For the first time in 13 years, Mike McCarthy won't be coaching the Packers. Enter Matt LaFleur, plucked from the vine of a popular new coaching tree – Sean McVay. Following the vine down the trunk, one will find the roots of LaFleur’s offense – Kyle Shanahan, Mike Shanahan, and Gary Kubiak.
Matt Lafleur's coaching affiliations
| Season | Team | Coach Pos | HC | OC | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | Tennessee Titans | Offensive Coordinator | Mike Vrabel | - | - |
| 2017 | L.A. Rams | Offensive Coordinator | Sean McVay | - | - |
| 2016 | Atlanta Falcons | QB Coach | Dan Quinn | Kyle Shanahan | - |
| 2015 | Atlanta Falcons | QB Coach | Dan Quinn | Kyle Shanahan | - |
| 2014 | Notre Dame | QB Coach | Brian Kelly | Mike Denbrock | - |
| 2013 | Washington Redskins | QB Coach | Mike Shanahan | Kyle Shanahan | Sean McVay (TEs) |
| 2012 | Washington Redskins | QB Coach | Mike Shanahan | Kyle Shanahan | Sean McVay (TEs) |
| 2011 | Washington Redskins | QB Coach | Mike Shanahan | Kyle Shanahan | Sean McVay (TEs) |
| 2010 | Washington Redskins | QB Coach | Mike Shanahan | Kyle Shanahan | Sean McVay (TEs) |
| 2009 | Houston Texans | Offensive Quality Control | Gary Kubiak | Kyle Shanahan | - |
| 2008 | Houston Texans | Offensive Quality Control | Gary Kubiak | Kyle Shanahan | - |
Each coach has utilized the outside-zone run paired with similar action passing plays to set up punches, counter punches, and knockouts. Each has varied personnel groups to maximize success. Most recently, McVay has utilized 11 personnel with three solid receivers (Jay Gruden influence) to give the scheme a revamped look.
What type of impact can we expect from Matt LaFleur on the Packers in 2019?
Play Volume - No Change
The Packers attempted 973 plays last season and have averaged 972 over the past three campaigns. LaFleur only had play-calling duties last season with the Titans, which manufactured a measly 893 attempts.
Traditionally, coordinators utilizing this scheme haven't dip that low. The influence of defensive-minded head coach Mike Vrabel, quarterback health, and game scripts are likely contributing factors. The team was managing very tight margins (0.4 points average margin of victory).
Mike McCarthy attempt volume and splits
| Team | Season | Plays | Attempts | Pass Att | Pass % | Rush Att | Rush % | Pass % Tied | Rush % Tied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GB | 2018 | 1026 | 973 | 640 | 66% | 333 | 34% | 61% | 39% |
| GB | 2017 | 999 | 948 | 562 | 59% | 386 | 41% | 56% | 44% |
| GB | 2016 | 1029 | 994 | 620 | 62% | 374 | 38% | 62% | 38% |
| AVG | 1018 | 972 | 607 | 63% | 364 | 37% |
matt lafleur attempt volume and splits
| Team | Season | Plays | Attempts | Pass Att | Pass % | Rush Att | Rush % | Pass % Tied | Rush % Tied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEN | 2018 | 940 | 893 | 437 | 49% | 456 | 51% | 51% | 49% |
| LAR | 2017 | 1000 | 972 | 518 | 53% | 454 | 47% | 61% | 39% |
| ATL | 2016 | 995 | 958 | 537 | 56% | 421 | 44% | 62% | 38% |
| ATL | 2015 | 1073 | 1041 | 621 | 60% | 420 | 40% | 61% | 39% |
| WAS | 2013 | 1107 | 1064 | 611 | 57% | 453 | 43% | 47% | 53% |
| WAS | 2012 | 994 | 961 | 442 | 46% | 519 | 54% | 46% | 54% |
| WAS | 2011 | 1032 | 991 | 591 | 60% | 400 | 40% | 57% | 43% |
| WAS | 2010 | 1002 | 956 | 605 | 63% | 351 | 37% | - | - |
| HOU | 2009 | 1043 | 1018 | 593 | 58% | 425 | 42% | - | - |
| HOU | 2008 | 1019 | 987 | 555 | 56% | 432 | 44% | - | - |
| AVG | 1021 | 984 | 551 | 56% | 433 | 44% | - | - |
Over time there aren't enough consistent high or low marks to project this offense much the NFL average of 977.
