DraftKings GPP Domination: Week 16

Photo: USA Today Sports

KNOW YOUR ENEMIES

To place near the top of a large field GPP, your roster has to stand out from the crowd in some way. Knowing which players will command the highest ownership is a helpful first step, but without the context of how those players can fit together under the salary cap, it’s difficult to project the type of lineups you’ll be up against most frequently.

Sometimes, the clearest path to creating a unique roster is to allocate more of your salary cap to the positions your opponents are not. To gain some insight into how most other entrants are likely to think as they construct their rosters, with the goal of building yours differently, consider these bullets:

• New Orleans at Tennessee is the only game on the main slate that opened with an over/under above 50 points, but the collective ownership of Saints and Titans players should remain low-to-moderate (outside of Michael Thomas). Without a true marquee game to stack, we should expect the crowd to chase players from heavy home favorites in Seattle, Atlanta, and LA (Chargers).

• Lamar Jackson ($8,000) remains atop the quarterback wishlist for most entrants but his price is finally bordering on prohibitive. Attractive matchups for Russell Wilson ($7,000), Dak Prescott ($6,400), and Matt Ryan ($6,200) should keep Jackson’s ownership in check. There will be less spending below $6K at quarterback, but Philip Rivers ($5,700), and the almost-free Will Grier ($4,300) give the crowd some inexpensive plays to consider.

• Christian McCaffrey ($10,100) will probably draw his usual 15-20% ownership, but it will be interesting to see how the crowd reacts to his potentially lower floor with Grier at quarterback. Due to the price savings, it’s likely Chris Carson ($8,500), Saquon Barkley ($8,300), and Leonard Fournette ($7,200) are the crowd’s main targets in the top running back tier. Juicy matchups for fairly-priced RB2s Joe Mixon ($6,600), Devonta Freeman ($6,000), and Melvin Gordon ($5,600) will make them common selections, but with Josh Jacobs out, DeAndre Washington ($4,000) will be a go-to option for those looking to spend more at wide receiver or tight end.

• Michael Thomas ($9,300) deserves to be priced above every non-McCaffrey running back and Julio Jones is coming off a 20 target, 41-point eruption in Atlanta’s first game without Calvin Ridley in the lineup. It’s safe to assume the majority of the field will be spending heavily on their WR1. If stock roster builds feature a quarterback over $6K, a high-end RB1, and Mixon at RB2, there won’t be much room left for a second high-end wide receiver. Matchup plays like DK Metcalf ($5,900), Tyler Boyd ($5,800), Christian Kirk ($5,600), Michael Gallup ($5,500), and Mike Williams ($5,000) should see their ownership inflated as a result. WR3 is a likely punt spot.

• Zach Ertz ($6,400) will be a popular standalone play at tight end, but there isn’t enough value available elsewhere to jam him into common roster builds. Instead, look for the crowd to zero in on one of several thriftier options at the position. Austin Hooper ($4,400) appears mispriced by about $1K headed into a cakewalk matchup against Jacksonville. Jacob Hollister ($4,200) gets the Cardinals, who have somehow failed to stop a tight end all season. And Hunter Henry ($4,700) and Mike Gesicki ($3,600) are each locked into solid target volume in great matchups vs.Oakland and Cincinnati, respectively.

• It can be argued Denver ($3,500 vs. Detroit) and Indianapolis ($3,300 vs. Grier in his first start) are the two defenses with the best matchups on the slate. As usual, there isn’t much reason to break the bank at the position. Looking lower, the Giants ($2,800) are another logical option in a matchup against mistake-prone rookie Dwayne Haskins.

