The regular season is over and, with it, the classic season-long fantasy football season. DFS and playoff contests are keeping the puzzle-solving fantasy mind stimulated, but this is also a good time to reflect and see what we learned, what made the crank on the fantasy wheel of fate turn in 2019. Hindsight rankings are a good exercise and some of the results might surprise us. Sorting out the overachievers, underachievers, and pushes as compared to ADP and looking for patterns can help us identify players and situations with the potential for explosive growth or catastrophic failure this year.
ELITE WR1
1. Michael Thomas, NO (ADP: WR4)
Thomas was truly unguardable this season and it didn’t matter who was throwing him the ball. His floor games at a strong WR2/low WR1 level and he was far and away the WR1 during the fantasy playoffs. Even though he was at a record-breaking level, it won’t be surprising to see him maintain a huge gap between him and the #2 receiver in 2020.
Offseason Dynasty Advice: His value can’t get much higher, but that doesn’t mean he’s a good sell high.
2020 ADP Outlook: He’ll be the first wide receiver off of the board in drafts, but you might still be able to get him at the fourth or even fifth pick. Do it.
SOLID WR1
2. Julio Jones, ATL (ADP: WR5)
Jones had more peaks and valleys than 2018, and when the Falcons had a brief revival, his numbers suffered because of game script. He also missed a game on the eve of the fantasy playoffs, but he came through for fantasy players in Weeks 15/16.
Offseason Dynasty Advice: Rebuilding teams may look to move Jones because of age, and they are likely to undersell him.
2020 ADP Outlook: Jones should continue to be available around the 1-2 turn, if not into the mid-second.
3. DeAndre Hopkins, HOU (ADP: WR1)
Hopkins had a short slump from Weeks 2-4 and was a dud in Week 16, but overall he was a level WR1 and had a 10-week stretch of 15+ point PPR games in between those low points and didn’t disappoint anyone who took him as the first wide receiver off of the board, even though his numbers dropped across the board.
Offseason Dynasty Advice: Hopkins is no more attainable than he was last year at this time and there’s an argument that his value dropped more than perceived because the fall in top wide receiver numbers across the board. He might be a sell if someone will give up the farm for him.
2020 ADP Outlook: Hopkins step back in production will have him residing in the late first instead of mid-first this year.
4. Chris Godwin, TB (ADP: WR20)
Godwin was a favorite upside WR2/WR3 pick and he paid off in spades. While Godwin was usually producing at a WR2/WR3 level, he punctuated his season with a three-week peak in Weeks 4-6 that was as good as any receiver this season and also hit high notes in Weeks 2 and 12. He did miss Week 16 with an injury to end his breakout year with a whimper.
Offseason Dynasty Advice: While Godwin arrived in fantasy terms, his numbers were inflated by a pass-heavy scheme and bold quarterback, and he might have a new passer this year if Jameis Winston isn’t brought back. He might be a sell high.
2020 ADP Outlook: Godwin will likely be priced around the mid-second which indicates a little skepticism about him finishing as the WR2 on a points-per-game basis again.
5. Davante Adams, GB (ADP: WR2)
Adams was the only reliable receiver Aaron Rodgers had and his best football came at the end of the season. He did miss three games with a toe injury, but his play wasn’t affected by it after he returned, and he like, Hopkins, was one of the more consistent of the solid WR1 group.
Offseason Dynasty Advice: Adams should be joined by at least one more viable pass catcher, but that could be good for his fantasy numbers, especially if his toe injury was capping his upside this year. He’s a slight buy.
2020 ADP Outlook: Adams will go in the late first/early second after being a first-round pick consistently, making him a value in 2020 drafts.
6. Tyreek Hill, KC (ADP: WR6)
Hill missed four games with a shoulder injury and had two injury-shortened duds, but he was a solid to strong WR1 the rest of the way. He did have fewer explosive plays this year, but if he hadn’t missed so much time with injury, his receptions and scores would have been around the 2018 level.
Offseason Dynasty Advice: Hill had one of the most bizarre buy low windows when it looked like a long suspension was in his future last offseason, but he didn’t even serve one game after the league found no fault with his actions in an inconclusive child injury investigation. He’s back to peak value if you are worried about more legal entanglements in the future.
2020 ADP Outlook: Early drafters aren’t being fooled by his low cumulative numbers and he’s going a little earlier in the second round than he did last year.
7. Mike Evans, TB (ADP: WR8)
Evans was the second-best fantasy receiver on his team, but he was still a hit at ADP. Like his teammate, Evans was often a middling contributor to fantasy lineups, and even had a zero, but his top three games and best three-game stretch were better than any receiver including Michael Thomas. Evans went down with a hamstring injury in Week 14 and wasn’t available in Weeks 15 and 16.
Offseason Dynasty Advice: Evans is still at his peak, turning 27 this year, and if he hadn’t gotten hurt, he would have equaled his strong 2018 campaign. He’s a slight buy, but more likely impossible to obtain.
2020 ADP Outlook: Evans will go right around the same range as last year in the mid-late second, and drafters will have trouble choosing between him and his teammate.
