Coaching Change Analysis: Minnesota Vikings

Photo: USA Today Sports

Vikings’ offensive coordinator John DeFilippo was fired by the Vikings after a Week 14 loss to the Seattle Seahawks last season. Quarterbacks coach, Kevin Stefanski, was promoted to interim offensive coordinator.

The Vikings retained Stefanski in that role over the offseason but also brought in Gary Kubiak as the assistant head coach. Kubiak is known for his zone-running scheme and play-action passing. He will help integrate the pass and run elements of the Vikings offense to provide Kirk Cousins with more favorable looks in the passing game similar to what we see from Kyle Shanahan.

Pairing the Kubiak hire and the run-heavy nature the Vikings displayed in the final three games under Kevin Stefanski has many thinking the offense is under direct orders from Mike Zimmer to be run-heavy.

We will get to the projected attempt volumes and pass split changes like we usually do in this series, but to figure out how to project this team, we must investigate the narrative above first.

DeFilippo the Deviant and Stefanski the Savior

DeFilippo’s offense started hot scoring 27 points or more in four of seven games. However, over the second seven games, the Vikings scored 20 or less in four of seven games. After a two-game skid versus the Patriots and Seahawks where the offense managed only 17 points head coach Mike Zimmer decided to shake things up.

“I felt like I don’t want this season to be wasted. Maybe it will, maybe it won’t, but these three (last) games to me are very, very critical and we need to play good.”

After the loss to the Patriots, the week before Zimmer was how he thought the offense could get going by reporters. He replied, “Same thing I have said all year.” Then asked if the Vikings ran enough, he answered, “No.”

During DeFilippo’s 13 games the Vikings passed 67% and ran 33%. Since taking over the Vikings in 2014, Zimmer’s teams have passed 58%, 51%, 62%, and 53%. At first glance, it seems DeFilippo’s splits are way out of whack with his head coach’s history.

What is interesting is the two highest pass-percentage years came on the lowest margin-of-victory seasons in 2014 (-1.1) and 2016 (1.3). The Vikings were at -.7 through 13 games with DeFilippo.

Further digging into the game-by-game data provides some more context.

DeFilippo Pass and Run Splits by Game

DeFilippo was pass-heavy in nine games. Four of those were big losses – most teams pass in this situation. Three were in high scoring games decided by one score – also not an uncommon pass game script. The Eagles game could be deemed questionable. It was decided by one score but was not high scoring. That leaves one true outlier, the game versus the Jets where the Vikings passed 63% of the time despite winning by 20 points.

When accounting for the game scripts, there are only two games where DeFilippo might have been a bit pass-happy. That kind of stuff happens, it could have been a matchup thing, the Vikings won both of those games.

Once DeFilippo departed, and Kevin Stefanski took over, the Vikings passed only 52% of the time.

Stefanski Pass and Run Splits by Game

Yes, the Vikings ran more, but two of the three games blowout wins (24 and 18 points). In the final week versus Chicago, they lost big and passed 71% of plays.

DeFilippo ran the ball 46% and 50% in the two big wins besides the outlier Jets game. When taking all of this into consideration, there doesn’t seem to be any overwhelming substance to the Vikings going heavy run because DeFilippo the Deviant was removed.

Game flow appears to have as much to do with all of the team’s passing and rushing splits throughout the season as anything else. Mike Zimmer made it clear last season he wanted to run more, but what he may have been referencing is the integration of run and pass looks. His main beef with DeFilippo was effectiveness. Zimmer wanted to utilize the run game to get the offense “rolling.”

Enter Gary Kubiak.

Play Volume – Increase

Kubiak will be a strong voice in the 2019 Vikings offense. He understands how to maximize the things Kirk Cousins is good at and this is a team built to win now. The Vikings are also vested in seeing Kevin Stefanski continue to grow. He is a homegrown Vikings product who has been with the team since 2009 serving various roles under Darrell Bevell, Bill Musgrave, Norv Turner, and John DeFilippo.

In 2018 the Vikings ran 1003 plays and had 963 attempts.

Kubiak Attempt Volumes and Splits

In Kubiak’s last 11 years his team has finished over 1,000 attempts six times averaging 999 attempts. He has quite the knack for going to overtime. Since 2010 he has played in 10 overtime games. Years 2010, 2012, and 2013 had two. The Broncos played in three overtime contests in 2015. However, in three of four years with zero overtime games, he also reached the 1,000 attempt plateau.

2019 Projected Attempts: 1,000 (+37)

Pass vs. Run Splits – Increase in Running

Kubiak has shown the propensity to adapt to his talent and game situation. Historically he has favored the pass in neutral game-script scenarios with Peyton Manning and Matt Schaub. Kirk Cousins is more towards the Schaub end of this spectrum but is a capable signal-caller. He also has two high-quality pass targets in Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen.

Kubiak and Stefanski will run the ball at a higher percentage than DeFilippo but don’t expect passing to be down in 52% to 53% range unless the Vikes are blowing teams out. Diggs and Thielen will still be focal points of this offense along with the run.

Projected 2019 Split: 57% (-6%) 43% Run (+6%)

Scheme and Personnel Utilization Notes

Kirk Cousins is good at both deep and play-action passing. Each year he ranks well above the league averages in completion percentage on passes of 20 yards or more. He also consistently gets touchdown production off of deep looks. In the past three seasons, 37% or more of his touchdowns have come via deep passes.

Deep passing and play action can go hand in hand, and this is the case for Cousins. He is above or at the league average in yards per attempt (YPA) differential on play-action passes every season of his career. Over the past three seasons, he had a plus YPA of 1.9, 2.3, and 2.8.

Kubiak will help Stefanski maximize these areas of Cousin’s game.

Fantasy Stock Impact

Kirk Cousins – Holding Steady

While Cousins won’t have as many attempts as last season, the situation won’t be as dire as some believe. His YPA could jump over eight yards per attempt for the third season in his career. Expect similar yardage and touchdowns to 2018 at a discounted ADP.

Dalvin Cook – Up

Cook only needs to stay healthy. He will give way to rookie Alexander Mattison at times but will be the lead back in a scheme that has provided us with Terrell Davis, Clinton Portis, and Arian Foster. Cook has immense upside as a dual-threat back. Cook is a rock-solid RB2 with RB1 upside.

Adam Thielen – Holding Steady

Thielen will take a slight hit in the targets department with Cousins attempts dipping from 600 plus down to the 570 range. However, Thielen was shredding the league before his under-reported calf injury in week nine. Despite avoiding the final team injury report, he was often limited or missing practice time after the injury, and the offense wasn’t the same. Thielen is still a viable WR2 with sneaky WR1 upside considering his splits pre-injury.

Stefon Diggs – Holding Steady

Like Thielen, Diggs takes a slight hit due to a drop in pass attempts. However, it isn’t significant enough to downgrade his outlook. He is still a fine WR2.