You guys have a ton of articles.
This statement about Footballguys is a blessing but it can feel like a curse. Our staff delivers insights that change seasons for the better yet realistically, no fantasy owner has the time to read everything we publish in a week.
If this describes you, let me be your scout. Here are five insights from Footballguys articles that I find compelling for the weekend ahead. I'll share what should help you this week, touch on the long-term outlook, and sometimes offer a counterargument.
1. Clayton Gray's Players In the News
Because we have a ton of articles and features, Clayton Gray's weekly grouping of news by position and sorted by day throughout the week is a service with a great utility that I've never mentioned during the three years of writing this column.
If you one a thorough but succinct place to know about practice participation or stories with potential fantasy value, this is the place to go:
RUNNING BACK
*** Thursday Update *** RB Chase Edmonds (ARI) did not practice on Thursday.
*** Thursday Update *** RB David Johnson (ARI) practiced fully on Thursday.
*** Thursday Update *** RB Ito Smith (ATL) did not practice on Thursday.
*** Thursday Update *** RB Mark Ingram (BAL) practiced fully on Thursday.
*** Thursday Update *** RB Frank Gore (BUF) did not practice on Thursday (he was excused).
*** Thursday Update *** RB Christian McCaffrey (CAR) partially participated in Thursday's practice.
*** Thursday Update *** RB Aaron Jones (GB) practiced fully on Thursday.
*** Thursday Update *** RB Malcolm Brown (LAR) practiced fully on Thursday.
*** Thursday Update *** RB C.J. Ham (MIN) partially participated in Thursday's practice.
*** Thursday Update *** RB Alvin Kamara (NO) practiced fully on Thursday.
*** Thursday Update *** RB Alvin Kamara (NO) is fully expected to play this week, according to head coach Sean Payton.
*** Thursday Update *** RB LeVeon Bell (NYJ) partially participated in Thursday's practice.
*** Thursday Update *** RB James Conner (PIT) did not practice on Thursday.
*** Thursday Update *** RB Trey Edmunds (PIT) did not practice on Thursday.
*** Thursday Update *** RB Roosevelt Nix (PIT) did not practice on Thursday.
*** Thursday Update *** RB Benny Snell (PIT) did not practice on Thursday.
*** Thursday Update *** RB Chris Carson (SEA) partially participated in Thursday's practice.
*** Thursday Update *** RB Chris Carson (SEA) is on pace for 354 touches after getting 267 last year, according to ESPN's Brady Henderson. Pete Carroll scoffed when asked if that workload is a concern but also said Carson is the first player he checks after every game. "For being a lead -- he’s the lead guy right now and Penny keeps coming after him and Rashaad’s trying to take his snaps, which I'm thrilled to see that happen – I think he’s right on it. He’s handling all of the workload physically really well. Each week, he keeps coming back feeling good."
*** Thursday Update *** RB Kyle Juszczyk (SF) partially participated in Thursday's practice.
*** Thursday Update *** RB Raheem Mostert (SF) partially participated in Thursday's practice.
*** Thursday Update *** RB Derrius Guice (WAS) was activated from the Reserve/Injured list Wednesday, Nov. 6.
Matt's Thoughts: As mentioned above this is mostly straight, no filter info for your needs. I will mention that Chris Carson's story should not offer any concerns for fantasy managers with him on their rosters. Seattle drafted Penny and C.J. Prosise early enough that if the team eventually wears out Carson—not this year—sooner than fans hope, they'll roll with the young backs on its depth chart and perhaps acquire a third. It means they'll roll with Carson until it happens or he falters in some other way. Don't count on it in 2019 or 2020.
2. Ryan Hester's Trendspotting: Running Back Receiving targets
Do you like tables and charts? Check that...do you LOVE tables charts? If you do, this week's Trendspotting is for you. Ryan Hester's feature is normally heavy on the tables and charts.
This week? There are more charts in this baby than an auto graveyard in rural Georgia has cars.
If you've never been to Georgia, that's a lot of cars. Hester would love your feedback about this, so don't be shy: @RyanHester13
Of the charts that interested me most this week were Hester's lists of defenses that faced the most targets for running backs and the offenses that target their running backs the most in the league.