LOW WR1
8. Julian Edelman, NE (ADP: WR14)
The weakness of the Patriots offense was Edelman’s gain as he was the only receiver in tune with Tom Brady. He was one of the most consistent wide receivers in PPR leagues, although he wore down in December and had a lineup killing week in Week 15.
Offseason Dynasty Advice: The bottom could drop out if Tom Brady leaves, and even if Brady doesn’t, it’s time for rebuilding teams to sell.
2020 ADP Outlook: The uncertainty around Edelman is reflected in his early draft WR3 5th-7th round price, but if Brady comes back, he should rise to the fourth or maybe even third round.
9. Cooper Kupp, LAR (ADP: WR21)
There was a lot of debate about which Rams receiver to target and many shied away from Kupp because he was recovering from ACL surgery. For the first half of the season, Kupp was a near-elite WR1, but some turmoil in the Rams offense and a sometimes changing role size saddled Kupp with a zero and no real peaks in the second half of the year.
Offseason Dynasty Advice: Kupp’s sell high window has come and gone and he’s not going to fetch a price near the established WR1 numbers picture his 2019 painted at year’s end. He’s a hold.
2020 ADP Outlook: Kupp will go in the 3rd-5th round range, which splits the difference between his first and second halves.
10. Keenan Allen, LAC (ADP: WR11)
Allen was shot out of cannon to begin the season, then had a six-week stretch where he was benchable and finally levelled off as a high floor PPR WR1 for the last six games of the fantasy season.
Offseason Dynasty Advice: The Chargers are at a quarterback crossroads, which doesn’t bode well for Allen in the short term, but he is still a very stable investment long-term, turning 28 this year and not missing a game over the last three seasons.
2020 ADP Outlook: Allen will be a slight value again as a third round pick.
11. Allen Robinson, CHI (ADP: WR29)
Congrats if you bet on Robinson not being 100% in 2018 and against Mitchell Trubisky’s ability to hold back his value. Robinson had peaks and valleys, which is more than one can say for Trubisky’s peak-less season, but finished with a strong WR1 flurry and always played better than his numbers.
Offseason Dynasty Advice: Robinson turns 27 in August. Be willing to overpay for him despite the rocky quarterback seas he is currently adrift in.
2020 ADP Outlook: Robinson won’t get any respect as a likely fourth round pick. Target him.
12. Amari Cooper, DAL (ADP: WR12)
Worries about Cooper’s foot issue coming into the season did not materially hold him back at first and nine weeks into the season, he was a strong WR1 with only one dud. Injuries seemed to catch up with him for the last six games of the fantasy season, with only two hits and four games of lineup liability level production.
Offseason Dynasty Advice: Cooper should be re-signed by the Cowboys along with his quarterback, but he is probably regarded higher than his actual 2019 production. He’s a hold.
2020 ADP Outlook: He’ll be in the third round again, but if his foot is better and Randall Cobb isn’t brought back, he might be a value at that price.
13. Kenny Golladay, DET (ADP: WR19)
It might have been a smashing success of a season if Matthew Stafford had stayed healthy. His peaks outnumbered his valleys with Stafford, but then he suffered through David Blough and Jeff Driskel in the second half of the season.
Offseason Dynasty Advice: Golladay’s growth this year was overshadowed by the team’s regression, so he might be undervalued on the trade market, but is more likely going to be very tightly held by teams.
2020 ADP Outlook: Early drafts are valuing him at his first half production level as a low WR1 available in the third round, which sounds about right.
14. Tyler Lockett, SEA (ADP: WR18)
Lockett was solid with two spectacular peaks in the first half of the season, and then got hurt in Week 10, wasn’t right until Week 15, and bombed in Week 16. There was a lot bigger season there for him if he stayed healthy, or if the Seahawks weren’t so committed to the run.
Offseason Dynasty Advice: Lockett’s best football could be ahead of him, or he could be a perennial tease. This is a good “take a stand” offseason for both buyers and sellers.
2020 ADP Outlook: Early drafters are skeptical and letting him fall to the sixth round. I would take that bet.
CONSISTENT STRONG WR2
15. DJ Moore, CAR (ADP: WR26)
Moore only had his starting quarterback for two games, but he was actually better with Kyle Allen than he was with Cam Newton, and came on for fantasy just as the team’s season was slipping away. He was a consistent presence in the pass offense getting open on short and intermediate routes with a quarterback who was a suspect downfield passer.
Offseason Dynasty Advice: He’s untouchable, which means maybe you can get someone to grossly overpay for him.
2020 ADP Outlook: He’ll hover around the late second/early third, which could be overly optimistic pending the Panthers quarterback situation.
16. DeVante Parker, MIA (ADP: WR63)
What a difference a head coach makes. Parker riffed with Ryan Fitzpatrick and feasted with pass-happy playing from behind game scripts, peaking at the end of the season. He had a goose egg in Week 2 and a concussion-shortened game, but finished the season with an extension and signature performance against Stephon Gilmore in a game that primed the death star for its explosion.
Offseason Dynasty Advice: Parker could be a flash in the pan, but if he carries over his 2019 performance, he’ll be undervalued in offseason trades. Get a price check.
