DraftKings GPP Domination: Week 17

Photo: USA Today Sports

KNOW YOUR ENEMIES

Ordinarily, this section is devoted to thinking like the majority of your opponents while building your lineups. Knowing how a large chunk of the field is likely to construct their rosters gives you the roadmap you need to move past them in the standings.

Week 17, however, is a different animal. Several teams will look to give their starters an extra week of rest ahead of the playoffs and more are playing out the string in meaningless games, which makes playing time harder to project. The range of possible outcomes for most teams becomes wider this week as a result.

Like any other week, you’ll need a low-owned player or two in your lineup to make a deep run in most GPPs, but it’s less important to focus on roster construction in Week 17 than it is to pay careful attention to the news cycle right up until lineups lock.

More so than any other week, Week 17 can reward preparation. On that note, consider these bullets:

• Familiarize yourself with the playoff scenarios so you know which teams need a win and which have more incentive to rest their starters. Players on teams in must-win situations should be prioritized along with those from teams who have been eliminated from playoff contention for weeks. In either case, their personnel rotations are unlikely to change and are therefore easier to project.

• As of this writing, you’ll want to avoid regular starters on Baltimore, Buffalo, and Minnesota, each of whom can’t change their playoff seeding with a win. It also seems likely the recently-eliminated LA Rams could rest their key players. Each team’s key backups must be considered but be careful not to over-expose yourself. We may think we know how these rotations will shake out, but we don’t have weeks of data to fall back on to support those hunches. Not to mention, many backups don’t usually run with the starters for a reason -- many of them are not very good.

TAKING A STAND ON THE CHALK

These players are the odds-on favorites to score the most fantasy points relative to their respective salaries. The problem is most of your opponents are well aware. Fading popular plays entirely for the sake of differentiating your lineups is rarely the best decision when multi-entering tournaments. Instead, decide how much exposure you are comfortable with for each player in comparison to their projected ownership percentage. Some suggestions on how to treat this week’s highest-owned players:

QB: Jameis Winston (vs. ATL, $6,600, 13% owned)

Both the Buccaneers and Falcons have been playing meaningless games for weeks, but haven’t given up on their respective coaching staffs. Week 17 should be business as usual for both teams, which is reflected by Vegas’ 48-point over/under (the second-highest on the slate). Winston has been a crowd favorite for most of the season due to his propensity to throw the ball from whistle to whistle. Despite having a realistic chance to become the first quarterback to ever throw for 30 touchdowns and 30 interceptions in the same season (he needs “only” two INTs this week), Winston leads the league in both pass attempts and passing yardage. Atlanta hasn’t been a standout matchup for opposing quarterbacks over the season’s second half but it shouldn’t prevent Winston from throwing for 300+ yards and multiple touchdowns. He should always be part of your tournament plans, even without Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, but we have to wonder if his ceiling isn’t lowered without both stud receivers in the lineup. Play him, but not as your heaviest quarterback exposure.

RB: Ezekiel Elliott (vs. WAS, $8,000, 26% owned)

It’s surprising to see three non-Christian McCaffrey running backs priced ahead of Elliott in a must-win home matchup against Washington’s run defense. The Redskins have been destroyed by enemy running backs in each of their previous three games. Aaron Jones (192 total yards and one touchdown), Miles Sanders (172 total yards and two touchdowns), and Saquon Barkley (279 yards and two touchdowns) were each able to reach their respective ceilings against Washington. Elliott easily has the highest rushing attempt projection on the slate and he’s been more involved as a pass-catcher lately, averaging 6.5 targets per game over the last four weeks. Anything short of 150 total yards and a touchdown would qualify as a mild shock given the opponent and implied game script (Dallas -11). This is what good chalk looks like.

WR: Julio Jones (@TB, $8,500, 16% owned)

Jones has combined for 35 targets, 300 receiving yards, and two touchdowns in two games without Calvin Ridley in the lineup. The only wide receiver we can count on for comparable volume and production is Michael Thomas ($9,900) and he costs almost as much as McCaffrey. It’s easy to make the case Jones is underpriced by $500-$700, especially considering the matchup against Tampa Bay. We’ve been attacking this secondary with wide receivers all season and now isn’t the time to stop. Jones’ median projection places him somewhere around a 7-100-1 receiving line (26 DraftKings points) and his ceiling is right there with Thomas’. He looks like a core play unless his ownership projection rises significantly by the weekend (which is possible). There are other high-end wide receivers in great spots who will go lightly owned.

