On July 18th, eight members of the Footballguys staff, along with four highly-regarded writers in the fantasy football community, got together to complete a 12-team, 20-round, Best Ball draft using MFL10 settings and format. Before the draft, each of the participants answered questions regarding strategies, players they coveted and how they plan to attack the draft. Additional questions were asked at the conclusion of the draft based on the decisions they made. To top it off, Footballguys' Alex Miglio will provide an evaluation of each team's roster strengths and weaknesses, chronicling the strategies and decisions that were made by each participant.
The goal of this article is to give you a look into the minds of fantasy experts throughout the entire draft process. This includes preparation, decision-making, execution, and follow-up. What was their plan? Did they follow it? Why did they make the decisions they made? Some drafters had similar strategies and players of interest, but how they executed their plan and built their roster, varied from person to person.
We hope you will uncover or discover a strategy that might work for you in your draft(s) this year. Learn what players the experts are targeting and why. At Footballguys, when you win, we win! If we can help give you the tools and know-how to build a winning team, we've done our job.
LEAGUE PARAMETERS
Best Ball format - Each week, your top scoring players on your roster automatically start and will count toward your season total. The team with the most points at the end of the season wins. Top scores from the starting positions will count for your weekly score.
- 12 teams
- 20 roster spots
- Starting Lineup
- 1 quarterback
- 2 running backs
- 3 wide receivers
- 1 tight end
- 1 flex (either a running back, wide receiver, or tight end)
- 1 Defense/Special Teams Unit
LEAGUE SCORING
- Offensive scoring
- 4 points - Passing Touchdown
- 6 points - Rushing/Receiving Touchdown
- 0.05 points - Passing Yard
- 0.1 points - Rushing/Receiving Yard
- 1.0 point - Reception
- -1 - Interception Thrown
- 1 - two-point Conversion (pass)
- 1 - two-point conversion (receiving)
- 2 - two-point conversion (rush)
- Defense scoring
- 2 - fumble recovery
- 2 - interception
- 1 - sack
- 2 - safety
- 10 - zero (0) points allowed
- 7 - 1-6 points allowed
- 3 - 7-14 points allowed
- 0 - 15-20 points allowed
- -3 - 21+ points allowed
- 6 defensive or special teams touchdown
DRAFT GRID
DRAFT SLOT 1
Jake Ciely
Jake Ciely is an award-winning Senior Writer/Talent and Fantasy analyst, who also hosts the FSTA Fantasy Sports Radio Show of the Year, On Target. You won't find someone more accurate, as Jake has finished No. 1 in back-to-back Fantasy Baseball seasons and carries a Top 5 average finish in Fantasy Football with a No. 1 finish in 2017. Get the Fantasy deal in seasonal, DFS and more from Jake @allinkid.
PRE-DRAFT QUESTIONS
1. How many of each position do you plan to take?
Since it's Best Ball, after having at least two quarterbacks, two tight ends and two defenses, the mix of the other 14 spots will depend on value. Ideally, I'll own at least six running backs, but don't hold me to that.
2. What is your general strategy regarding the quarterback position? When are you planning to draft the first at this position?
I love to wait as much as the next guy, but with only 20 roster spots, I'll be a bit more aggressive. I'll aim for two quarterbacks with different byes and little-to-no concerns so I can stock up elsewhere.
3. What is your general strategy regarding the running back position? When are you planning to draft the third at this position?
Get a bell cow running back in the first two rounds has been my career mantra. The third running back will completely depend on the board's value. Not to harp the "value" part, but I never lock myself into pre-set, position-based draft plans.
4. What is your general strategy regarding the wide receiver position? When are you planning to draft the third at this position?
I'll have my first receiver at the 2/3 turn since I'm picking first. As for the third receiver, it depends on where the value lies on the board at the 4/5 turn.
5. What is your general strategy regarding the tight end position? When are you planning to draft the first at this position?
I will wait, wait, and wait some more. I will never own Rob Gronkowski, Travis Kelce or the other elite options due to draft cost. I'd much rather grab two potential breakouts or a mix of upside/risk in a Jordan Reed type with a "boring" floor type like Charles Clay.
6. What is your general strategy regarding the defense position? When are you planning to draft the first at this position?
I'll probably take two defenses, but not til much later in the draft, perhaps in the last three rounds.
7. Discuss drafting from the No. 1 hole. What will you do differently because of this draft slot?
Since I'm the first to pick, it's Le'Veon Bell for me. He's playing a full season and is the best option in my opinion.