2020 ADP Outlook: Maybe it’s the stink of Miami, but he is going two rounds or more after receivers he scored similarly to last year. That’s an easy yes.
INCONSISTENT STRONG WR2
17. Robert Woods, LAR (ADP: WR16)
Woods was a nonfactor for fantasy more often than he mattered in the first half of the year and he missed a game for personal reasons in the second half of the year, but he finished very strong.
Offseason Dynasty Advice: Woods is still in his prime turning 28 this offseason and his 2019 performance was underappreciated. He’s a slight buy.
2020 ADP Outlook: Woods is going a round after Cooper Kupp, usually in the fifth, which seems like the better value of the two Rams receivers.
18. DJ Chark, JAX (ADP: Undrafted)
No player improved more in one offseason than Chark, who turned from a possible one-note speedster bust into a well-rounded acrobat. He was up and down with the Jaguars offense, but his strong games were week winners even though there were more duds as the Jaguars offense stalled out more often the farther we got into the season. He ended the year banged up and a non-factor from Week 15 on.
Offseason Dynasty Advice: If he gets a quarterback, Chark could become a strong WR1 sooner than later. He might still be worth buying at an inflated value.
2020 ADP Outlook: The fact that you can get Chark in the sixth round of early drafts is a sign that he’s being underestimated.
19. TY Hilton, IND (ADP: WR17)
Hilton was a second-round pick before Andrew Luck announced his retirement, dropping Hilton to the fourth round or later. For the first three weeks it looked like Hilton would be a huge hit as Jacoby Brissett was adequate or better, then Hilton got hurt and missed a game, returned for a so-so three-game stretch, and finally struggled to get, stay, and make an impact on the field for the second half of the season. We’ll chalk this one up to injury more than any erosion in Hilton’s abilities.
Offseason Dynasty Advice: If you think 2019 is a sign Hilton is breaking down, sell, if you think it was an aberration, buy. Quarterback uncertainty doesn’t seem to be a big deal after his strong start last year.
2020 ADP Outlook: Hilton has been a forgotten man in early drafts falling as far as the 7th-8th round. That’s an easy yes and sign that he might be cheaper than you think in dynasty leagues.
CONSISTENT SOLID WR2
20. Michael Gallup, DAL (ADP: WR45)
Gallup’s up arrow out of 2018 was pointing even high when the 2019 season was unveiled. He did miss two weeks with a minor knee issue early in the season and a had a few scoring lulls, but finished on a high note and had a very similar weekly scoring average to teammate Amari Cooper when the dust settled, while playing better than his numbers indicated.
Offseason Dynasty Advice: He should be jealously guarded and a player you’re willing to overpay for if he is available.
2020 ADP Outlook: Gallup is going in the seventh round, which sounds like an autopick in offseason best ball drafts.
21. John Brown, BUF (ADP: WR55)
Brown riffed with Josh Allen immediately. His season began with a ceiling game and he blew up again vs. Miami, but was mostly very consistent in PPR leagues and a reliable double digit scorer until a dip in Weeks 13 and 14.
Offseason Dynasty Advice: Win now teams should pursue Brown who is turning 30 this offseason but still has a lot of good football left in him. Rebuilding teams shouldn’t give him up for too little.
2020 ADP Outlook: Brown in the eighth round? Sign me up.
22. Calvin Ridley, ATL (ADP: WR22)
Ridley’s first half of the season was promising but nauseating at times from a fantasy standpoint. He came on to string together four WR1 level games in a row before an injury ended in his season in Week 14.
Offseason Dynasty Advice: Ridley isn’t as ballyhooed as he should be and if he can stay healthy a breakout season is coming. Do a price check.
2020 ADP Outlook: His fifth round ADP indicates some optimism from the fantasy public, but perhaps not enough.
23. Jarvis Landry, CLE (ADP: WR27)
Landry was at least the most valuable fantasy receiver in Cleveland, which was a shock. He moved the needle with three ceiling games and didn’t have a true lineup killing game, hitting double digits twice as often as he fell below them despite being in an unstable offense and playing with a hip injury for the whole season.
Offseason Dynasty Advice: Landry won’t turn 28 until midseason. He’s not having surgery on his hip issue, which could be seen as reassuring or worrisome depending on whether you think the choice is wise. He’s a hold and possibly a buy.
2020 ADP Outlook: Landry is going in the seventh round of early drafts, which doesn’t seem to give him the respect he should have earned last year.
INCONSISTENT WR2
24. Tyler Boyd, CIN (ADP: WR23)
Boyd had four duds, four WR1 peak games (including a 30+ week winner in Week 16) and six double games. You’ll take it if you rode him through the stormy seas of the Bengals offense.
Offseason Dynasty Advice: Boyd posted better numbers than perceived in this morass of an offense and he’s about to get Joe Burrow. He’s a buy.
2020 ADP Outlook: He is consistently available in the sixth round, which is cheaper than 2019 and yet another very reasonable proposition in best ball drafts.
25. AJ Brown, TEN (ADP: Undrafted)
Brown was too inconsistent and prone to duds to trust with Marcus Mariota, but like the rest of the offense, he came alive with Ryan Tannehill and finished the fantasy season with an elite WR1 stretch during the fantasy playoffs.