TE: O.J. Howard (vs. ATL, $4,300, 13% owned)

In his first game without both Chris Godwin and Mike Evans in the lineup, Howard ran 39 pass routes and commanded seven targets. Both numbers finished behind only Breshad Perriman and Justin Watson on Tampa Bay, which makes Howard’s TE11 price tag a relative bargain. Howard shouldn’t need more than six or seven targets to get over on Atlanta, but it’s possible Winston looks his way more often this week. Since Week 13, the Falcons have allowed a 6-3-85-0 receiving line to Jared Cook, 10-5-57-1 to Ian Thomas, 17-13-134-0 to George Kittle, and 6-3-45-0 to Seth DeValve. DeValve’s success might be the most notable since only six teams have fewer tight end receiving yards than the Jaguars in 2019. Howard certainly merits some exposure, especially in Winston stacks and Tampa Bay-Atlanta game stacks, but tight end is usually where you should stray from the field and this week is no exception. Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith are available at about the same price and half the projected ownership. Do you believe Howard is twice as likely as either player to appear in a first-place lineup?

DST: Green Bay Packers (@DET, $3,000, 20% owned)

David Blough’s productive first half against the Bears on Thanksgiving day is a distant memory. Over his last three starts, Detroit has allowed 56% more fantasy points to opposing defenses than league average. The Packers defense gave Kirk Cousins all sorts of problems in a must-win division road game last week and are well equipped to do the same against Blough (and his 56% completion rate) in Detroit. How DraftKings managed to price Green Bay outside the top-12 DSTs in this spot is a mystery. They belong in at least 10% of your lineups.

MORE CHALK:

MID-RANGE OWNERSHIP VALUE

You won’t be sneaking these players past your opponents. But their projected ownership percentage is lower than the probability they will score more fantasy points than their salary implies. If you are multi-entering tournaments, raise your exposure higher than their ownership projection.

QB: Carson Wentz (@NYG, $6,100, 8% owned)

Wentz continues to lose passing-game weapons, yet remain productive for fantasy purposes. He’s thrown the ball at least 40 times in every game since Week 11, which has led to 22 or more DraftKings points in four consecutive games. The way to move the ball against the Giants is through the air, as Wentz himself exhibited during a 325-2-0 performance against New York in Week 14. Philadelphia is in the driver’s seat for the final playoff spot in the NFC East but they can control their own destiny with a win against the Giants. If Eagles head coach Doug Pederson’s game plan involves anything other than allowing Wentz to attack a secondary that just gave up 291 yards, three touchdowns, and no interceptions to Dwayne Haskins and Case Keenum, he deserves to miss the playoffs.

RB: Christian McCaffrey (vs. NO, $10,000, 16% owned)

The crowd’s desire to play Elliott and Kamara in the top price tier, combined with the stink of Will Grier, should conspire to suppress McCaffrey’s ownership. As was the case last week when he had a similar roster projection, you need to take the ownership discount on McCaffrey any time the field is willing to offer it. The Saints have a tough run defense but such details don’t matter to McCaffrey. In his last matchup against New Orleans, he piled up 133 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns. The stage looked too big for Grier in his debut last week, but he was plenty capable of checking down to McCaffrey, who caught each of his season-high 15 targets in the blowout loss to Indianapolis. The implied game script (New Orleans -13) sets up similarly for Carolina this week as McCaffrey chases a rare 1,000/1,000 rushing/receiving season.

WR: Michael Gallup (vs. WAS, $5,400, 11% owned)

Gallup had one of the most frustrating 11-target, 98-yard games in recent memory last week. His 14.8 DraftKings points were adequate, but we would have been looking at an all-out eruption had a 40+ yard deep ball not fallen through his hands or if Eagles cornerback Sidney Jones hadn’t batted away an end-zone target late in the game. The usage for Gallup was promising, however, headed into a matchup with Washington’s depleted secondary, especially with teammate Amari Cooper clearly playing at less than 100%. The Redskins placed cornerbacks Quentin Dunbar and Danny Johnson on IR this week, leaving nothing but street free agents and has-been, Josh Norman, to cover Gallup. Don’t be surprised if he was just a week late on reaching his ceiling.

TE: Hunter Henry (@KC, $4,500, 7% owned)

Opposing offenses target wide receivers on the lowest percentage of their pass attempts against Kansas City, but they target their tight end against the Chiefs at the league’s highest rate. Henry’s volume has been inconsistent over the second half of the season, but he was back up to seven targets last week (7-5-45-0), so it’s not like he’s been erased from LA’s game plan. If this game goes according to the implied script (Kansas City -8.5), Philip Rivers will be forced to throw the ball and it’s Henry who will enjoy the most favorable coverage of any Chargers pass-catcher. We’re getting Henry at a nice discount relative to his upside as well. This is his lowest salary since Week 8.