8. What's your approach to rookies, injured players, and/or suspended players that may not have a full workload to start the season?
I love rookie values at this time of year. Remember last year when Kareem Hunt and Dalvin Cook were going in the fifth round? Granted, Hunt saw a boost because of the Spencer Ware injury, but as with Derrius Guice, Rashaad Penny, etc. this year, I was all in on the talent winning out.
9. At the mid-point of the draft (10 rounds), how many players at each position do you expect to have?
Ideally, I'd like to have one quarterback, one tight end and four each of running back and wide receiver.
10. After 15 rounds, how many players at each position do you expect to have?
Hopefully, I'll have found my second quarterback and tight end, plus a nice sleeper at running back.
11. Name five players you would love to choose from in the final four rounds of the draft.
Darren Sproles, Chris Godwin, Christian Kirk, Paul Richardson Jr, Zay Jones.
12. Name a sleeper (round 10 on) at running back or wide receiver that should thrive in this format.
Martavis Bryant, especially because I can see him outscoring the ghost of Jordy Nelson past.
DRAFT SELECTIONS
Pick
|
Overall
|
Position
|
Player
|
Team
|
1.01
|
1
|
RB
|
PIT
|
|
2.12
|
24
|
WR
|
CIN
|
|
3.01
|
25
|
WR
|
MIN
|
|
4.12
|
48
|
WR
|
Allen Robinson
|
CHI
|
5.01
|
49
|
RB
|
Ronald Jones
|
TBB
|
6.12
|
72
|
WR
|
Chris Hogan
|
NEP
|
7.01
|
73
|
QB
|
HOU
|
|
8.12
|
96
|
RB
|
Theo Riddick
|
DET
|
9.01
|
97
|
TE
|
CHI
|
|
10.12
|
120
|
RB
|
Devontae Booker
|
DEN
|
11.01
|
121
|
WR
|
Mike Williams
|
LAC
|
12.12
|
144
|
TE
|
David Njoku
|
CLE
|
13.01
|
145
|
RB
|
Austin Ekeler
|
LAC
|
14.12
|
168
|
WR
|
OAK
|
|
15.01
|
169
|
QB
|
CLE
|
|
16.12
|
192
|
Def
|
Denver Broncos
|
DEN
|
17.01
|
193
|
Def
|
New England Patriots
|
NEP
|
18.12
|
216
|
RB
|
Elijah McGuire
|
NYJ
|
19.01
|
217
|
QB
|
Baker Mayfield
|
CLE
|
20.12
|
240
|
WR
|
BUF
|
POST-DRAFT QUESTIONS
1. Your pre-draft plan hoped wide receiver Zay Jones would be available late and you selected him in the 20th round. Why is he on your deep sleeper list?
That was before the less encouraging news of Jones being on the active/NFI list. Assuming he's ready for the start of the season, Jones is the second-best receiver for the Bills. I wasn't a big fan of his coming out of college given the spread offense and regular use of five wide sets. However, despite Jones never being able to replicate his college numbers, he still has the skills to be the sure-handed, middle of the field option in the passing attack. Sure, whichever quarterback starting for the Bills is going to be a poor one, but targets are targets, and even if he only sees just 74 again, Jones is bound to catch more than 36 percent of them... maybe 40?
2. You tagged wide receiver Martavis Bryant as a guy you would love to get in the middle rounds What can we expect from him in 2018?
Obviously, this is contingent on that rumored suspension staying in the dark ever since the news broke. If Bryant avoids a suspension, I see a path to his outscoring Jordy Nelson. If you watched Nelson last year, you saw a receiver that seemingly fell off a cliff, hit every rock on the way down, then burst into a mushroom cloud of fire and misery. Nelson's first four games were great, only because of the touchdowns. He never reached 80 yards in any of them, and then he never topped 35 yards after, including Aaron Rodgers' one-game return. Bryant is inconsistent, but as with DeSean Jackson in his better years, best ball is made for these types because you don't have to guess which 6-8 games will be Top 25 value. The format picks them for you.
Alex Miglio's EVALUATION
STRENGTHS
This team wound up being rather top heavy, and it is spread out positionally. Le'Veon Bell is a consensus top-two pick, and Ciely followed that up with a nice duo at wide receiver with A.J. Green and Adam Thielen. If Deshaun Watson returns to form and stays healthy – not a guarantee, especially with touchdown regression looming – he will be one of the best fantasy scorers at the quarterback position. No position really suffered at the top on this Studs-and-Duds squad, giving Ciely a nice weekly floor if his top players all perform close to expectation.