2019 Projected Attempts: 985
Pass vs. Run Splits - Increase in Running
McCarthy and the Packers played from behind 52%, 61%, and 37% of plays the last three seasons. Despite playing behind less in 2016, McCarthy still utilized a pass-heavy approach (62%).
The percentage of run attempts will go up based on the design of this offense. The question is by how much. Vegas has the Packers at nine wins. Since 2012 teams with eight to nine wins play 46% of snaps from behind. Teams with 10 to 11 wins play 37% of snaps trailing.
Leading, tied, and trailing splits vs wins (2012 to 2018)
| Wins | >= 12 | 10 to 11 | 8 to 9 | 6 to 7 | <=6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leading % | 51% | 44% | 33% | 31% | 22% |
| Tied % | 19% | 20% | 20% | 19% | 18% |
| Trailing % | 30% | 37% | 46% | 51% | 60% |
Projected 2019 Split: 57% Pass (-9%) and 43% Run (+9%)
Scheme and Personnel Utilization Notes
Mike McCarthy's utilization of 11 personnel goes back a long way. In 2018 it was used on 78% of plays. The Titans saw an increase in 11 personnel under LaFleur at 56%.
LaFleur, Shanahan, and McVay scheme splits vs. league averages
| NFL | LaFleur | Shanahan | McVay | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Personnel | 65% | 56% | 42% | 89% |
| Under Center | 37% | 49% | 56% | 63% |
| Shotgun | 63% | 51% | 44% | 37% |
| Run % Under Center | 68% | 71% | 61% | 66% |
| Run % Shotgun | 23% | 25% | 18% | 4% |
| YPA Under Center | - | 8.7 | 9.3 | 8.9 |
| YPA Under Center Play Action | - | 9.0 | 9.8 | 10.5 |
| YPA Shotgun | - | 6.5 | 7.2 | 7.5 |
| YPA Shotgun Play Action | - | 8.8 | 13.2 | 7.4 |
Each of these coaches deploys a similar scheme via different personnel groupings and quarterback alignment. Understanding how LaFleur plans on utilizing his personnel has important fantasy implications.
Under McCarthy, Rodgers was never able to squeeze consistent efficiency increases out of play-action like the rest of the league. Over the past seven years, Rodgers yards-per-attempt differential was at the league average or below five times.
In six out of the last ten seasons, McCarthy’s teams have ranked below the league average (4.6%) in explosive runs (greater than or equal to 15 yards). Matt LaFleur, on the other hand, has been around some of the most explosive running games in seven of ten seasons. McCarthy’s teams have averaged 4.1% versus 5.3% for LaFleur.
Fantasy Stock Impact
Aaron Rodgers – Holding Steady
Matt Ryan and Jared Goff have had career seasons in this scheme. John Elway rode this scheme to two Super Bowls in the twilight of his career. Matt Schaub was more than fantasy viable under Gary Kubiak. Rodgers could thrive. It is a matter of he and LaFleur finding the right play designs that integrate scheme principles and what Rodgers does best. If things are clicking early, this assessment easily flips to up. Rodgers could see big efficiency gains in an effective play-action aided scheme.
Aaron Jones – Up
At a minimum, LaFleur's commitment to more balance creates the opportunity for more carries. Jones is a better fit for the wide zone scheme than Jamaal Williams. For a full breakdown on the range of outcomes, see Jones’ Player Spotlight.
Valdes-Scantling is holding down the number two wide receiver role entering training camp. Operating as number two insulates his value whichever way LaFleur decides to lean regarding personnel groupings. He is an ascending talent who could be as high as number two in the pecking order for targets from an elite quarterback.
Geronimo Allison – Holding Steady
Allison enters training camp as the lead slot option. His value is dependent on how the personnel grouping situation pans out. If LaFleur heads the way of McVay, Allison could see value similar to Cooper Kupp at a massive discount. If LaFleur stays closer to his 56% of 11 personnel groupings like last year, Allison will struggle to deliver consistently unless he overtakes Valdes-Scantling in two-wide looks.
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