Offseason Dynasty Advice: Don’t even ask for him in a trade. It *might* be the right move to deal him simply because you might be able to get top 10 wide receiver value for him.
2020 ADP Outlook: You’ll probably have to take him in third, or possibly fourth if you want him, which is a bit rich.
26. Marvin Jones, DET (ADP: WR39)
Jones was undervalued in 2019 drafts in hindsight even if we only give him credit for the four games over 13 PPR points because one was a four touchdown week winner and the other three were over 20 points. Otherwise he dwelled in the 9-13 point range with a couple letdown weeks before injury ended his season in Week 14.
Offseason Dynasty Advice: Jones isn’t too overpriced for a player turning 30 this offseason at 6.5 million, although he has clearly peaked and is a sell for rebuilding teams.
2020 ADP Outlook: You can get Jones in the double digit rounds of many early drafts, which is a no brainer in best ball leagues.
27. Stefon Diggs, MIN (ADP: WR13)
You can’t say Diggs play fell off in 2019, but his numbers were disappointing. He had a three-week stretch that was among the best of any during the season, but otherwise was hovering around uninspiring WR3/Flex level scoring with inconsistent target shares on a run-first team.
Offseason Dynasty Advice: Diggs is no longer an “it” player to acquire and will turn 27 during the 2020 season. He’s a hold with hopes that the ceiling games will come more frequently next season.
2020 ADP Outlook: You’ll pay a premium over 2019 numbers if you choose to take Diggs around his fifth round ADP, which is still two rounds below his 2019 cost.
CONSISTENT-ISH WR2
28. Courtland Sutton, DEN (ADP: WR42)
Sutton should get a purple heart considering the quarterback play he endured in 2019. He had only one game below eight PPR points, and five WR1 level 19+ point games. The fantasy season did finish with a lull in the fantasy playoffs or he would have been a strong WR2.
Offseason Dynasty Advice: No one that watched Sutton play should be willing to trade him this offseason.
2020 ADP Outlook: Sutton’s fourth round ADP in early drafts shows the well-founded optimism for his growth with Drew Lock next season.
29. Terry McLaurin, WAS (ADP: Undrafted)
McLaurin started 2019 with a bang and was a bonafide fantasy WR1 through three weeks. After missing a week with a hamstring issue, McLaurin was a disappointment from Weeks 5-13, with only one ceiling game, or game over 13 PPR points for that matter, but he finished strong with three straight 15+ PPR games in the fantasy playoffs.
Offseason Dynasty Advice: It is only going to get better from here. McLaurin shouldn’t be dealt unless someone vastly overpays for him.
2020 ADP Outlook: Add McLaurin to the 6th/7th round wide receiver best ball target list.
30. Adam Thielen, MIN (ADP: WR10)
Thielen was a solid WR2 with one big peak and valley through six weeks, then a Week 7 hamstring injury cut him down. He tried to return too quickly and was a nonfactor when he finally did get back on the field in Week 15.
Offseason Dynasty Advice: He’ll turn 30 before the season and is a good target for win now teams with the disappointment of 2019 still fresh in dynasty players’ minds.
2020 ADP Outlook: Thielen’s 5th/6th round ADP makes him the better target of the two Vikings receivers.
31. Christian Kirk, ARI (ADP: WR37)
Kirk got off to a solid start before missing three games with an ankle injury. He was solid again in his return and two weeks later blew up with a three-score game against the Bucs, but only contributed at a WR3/Flex level before saving his worst game of the season for Week 16.
Offseason Dynasty Advice: He’s a buy with this offense only improving in 2020.
2020 ADP Outlook: His 8th round price is very palatable considering the likelihood of growth in both his game and his surroundings.
32. Sterling Shepard, NYG (ADP: WR36)
The most memorable part of Shepard’s season was probably his five-week concussion absence after his second of the season, but when he wasn’t sitting out with head injuries, he was a high floor play who finished the season with two of his three best games in Weeks 15 and 16.
Offseason Dynasty Advice: The concussion worry will make him an intriguing buy after he played better than most realized.
2020 ADP Outlook: His 10th round ADP is low hanging fruit in early best ball drafts.
33. Golden Tate, NYG (ADP: WR51)
The payoff might not have been quite worth holding Tate through his four-game suspension, but it was close. Tate was actually a solid WR2 with some ceiling games mixed in after a slow return from his absence, but he missed Week 13 with his second concussion of the year and was again a dud upon his return. Tate finished the season with solid WR2 numbers again in Weeks 15 and 16.
Offseason Dynasty Advice: Tate will turn 32 this offseason and his sell high window has probably closed. Hope for him to get hot during the season to open another one if you are rebuilding and try to buy him for a cheap pick if you are in win now mode
2020 ADP Outlook: He’s an afterthought lasting well into the double digit rounds of early drafts and that doesn’t seem right.
PARTIAL SEASON WR3/FLEX PERFORMERS - TIER 1
34. Deebo Samuel, SF (ADP: WR59)
Samuel was a fantasy dud and banged up early in the season, but he leveled off as a consistent low WR2 with a high floor from Week 7 on, with some contributions as a runner.