Below are the top-10 defenses in terms of how often running backs are targeted against them.
| DEFENSE | RB Tgt% | RB Rec% | RB Yd% |
| Chicago Bears | 25.5% | 26.7% | 20.2% |
| Washington Redskins | 25.3% | 26.7% | 20.1% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 24.9% | 28.9% | 20.6% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 24.4% | 25.1% | 17.3% |
| Indianapolis Colts | 24.4% | 25.8% | 16.8% |
| Tennessee Titans | 24.3% | 28.0% | 18.9% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 23.8% | 25.9% | 25.5% |
| Dallas Cowboys | 23.6% | 26.9% | 19.4% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 23.2% | 26.4% | 16.5% |
Below are the top-10 offenses in terms of how often these teams target their running backs.
| OFFENSE | RB Tgt% | RB Rec% | RB Yd% |
| Chicago Bears | 30.1% | 32.8% | 21.2% |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 28.4% | 36.2% | 25.3% |
| New England Patriots | 27.8% | 33.0% | 28.1% |
| Denver Broncos | 26.2% | 31.7% | 20.0% |
| New Orleans Saints | 26.0% | 29.6% | 21.1% |
| Green Bay Packers | 25.5% | 31.7% | 24.7% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 25.3% | 27.0% | 19.4% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 24.5% | 34.1% | 24.5% |
| Washington Redskins | 23.2% | 26.3% | 23.8% |
Matt's Thoughts: Looking at the schedule and comparing the charts, the Vikings and their target-rich offense for running backs face the Cowboys athletic but target-generous defense. Dalvin Cook is obvious, Alexander Mattison is bye-week obvious, and Ameer Abdullah is your desperation lottery ticket in large leagues where there's absolutely no conventional starter or contributor of note available.
However, before the two of you out there thinking about rolling with Abdullah do so, consider the tight end. It follows that many of the same units that are generous to running back targets will also be the same with tight ends. And as logic would have it, the Cowboys, Chiefs, and Bears are all significant benefactors for tight end targets. Irv Smith might offer you more than Abdullah in a PPR league, especially with Adam Thielen gimpy.
As for the other generous defenses on the list and the running backs who might help you. I'm not listing obvious starters but instead reserves, committees, and backs deep down the depth chart for those of you in this kind of need this week:
- J.D. McKissic and Ty Johnson against the Bears.
- Justice Hill might get some closeout time if Baltimore goes up big on Cincinnati and he's capable of taking a short pass a long distance.
- Malcolm Brown is healthy enough to practice and a solid receiver who might earn more looks than Darrell Henderson if he returns this weekend against the Steelers.
- Kalen Ballage gets the start for the Dolphins but rookie Myles Gaskin is the next man up and an excellent receiver who can be had for free. I have a 5-3 dynasty team that is depleted at running back and I only need one starter (45-man IDP team) and added him as a potential desperation starter this weekend.
- Tennessee and Kansas City are both generous on defense in this regard and face each other. Dion Lewis could give you something if desperate.
Good luck!
3. John Norton's Eyes of the Guru
I love IDP fantasy players because they're usually diehards who rarely lose interest in football at any point during the season. Norton's long-running feature is always full of nuggets worth your attention. This week is no different:
Those looking for help at safety may want to consider [Atlanta's] Damontae Kazee. He has played between 74% and 81% of the snaps in three consecutive games and seemed to have his role changed to that of a more traditional strong safety before the bye week. He had six solo tackles in each of the last two games and has a plus matchup on tap with the Saints.
Patrick Onwuasor had good numbers against the Patriots, going 6-2-1 with a forced fumble, but there are some major red flags. Baltimore played five or six defensive backs on nearly every snap, while no inside linebacker was on the field more than 42% of the time (28 snaps). That and a horrible matchup with the Bengals is more than enough reason to sit Onwuasor this week if at all possible.
If you are in a 14 or 16 team league with deep rosters and are in need of a warm body at linebacker that will at least be on the field, Vince Biegel might be an option. He has been on the field roughly 82% of the snaps over the last two games, which is second only to Jerome Backer. Biegel had a decent outing against Pittsburgh in Week 8 with four tackles and five assists but understandably did nothing against the Jets in Week 9. The Colts are a solid matchup for Linebackers in general.
The Jets just keep digging deeper in an effort to plug the hole at inside linebacker. Last week I mentioned the addition of James Burgess Jr/a> who played every snap against Miami, recording four tackles, two assists, and a safety for a solid fantasy line. They also moved outside linebacker Brandon Copeland to the inside where he too played every snap, but with a much bigger statistical contribution of 8-1-1 and a pass breakup.
Blake Cashman is now on IR, C.J. Mosley is not likely to play for a while, and Neville Hewitt was a limited participant in practice on Wednesday. The recent signing of Paul Worrilow was a move to add depth and could be a sign that the team is not expecting Hewitt back for another week or two. That could make Burgess and Copeland the starters for the next game or two and possibly longer. One thing we do not have to worry about with the Jets is their matchup. Everyone can move the ball of this defense, so if you are looking for help at linebacker, both Burgess and Copeland are worthy targets if Hewitt remains out.
