The NFL is a copy cat league. Sean McVay is the template.
The internal dialogue of many NFL executives seems to be, “Sean McVay is an innovative coach. Sean McVay is young. Innovative coaches are young. We need a young coach.”
Bengals’ president Mike Brown has said as much when asked about the youth movement after hiring Zac Taylor. “That’s the trend in the National Football League these days, and we’ll be following that trend,” Brown stated. There is a lot wrong with this statement. Is following a trend an advantageous way to run an organization? Zac Taylor could very well be that guy but hopefully for reasons other than trend following.
The Bengals aren’t the only ones. For a full overview of all the inexperienced play-callers in 2019, Jason Wood has you covered.
Taylor has spent the last two seasons with Sean McVay – the template himself. However, Taylor didn’t call plays under McVay. The former Nebraska quarterback has a little over one season of play-calling experience. In 2015 he served as the interim offensive coordinator of the Dolphins for five games after the firing of Bill Lazor. The following season he joined the University of Cincinnati where he served as the Bearcats’ offensive coordinator.
Zac Taylor Coaching History
| Season | Team | Coach Pos | HC | OC | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | L.A. Rams | Quarterbacks Coach | Sean McVay | - | - |
| 2017 | L.A. Rams | Asst Wide Receivers Coach | Sean McVay | Matt LaFleur | - |
| 2016 | Cincinnati Bearcats | Offensive Coordinator | Tommy Tuberville | - | - |
| 2015 | Miami Dolphins | Interim Offensive Coordinator | Joe Philbin | Bill Lazor | - |
| 2014 | Miami Dolphins | Quarterbacks Coach | Joe Philbin | Bill Lazor | - |
| 2013 | Miami Dolphins | Quarterbacks Coach | Joe Philbin | Mike Sherman | Sean McVay (Tight Ends) |
| 2012 | Miami Dolphins | Asst Quarterbacks Coach | Joe Philbin | Mike Sherman | Sean McVay (Tight Ends) |
Taylor is on the record stating the Bengals will be an exciting brand of offense that will attack and be creative. When asked about how similar the offense will look to the Rams, Taylor said it would be a “big part” of what the team does.
Play Volume – Increase
The Bengals have been among the bottom performers in the league the past two seasons in attempts.
Bengals Attempt Volume and Splits
| Team | Season | Plays | Attempts | Pass Att | Pass % | Rush Att | Rush % | Leading % | Tied % | Trailing % | Pass % Tied | Rush % Tied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 2018 | 938 | 901 | 542 | 60% | 359 | 40% | 24% | 22% | 54% | 59% | 41% |
| CIN | 2017 | 927 | 887 | 510 | 57% | 377 | 43% | 37% | 16% | 47% | 56% | 44% |
| CIN | 2016 | 1050 | 1009 | 563 | 56% | 446 | 44% | 35% | 15% | 50% | 59% | 41% |
| AVG | 972 | 932 | 538 | 58% | 394 | 42% |
Health was certainly an issue as the quality of play deteriorated in the second half of 2018. A.J. Green missed seven of the last eight games. Andy Dalton missed the last five. Tyler Boyd missed the last two.
Before the Green injury, the Bengals were on pace for 930 attempts. That pace slowed to 872 post-Green injury. However, those are still low numbers. The average NFL team has 982 attempts over the past five seasons. The average six to seven-win team has 976 attempts. The Bengals fit that criteria but have only executed a lowly 901 and 887 attempts the past two seasons.
With Taylor at the helm expect the molasses-like residue of Marvin Lewis to evaporate. The Bengals will see a significant increase in attempts.
Zac Taylor Attempt Volume and Splits
| Team | Season | Plays | Attempts | PassAtt | Pass % | Rush Att | Rush % | Leading % | Tied % | Trailing % | Pass % Tied | Rush % Tied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAR | 2018 | 1060 | 1027 | 568 | 55% | 459 | 45% | 49% | 17% | 34% | 61% | 39% |
| LAR | 2017 | 1000 | 972 | 518 | 53% | 454 | 47% | 56% | 17% | 27% | 61% | 39% |
| MIA | 2015 | 977 | 932 | 588 | 63% | 344 | 37% | 20% | 19% | 62% | 61% | 39% |
| MIA | 2015 | 1040 | 994 | 595 | 60% | 399 | 40% | 35% | 15% | 50% | 58% | 42% |
| MIA | 2014 | 1001 | 943 | 594 | 63% | 349 | 37% | 27% | 23% | 49% | 63% | 37% |
| MIA | 2013 | 981 | 944 | 504 | 53% | 440 | 47% | 35% | 27% | 38% | 52% | 48% |
| AVG | 1010 | 969 | 561 | 58% | 408 | 42% |
2019 Projected Attempts: 975 (+74)
Pass vs. Run Splits – No Change
Taylor will likely be a pass-first coach in tied game situations but will not be afraid to lean on the run when the game script is favorable. If the Bengals surprise and win 9 to 10 games expect more rushing, similar to the approach of McVay with the Rams. Vegas has this team at six wins though meaning trailing situations are more likely to dominate than leading.