Offseason Dynasty Advice: Only AJ Brown gained more value down the stretch in dynasty leagues. He won’t be available in trades.
2020 ADP Outlook: Yet another name to target at a reasonable 6th/7th round price.
35. Breshad Perriman, TB (ADP: Undrafted)
Perriman was quiet and banged up through the first half of the season, but took advantage of injuries to Chris Godwin and Mike Evans to earn a big payday this offseason and help fantasy teams score one of their own with a WR1 scoring stretch from Weeks 13-16.
Offseason Dynasty Advice: Perriman’s late season surge hasn’t been factored enough into his value. He had the look of a player who “got it” and should be targeted as a buy this offseason.
2020 ADP Outlook: Perriman’s ADP is in the teens rounds, which is a slam dunk in best ball drafts.
36. Robby Anderson, NYJ (ADP: WR31)
Anderson suffered through the Adam Gase experience for most of the season, but came on from Weeks 12-16 to post consistent enough numbers to be trusted in lineups and even help teams get to and advance in the fantasy playoffs.
Offseason Dynasty Advice: He’ll be the most coveted free agent receiver assuming Amari Cooper stays in Dallas. Remember what losing Gase did for Devante Parker? Anderson is a strong buy with some volatility due to team uncertainty.
2020 ADP Outlook: Anderson is hovering in the 9th-10th round range which is a no brainer considering his upside if he lands somewhere like Philadelphia.
37. Diontae Johnson, PIT (ADP: Undrafted)
Johnson had a mini-breakout with Mason Rudolph in Weeks 3-4 and then struggled with inconsistency along with the rest of the offense until he broke out for good in Weeks 14-16 and was basically a WR1 during the fantasy playoffs.
Offseason Dynasty Advice: Johnson is a rising star but his team shouldn’t be willing to deal him for less than well over market value. Do a price check just in case.
2020 ADP Outlook: Johnson is going in the 11th-12th round range in early best ball drafts, which is affordable considering his significant upside with Ben Roethlisberger’s return.
38. Jamison Crowder, NYJ (ADP: WR52)
Crowder was cheap enough in drafts that his 2019 was actually a modest fantasy success. He was on the bench for a Week 1 hit, then a dud as Sam Darnold missed time, then up and down until a strong WR1 three-week stretch from Weeks 9-11. Weeks 12-14 were beyond worthless, but Crowder rallied with a huge Week 15 and adequate Week 16.
Offseason Dynasty Advice: He has been written off by some, but should be the top returning receiver for the Jets. He’s a strong buy.
2020 ADP Outlook: A 12th round ADP for Crowder in early drafts is like taking candy from a baby.
39. Darius Slayton, NYG (ADP: Undrafted)
Corey Coleman’s preseason ACL tear opened the door for Slayton to have a big role as a rookie, but not before he overcame a twice-injured hamstring to finally take the field in Week 3. He had more duds than hits in his first seven games, but then came on with two week-winning performances in the next four games before giving us a goose egg while ailing in Week 16.
Offseason Dynasty Advice: It’s hard to tell if his breakout was noticed among a cavalcade of impressive rookie wideouts, so he could be available for cheaper than you think.
2020 ADP Outlook: A 10th round ADP and deep ball prowess makes Slayton an ideal best ball target.
40. James Washington, PIT (ADP: WR46)
Washington’s breakout season seemed to be in view when his college quarterback Mason Rudolph became the starter in Week 2, but he made more noise with Delvin Hodges in a WR3/flex scoring stretch from Weeks 9-16 that included three WR1 games during Weeks 10-13.
Offseason Dynasty Advice: Washington’s step forward in development was overshadowed by a Steelers offense that featured the worst quarterback play in the league. He’s worth a price check.
2020 ADP Outlook: Washington is available as a very late round in early best ball drafts, which is an autopick with Ben Roethlisberger coming back.
41. Alshon Jeffery, PHI (ADP: WR25)
2019 was a season of injuries for Eagles wide receivers. Jeffery’s story fit the narrative. He was strong in Week 1, hurt in Week 2, out in Week 3, decent to good in Weeks 4-7, a dud in Weeks 6-8, out in Weeks 10-11 after the bye, a surprise big hit in Week 12, and then out for the year after getting hurt again in Week 13.
Offseason Dynasty Advice: Jeffery turns 30 this offseason and it appears his body is breaking down. He’s worth making a lowball offer if you are a win now team.
2020 ADP Outlook: The fantasy world has moved on from Jeffery if his 12th or later ADP in early drafts is any indication.
42. Will Fuller, HOU (ADP: WR33)
Keke Coutee was no threat to Fuller’s value in 2019, but his own injury issues more than did a number on his worth to fantasy teams. He was quiet through four weeks, put up the best wide receiver game by anyone all season in Week 5, then got hurt in Week 7, had a triumphant return in Week 12 only to get hurt again the following week, rinse, repeat.
Offseason Dynasty Advice: His “Mr. Glass” reputation will make him cheap in trades, but it’s probably best to skip the chance to add him.
2020 ADP Outlook: He’s still going in the 10th round, which is reasonable, especially in best ball leagues.
CONSISTENT WR3/FLEX
43. DK Metcalf, SEA (ADP: WR56)
Metcalf was rarely a lineup liability (unlike his teammate Tyler Lockett), but he had only one ceiling game and a zero in Week 16.
