NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge will come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate's top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

The advice in this article pertains predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

Game Scripting & Roster Construction

Thursday night's matchup features the 8-7 Seahawks traveling to Chicago to face the Bears, who have lost nine straight games. Chicago enters as slight home underdogs against Seattle, with oddsmakers projecting a 23-19 victory for the Seahawks. To be fair, over half of the Bears' losses this season have been by a touchdown or less. While they haven't won on the road, they are 4-4 at home.

My take on this game? One team is fighting to keep its playoff hopes alive, while the other is playing for pride. In these situations, I always give the edge to the team looking to extend its season.

Given the Bears' poor form and the Seahawks' playoff motivation, this line feels more conservative than expected—it arguably should be closer to a touchdown. As such, optimal roster construction should heavily favor Seattle players this week. Whether you choose a 4-2 or 5-1 player distribution depends on your outlook for the game, but the emphasis should remain on building around Seattle's key contributors and then adding a few high-upside options from the Bears to round out your lineup.

Injury Roundup

The Bears' secondary is dealing with injuries heading into this matchup, as both Elijah Hicks and Tarvarius Moore have been ruled out. However, their absences are unlikely to impact the game significantly—Moore hasn't played a snap this season, and Hicks' involvement has been minimal since Week 11. On the offensive side, Travis Homer is also inactive, strengthening Roschon Johnson's role as the Bears' backup running back. In games without Homer this season, Johnson has served as the RB2 and brings intriguing upside in a late-season game where the Bears could conceivably evaluate signed talent heading into the offseason.

For Seattle, three players will be sidelined on Thursday: tight end Brady Russell (foot), safety K'Von Wallace (ankle), and running back Ken Walker III (ankle). Of this group, only Walker's absence carries significant weight for Showdown contests. Zach Charbonnet steps into a lead role, with Kenny McIntosh as his backup, against a Bears defense that ranks as one of the most generous to opposing running backs (4th most fantasy points allowed to the position).

Captain Considerations

1. Zach Charbonnet
2. Jaxon Smith-Njigba
3. Caleb Williams

Bears Showdown Players

Quarterback

Caleb Williams (CPT or FLEX)

The #1 pick in this year's draft, Caleb Williams, is steadily rounding into form as the season winds down. Since mid-November, Williams has thrown 10 touchdowns without a single interception over 180 passing attempts. During that 5-game stretch, he has surpassed 300 passing yards twice, showcasing his growing confidence and consistency.

Thursday's matchup against the Seahawks is middle-of-the-road, as Seattle has allowed an average of 16.6 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, ranking 16th among NFL defenses. With the Bears spreading the ball among their offensive skill players, Williams remains the focal point of the offense and is a strong option worth paying up for in DFS contests. He offers a dependable 15-point fantasy floor with the potential to exceed 25 points, making him a key piece for Showdown lineups.

Running Backs

D'Andre Swift (FLEX...maybe)

In last week's blowout loss to the Lions, D'Andre Swift's role in the offense diminished significantly, marking the first time he finished with single-digit carries this season. His usage should bounce back against the Seahawks, though Seattle's improved rushing defense poses a challenge. Since Week 9, the Seahawks rank in the top ten for fewest fantasy points allowed to running backs and have surrendered just one rushing touchdown over that span. At $7.6K, Swift is reasonably priced, but his limited upside in this matchup—having surpassed 100 rushing yards only once this season—makes him a less exciting option for Showdown lineups.

Wide Receivers

Keenan Allen (FLEX)
DJ Moore (FLEX)
Rome Odunze (FLEX)

All three Bears receivers are worth considering for DFS purposes, as each has been targeted at least five times in every game over the past month. Keenan Allen and DJ Moore are the primary options in this offense, but Rome Odunze maintains a solid ~20% target share. Of the trio, I favor Moore this week, as he's overdue for positive scoring regression after going nearly a month without a touchdown. Moore also sees occasional rushing attempts in this offense, adding another layer of appeal for Showdown lineups.

That said, Allen and Odunze remain viable options, as both have the potential to deliver fantasy-worthy performances against Seattle's inconsistent secondary. However, given my projected game script for Thursday night, I prefer focusing on Caleb Williams with just one Bears receiver in lineups to allow room for Seahawks players, who should dominate fantasy production in this contest.

Tight Ends

Cole Kmet (FLEX...maybe)

If you're looking for a Bears receiver under $7K, Cole Kmet is your only reasonable option. However, Kmet comes with significant risk, having posted double-digit fantasy points just once since Chicago's Week 7 bye and being held scoreless twice during that span. At $4.4K, he provides some salary relief, but if cost is a deciding factor, I prefer Roschon Johnson at a lower price (see below) for more reliable value.