WEAKNESSES
There is a downside to Ciely’s drafting strategy, of course, and that is filling out your team so that the role players provide adequate scoring. Drafting the right guys is key, and Ciely didn’t impress in that regard. The running back position in particular, is a mish-mash of dart throws and prayers behind Bell. Ronald Jones is not likely going to be as a consistent option to fill the RB2 slot, and the rest of the backs behind him may not combine to put up double-digit fantasy points on a weekly basis in this format. Without a waiver wire to rely on, Ciely had to hit on several low-EV picks.
HOW HE’LL WIN IT ALL
Watson picks up where he left off and continues to light the league on fire. Ciely’s tight ends fulfill their potential and put up weekly double-digit fantasy points for a majority of the season. Bell bucks last season’s slow start and puts up a free-agent season for the ages while the rest of the running backs dodge bullets like Neo in the Matrix.
DRAFT SLOT 2
Phil Alexander
Bio
PRE-DRAFT QUESTIONS
1. How many of each position do you plan to take?
3 QB, 2 defense, 2 TE, 7 RB, 6 WR, but that's pretty fluid. I tend to let the draft come to me rather than stick with a rigid plan no matter what unfolds.
2. What is your general strategy regarding the quarterback position? When are you planning to draft the first at this position?
Quarterback is deeper than ever, so waiting is the play, especially in an industry league where more teams will likely fade the position. I'm fine waiting until 12-15 quarterbacks are off the board before taking my first one. I should be able to get three viable starters (maybe I'll only need two depending on how far the top tier falls) no matter how long I wait.
3. What is your general strategy regarding the running back position? When are you planning to draft the third at this position?
Running backs are going to fly off the board. I'll have at least two in the first three rounds and maybe three depending on how things shake out.
4. What is your general strategy regarding the wide receiver position? When are you planning to draft the third at this position?
Wide receiver is deep and it's possible to cobble together a group of six or seven who each bring something valuable to the table without overpaying. I'm aiming for a mix of high-floor chain mover-types, big-play threats, and at least one swing for the fences. I'll most likely have my third by the eighth or ninth round.
5. What is your general strategy regarding the tight end position? When are you planning to draft the first at this position?
I'm not getting Rob Gronkowski so I'm waiting - probably until the eighth or ninth round, with guys like Jordan Reed and George Kittle my top targets.
6. What is your general strategy regarding the defense position? When are you planning to draft the first at this position?
It's the most volatile and matchup dependent position so it's nice to have two or three starting possibilities every week. If the player pool looks gross, I wouldn't mind being the first to draft a defense after the Jaguars and Rams go too early. Somewhere around the 15th.
7. Discuss drafting from the No. 2 hole. What will you do differently because of this draft slot?
Pretty sure my pick will be David Johnson from the No. 2 hole unless Gurley slips to me. From there, I'm not going to be afraid to reach for my players ahead of ADP because after I pick near the turn it's unlikely they'll be making it all the way back to me. I'm also sandwiched between non-Footballguys, so not being familiar with their tendencies puts me at a potential disadvantage.
8. What's your approach to rookies, injured players, and/or suspended players that may not have a full workload to start the season?
I wouldn't draft all of Jameis Winston, Julian Edelman, and Mark Ingram because they're likely to fall but I have no problem taking one, with Ingram, in particular, looking like a nice value at the moment. Rookies are fine as long as they're running backs. Later round slot guys like Anthony Miller and Christian Kirk are on my board also. Injured players are a hard no. Never take a guy who is already injured. Playing football every Sunday is a bad way to heal injuries.
9. At the mid-point of the draft (10 rounds), how many players at each position do you expect to have?
- 4 running backs
- 4 wide receivers
- 1 tight end
- 1 quarterback.