Mixon will get more opportunities in 2019 but more due to the increase in offensive attempts than a big shift to the run game.
Projected 2019 Split: 59% Pass (-1%) and 41% Run (+1%)
Scheme and Personnel Utilization Notes
With respect to Taylor's comments concerning the Rams offense being a “big part” of what the Bengals do schematically, here are a few things to expect.
Andy Dalton will operate more from under center, and play-action passing will increase.
Zac Taylor recently commented, “I’ve seen Andy do all the things we’re going to ask him to do here.” “He’s been great under center. Great in play-action, great on the perimeter in the naked (bootlegs), he’s been an accurate passer. He and Jared (Goff) are very similar personality-wise. They’re very smart.”
If you have watched the Rams, this comment points to a very similar approach.
Since 2012 the average NFL team uses play-action on 21% of attempts. The Rams have used it on 36% and 29% the past two years. The Bengals have used it on 26% and 28%. Those numbers alone aren’t a big difference. The difference will be utilizing play action from under center. The Rams operated under center 63% of the time, and 186 of their 206 total play-action attempts came from under center. The Bengals only had 62 play-action attempts from under center.
Now incorporate more 11 personnel (three wide receivers) looks into the equation and you have the foundational principles of the Rams offense. To this point, it has put many defenses in a bind. Defenders are used to 11 personnel, but not from under center with hyperactive play-action passing.
The Bengals began this offseason with zero viable tight end options signed. Since then they extended C.J. Uzomah at the going rate of a No. 2 tight end, signed a one-year deal with Tyler Eifert, and drafted Drew Sample in the second round.
Some in the community expect the Bengals to deploy more two-tight end sets (12 personnel) citing their signing of three tight ends this offseason. Given the unknowns around John Ross this is a potential outcome, but probably hinges more on Ross showing he belongs on the field with A.J. Green and Tyler Boyd. Of the tight ends, Tyler Eifert is the only one that is seen as a matchup problem for defenses.
Targeting the running backs has been a staple of the Rams offense the past two seasons. Todd Gurley has seen over 15% of the team targets on a per-game basis. Expect Joe Mixon to be used similarly but sharing more than Gurley did with Giovani Bernard.
Fantasy Stock Impact
Andy Dalton – Up
Andy Dalton can be a viable fantasy option when his strengths and weaknesses are accounted for by his coaching staff. That is exactly what we can expect from Taylor. Dalton has proven to be an adequate play-action passer over his career. His best season in 2015 was also his most efficient year utilizing play-action. That year he also saw the most run-after-catch yardage in his career from his receivers (4.1). This offense is designed to provide Dalton more help in that area (3.7 and 4.2 for the Rams over the last two seasons) and the receiver trio plus Mixon have the appropriate skill sets to help.
Joe Mixon – Up
Mixon likely won’t see Todd Gurley type touches as some are touting. Yes, he is a high quality back, but Bernard is going to get some run. Sean McVay never had a change of pace type until drafting Darrell Henderson this season. Mixon will see more carries (~260) and targets (~70) as a by-product of a more efficient offense. He also gets a bump in big-play and touchdown upside.
A.J. Green – Holding Steady
Green will be the lead wide receiver in what should be a better offense. Overall, it probably doesn’t impact his volume outlook. However, he could see a spike in efficiency based on superior play design focused on getting him favorable matchups.
Tyler Boyd – Holding Steady
Boyd, who just received a four year $43M dollar extension, will operate from the slot similar to the Cooper Kupp role. His fate is somewhat attached to his counterpart Ross. If Ross again doesn’t live up to his draft capital expect Boyd to see solid volume as the number two behind Green. However, if Ross steps up, Boyd could take a slight step back in targets. The Rams receivers cap each other’s upside with all three receiving similar prorated target volumes. In Cincinnati Green will likely be the top target thus shrinking volume opportunity for Boyd and Ross to share if both play well.
John Ross – Up
Ross gets another chance to disprove his doubters. He couldn’t have asked for a better situation. Taylor will attempt to utilize Ross’s speed similarly to Brandin Cooks. Ross has a real opportunity to carve out 15% of the target share and make some big plays.
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