Under the Radar

Roschon Johnson (FLEX)

Returning from an injury that sidelined him for nearly a month, Roschon Johnson logged 27% of the Bears' offensive snaps last week against the Lions. Before his injury, Johnson consistently played 35-45% of offensive snaps, a number he's likely to approach again on Thursday in his second game back. While Johnson isn't a high-upside option, his potential to garner 5-8 touches out of the backfield at just $2.6K makes him a viable value play for Showdown contests. His low salary provides the flexibility to spend up on more reliable, higher-priced players elsewhere in your lineups.

Seahawks Showdown Players

Quarterback

Geno Smith (FLEX)

Casual NFL fans might be surprised to learn that Geno Smith ranks third in the league in passing yards this season, trailing only Joe Burrow and Jared Goff. Smith enters Thursday night's game with a career-high 70% completion rate and is on the verge of surpassing 4,000 passing yards for the first time, with two games still to play. However, alongside these impressive numbers, Smith has thrown 15 interceptions this season—second only to the recently benched Kirk Cousins. While turnovers hurt football teams, they often benefit fantasy production by creating opportunities for quarterbacks to rack up points during comeback attempts.

Thursday's matchup against the Bears presents challenges. Chicago boasts the league's second-stingiest defense against opposing quarterbacks and ranks in the top ten for takeaways per game, making it difficult to justify paying Smith's $9.4K salary. With the likelihood of a run-heavy game script for Seattle (see the Zach Charbonnet writeup below), I'm comfortable passing on Smith if his salary creates too much opportunity cost. That said, if you can fit him into your lineup without sacrificing value elsewhere, Smith remains a reasonable option, given his high-volume passing potential.

Running Backs

Zach Charbonnet (CPT or FLEX)

Chicago has struggled mightily against the run this season, allowing the fourth-most DraftKings points to opposing running backs. Over the past six weeks, they've given up 15+ fantasy points to running backs in every game. These trends set up well for Zach Charbonnet, who is expected to be the lead back with Ken Walker III sidelined due to an ankle injury suffered last week against the Vikings.

When given opportunities this season, Charbonnet has thrived, averaging nearly 25 DraftKings points per game in his four starts. While Kenny McIntosh may cut into some of his workload, Charbonnet's matchup and lead role make him a must-play for Showdown contests on Thursday night.

Wide Receivers

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (CPT or FLEX)
DK Metcalf (FLEX)
Tyler Lockett (FLEX...maybe)

Jaxon Smith-Njigba has firmly established himself as the alpha in the Seahawks' receiving corps. The second-year standout enters Thursday night with eight consecutive games of 70+ receiving yards and is averaging around 20 DraftKings points per game since Seattle's Week 10 bye. While Chicago has been stingy against wide receivers in 2024, allowing just 30.2 fantasy points per game to the position (6th best in the league), Smith-Njigba's emergence as a top-tier, matchup-proof receiver makes him a strong candidate for Captain consideration in Showdown contests.

Behind Smith-Njigba, DK Metcalf is the clear secondary option. Metcalf is closing in on his third consecutive 1,000-yard season and could reach that milestone on Thursday night. He offers big-play potential, but his lack of consistent upside is notable—he hasn't surpassed 100 receiving yards in a game since Week 4.

At 32 years old, Tyler Lockett has struggled to remain a meaningful fantasy option. Despite significant playing time, he has produced just ~10 total fantasy points over the past month. At his $3.2K salary, Lockett is best avoided for Showdown contests.

Tight End

Noah Fant (FLEX...maybe)

Kickers and Defenses

Both kickers for Thursday night's game, Jason Myers and Cairo Santos, are reliable but unspectacular options for Showdown contests. Each has converted approximately 85% of their field goal attempts this season, with extra point success rates just over 90% in 2024. Between the two, I prefer Myers for two reasons: (1) Seattle's red-zone efficiency (55%) ranks in the bottom half of the league, compared to Chicago's 6th-ranked efficiency at 63%, and (2) Seattle is expected to lead late in the game, increasing Myers' chances of being called upon in key 4th-down situations in opposing territory.

Both defenses are viable options for DFS contests. Geno Smith has thrown 15 interceptions this season, the second-most in the league behind Kirk Cousins, making Chicago's defense a strong consideration at their $3.8K price point. Seattle's defense, priced at $4.0K, also presents value due to their home-field advantage and a matchup against rookie quarterback Caleb Williams. While Williams has done a solid job limiting turnovers this season, the combination of playing in a hostile environment and potentially needing to pass often if Chicago falls behind could lead to mistakes and turnovers. Both defensive units offer solid upside for Showdown lineups.