Offseason Dynasty Advice: He’s just growing into his paws and should be as untouchable as AJ Brown even though he isn’t.
2020 ADP Outlook: A 5th/6th round ADP indicates the right amount of optimism, which means he’s not a slam dunk pick.
44. Odell Beckham Jr CLE (ADP: WR5)
Was there a more frustrating wide receiver to carry in 2019? If we knew he was playing with a hernia all year perhaps we would have handled lineup decisions differently. Beckham had a big play in Week 2 to pull us in, but there wasn’t another true ceiling game from him for the rest of the year. He produced enough each week to keep us hanging on, but never paid off.
Offseason Dynasty Advice: Make an obligatory buy low offer just to see where his team stands.
2020 ADP Outlook: You can get Beckham in the third round of drafts. I would do it with a clear explanation for why he was subpar in addition to the morass of an offense that he played in.
45. Cole Beasley, BUF (ADP: WR68)
Like John Brown, Beasley was on the same page with his new quarterback in his new offense right away and rarely fell below nine PPR points, but his peaks were modest and his worst game of the year came in Week 15 after his best three-game stretch of the season.
2020 ADP Outlook: Beasley is available late in early best ball drafts and should be targeted.
46. Mike Williams, LAC (ADP: WR24)
Williams flashed the talent that got him drafted in the top 10 and made him a fashionable reach with projected growth in year three, but the touchdowns never came, the targets were meager and his fantasy value suffered for it. He missed Week 4 with an injury and while Williams was usually putting up at least 50 receiving yards, he only warmed up in Weeks 13-15, far too late to help fantasy teams that invested a pick in him.
Offseason Dynasty Advice: The Chargers have quarterback uncertainty looming, but Williams down fantasy season doesn’t really correspond to a stall in his growth. This is a good time to buy if you have been coveting him.
2020 ADP Outlook: Williams will be cheaper than last year, going in the 8th-10th round although the likely downgrade in quarterback more than justifies the drop in value.
47. Larry Fitzgerald, ARI (ADP: WR40)
Fitzgerald’s best game of the year came in Week 1 and he was startable in deep leagues through Week 6 before he had back-to-back lineup killing duds. Weeks 10 and 11 brought a brief revival, but he never really got back into our circle of trust.
2020 ADP Outlook: Even though he has been confirmed to return in 2020, Fitzgerald is an afterthought in early best ball drafts, which doesn’t seem right. Target him late.
PARTIAL SEASON WR3/FLEX PERFORMERS - TIER 2
48. Emmanuel Sanders, DEN/SF (ADP: WR35)
Sanders was written off after he tore his achilles in 2018, then made a strong recovery over the summer and zoomed up draft boards. He was a strong WR1 to start the season, then a lineup killer before the Broncos freed him in a trade. He once again came out of the gate hot with his new team, then languished for the rest of the season, save for a one week outburst with the rest of the offense against the Saints.
2020 ADP Outlook: Sanders is in the teens in early drafts, which seems like a proposition to take up even though we don’t know where he will play or how big his role will be.
49. Anthony Miller, CHI (ADP: WR53)
Miller failed to get to cruising altitude for the first 10 weeks of the season, but was elevated and did some elevating of his own when the Bears pass offense and Mitchell Trubisky came alive from Weeks 11-15. The last laugh came from teams facing Miller in Week 16 as he and the Bears pass offense shrunk back to earlier meager levels.
Offseason Dynasty Advice: Miller looked like a player developing on schedule and projected to be a long term starter when he finally got going, but he is still stuck with a limited quarterback which could make him a solid buy this offseason.
2020 ADP Outlook: Like most of the younger names at wide receiver, Miller’s ADP is more than reasonable around the 12th.
50. Curtis Samuel, CAR (ADP: WR41)
Samuel looks like a decent WR3/Flex when you see his season totals, but he was maddeningly inconsistent, with no more than two startable games in a row at any point in the season.
Offseason Dynasty Advice: His disappointing season can only be chalked up to quarterback play, as Samuel was getting open at will downfield only for Kyle Allen to miss him or not see him. He’s a strong buy that should be at the top of your offseason shopping list.
2020 ADP Outlook: Write Samuel in the 10th/11th on your draft plan in pen as long as he stays in that range which has been established in early best ball drafts.
51. Juju Smith-Schuster, PIT (ADP: WR7)
Smith-Schuster’s season was frustrating to say the least. He was a decent WR2/WR3 through the quarterback change after three weeks, then alternated duds and WR1 weeks for a month before fizzling out, missing four games with a knee injury, and then picking up where he left off with worthless games in Weeks 16 and 17.
Offseason Dynasty Advice: Smith-Schuster was untouchable last offseason. He’ll have company in the Steelers passing game this year, but he’ll also have a viable quarterback. He’s still only 23. It’s probably a good moment to get a price check.
2020 ADP Outlook: He’s available in the third round of early drafts, but so are Odell Beckham and Keenan Allen.
52. Preston Williams, MIA (ADP: Undrafted)
Williams was flirting with fantasy relevance throughout the first half of the season, neither a lineup asset nor a liability until his breakout game in Week 9 that ended with a cruelly timed ACL tear.