TAKING A STAND ON THE CHALK

These players are the odds-on favorites to score the most fantasy points relative to their respective salaries. The problem is most of your opponents are well aware. Fading popular plays entirely for the sake of differentiating your lineups is rarely the best decision when multi-entering tournaments. Instead, decide how much exposure you are comfortable with for each player in comparison to their projected ownership percentage. Some suggestions on how to treat this week’s highest-owned players:

QB: Matt Ryan (vs. JAX, $6,200, 9% owned)

Ryan’s bargain price combined with his matchup against the floundering Jaguars defense should conspire to make him this week’s chalkiest quarterback. Atlanta is playing out the string, but as last week’s surprising road win in San Francisco proved, they haven’t stopped trying. The Jaguars’ defense, on the other hand, has long since given up. Prior to last week’s road win in Oakland, Jacksonville had lost four consecutive games by 20 or more points and allowed at least 28 points in each game. While opponents are doing most of their damage on the ground, the Jaguars have also allowed 18% more fantasy production to quarterbacks above their schedule-based expectation over the previous five games. Ryan and Julio Jones are set up nicely with the Falcons favored by a touchdown at home and implied to score about 27 points. Quarterback ownership will be flat enough that prioritizing Ryan shouldn’t work against you in tournaments. Make Atlanta stacks part of your game plan and differentiate your lineups elsewhere.

RB: Joe Mixon (@MIA, $6,600, 17% owned)

The lead running back playing against Miami has been chalky almost every week and Mixon will be no exception. Since Andy Dalton was reinserted into the starting lineup in Week 13, Mixon has averaged 25.6 touches per game, topping out at 28 in last week’s lopsided loss to New England. With over 135 rushing yards in back-to-back losses, it’s scary to think of what Mixon can accomplish against a soft defense in a game the Bengals should remain competitive in throughout. Only one out of five running backs who received at least 20 carries in a game against the Dolphins this season failed to exceed 100 rushing yards, and we have every reason to project Mixon for 20+ totes this week. His early-week ownership projection is reasonable enough to overweight the field. Begin to dial back your exposure if he’s closer to the 25% range by Sunday’s final update. There is still a significant chance this game is a clunker between two awful teams and a complete mess for fantasy purposes.

WR: Julio Jones (vs. JAX, $8,000, 15% owned)

Jones commanded an absurd 51% share of Atlanta’s targets in their first game with Ridley sidelined. While it would be silly to project Jones for 20 targets again any time soon, it wasn’t exactly a surprising result considering his only legitimate competition for volume comes from a tight end. With Jalen Ramsey already a distant memory, the Jaguars have struggled to prevent big passing plays. Only Detroit has allowed more passes of 25+ yards over the last five weeks than Jacksonville’s 14. Now that Jones has reclaimed his status as target hog, he’s a tough fade, especially at $1,300 less than Michael Thomas and only $400 more than Tyler Lockett. The only worry about Jones comes from the Falcons dominating on the ground, with their defense, or otherwise blowing the Jaguars out, which would limit his volume. But if these two teams played each other 100 times, it’s likely Jones returns value in at least 25% of those games.

TE: Austin Hooper (vs. JAX, $4,400, 20% owned)

Hooper has underwhelmed in two games since returning from an MCL sprain but with Ridley out and Mohamed Sanu traded weeks ago, Ryan has little choice but to target him six-to-eight times. Even if he doesn’t return to his early-season form, Hooper is simply priced too low. He’s exceeded a 4x multiple of his current salary in nearly half of his games played this season and Jacksonville’s defense could be the catalyst he needs to get back on track. We just watched another heavily-targeted tight end -- Darren Waller -- rack up over 100 receiving yards in one half against the Jaguars. In total, they’ve allowed 39% more fantasy points than league average to the position over the last three weeks while facing Waller, Hunter Henry, and O.J. Howard. Hooper is a fine play, but if he remains projected for double the ownership of the next closest tight end, the correct play is to fade him in tournaments. He’s playing at less than 100% Ryan may not need to lean on him if the Falcons are in a positive game script.

DST: Denver Broncos (vs. DET, $3,500, 9% owned)

The honeymoon for David Blough ended abruptly at halftime in his Thanksgiving day debut. In three starts, Blough has been sacked nine times, thrown five interceptions, and completed just 58% of his pass attempts. Denver is (correctly) favored by nearly a touchdown at home and the Lions have the worst running back depth chart in the league. Detroit will need Blough to throw if they want to move the ball, which can only end badly for the Lions. DST is the easiest position to pivot off the chalk most weeks but the Broncos are probably about $500 too cheap. Don’t come in with less than the field.

MORE CHALK:

MID-RANGE OWNERSHIP VALUE

You won’t be sneaking these players past your opponents. But their projected ownership percentage is lower than the probability they will score more fantasy points than their salary implies. If you are multi-entering tournaments, raise your exposure higher than their ownership projection.

