A foundational component to projecting NFL offensive production is determining how many plays a team is likely to run and how often they will run or pass on those plays. Game script has a major impact on how teams approach offensive balance. For this reason, each team’s wins and their average margin of victory (MOV) are important contexts. Teams that win more often by larger margins will lead more and vice versa.
Game Script and Play Calling Splits by Wins (2014 - 2018)
|
Team Wins
|
5 or fewer
|
6 or 7
|
8 or 9
|
10 or 11
|
12 or more
|
|
Leading %
|
21%
|
30%
|
35%
|
44%
|
51%
|
|
Tied %
|
18%
|
18%
|
20%
|
19%
|
20%
|
|
Trailing %
|
61%
|
51%
|
46%
|
36%
|
30%
|
|
Pass %
|
59%
|
58%
|
57%
|
55%
|
54%
|
|
Rush %
|
41%
|
42%
|
43%
|
45%
|
46%
|
Below is a breakdown of each team’s play volume and splits for the 2018 season. Each team is broken down by leading, tied, and trailing scenarios.
Wins – Half wins represent ties
MOV – Average margin of victory (points scored minus points allowed)
Plays – Totals pass attempts, sacks, and rush attempts
Attempts – Totals pass attempts and rush attempts
Pass % – Based on attempts (for projecting purposes)
Rush % – Based on attempts (for projecting purposes)
Lead, Tie, and Trail Data – Based on total plays
All data sourced from Pro Football Reference.
2018 Team Plays and Splits by Game Script
|
Team
|
Wins
|
MOV
|
Plays
|
Attempts
|
Pass %
|
Rush %
|
Lead play %
|
lead Pass %
|
lead rush %
|
tie play %
|
tie pass %
|
tie rush %
|
trail play %
|
trail pass %
|
trail rush %
|
|
ARI
|
3
|
-12.5
|
902
|
850
|
58%
|
42%
|
13%
|
50%
|
50%
|
18%
|
52%
|
48%
|
68%
|
65%
|
35%
|
|
ATL
|
7
|
-0.6
|
1010
|
968
|
64%
|
36%
|
31%
|
60%
|
40%
|
19%
|
63%
|
37%
|
51%
|
69%
|
31%
|
|
BAL
|
10
|
6.4
|
1135
|
1103
|
50%
|
50%
|
45%
|
42%
|
58%
|
21%
|
51%
|
49%
|
34%
|
65%
|
35%
|
|
BUF
|
6
|
-6.6
|
1008
|
967
|
52%
|
48%
|
29%
|
39%
|
61%
|
17%
|
50%
|
50%
|
54%
|
62%
|
38%
|
|
CAR
|
7
|
-0.4
|
1011
|
979
|
58%
|
42%
|
33%
|
45%
|
55%
|
28%
|
54%
|
46%
|
39%
|
74%
|
26%
|
|
CHI
|
12
|
8.6
|
1013
|
980
|
52%
|
48%
|
51%
|
49%
|
51%
|
21%
|
51%
|
49%
|
27%
|
65%
|
35%
|
|
CIN
|
6
|
-5.4
|
938
|
901
|
60%
|
40%
|
24%
|
55%
|
45%
|
22%
|
59%
|
41%
|
54%
|
66%
|
34%
|
|
CLE
|
7.5
|
-2.1
|
1023
|
985
|
58%
|
42%
|
25%
|
46%
|
54%
|
23%
|
61%
|
39%
|
52%
|
66%
|
34%
|
|
DAL
|
10
|
0.9
|
1022
|
966
|
55%
|
45%
|
40%
|
50%
|
50%
|
27%
|
57%
|
43%
|
32%
|
