so many casual players enter these contests, building your rosters this way might yield the best edge possible on a short two-game slate. For playing this style of contest in tournament formats, you need to script the game in your head and build your roster accordingly, while focusing on trying to identify that one cheap sleeper who has the ability to surprise with a touchdown--my favorites for each team this weekend are as follows: Titans--Anthony Firkser, $600...Chiefs--Mecole Hardman, $3.8K...Packers--Geronimo Allison, $2.8K...49ers--Matt Breida, $1.8K. There are two large $10 buy-in contests this week; for the early game, the first-place payout is $100K and the late game has a considerable $200K first-place prize.
...AND PICKS
Let's take a deeper look into some of the players who I will be targeting for my cash game and tournament rosters this weekend. A short summary follows each respective table to fill in the gaps that led to the respective recommendations; that text represents only an overview of the methodology and rationale that goes into each recommendation.
QUARTERBACKS
The early game features a dichotomy of offenses. The Chiefs passed the ball on 62% of their offensive snaps this season, 7th highest overall and highest amongst teams with a winning record. Meanwhile, the Titans passed the ball on only 51% of their offensive plays, trailing only San Francisco and Baltimore in commitment to the running game. Based on those numbers, you might ignore Ryan Tannehill this weekend and go heavy on Patrick Mahomes II...but not so fast. You have to envision how this game plays out and build your lineups accordingly. Vegas is projecting the Chiefs to win this game 30-23, which implies that both quarterbacks are viable--Mahomes because of the Chiefs' lofty implied team total and Tannehill because of the Titans' trailing gamescript. When these teams met in Week #10, Mahomes blasted the Titans secondary for 446 passing yards and 3 touchdowns in a losing effort in Nashville, an observation that supports Mahomes' ability and upside in this matchup. That said, I am banking on this game going under the Vegas total because I suspect Andy Reid will commit to the run in an effort to maximize time of possession; doing so will keep his defense as fresh as possible while they try to stop the white-hot Derrick Henry, which we know is how Mike Vrabel will attack Kansas City. With nearly half of all rosters featuring Patrick Mahomes II and Vrabel's continued commitment to the run, it might make sense to avoid these quarterbacks and roll with either Jimmy Garoppolo or Aaron Rodgers in the late game.
As for the game in San Francisco, it is difficult to get excited about Jimmy Garoppolo coming off a game that did not see him throw the ball 20 times (11/19 for 131 passing yards), but the Niners never trailed Minnesota and Jimmy G's involvement was accordingly limited. On a baseline points per dollar basis, Garoppolo is our David Dodds' highest-ranked quarterback on DraftKings, but one has to question Garoppolo's upside against a Packers secondary that allowed the 5th-least fantasy points per game to his position this season. So what about Aaron Rodgers? Priced at $6.1K, he is projected to be the least popular quarterback on this short slate, but he will need to deliver fantasy upside if the Packers are to have a fighting chance against the 49ers' stout defense.
VERDICT: Of the four quarterback options, Aaron Rodgers is my favorite GPP option due to his low ownership, reasonable salary, pass-heavy gamescript, and predictable stacking partner (Davante Adams). Patrick Mahomes II is an acceptable option, but you will need to differentiate your lineups at another position if he lands in ~ 50% of rosters, so keep that in mind if you build around his superior skill set. I'm largely fading Tannehill and Garropolo because of their teams' respective commitment to the run and resultant limited upside.
RUNNING BACKS
Falling behind 24-0 to the Texans, the Chiefs looked to Patrick Mahomes II to close the gap and fed Damien Williams on only 12 out of 56 offensive plays (21.4%) last week. Despite his limited action, Williams found paydirt on three different occasions and was the only Chiefs running back to touch the ball against Houston. This week, we should expect to see Williams more heavily involved against the Titans, who allowed him to rack up 109 all-purpose yards on 24 touches back in Week #10. As for Derrick Henry, he cannot be ignored after carrying the ball 64 times for 377 yards over the past pair of games. Henry is the Titans offense at this point in the season and the sole reason that they have been able to go into Foxborough and Baltimore on back-to-back weekends to upset the heavily favored Patriots and Ravens. When these teams met earlier this season, Henry rolled over this 29th-ranked DVOA rush defense for 188 yards on only 24 carries--a repeat performance is certainly not outside of the realm of possibilities at Arrowhead on Sunday.
In the late game, Aaron Jones is a tough sell against the Niners, who put the brakes on Dalvin Cook last week, limiting him to 18 rushing yards on only 9 carries. Only the New England Patriots allowed fewer fantasy points per game to the running back position this season, which makes rostering Jones a risky proposition, particularly as a 7-point road underdog. The 49ers backfield, however, is intriguing due to Kyle Shanahan's rush-heavy scheme (2nd-highest run rate in NFL) against the league's 8th-friendliest defense against running backs. Coming off a game that saw Tevin Coleman out-touch Raheem Mostert 22 to 12, the question is: "Which San Francisco running back do I target?" The answer is not clear, but Shanahan offered a rationale for Coleman's rise from the ashes last week--Mostert was experiencing cramps early in the game and Coleman was brought in to spell him while trainers dealt with the cramps, but Coleman's early success merited continued usage thereafter. Coming off that big week, Coleman is priced up at $5.7K versus only $4.3K for Mostert, which makes Mostert the value grab and sharper overall play at the position.