QB: Dak Prescott (@PHI, $6,400, 8% owned)

Prescott will be among the most heavily-owned quarterbacks on the slate but a shoulder injury that kept him from throwing all week (as of Thursday) should put him behind Wilson, Jackson, and Ryan. Assuming his shoulder ends up a non-issue, Prescott warrants consideration as your top quarterback exposure. With six games of at least 28 Draftkings points this season, his ceiling is well-established and Prescott faces the beleaguered Eagles pass defense at the best possible time. Philadelphia’s last three games came against Ryan Fitzpatrick (365-3-1), Eli Manning in his first game since Week 2 (203-2-0), and Dwayne Haskins (261-2-0). Each of those underwhelming quarterbacks was able to connect on downfield splash plays with ease against the Eagles secondary. Philadelphia has no answers on the perimeter for Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup, who can be double-stacked with Prescott without choking your cap space.

RB: Christian McCaffrey (@IND, $10,100, 22% owned)

Full disclosure -- McCaffrey should probably be listed with the chalky plays. Slotting him in the mid-range is a bet the crowd shies away due to the uncertainty surrounding the Panthers offense with Will Grier at the helm. Maybe it’s wishful thinking, but Grier finished the preseason with an awful 65.3 passer rating and allowed Kyle Allen to breeze past him for No. 2 quarterback duties. The fact it took this long for the team to turn to Grier in a lost season is an indictment, and his lack of preparation with the starting unit sets him up for potential failure. If Grier’s stench drops McCaffrey’s ownership by even a point or two, it’s an edge worth grabbing. Grier probably isn’t ready for the NFL but that could mean he checks down to McCaffrey just as much, if not more than Allen did. Terrible quarterback play hasn’t held McCaffrey back from having the great fantasy season of all time. Why should now be the time to start worrying?

WR: Courtland Sutton (vs. DET, $6,200, 8% owned)

Now that Sutton is coming off back-to-back quiet weeks, it’s the perfect time to use him again in tournaments. The Broncos are implied to win at home by more than a touchdown against Detroit. While the game script favors Denver’s defense and running backs, Sutton is the most likely Broncos player to crash through his ceiling. Since Emmanuel Sanders was traded in Week 8, Sutton has commanded 26% of Denver’s targets, 40% of the team’s air yards, and is the only Broncos wide receiver to score a touchdown. With Noah Fant banged up, Sutton should be leaned on even more heavily against a Lions pass defense that has allowed 38% more fantasy points than league average to enemy wide receivers over the last five weeks.

TE: Dallas Goedert (vs. DAL, $4,100, 6% owned)

With Hooper and Jacob Hollister right next to him in price, Goedert should avoid the gaze of the crowd. Philadelphia’s wide receiver corps is decimated by injury and currently lacking NFL-caliber talent, which will allow Goedert to continue seeing heavy snaps and targets playing alongside Zach Ertz. Only five tight ends in the league -- Ertz, Travis Kelce, Tyler Higbee, Darren Waller, and George Kittle -- have accumulated more targets than Goedert’s 33 over the last five weeks. Like the other tight ends on that list, Goedert has the athleticism to make those targets matter for fantasy, especially in a matchup with the Cowboys, who sorely miss injured linebacker Leighton Vander Esch patrolling the middle of the field. Before Higbee piled up a huge stat line in garbage time against Dallas last week (14-12-111-0), the Bears’ no-name tight end platoon combined for seven catches and 92 yards against them in Week 14. At half of Ertz’s ownership and a fraction of his salary, Goedert is a quality leverage play.

DST: Baltimore Ravens (@CLE, $4,000, 7% owned)

A win over the Browns clinches home-field advantage (and a first-round bye) for Baltimore. Their upside couldn’t be higher against Baker Mayfield, who has thrown at least one interception in each of his previous four games. The Ravens have been one of the league’s premier defenses over the second half of the season. They generate pressure, force takeaways, and generally benefit from the positive game-scripts Lamar Jackson provides them with. Motivated and favored by double-digits, there isn’t much reason to expect a letdown. Pay up to be contrarian.