66%
|
34%
|
|
DEN
|
6
|
-1.3
|
1015
|
981
|
60%
|
40%
|
16%
|
42%
|
58%
|
23%
|
58%
|
42%
|
61%
|
68%
|
32%
|
|
DET
|
6
|
-2.3
|
1019
|
978
|
59%
|
41%
|
33%
|
49%
|
51%
|
18%
|
53%
|
47%
|
49%
|
71%
|
29%
|
|
GB
|
6.5
|
-1.5
|
1026
|
973
|
66%
|
34%
|
28%
|
61%
|
39%
|
20%
|
61%
|
39%
|
52%
|
74%
|
26%
|
|
HOU
|
11
|
5.4
|
1040
|
978
|
52%
|
48%
|
47%
|
48%
|
52%
|
16%
|
58%
|
42%
|
37%
|
61%
|
39%
|
|
IND
|
10
|
5.6
|
1070
|
1052
|
61%
|
39%
|
37%
|
51%
|
49%
|
22%
|
60%
|
40%
|
41%
|
73%
|
27%
|
|
JAX
|
5
|
-4.4
|
1005
|
952
|
56%
|
44%
|
26%
|
55%
|
45%
|
23%
|
46%
|
54%
|
51%
|
66%
|
34%
|
|
KC
|
12
|
9.0
|
996
|
970
|
60%
|
40%
|
58%
|
57%
|
43%
|
18%
|
64%
|
36%
|
24%
|
70%
|
30%
|
|
LAC
|
12
|
6.2
|
945
|
911
|
56%
|
44%
|
47%
|
50%
|
50%
|
13%
|
57%
|
43%
|
40%
|
67%
|
33%
|
|
LAR
|
13
|
8.9
|
1060
|
1027
|
55%
|
45%
|
49%
|
48%
|
52%
|
17%
|
61%
|
39%
|
34%
|
68%
|
32%
|
|
MIA
|
7
|
-7.1
|
878
|
826
|
55%
|
45%
|
25%
|
51%
|
49%
|
24%
|
53%
|
47%
|
51%
|
64%
|
36%
|
|
MIN
|
8.5
|
1.2
|
1003
|
963
|
63%
|
37%
|
36%
|
50%
|
50%
|
19%
|
63%
|
37%
|
46%
|
76%
|
24%
|
|
NE
|
11
|
6.9
|
1073
|
1052
|
55%
|
45%
|
52%
|
51%
|
49%
|
21%
|
54%
|
46%
|
27%
|
65%
|
35%
|
|
NO
|
13
|
9.4
|
1010
|
990
|
52%
|
48%
|
40%
|
45%
|
55%
|
20%
|
58%
|
42%
|
40%
|
59%
|
41%
|
|
NYG
|
5
|
-2.7
|
984
|
937
|
62%
|
38%
|
29%
|
52%
|
48%
|
13%
|
60%
|
40%
|
58%
|
71%
|
29%
|
|
NYJ
|
4
|
-6.8
|
971
|
934
|
56%
|
44%
|
24%
|
45%
|
55%
|
16%
|
52%
|
48%
|
60%
|
64%
|
36%
|
|
OAK
|
4
|
-11.1
|
995
|
943
|
59%
|
41%
|
23%
|
49%
|
51%
|
21%
|
57%
|
43%
|
57%
|
67%
|
33%
|
|
PHI
|
9
|
1.2
|
1037
|
997
|
60%
|
40%
|
32%
|
56%
|
44%
|
16%
|
59%
|
41%
|
52%
|
66%
|
34%
|
|
PIT
|
9.5
|
4.3
|
1058
|
1034
|
67%
|
33%
|
41%
|
55%
|
45%
|
21%
|
67%
|
33%
|
37%
|
82%
|
18%
|
|
SEA
|
10
|
5.1
|
1012
|
961
|
44%
|
56%
|
33%
|
40%
|
60%
|
26%
|
41%
|
59%
|
41%
|
57%
|
43%
|
|
SF
|
4
|
-5.8
|
1003
|
955
|
56%
|
44%
|
31%
|
50%
|
50%
|
16%
|
56%
|
44%
|
53%
|
63%
|
37%
|
|
TB
|
5
|
-4.3
|
1055
|
1014
|
62%
|
38%
|
32%
|
57%
|
43%
|
15%
|
56%
|
44%
|
53%
|
69%
|
31%
|
|
TEN
|
9
|
0.4
|
940
|
893
|
49%
|
51%
|
29%
|
41%
|
59%
|
20%
|
51%
|
49%
|
51%
|
58%
|
42%
|
|
WAS
|
7
|
-4.9
|
967
|
923
|
55%
|
45%
|
33%
|
45%
|
55%
|
15%
|
57%
|
43%
|
51%
|
65%
|
35%
|
|
NFL AVG
|
8
|
0
|
1007
|
967
|
57%
|
43%
|
34%
|
50%
|
50%
|
20%
|
56%
|
44%
|
46%
|
67%
|
33%
|
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