Drafting from the end position in twelve-team PPR or half-point PPR leagues creates some interesting roster construction dilemmas this season. While wide receiver is plentiful and can potentially differentiate you from your opponents, the following rounds are full of decision points that will either catapult or doom the first leg of your fantasy season – the draft.
Numerous drafters begin with two great wide receivers only to undermine the start with ill-conceived roster construction moves. Most of these involve the approach to addressing the running back position. Other drafters, knowing the rough seas ahead, often opt out of the two wide receiver start by taking a runner either in the first or second round. While this is a viable strategy, starting with two wide receivers when conditions are optimal is still preferential.
If you are drafting in the late position, don’t fret, you have an opportunity to build a competitive team. To do this, you must prepare for the decisions you will be facing. Thinking multiple steps ahead of your opponents and preparing for chaos will keep you level headed and adaptable – both keys to squeezing the most out of this draft position in 2019.
Round 1 and Round 2 – Optimal Wide Receiver Pairs
No Brainers: DeAndre Hopkins, Davante Adams, Odell Beckham, Julio Jones, Tyreek Hill
Any combination of these five players typically lends itself to taking back to back wide receivers with the first two picks.
Optional: Michael Thomas, JuJu Smith-Schuster
Michael Thomas and JuJu Smith-Schuster will both be target hogs, but each lacks the game-breaking upside of the no brainer group. In PPR leagues, Nick Chubb, Todd Gurley, James Conner, and Dalvin Cook are all in play. In half-point PPR leagues, these runners should be prioritized ahead of the optional receivers as the scales tip back in favor of position scarcity of running back due to less upside for Thomas and Smith-Schuster in the scoring system.
Hypothetical Selections: Odell Beckham and Tyreek Hill
Round 3 and Round 4 – Setting the Table
This spot creates the first decision point that will have a cascading impact on the rest of the draft. If you set the table correctly here, a nice fulfilling meal is soon to follow. If you set the table incorrectly here, you are likely to be scrambling to catch all of your fine china as the table cloth is ripped out from underneath you in ensuing rounds.
With these two picks, you still have the flexibility to take another wide receiver or even a stud tight end or Patrick Mahomes II if that is your thing. However, you must come away with one of these runners.
Round 3 No Brainers: Devonta Freeman, Leonard Fournette
These two running backs are guaranteed the majority of work for their teams. Freeman is the preference due to higher expectations for the offense and his ability as a pass-catcher. You could consider receivers like Amari Cooper, Adam Thielen, and Keenan Allen if they slide to here, but these two runners offer similar value in points at the more scarce position.
Round 3 Optional: Marlon Mack, Aaron Jones, Kerryon Johnson
These three runners have a wider range of outcomes based on questions about their roles in their offenses. However, each has a decent floor plus significant headroom in its range of outcomes. These are players I prioritize taking, but I am comfortable with taking on some risk. If you aren’t as comfortable with variability in outcomes lean back into the wide receivers listed above or one of the big three tight ends if still available. They each offer a higher floor than these runners.
Targeting Patrick Mahomes II in this range is not a strategy I recommend, but if you want him (which many do after selecting Hill in the second), this is where you will have to pull the trigger.
Round 4 Running Back Targets: Chris Carson, Josh Jacobs, Sony Michel
If you went with a position other than running back in Round 3, picking one of these players is a must. Carson is your get out of jail free card and is a great RB1 candidate for upside down or zero running back teams. Some will consider this a reach on Carson, but it is the smart thing to do. This selection stabilizes the foundation of your running back unit by giving you a dependable commodity. This selection means you have a few picks to find your RB2 over the next several rounds.
Jacobs and Michel aren’t as appealing as Carson, but you need a stabilizing force here. If you pass on these players, you will be trying to figure out who to start at both running back positions every week until one of your upside guys from later hits. Don’t put yourself in that position. By the time reinforcements arrive you are very likely a 1-3 team.
Derrick Henry is not on this list due to his extreme game-script dependency and lack of passing targets. Taking on that type of variance with this build isn’t optimal.
If you took a runner in Round 3, these players are all still in play, but you can play the value game in this round if something you love falls. Prioritizing Carson is still smart unless you get a value like Diggs, Godwin or one of the top three tight ends fall back to you.
Hypothetical Selections: Amari Cooper and Chris Carson
Roster So Far:
- QB – Empty
- RB1 – Chris Carson
- RB2 – Empty
- WR1 – Odell Beckham
- WR2 – Tyreek Hill
- WR3 – Amari Cooper
- TE – Empty
- Flex – Empty
Round 5 and Round 6 – Solidifying the Running Backs
Round Five and Six RB2/RB3 Targets: Tevin Coleman, Sony Michel, Austin Ekeler, Miles Sanders
Any two of these backs will do, but Coleman and Michel aren’t reaching the late fifth round as often due to climbing ADPs. If neither of these backs is there, take an aggressive approach here by taking Miles Sanders in the fifth and come back with Ekeler in the sixth.
Sanders won’t likely be your Week 1 starter, but he provides potential league winning upside should he take hold of the majority of the Eagles backfield at some point. Sanders isn’t as good of a runner as many believe, but behind this offensive line on an offense that will score a lot, there is plenty to like.
You likely won’t want to start Sanders come Week 1. Enter Austin Ekeler. Until Melvin Gordon returns (if he returns), Ekeler will be a solid RB2 who will also have RB1 weeks in PPR and half-point PPR formats. If for some reason Gordon doesn’t return this is a steal at ADP. Worst case, Gordon does return and Ekeler still has some flex value if needed.