MORE MID-RANGE OWNERSHIP VALUES

CONTRARIAN PLAYS

Hitting on one-or-more of these players will gain you massive leverage on the field. Due to their low ownership, the better they perform, the faster your roster separates in the standings. Keep in mind, using a 5%-owned player in only 2-out-of-10 lineups gains you four times more exposure than the field when you multi-enter a tournament. Be careful not to over-invest in these players, but you’ll need at least two from this ownership tier in your lineup for a shot at first place in most large-field GPPs.

QB: Jacoby Brissett (vs. CAR, $5,900, 3% owned)

Indianapolis is favored by a touchdown at home vs. Carolina and implied to score nearly 27 points. The crowd will assume Marlon Mack is the best play for the Colts against Carolina’s 32nd ranked rush defense (DVOA). While Mack is in a great spot, don’t look past Brissett, who is also set up for success. He’s been mostly awful lately, but Brissett flashed a 25-point ceiling on several occasions earlier this season and Carolina’s defense should help him get on track. Russell Wilson threw for 286 yards on only 26 attempts against the Panthers last week. Prior to that, the only quarterback who failed to pass for over 300 yards against Carolina since Week 11 was Dwayne Haskins. With T.Y. Hilton’s snaps set to increase in his second game back from injury, we have a high-ceiling stacking partner for Brissett again. He’s every bit as likely to take advantage of the short fields Grier figures to provide Indianapolis as Mack and comes with less than half the ownership.

RB: Nick Chubb (vs. BAL, $6,900, 2% owned)

The Browns are 10-point home underdogs facing the league’s fifth-ranked overall defense (DVOA). There are valid reasons Chubb’s ownership is low but 2% is an overcorrection by the field. Chubb leads the entire NFL in rushing yards. He’s coming off a dominant performance in his last game against Arizona, yet DraftKings made him available at a $1,000 discount from last week’s salary (his lowest since Week 8). When these teams met in Week 4, Chubb had his best game of the season, rushing for 165 yards, three touchdowns, and a slate-breaking 42.3 DraftKings points. A similar result shouldn’t be expected in the division rematch, but a 25-point outing is within Chubb’s range of possible outcomes in this spot significantly more than 2% of the time. Dial him up at about 8-10% exposure.

WR: Albert Wilson (vs. CIN, $3,800, 3% owned)

Wilson has struggled with injuries all season but it appears he may finally be back to full health. After topping out around 50% of Miami’s offensive snaps in recent weeks, he was up to 80% in Week 15. He posted a modest 5-59-0 receiving line on eight targets against the Giants, which is a promising development headed into a home matchup with the Bengals. The crowd seems to like Ryan Fitzpatrick quite a bit in this spot and will look to stack him with DeVante Parker (which is completely defensible). But if Wilson continues to see similar target volume, he can end up a better play than Parker at about half the price and a fraction of the ownership. Even though Wilson’s targets aren’t typically of the downfield variety, his yardage upside is high in any given week due to his elite run-after-the-catch ability.

TE: Jared Cook (@TEN, $5,000, 2% owned)

Last week was the first time since Week 5 Cook failed to reach double-digit DraftKings points. He’s firmly entrenched as the no. 3 option in New Orleans’ passing game and gets a sneaky matchup against the Titans. Tennessee has allowed the ninth-most PPR points to opposing tight ends this season and has struggled every time they play a team that features the position. Saints at Titans is one of only two games on the slate with a 50-point over/under, yet no one seems to be looking at anyone in this game besides Michael Thomas. Cook is an excellent price pivot off more popular plays like Hooper and Hunter Henry.

DST: New York Jets (vs. PIT, $3,000, 3% owned)

The Jets defense isn’t good, which explains their low ownership. But do you know who else isn’t good? Devlin Hodges. Hodges was exposed by Buffalo’s defense last week when he took four sacks, threw four interceptions, and finished with a laughable 1.1 adjusted yards per attempt. Granted, the Jets defense might as well play in a different league than the Bills, but the one area in which they excel -- stopping the run -- happens to be Pittsburgh’s only strength on offense. It remains to be seen if Hodges only needs to manage this game for the Steelers to get a win and we just saw what happens when he’s forced to throw.

MORE CONTRARIAN PLAYS

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