VERDICT: This is the safest non-quarterback position this week and should likely occupy your flex position, as well. Derrick Henry and Damien Williams top the list with Raheem Mostert coming in shortly thereafter. Limit your exposure to Aaron Jones (and/or Jamaal Williams) due to the matchup and poor implied gamescript.
WIDE RECEIVERS
If you decide to roster Patrick Mahomes II, Tyreek Hill is firmly in play as a high-upside wide receiver option against the league's 21st-ranked DVOA pass defense. Adoree Jackson is equipped with 4.42 40-yard dash speed to try to keep pace with Hill, but we cannot ignore the fact that Hill tagged this same secondary for a 11/157/1 stat line back in Week #10. The Chiefs' ancillary wide receivers do not hold much value, largely because Travis Kelce acts as the WR2 in this offense, but Sammy Watkins ($4.6K) is a GPP dart throw despite being targeted only four times over the Chiefs' previous two games. One possible GPP differentiator this week is Mecole Hardman ($3.8K), who could see additional snaps in the Chiefs offense after Demarcus Robinson has dropped four out of six targets that came his way over the past two games. As for the Titans, A.J. Brown is the obvious WR1 for Tennessee, but it is difficult to get excited about paying $5.2K for a receiver that has a grand total of four targets across the Titans' two playoff games. After Brown, the falloff is steep with Corey Davis (three targets in two playoff games) against the Chiefs, who were the 2nd-stingiest defense against wide receivers in the league this season.
In the Bay area, the Packers continue to feature Davante Adams and dare opposing defenses to slow him down--it has not worked well, as evidenced by Adams' continued production across the latter half of the season. Since returning from injury in Week #9, Adams has 7 or more catches and/or a touchdown in all-but-one game over that span of time. He is a lock-and-load option at an otherwise thin position despite being forced to run < 50% of his snaps across from Richard Sherman. The Packers' secondary receivers are all suboptimal options: Allen Lazard has been playing the role of WR2 of late, but he was injured in last week's game against the Seahawks and will face the aforementioned Sherman, who outclasses him in every way. Geronimo Allison is a sneaky GPP option who could go overlooked by the masses because of his recent lack of productivity, but he should avoid Sherman altogether out of the slot and will have a 6-inch size advantage over his coverage cornerback, KWaun Williams, making him an excellent redzone option for Aaron Rodgers. For San Francisco, only Deebo Samuel and Emmanuel Sanders are reasonable volume-based options because Kendrick Bourne's recent usage (~ 25% of offensive snaps in 49ers' previous 2 games) makes his $4.2K price tag difficult to justify. Given Coach Shanahan's propensity to run the ball as much as possible, both Samuel and Sanders are touchdown-or-bust streamers on a limited slate.
VERDICT: Start with Davante Adams and build around him. This is where you will want to take a few chances to achieve diversity on a two-game slate. An Aaron Rodgers-Davante Adams-Geronimo Allison double-stack (with a Raheem Mostert 'run back') is certainly in play. Tyreek Hill brings more upside to your roster than any other wide receiver this weekend, but you can bet that Patrick Mahomes II-to-Hill stacks will be found in at least 1/3 of all lineups, which means that you will need to go off the board to differentiate yourself from the masses with that decision.
TIGHT ENDS
Coming off a dominant 3-touchdown performance where he was often double-teamed, Travis Kelce is going to be the chalk option at the tight end position this Sunday. The Titans allow the 6th-most fantasy points per game to the position and yielded a 7/75/1 stat line when these same teams met in Nashville back in Week #10. Just behind Kelce in the ownership rankings will be George Kittle ($5.8K), who comes in at a significant $1.3K discount from the Chiefs' tight end. Kittle was quiet last week against the Vikings, but the Niners' dominance of Minnesota resulted in minimal opportunity for all of the San Francisco receivers. The matchup against Green Bay is nondescript, but we can refer back to Week #12 when these teams faced one another and Kittle compiled a hefty 6/129/1 stat line for his efforts; he remains viable for all formats despite the 49ers' run-heavy ways. For tournament purposes, there is intrigue in rostering a Titans tight end against the league's 5th-friendliest defense to the position, but predicting if that tight end is named Jonnu Smith or Anthony Firkser is about as random as picking numbers on a roulette table since mid-November. Smith has five targets in the playoffs versus only three for Firkser, but he is priced 40% higher than Firkser and will be owned on 4x as many lineups, which makes the decision a bit more difficult. The last option is Jimmy Graham, who has not scored since October and has only one redzone target since that lone touchdown.
VERDICT: Travis Kelce is the best player with the best matchup, but he will be a popular option and is pricey at $7.1K. If you cannot afford Kelce, the recommendation is to save salary and go contrarian with a Titans tight end against a susceptible defense.
TEAM DEFENSES
As is typically the case at this point in the season, there is not much to like at the team defense position because quarterback play is generally solid and successful offenses tend to minimize turnovers. Vegas would have us believe that the 49ers are the best defensive option, given that the Packers have the only implied team total below 20 points. Our ownership projections align with that notion, as over half of tournament rosters will have the Niners in their team defense slot. The remaining three defenses are middle-of-the-road: For DVOA rankings, the Chiefs, Packers, and Titans are 15th, 16th, and 17th, respectively.
VERDICT: If you are making a single lineup, the recommendation is to fade the massive ownership of the 49ers at a highly variable roster position. Instead, slot in the Chiefs as a placeholder at the top of your lineup build; if you need salary on the back-end of your build, drop down to the 'non-49er' defense that you can afford to make things fit.