Offseason Dynasty Advice: Williams appears to be ticketed for the big time, so this might be your last chance to get him.
2020 ADP Outlook: Williams is an attractive upside pick in the 10th round or later, although DeVante Parker’s breakout might cap his short term ceiling.
53. Sammy Watkins, KC (ADP: WR34)
At first glance, Watkins 2019 looks like a joke the fantasy gods played on us. He had one of the best wide receiver games of the year in Week 1 and then hovered around low WR3/Flex scoring while supposedly primed to reign over fantasy leagues while Tyreek Hill was out. After missing a couple of games with his annual hamstring injury, Watkins came back with a three-game stretch of borderline relevant games and then failed to top 10 PPR points for the last six games of the season.
Offseason Dynasty Advice: It seems Watkins is never going to fulfill his considerable potential because of injuries, although he’s going to 27 in August and he’s cheap enough now that you might make a what the heck trade or two for him.
2020 ADP Outlook: Early drafts are letting Watkins fall well into the double digit rounds. I won’t fault anyone for taking that risk in a best ball league.
54. Brandin Cooks, LAR (ADP: WR15)
The Rams wide receiver going off of the board first in 2019 drafts was clearly the least valuable when the season ended. After a slow Week 1 he was actually a solid start through Weeks 2-4, but only eclipsed 10 PPR points once for the rest of the season, which included a two-game absence that felt like it could have been a lot longer after he suffered his second concussion in less than a month.
Offseason Dynasty Advice: Fantasy players have given up on Cooks even though he’ll be 26 when the season starts. Make a lowball offer on him and see how it goes.
2020 ADP Outlook: You’ll need to spend around a 10th to get Cooks in drafts, which is a modest price, but Robby Anderson is the better target in that round.
55. Marquise Brown, BAL (ADP: WR67)
If you drafted Brown and plugged him in against a suspect Miami defense in Week 1, you were rewarded with a massive game on about 10 snaps. He had a solid game in Week 2 to induce further starts, but wasn’t 100% at any point in the season and failed to put two good games together for the rest of the season.
Offseason Dynasty Advice: Perhaps this will just be how his career goes, but the chance that he takes a big step forward with better health next year is strong and reason to overpay for him in dynasty leagues this offseason.
2020 ADP Outlook: Brown is going in the 7th-9th round, which once again is reasonable. An early 2020 draft strategy of targeting wide receivers in the 6th-10th round is coming into focus.
56. Dede Westbrook, JAX (ADP: WR32)
Westbrook was relevant for six of the first seven weeks while the Jaguars offense was somewhat productive, but got hurt in Week 8 and missed Week 9. He did have back-to-back good results in Weeks 12 and 13 but otherwise floundered with the Jaguars offense in the second half of the year.
2020 ADP Outlook: Westbrook will go in the late rounds and while he’s a defensible pick there, he’s not a preferred target.
57. Mecole Hardman, KC (ADP: WR60)
Why Hardman wasn’t used more in the second half of the season will be one of the great 2019 unsolved mysteries. He was relevant in three of the four weeks Tyreek Hill missed, continued to be on the fringe of relevance for three weeks after Hill returned, and then was barely used. Shrug.
Offseason Dynasty Advice: Check to see if his team is foolish enough to deal him with Hardman’s role clearly growing in 2020.
2020 ADP Outlook: Reserve a 10th round pick for him, although that number will get smaller once personnel moves clarify that Hardman will be a bigger part of the offense next season.
SPOT STARTERS
58. Randall Cobb, DAL (ADP: WR78)
Cobb only missed one game this year and looked as good as he has in a while, even putting together back-to-back 20+ point games in Weeks 10-11. We’ll see what the 2020 free agent market holds for him.
59. Greg Ward, PHI (ADP: Undrafted)
Ward contributed to fantasy lineups in Weeks 15 and 16 when he was the last healthy wide receiver on the Eagles roster. He should have a secure spot on the 53 for 2020.
60. Steven Sims, WAS (ADP: Undrafted)
Sims looked like a core piece of the Washington passing game in the making with a strong finish in Weeks 15 and 16. Kudos if you counted on him in your fantasy championship.
61. Russell Gage, ATL (ADP: Undrafted)
Gage settled in as a solid play while Austin Hooper was out and later when Calvin Ridley’s season was over.
62. Auden Tate, CIN (ADP: Undrafted)
Tate leveled off as an adequate WR3/Flex for a six-week stretch after winning a spot in the starting lineup, but became unusable when Ryan Finley took over and then missed the last three games of the year with an injury. He’s still a good dynasty hold with the possibility that AJ Green walks in free agency.
63. Chris Conley, JAX (ADP: Undrafted)
Conley had three sets of back-to-back productive weeks: 1-2, 7-8, and 15-16, but his and his offense’s inconsistency made it impossible to trust him enough to harvest the value. Nothing came of his reunion with Nick Foles and he’s unlikely to play with Foles in 2020.