Round 7 and Round 8 – Building on Strength
These two rounds are typically full of wide receiver value. Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Curtis Samuel, Dede Westbrook, Dante Pettis, and Corey Davis are all in play. Grabbing two of these players is maximizing value while also providing flex options and refortifying your position of strength – the wide receivers.
If Vance McDonald slides, selecting tight end also becomes an option with one of these picks. Resist the urge to address tight end and quarterback here.
Hypothetical Selections: Curtis Samuel and Corey Davis
Roster So Far:
- QB – Empty
- RB1 – Chris Carson
- RB2 – Austin Ekeler / Miles Sanders
- WR1 – Odell Beckham
- WR2 – Tyreek Hill
- WR3 – Amari Cooper
- TE – Empty
- Flex – Curtis Samuel / Corey Davis
Round 9 and Round 10 – Reading The Room
The ninth round pick can often present one last group of players sliding too far. Dede Westbrook, Darrell Henderson, and Josh Gordon are players I sometimes see floating around in this round. If that is the case pounce on the value.
If no value plays are screaming at you, this is a great round to grab one more floor runner in Duke Johnson Jr. He should be a seventh or eighth-round pick in this offense. If Johnson is gone consider another floor player such as Peyton Barber or Jordan Howard to provide backup in case, Melvin Gordon returns sooner rather than later. These runners provide you with an extra hedge should Miles Sanders also stumble out of the gate.
Now is time to look at the remaining tight ends and quarterbacks in your tiers versus how many teams already have taken their starters. Based on how you read this situation and the quality of players available at the position will determine what you do.
In leagues that start more receivers or flex positions, likely, one of Carson Wentz or Cam Newton (keep an eye on foot injury from his Preseason Week 3 game) will be available. In leagues with fewer skill starters Jameis Winston, Ben Roethlisberger, Dak Prescott, and Kirk Cousins will all be there. If Wentz or Newton is available, it is time to pounce. If they are gone but all of the second-tier names are there, and you feel good about one remaining at your next pick you can pass if you don’t like tight end or any value plays.
At this time, you should also be going through the same exercise with your tight end tiers. If there is a particular one you like, you can pull the trigger here, but waiting another round for Kyle Rudolph is also fine. In Gary Kubiak’s offense, the tight end gets plenty of looks, and with Adam Thielen working outside more, expect Kirk Cousins to find Rudolph often in the middle of the field, especially off of play-action looks.
Hypothetical Selections: Duke Johnson Jr and Jameis Winston
Roster so far:
- QB – Jameis Winston
- RB1 – Chris Carson
- RB2 – Austin Ekeler / Miles Sanders / Duke Johnson Jr
- WR1 – Odell Beckham
- WR2 – Tyreek Hill
- WR3 – Amari Cooper
- TE – Empty
- Flex – Curtis Samuel / Corey Davis
Remaining Rounds – Final Holes and Upside Runners
At this point, your team is well-positioned at receiver, and you have three options for RB2 that strategically mesh well together. Find your tight end and pile on as many upside runners as you can.
To make this strategy work, be okay with rostering only one quarterback in the draft assuming a few things:
- You have a waiver wire run available before week one (in case of injury)
- Some quarterbacks will go undrafted in your league
- Some rostered quarterback will be available after weeks one and two as league mates search for free agency acquisition room
Taking this approach allows you to address tight end and add extra running back depth.
Grabbing Kyle Rudolph is usually a priority in Round 12 unless the possibility is strong that he comes back in 13, but it is a risk. If Rudolph is a miss, Jimmy Graham and Greg Olsen are in play. T.J. Hockenson and Darren Waller offer upside if that is more important than a floor. If rosters are deep, pairing one floor-player and one upside-player is not a bad idea.
Upside Runners to Target
- Alexander Mattison
- Justice Hill
- Tony Pollard
- Matt Breida
- Darwin Thompson
- Damien Harris
- Malcolm Brown
Preferably you want to come away with two players from this tier. Allowing Rudolph to slide by in Round 12 can pay off big if you can land two of these guys in Round 11 and Round 12. Again, you have to read your draft.
Leaving two final roster spots open (assuming 15 roster positions) for a team defense and kicker, here is a reasonable roster construction scenario drafting from late position.
Final Roster:
- QB – Jameis Winston
- RB1 – Chris Carson
- RB2 – Austin Ekeler / Miles Sanders / Duke Johnson Jr / Alexander Mattison / Malcolm Brown
- WR1 – Odell Beckham
- WR2 – Tyreek Hill
- WR3 – Amari Cooper
- TE – Kyle Rudolph
- Flex – Curtis Samuel / Corey Davis
If things fall correctly Malcolm Brown becomes Damien Harris or maybe even Justice Hill.
By strategically thinking through roster construction options at runner to develop complementary attributes such as stabilizing force (Carson), early-season help with upside for more (Ekeler), mid-season league winning upside (Sanders), high-floor depth (Johnson), and late-round upside (Mattison, Brown), it is feasible to build a strong roster after starting the draft with three wide receivers.
This roster is optimized to provide the opportunity for success during all phases of the season. The approach also allows for flexibility to remain value-focused in rounds seven and eight at wide receiver versus reaching for another running back.
Follow @dwainmcfarland