DraftKings GPP Domination: Week 14

Photo: USA Today Sports

KNOW YOUR ENEMIES

To place near the top of a large field GPP, your roster has to stand out from the crowd in some way. Knowing which players will command the highest ownership is a helpful first step, but without the context of how those players can fit together under the salary cap, it’s difficult to project the type of lineups you’ll be up against most frequently.

Sometimes, the clearest path to creating a unique roster is to allocate more of your salary cap to the positions your opponents are not. To gain some insight into how most other entrants are likely to think as they construct their rosters, with the goal of building yours differently, consider these bullets:

• No games on the main slate (or even the primetime slates) have an over/under exceeding 48 points this week. Kansas City at New England is a marquee game for real-life purposes but probably won’t get piled on too heavily for DFS. The most popular team stacks are more likely to come from huge home favorites in Green Bay (-13 vs. Washington) and Houston (-9 vs. Denver). Full game stacks from Carolina at Atlanta (over/under 48) and Indianapolis at Tampa Bay (over/under 47.5) should also be common.

• With Patrick Mahomes II ($7,000) disappointing in each of his last two games and headed into a difficult matchup in Foxborough, the crowd will look to Lamar Jackson ($7,400) first at quarterback. Game environments will boost the popularity of other pricy options, including Aaron Rodgers ($6,800), Deshaun Watson ($6,500), and Jameis Winston ($6,400), but ownership at the position should be especially flat this week with matchup plays like Baker Mayfield ($6,300), Sam Darnold ($6,000), and Ryan Tannehill ($5,800) also available further down the board.

• Common roster construction hinges on Dalvin Cook’s availability in a cupcake home matchup against the Lions. While Cook (shoulder/chest) says he’s playing, we’ll have to stay glued to the news cycle for hints about his usage right up until kickoff. If it becomes clear he’ll be out or limited, Alexander Mattison ($4,500) becomes one of the chalkiest plays of the season. Playing Mattison would make spending on Christian McCaffrey ($10,300), one of the top quarterbacks, and a high-end WR1 much easier. Should Mattison remain in his usual backup role, we may be looking at more Patrick Laird ($4,100) lineups than anyone ever thought possible.

• Davante Adams ($8,000) should lead the way at wide receiver after he delivered a multi-touchdown game for 28% of Milly Maker entrants last week. Michael Thomas ($8,300), Chris Godwin ($7,300) and Mike Evans ($7,200) will also command some attention in the top salary tier, but lineups with more than one receiver priced over $7K will be the exception. Look for significant ownership to settle in the $5K-$6K range, where Courtland Sutton ($6,400), Tyler Boyd ($5,900), and Robby Anderson ($5,100) stand out for their recent production. Despite disappointing all season long, Odell Beckham’s ($6,300) low salary, brand name, and a cushy matchup against the Bengals make him a fit in stock roster builds at a similar price point.

• Tight end is another position where an injury-replacement could open up spending at other positions. Assuming Greg Olsen scratches due to the scary concussion he left with last week, Ian Thomas ($2,500) will appear in a ton of lineups. Even if Thomas doesn’t catch on for some reason, spending at the position should remain moderate with Jack Doyle ($4,600) continuing to operate as Indianapolis de facto WR1.

• There should be enough cap space left for most entrants to splurge at team defense. The Packers ($4,000) and Vikings ($3,800) are the most attractive options with Cleveland ($3,600) and Houston ($3,300) following closely behind.

TAKING A STAND ON THE CHALK

These players are the odds-on favorites to score the most fantasy points relative to their respective salaries. The problem is most of your opponents are well aware. Fading popular plays entirely for the sake of differentiating your lineups is rarely the best decision when multi-entering tournaments. Instead, decide how much exposure you are comfortable with for each player in comparison to their projected ownership percentage. Some suggestions on how to treat this week’s highest-owned players:

Lamar Jackson (@BUF, $7,400, 8% owned)

In a week where the quarterback chalk is difficult to pin down, we can assume Jackson, who is likely to be the most popular cash game quarterback, will also top the charts in GPPs. The last time Jackson failed to score at least 26 DraftKings points was all the way back in Week 5, and he’s only failed to clear that benchmark twice this season. A high floor is nice, but rostering Jackson at his QB1 price tag and high ownership in tournaments comes with expectations he’ll reach his 35+ point ceiling. There isn’t much about a December road matchup in Buffalo that screams ceiling game, but as we saw against the 49ers last week, Jackson is capable of delivering against any defense. At the very least, he’s in play for the 100-yard rushing bonus against the Bills, who rank bottom-10 in rushing defense efficiency (DVOA). Jackson should be part of your tournament plans every week until he costs $8K or more.

Christian McCaffrey (@ATL, $10,300, 21% owned)

The injury concern around Cook means McCaffrey is once again the running back chalk. He finally failed to come through in Week 13, posting a modest 17.3 DraftKings points in an ideal home matchup against Washington, but looks poised to bounce back playing on the fast track in Atlanta’s Mercedes-Benz Stadium. When these teams met in Week 11, McCaffrey piled up 191 scrimmage yards and 33.1 fantasy points without scoring a touchdown. Carolina was blown out in that game, which necessitated a pass-heavy game script and season-high 15 targets for McCaffrey. It’s doubtful the division rematch plays out as lopsided, but McCaffrey doesn’t need game flow on his side to command 25-30 touches. DraftKings was even kind enough to knock $200 off his usual salary due to last week’s dud. As long as his ownership stays in this range, come in even with the field or slightly higher.

