2019 Target-Avoid Fantasy Football Wide Receivers

The NFL preseason is in full force and the 2019 fantasy football season is right around the corner. One of the big advantages of Footballguys.com is a large database of staff rankings. This series looks at the difference between the collaborative Footballguys staff rankings and myfantasyleague.com positional ADP (Average Draft Position) at the skill positions. In this edition: wide receivers.

WIDE RECEIVERS TO TARGET

Keenan Allen

• WR9 Ranking
• WR12 ADP
• Why: Allen has finished WR3 and WR13 the past two season on nearly 300 targets. Tyrell Williams is gone and the lone reason to ponder any volume decline is Hunter Henry returning from injury. Allen is a sturdy 2019 play entrenched in a high-level passing game and an affordable WR1 or optimal WR2.

D.J. Moore

• WR23 Ranking
• WR28 ADP
• Why: Moore's historical outlook is top-notch with his pedigree, metric profile, and Year 1 performance. Many comps zoom up to WR1 level fantasy production in Year 2, or at the latest, Year 3. Moore has an optimized offense under Norv Turner and lone competition for targets hybrid player Curtis Samuel and returning-from-injury Greg Olsen.

Sammy Watkins

• WR32 Ranking
• WR39 ADP
• Why: The go-to line for Watkins is 'if we have seen his fantasy best already, he will go down as one of the biggest draft pedigree and metric disappointments in recent memory.' Watkins returns to the same elite Chiefs offense with Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce drawing attention away. Watkins' 16-game pace was a modest 64-830 last season, missing six games. Watkins is an ideal upside WR3/4 on fantasy depth charts with quality weekly upside (6-of-10 games last year with 60+ yards or a touchdown).

DeSean Jackson

• WR44 Ranking
• WR53 ADP
• Why: Jackson is a best-ball special, but also in play for depth spots in traditional formats. No Eagles receiver collected 100+ targets last season and Jackson's connection with Carson Wentz has been lauded during training camp. With no Golden Tate, Nelson Agholor downshifting into a WR3 role, and J.J. Arcega-Whiteside a developing Day 2 rookie, Jackson will challenge Alshon Jeffery for WR1 targets on the depth chart more than sinking to WR3/4.

WIDE RECEIVERS TO AVOID

Antonio Brown

• WR13 Ranking
• WR9 ADP
• Why: Brown is working through his feet recovery, siphoning valuable chemistry-building time with Derek Carr. After 160+ quality targets in Pittsburgh the past two seasons, Brown is being drafted as a top-10 receiver at the time of publication despite the team change, offensive downturn, and minimal probability accounted for possible age curve decline for his upcoming 31-year-old season. Brown is ahead of both Vikings receivers, Keenan Allen, and T.Y. Hilton of note in positional ADP.

A.J. Green

• WR28 Ranking
• WR21 ADP
• Why: Green will miss regular-season games by post-ankle surgery reporting, but the range is still up in the air. Green is still in the WR2 zone of ADP, but Footballguys is more skeptical on the spectrum of outcomes for a 31-year-old who has missed significant time in 2016, 2018, and now starting 2019 on the shelf.

Dante Pettis

• WR38 Ranking
• WR32 ADP
• Why: Pettis has oscillated between pending breakout star and struggling Year 2 receiver on an open depth chart in the news this offseason. Pettis is a weak-at-best metric prospect historically where Deebo Samuel is a better prospect on paper on the same roster. George Kittle is the default WR1 in the passing game and Marquise Goodwin is a forgotten name to consider.

Geronimo Allison

• WR57 Ranking
• WR41 ADP
• Why: Allison is considered the favorite for the Packers' WR2 by ADP, but Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Equanimeous St-Brown, and even Jake Kumerow are crowded together in this competition for WR2/3 snaps and a shot to evolve into a quality fantasy performer. Allison is coming off an injury (five games played in 2018) and lacks the physical upside potential of Valdes-Scantling and St. Brown. Also, Kumerow, for the second training camp in a row, has logged a number of positive reviews.

NKeal Harry

• WR68 Ranking
• WR46 ADP
• Why: Harry has been up-and-down in training camp and rookies are historically slow starters for fantasy purposes and Julian Edelman projects as the lead receiver for the becoming-run-centric Patriots offense. Harry is in the WR4 zone of ADP and notably in the same range or ahead of Curtis Samuel, Donte Moncrief, James Washington, Michael Gallup, and Jamison Crowder.

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