Matt's Thoughts: Vince Biegel is an excellent athlete from Wisconsin who washed out of Green Bay early due to injuries. Kazee is an impact player for the Falcons when healthy. Copeland is absolutely worth your time.
4. Chad Parson's DFS Roundtable: Passing Shootouts
Every week, Parson's poses core questions with different teams involved for his series of roundtable panels. This week's Passing Shootouts has some information that caught my eye.
Which potential shootouts have the most potential for stacking and/or super-stacking this week? Are any landmines where you can see fading them can be the correct side?
- Cardinals at Buccaneers
- Falcons at Saints
- Panthers at Packers
Also, discuss the Packers backfield and its wild hot-hand weekly swings, do you trust the Tampa Bay or Arizona offense more considering both are suspect defenses and do you need to have Matt Ryan back this week to buy a Falcons stack or into the Atlanta offense in general?
Jason Wood: The Cardinals and Buccaneers should be a bonanza, and both Murray and Winston are top-5 choices at quarterback this week. The tricky part of the Buccaneers is Godwin and Evans are both premium-priced, and both have had massive games lately. It's hard to afford a super-stack of Winston/Evans/Godwin, but if you can make it work it's probably worth pursuing because ownership will be low. I think Winston/Godwin or Winston/Evans builds will be super popular, and might be worth fading in GPPs but are fine in cash.
Phil Alexander:
- Most Stacking Potential: Falcons at Saints - The Saints side of this one might be mega-chalk, but it's my highest priority team stack this week. New Orleans is at home, fresh off a bye, implied to score 32 points, and has an advantage over every level of Atlanta's defense. It's the perfect week to roll out Brees-Saints RB-Michael Thomas stacks. If you're stacking the most expensive Saints players, bringing it back with Julio Jones isn't easy. You can look to Calvin Ridley and Austin Hooper, who are both plenty affordable considering the high-scoring game environment.
- Possible Landmine: Cardinals at Buccaneers - Austin Lee's Normalized Strength of Schedule tool shows Arizona and Tampa Bay as the two best matchups for opposing quarterbacks over the last five weeks. In theory, we should see a shootout, but if one of these three games has the potential to go completely off the rails, it's this one. The Cardinals and Buccaneers are a pair of bad teams. Sometimes games between bad teams are just bad games. I'm not suggesting a stinkbomb is the most likely outcome. But if this game is projected for the most collective ownership on the slate, I'm not sure I agree with the crowd. Jameis Winston and Kyler Murray are a couple of high-variance quarterbacks.
Dan Hindery: The Panthers starting wide receivers remain underpriced. D.J. Moore will be understandably chalky on DraftKings at just $5,200. He has seen 8+ targets in four straight games and has seen 10+ targets in half his games this season. Curtis Samuel has seen 6+ targets in each of the last seven games. He has a great floor-ceiling combination for a guy who is priced at just $4,600.
Matt's Thoughts: I agree with Phil that the Buccaneers-Cardinals game is a seductive matchup that's most likely to be a potential trap for DFS players choosing the running games or the Cardinal's receivers beyond Christian Kirk. Mike Evans is likely the safest play of the matchup. If the Cardinal's make good on its threats, David Johnson as a receiver could be in store for a big day but coming off an injury, I'm not buying it as an immediate likelihood.
The Ted-Ginn-equals-Will-Fuller argument makes sense from a data perspective but the way the Texans used Fuller differs from how the Saints use Ginn. Still, the Falcons secondary gives up long vertical plays and that's Ginn's wheelhouse, so why not? The Panthers receivers are playing superb football.
5. Dan hINDERY'S dYNASTY tRADE vALUE cHART
Let's conclude this week with insights from Dan Hindery's updated monthly dynasty trade values.
-Young quarterbacks in Supeflex leagues are such boom or bust investments. Lamar Jackson and Mitch Trubisky had similar startup ADPs this summer. So too did Deshaun Watson and Baker Mayfield.
-Matthew Stafford and Derek Carr saw their dynasty stock fall precipitously last year. Both have bounced back strongly, especially Stafford. His 8.59 yards per attempt without much of a running game to keep defenses honest is an eye-opening number.
Matt's Thoughts: Dynasty players should reserve judgment (positive or negative) for at least a year and a half of starts for a young quarterback. Opposing defenses often play first-time starters straight-up and don't begin scheming against that player until late in the season or the following year. Young players can also get complacent with early success and think they have the NFL figured out or they undergo a scheme or personnel change that sets them back. An 18-month timeline that begins with that first start will keep you from getting too high or low on a quarterback that you draft.
Stafford and Carr have something in common this year—better offensive line play. Give veterans time and they will perform better.