Davante Adams (vs. WAS, $8,000, 14% owned)

Adams costs $1,000 more than he did last week but the crowd will gladly pay the premium due to Green Bay’s 28-point implied team total and the pair of touchdowns in his Week 13 box score. Since returning from a toe injury in Week 9, Adams’ 32% team target share trails only DeAndre Hopkins (34%) for the league lead, and perhaps more importantly, Aaron Rodgers has looked his way on nine out of 15 red zone attempts over the same span. Despite ranking near the middle of the pack in normalized fantasy points allowed to opposing wide receivers over the last five weeks, Washington’s defensive backfield remains beatable, as D.J. Moore (12-6-75-1) and Curtis Samuel (7-4-65-1) illustrated last week. It’s possible Adams is a better play at $8,000 than he was at $7,000 a week ago. The only risk is a blowout win that limits pass attempts for Green Bay in the second half, but in that scenario, Adams should be heavily involved in the first-half onslaught.

Ian Thomas (@ATL, $2,500, % owned TBD)

After watching 34-year-old veteran Greg Olsen get knocked out cold last week, it feels safe to assume the Panthers, who just waved the white flag on their season by firing their head coach, won’t rush him back. Thomas, Olsen’s primary backup, is an explosive athlete who produced when given opportunities as a rookie. When Olsen was lost for the season in 2018, Thomas finished as the cumulative TE6 over the final five weeks and he looked good on 43% of the snaps in Week 13, catching all four of his targets for 24 yards. He may not have the same touchdown expectation fellow min-priced tight end Tyler Higbee did last week against Arizona, but five catches for 50 yards isn’t far off a median projection for Thomas, which would exceed a 4x return on his salary. Whether that is good enough for GPPs will depend on his ownership. If he comes in higher than Higbee’s 25% from last week, consider a fade.

Minnesota Vikings (vs. DET, $3,800, 8% owned)

David Blough’s Thanksgiving Day debut exceeded all expectations but he’s in a terrible spot for a repeat performance against the Vikings. As adequate as Blough looked at times vs. Chicago, he completed only 58% passes and got away with a handful of throws that could have been intercepted. Going on the road to Minnesota as a two-touchdown underdog is altogether different from playing the Mitchell Trubisky-led Bears at home after they prepared to face a different quarterback all week. Kirk Cousins and co. should waste no time putting the Lions in a negative game script, which should allow the Vikings defenders to pin their ears back and pressure Blough into numerous poor decisions.

MORE CHALK:

MID-RANGE OWNERSHIP VALUE

You won’t be sneaking these players past your opponents. But their projected ownership percentage is lower than the probability they will score more fantasy points than their salary implies. If you are multi-entering tournaments, raise your exposure higher than their ownership projection.

Kirk Cousins (vs. DET, $6,700, 4% owned)

Cousins finds himself in precisely the same spot he did in Week 11 against the Broncos, only now he’s facing a much softer defense. Headed into the matchup with Denver, the Vikings were double-digit home favorites but the crowd looked past Cousins in favor of Minnesota’s running game. Cousins ended up 1% owned in the Milly Maker and went on to pass for 319 yards and three touchdowns. The public once again sees this as a squash match that favors the Vikings running backs but the Lions defense has been horrendous against the pass. They’ve allowed the second-most normalized fantasy points to enemy quarterbacks over the last five weeks, including ceiling games to Dak Prescott (444-3-0) and Mitchell Trubisky (338-3-1). The high prices on Cousins and Stefon Diggs are kind of problematic, but the tradeoff is slate-busting upside at low ownership.

Melvin Gordon (@JAX, $6,400, 11% owned)

Gordon has resumed his normal workload, posting an average of 21.3 touches over his last four games. He’ll take on a Jaguars rush defense that has been strafed by opposing running backs over the last five weeks. Jacksonville has allowed 73% more PPR fantasy points than league average to the position over that span, which includes a 160-yard performance from Carlos Hyde, two separate Colts running backs (Marlon Mack and Jonathan Williams) breaking the 100-yard mark against them in the same game, and last week’s multi-touchdown effort from career plodder, Peyton Barber. Gordon’s baseline projection is practically identical to Nick Chubb’s, who costs an additional $1,600. He’s one of the best point-per-dollar values on the slate.

Tyrell Williams (vs. TEN, $5,000, 7% owned)

Williams is a bit of a thin play given his lack of recent production. He’s achieved a 4x multiple of his current salary just once in 10 games this season, a ratio which is practically even with his projected ownership. But Vegas sees Tennessee at Oakland as fairly high-scoring (over/under 47.5), Williams can be stacked with Derek Carr for a mere 20% of the salary cap, and the Titans banged-up secondary is getting routinely smoked by the opposition’s top outside threat. Even Zach Pascal (10-7-109-0) got in on the action last week. With his only competition for targets in a winnable matchup coming from tight end Darren Waller, Williams should have a higher floor than he’s shown in recent weeks and the ceiling is there for at least one long touchdown.