64. Taylor Gabriel, CHI (ADP: WR76)
Gabriel had a massive Week 3, then missed two games with a concussion. He returned to be a viable replacement level WR3/Flex from Weeks 8-11 before missing the last five weeks with a second concussion
65. Danny Amendola, DET (ADP: Undrafted)
Believe it or not, Amendola was only 11 yards short of a career high in 2019. He started off the year with a bang against Arizona and posted back-to-back good results in Weeks 7-8 before Matthew Stafford’s back injury took the wind out of the offense’s sails.
66. Kenny Stills, HOU (ADP: WR58)
Will Fuller’s injury was supposed to open the door to fantasy relevance for Stills on his new team with his new quarterback, but he missed two games with a hamstring injury and only became semi-consistent from Weeks 13-16
67. Albert Wilson, MIA (ADP: WR66)
Wilson wasn’t really healthy until late in season, but once he was, he posted replacement level WR3/Flex numbers in four of five games between Weeks 12-16, with his best result in Week 16.
68. Nelson Agholor, PHI (ADP: WR79)
Agholor had two elite WR1 games in Weeks 2-3 after the Eagles lost their top two receivers and then struggled with inconsistency and injuries for the rest of the season.
69. John Ross, CIN (ADP: Undrafted)
Ross exploded in Week 1, got a big garbage time play in Week 2 and then resumed his usual stay on the injury report before coming back to post a good Week 16 result.
70. Demarcus Robinson, KC (ADP: Undrafted)
When Tyreek Hill went down, few had Robinson on their waiver wire target list, but Robinson defied the lack of expectations with a 35+ point game. His next game was a solid contribution and then he failed to post a double digit point game for the rest of the season. He’ll be a free agent this offseason.
71. Josh Gordon, NE/SEA (ADP: WR30)
Gordon hit in Week 1 and was decent in Weeks 3 and 5 as the Patriots had their share of the Antonio Brown drama before getting their share of the Gordon drama when they released him. The Seahawks brought him aboard and Gordon was beginning to regain form when he was suspended yet again.
ONE HIT WONDERS
72. Antonio Brown, NE (ADP: WR9)
Brown looked good in his one game and could have had a lot bigger afternoon. The rest is history.
73. Desean Jackson, PHI (ADP: WR49)
Jackson’s union with Carson Wentz was as explosive as anyone could have hoped and then he suffered a hernia and didn’t have surgery for over two months following an unsuccessful attempt to return. He’ll be available in the late rounds of 2020 drafts.
74. Phillip Dorsett, NE (ADP: Undrafted)
At one point it appeared Dorsett might be an answer to the Patriots wide receiver problem. He was a huge hit in Week 1, and had a few flashes of relevant games in isolation after that, but his role shrunk as the season went on even though the number of viable options at wide receiver did too.
EMERGENCY PLAYS
75. Demaryius Thomas, NYJ (ADP: WR70)
Thomas, like his former teammate Emmanuel Sanders, came back successfully from an achilles tear, but he was marooned in an Adam Gase offense.
76. Allen Lazard, GB (ADP: Undrafted)
Lazard was an Aaron Rodgers favorite and the closest thing the Packers had to a #2 receiver this year.
77. Corey Davis, TEN (ADP: WR38)
Davis actually had a couple of 20 point games, but never sustained any momentum in the Titans low volume passing game.
78. Adam Humphries, TEN (ADP: WR65)
Going from a high volume to a low volume passing game killed Humphries value.
79. Marquez Valdes-Scantling, GB (ADP: WR44)
Valdes-Scantling had a couple of big plays to rekindle the strong hope of a breakout from the offseason and preseason but his inconsistency eventually marginalized his role in the passing game.
WASTED PICKS
999. Devin Funchess, IND (ADP: WR62)
Funchess got hurt in Week 1 and didn’t take the field again even though there seemed to be an expectation that he would come off of injured reserve before the end of the season.
999. Keke Coutee, HOU (ADP: WR54)
Coutee got hurt in the preseason, eventually had a blip of productive games from Weeks 5-7, but then ended up in Bill O’Brien’s doghouse.
999. Parris Campbell, IND (ADP: WR77)
Campbell battled injuries through the preseason and regular season and never got a real chance to deliver on his offseason hype. He’ll be an offseason buy low if you wanted him but missed out on him in your rookie draft.
999. N’keal Harry, NE (ADP: WR61)
Harry went on injured reserve to begin the season and was only a small role player when he returned to the field despite a paucity of options at wide receiver for New England. He’ll be an offseason buy low if you wanted him but missed out on him in your rookie draft.
999. Geronimo Allison, GB (ADP: WR47)
Allison had a couple of decent games in Weeks 2 and 4, but inconsistency doomed him to a small role and an eviction from rosters by the end of the season.
999. Dante Pettis, SF (ADP: WR43)
Kyle Shanahan was serious about his disappointment in Pettis over the summer and the 2018 second-round never got a real shot at relevance, especially after the team dealt for Emmanuel Sanders. His dynasty price has never been lower.
99999. Donte Moncrief, PIT (ADP: WR48)
Moncrief had one of the worst games we’ve seen from a wide receiver in Week 1 and was thankfully barely heard from again during the season before being released.