DST: New Orleans Saints (@CAR, $4,000, 4% owned)

The Saints are the ‘pay up to be contrarian’ play of the week. The crowd will be off them as one of only two defenses, along with the Patriots, priced at $4K or more. But as 11-point favorites against a Will Grier-led offense, their ceiling is as high as any DST’s on the slate. Stacking them with Alvin Kamara, or even Latavius Murray if you think Carolina gets boat-raced again, makes plenty of sense from a correlation standpoint.

MORE MID-RANGE OWNERSHIP VALUES

CONTRARIAN PLAYS

Hitting on one-or-more of these players will gain you massive leverage on the field. Due to their low ownership, the better they perform, the faster your roster separates in the standings. Keep in mind, using a 5%-owned player in only 2-out-of-10 lineups gains you four times more exposure than the field when you multi-enter a tournament. Be careful not to over-invest in these players, but you’ll need at least two from this ownership tier in your lineup for a shot at first place in most large-field GPPs.

QB: Gardner Minshew (vs. IND, $5,300, 1% owned)

Prior to feasting on the overwhelmed Grier last week, the Colts had given up 763 passing yards and eight touchdowns over their previous two games to the combination of Drew Brees and Jameis Winston. Minshew is a more comparable talent to Grier than he is to Brees, or even Winston, at this stage. But similar to last week’s Bengals at Dolphins matchup, Indianapolis and Jacksonville’s defenses are so bad that what should be an ugly game can instead turn into a shootout. The Colts have allowed 31% more fantasy points to enemy wide receivers than league average over the last five weeks, which sets up nicely for D.J. Chark, Chris Conley, and Dede Westbrook. If we like the spot for his receivers, it makes sense to play Minshew (the common thread between them) at three-to-four times his projected ownership.

RB: Justice Hill (vs. PIT, $4,600, 1% owned)

If you’re going to roll the dice on any player from a team with nothing to play for, make it Hill. Teammate Gus Edwards probably projects for a safer workload, but Hill is the more talented player. His blend of speed, burst, and versatility will lead to chunk plays with more opportunities and he should set a career-high in touches this week with Mark Ingram sidelined. Despite playing on only 18% of the snaps in Week 16, Hill touched the ball seven times for 50 yards and a touchdown. Assuming that workload translates into a ~40% snap share this week, nine carries and five or six targets are well within Hill’s range of outcomes and his overt athleticism makes it possible to overcome the tough matchup against Pittsburgh.

WR: A.J. Brown (@ HOU, $7,000, 4% owned)

Brown’s early-week ownership projection is surprising. Sure, he was shut down by elite cornerback Marshon Lattimore in last week’s loss to the Saints, but we should hardly hold that against him, especially since he was still able to rush for a 49-yard touchdown. Brown is the cumulative WR2 on DraftKings over the last five weeks and posted a 13-8-114-1 receiving line in this very matchup two weeks ago. Houston’s perimeter cornerbacks have struggled to defend the opposition’s WR1 all season. An answer for Brown didn’t suddenly materialize since Week 14. Ride the hot hand in a game that means more to the Titans than it does to the Texans, who need an unlikely Chiefs loss to change their playoff seeding, regardless of this game’s outcome.

TE: Jonnu Smith (@ HOU, $4,200, 1% owned)

As bad as Houston has been defending outside receivers, they’ve been even worse against tight ends. The Texans have allowed 87% more fantasy points than league average to the position over the last three weeks, which includes a 5-5-60-0 receiving line and 57-yard run from Smith in Week 15. Smith’s modest target volume leaves something to be desired but his big-play athleticism does not. He’s recorded a 40+ yard play in back-to-back games and scored a touchdown in two of his last three. Stacking Smith and Brown with Ryan Tannehill is the type of high-upside/low-owned combo we’re after in tournaments.

DST: Arizona Cardinals (@LAR, 2,400, 1% owned)

The Cardinals proved they’re still playing hard for Kliff Kingsbury in last week’s surprising upset of the Seahawks. LA, on the other hand, appears ready to throw in the towel and could bench or limit their key starters. Even if Jared Goff and co. play the entire game, the Cardinals have elite play-makers up front (Chandler Jones) and in the secondary (Patrick Peterson). Jones, in particular, is single-handedly capable of pressuring Goff (or Blake Bortles!) into a handful of poor decisions.

MORE CONTRARIAN PLAYS

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