Darren Waller (vs. TEN, $5,800, 11% owned)

It’s uncomfortable recommending more than one Raiders pass-catcher, but if Tennessee at Oakland shoots out at low-to-moderate ownership, stacking the game will help your teams fly up the leaderboards. The Titans are terrible at defending WR1s but are also sneaky-bad against tight ends. Fellow top-tier tight ends Austin Hooper (11-9-130), Hunter Henry (8-6-97-0), Travis Kelce (7-7-75-1), and Jack Doyle (11-6-73-1) have each gotten over on Tennessee this season. Waller saw nine targets last week, his most since Week 8, which was predictable with slot receiver Hunter Renfrow sidelined. Renfrow won’t be back this week, cementing Waller as one of a precious few target hogs at the tight end position.

Baltimore Ravens (@BUF, $2,800, 8% owned)

With the Patriots beginning to struggle against stiffer competition, the Ravens have taken the mantle as the best fantasy defense in the league. Prior to last week’s respectable seven-point output against San Francisco, Baltimore’s DST had scored at least 13 DraftKings points in each of their previous five games. For whatever reason, their price remains under $3K in a matchup against Josh Allen and the Bills. Allen is on a nice roll lately but is still a 57% career passer who can struggle with turnovers at times. If Lamar Jackson gets the Ravens out to an early lead, things can get ugly for Allen in a hurry.

MORE MID-RANGE OWNERSHIP VALUES

CONTRARIAN PLAYS

Hitting on one-or-more of these players will gain you massive leverage on the field. Due to their low ownership, the better they perform, the faster your roster separates in the standings. Keep in mind, using a 5%-owned player in only 2-out-of-10 lineups gains you four times more exposure than the field when you multi-enter a tournament. Be careful not to over-invest in these players, but you’ll need at least two from this ownership tier in your lineup for a shot at first place in most large-field GPPs.

Derek Carr (vs. TEN, $5,000, 5% owned)

If we’re playing Tyrell Williams and Waller against the Titans, it would be silly not to overweight the field on Carr. After getting their doors blown off in consecutive road games at New York (Jets) and Kansas City, Oakland is in a bounce back spot. Tennessee’s pass defense has looked good the last two weeks against Nick Foles (in his first game back from IR) and Jacoby Brissett (with a depleted pass-catching corps), but they remain exploitable. The Titans allowed multiple passing touchdowns to all four quarterbacks they faced from Weeks 7-10 and only one of those signal-callers (Kyle Allen) failed to clear 300 yards through the air. The odds this game unfolds as a back and forth shootout between two poor defenses are greater than Carr’s projected ownership.

Sony Michel (vs. KC, $5,600, 2% owned)

Michel's workload varies wildly from week to week due to Bill Belichick's opponent-specific game plans. But assuming Belichick sees the wisdom in keeping Patrick Mahomes II, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce off the field by attacking Kansas City's 30th ranked rush defense (DVOA), Michel should be in for some heavy run. It was only two weeks ago we saw him carry the ball 20 times against Dallas, which might have continued had he not been faced with a negative game script last week in Houston. With the exception of Dalvin Cook in Week 9, the Chiefs have allowed each of the six other running backs who carried the ball at least 15 times against them to rush for over 100 yards.

Kenny Golladay (@MIN, $6,700, 2% owned)

Golladay and the Vikings defense delivering big fantasy days don’t have to be mutually exclusive events. Assuming Minnesota is leading most of the way, David Blough should be forced to throw the ball a ton. Blough showed enough willingness to look downfield to keep Golladay near the top of last week’s wide receiver leaderboard (5-4-158-1) in a far more difficult matchup against Chicago. The Vikings enter this game allowing the fifth-most normalized fantasy points to enemy wide receivers over the last five weeks, including huge days to downfield threats Tyreek Hill (8-6-140-1), Amari Cooper (14-11-147-1), and Courtland Sutton (9-5-113-0).

Kyle Rudolph (vs. DET, $4,400, 2% owned)

The only way Rudolph is deserving of low ownership is if Adam Thielen makes his return this week. In Thielen’s absence, Rudolph has emerged as one of the league’s most reliable tight ends. He has scored five times in the past four games and commanded at least five targets in each contest. Detroit has been a soft matchup for opposing tight ends for years and they are once again allowing the highest passing success rate to the position. Heavy home favorites are where you should be looking for tight end production and no team is implied to win by more points than the Vikings this week.

LA Chargers (@ JAX, $2,800, 4% owned)

When we last saw Gardner Minshew, he was the main culprit behind back-to-back blowout losses to the Texans and Buccaneers, respectively. The Chargers are getting healthier on defense with safeties Derwin James and Adrian Phillips returning last week and the potential exists for a negative game script if Jacksonville’s run defense gets steamrolled for a fifth-straight game. The Chargers are set up nicely to force multiple turnovers.

MORE CONTRARIAN PLAYS

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