Stafford is an obvious case because he's had few seasons as anything other than a top-10 fantasy talent. However, Carr and his history of pressure-induced faux-paws were more of a surprise because it's tough to predict players with his issues pull out of a career nosedive. Jon Gruden deserves credit for believing in Carr and giving his young veteran a boost of confidence and offensive line support to do his job.
THE 2017 CLASS
The story of the year at the running back position has been just how deep and talented the 2017 class now looks. In my most recent dynasty rankings update, I was astounded at how many members of the 2017 class ranked highly at the position. Here are the top backs from that class listed in order of their dynasty running back ranking:
- Christian McCaffrey (1)
- Alvin Kamara (3)
- Dalvin Cook (5)
- Leonard Fournette (8)
- Aaron Jones (9)
- Joe Mixon (10)
- Chris Carson (11)
- Austin Ekeler (15)
- James Conner (16)
That is 9 of the top 16 all from the same class…
We also have Marlon Mack, Tarik Cohen, Kareem Hunt, Jamaal Williams, and Matt Breida from that class who are also fantasy relevant.
For dynasty owners, this is more than just interesting trivia. All of these backs are going to be eligible for contract extensions in a few months, which leads to some questions:
- How many of these backs are going to holdout for new deals?
- How many are going to hit free agency in a year or two and land on a new roster?
- Of those hitting free agency, how many are going to be attractive enough targets that another team is going to want to make serious investments in them?
- With a lot of cheap, young, talented college backs set to hit the NFL in the next couple years, how does that impact the NFL roles and dynasty values of these backs?
If you are looking at your roster from a big picture, long-term perspective, these are some of the questions you should be asking yourself. Some of the above backs are going to have real staying power over the medium or long-term. Others from the list are likely to see their value take a major hit in the next year or two.
“Buy low, sell high” is easier said than done and requires taking some risk and making some tough choices. I suspect many of these 2017 backs are at or near the peak of their values. Hopefully, this at least provides some food for thought.
Matt's Thoughts: I'll take a stab at the buy-low, sell-high from this list...
Buy High: McCaffrey, Kamara, Cook, and Jones are talents in offenses where they're capable of delivering another 3-4 years of reliable starter value with elite upside. Kamara and Cook are in stable coaching situations whereas McCaffrey's play will make him the centerpiece of any offense. While risky, I'd consider buying high on Ekeler because I'll take the bet that he earns the lead role next year and the Chargers send Melvin Gordon packing.
Buy Low: Kareem Hunt and Matt Breida head this list for me. The Browns will likely showcase Hunt to an extent this year and trade him. Breida's injury history makes him an annual concern, but he's young and none of his injuries have hurt his performance when healthy enough to see the field. What if Breida's injuries can be linked to training and rehab that he can figure out? I've seen this happen before, so if I can get Breida as a buy low, I'd invest because he's a massive talent.
Tarik Cohen is worth a flier because he has top-15 PPR talent and his contract expires at the end of 2021. The Bears will either return to a smashmouth offense with David Montgomery as its engine or find a new quarterback for the offense it wanted to run with Mitchell Trubisky, which could restore Cohen's upside. Imagine Cohen in New Orleans or New England.
Sell High: Marlon Mack and Leonard Fournette are my candidates. Both are good backs but I have concerns about them sustaining their health long-term. Mack isn't a complete back and he's not as efficient as is totals suggest. Fournette has re-dedicated himself to the game but he's a punishing runner with chronic foot and ankle issues. I'd be actively selling him if he has another stretch of strong weeks that vault him up the scoreboard and bleed every bit of value I can get from him if he's not helping my team contend this year.
Hold: Mixon and Carson are the marquee holds for me. Mixon's talent is worth waiting to see what opportunity he could earn elsewhere in 2021. Carson is a punishing back on a good offense that uses him as its centerpiece. Unless I am seeking an option to put me over the top for one year, I'm not buying Carson because I see him as a year-to-year commodity due to his style of play, Russell Wilson's age, and the Seahawks offensive line. However, if I have Carson, I'm riding him until the wheels come off.
Ekeler is a hold based on the reasons mentioned if you're seeking a riskier buy-high option. Conner will likely give you a strong rebound season in 2020 with at least one more year working with Ben Roethlisberger. During that period, I'd try to sell higher than what you'd get right now. Conner is a good back but he's a year-to-year commodity due to Roethlisberger's age, the low chance that Mason Rudolph develops into a viable starter, and the lower likelihood of job stability for Mike Tomlin if the Steelers don't make a rookie quarterback a top priority soon.
As for Williams? I like his talent as a contributor who can start when needed but that's how the NFL will value him and I doubt the fantasy community values him as high as his current production. If you're trying to sell him high right now, you're only succeeding against novices.
Good luck this week, and may all of your bold calls come true.