10. After 15 rounds, how many players at each position do you expect to have?
- 6 running backs
- 5 wide receivers
- 2 tight ends
- 2 quarterback
11. Name five players you would love to choose from in the final four rounds of the draft.
12. Name a sleeper (round 10 on) at running back or wide receiver that should thrive in this format.
I like both C.J. Anderson and Robby Anderson.
draft selections
Pick
|
Overall
|
Position
|
Player
|
Team
|
1.02
|
2
|
RB
|
LAR
|
|
2.11
|
23
|
RB
|
CHI
|
|
3.02
|
26
|
WR
|
SEA
|
|
4.11
|
47
|
RB
|
HOU
|
|
5.02
|
50
|
WR
|
LAR
|
|
6.11
|
71
|
RB
|
OAK
|
|
7.02
|
74
|
QB
|
CAR
|
|
8.11
|
95
|
RB
|
CAR
|
|
9.02
|
98
|
TE
|
WAS
|
|
10.11
|
119
|
WR
|
WAS
|
|
11.02
|
122
|
RB
|
Ty Montgomery
|
GBP
|
12.11
|
143
|
QB
|
TBB
|
|
13.02
|
146
|
RB
|
SFO
|
|
14.11
|
167
|
WR
|
JAC
|
|
15.02
|
170
|
QB
|
OAK
|
|
16.11
|
191
|
WR
|
Geronimo Allison
|
GBP
|
17.02
|
194
|
TE
|
DET
|
|
18.11
|
215
|
WR
|
Taywan Taylor
|
TEN
|
19.02
|
218
|
Def
|
Seattle Seahawks
|
SEA
|
20.11
|
239
|
Def
|
Oakland Raiders
|
OAK
|
post-draft questions
1. Your pre-draft plan hoped tight end Luke Wilson would be available late and you selected him in the 17th round. What do you expect from him in 2018?
Willson has a chance to outproduce any tight end currently being drafted outside the Top 10 at the position. The Lions pulled the plug on Eric Ebron and lost run-blocking tight end Darren Fells to free agency. Levine Toilolo was signed to play Fells' role, which leaves just Willson, who came over on a one-year deal from Seattle, and last year’s fourth-round pick, Michael Roberts, to compete for the role of the pass-catching tight end. Willson has a decisive experience edge on Roberts, and coming out of Rice in 2013, he had the athletic edge on him too. At his Pro Day, Willson -- at 6-foot-5 and 251 pounds. -- ran the 40-yard dash in 4.46 seconds. He had a 38-inch vertical jump, 10’2” broad jump, 7.04 seconds three-cone drill, and did 23 reps on the bench -- all top-tier measurables for a tight end. Stuck behind Jimmy Graham for most of the last three seasons in Seattle, Willson’s career stats won’t blow you away, but he’s caught 65% of his career targets for a solid 8.24 yards per target and managed 4 touchdowns last year on just 22 targets. There is some Rob Housler athletic bust potential here, but in the 17th round, I've been happy to take Willson late in the majority of my Best Ball drafts.
2. running back C.J. Anderson is a player you targeted in the middle rounds. What role do you expect from him this year?
Carolina beat writers are speculating Christian McCaffrey may not see the uptick in carries many are expecting. C.J. Anderson --unlike the dried-out husk of Jonathan Stewart -- is still an above-average running back. If we can pencil him into Stewart's 2017 role (~200 carries with 15 of those coming at the goal line), he grades out as mid-RB2, even in PPR leagues. We also have to consider Anderson's upside as an all-purpose back in one of the league's better offenses if McCaffrey were to get hurt. The Panthers ranked 11th in points per game last year and the arrow is pointing up with the healthy return of Greg Olsen and addition of first-round talent D.J. Moore. Anderson should give me a handful of startable weeks when he finds the end zone and could be the reason I win the league if anything were to happen to McCaffrey.
3. You selected tight end Jordan Reed in the ninth and only one other tight end (Luke Wilson) late. Is that enough coverage in this format with an often injured Reed?
As much as I love taking Willson late, it wasn't part of the plan to make him my TE2. In retrospect, I should have passed on a QB3 in the 15th round (Derek Carr) and grabbed any of Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Austin Hooper, Vance McDonald, Jared Cook, or Ricky Seals-Jones instead. When I saw all those names still on the board, I figured I would be able to grab at least one of them in the 16th round, but I ended up missing out on a position run. I prioritized Carr at that point because I had taken Jameis Winston as my QB2 earlier and wanted to guard against his three-game suspension -- not exactly an optimal decision when I already had Cam Newton (a certified iron man) as my QB1. If Reed finally manages something close to a full season, I'll be fine, but tight end is without question my team's Achilles heel.
alex miglio's evaluation
STRENGTHS
Successfully navigating the running back position may be the single biggest path to success in fantasy football. Doing it in best-ball formats has a higher degree of difficulty because there are no waivers. Alexander did a fabulous job seeing through the fog of draft war to field the deepest and likely most profitable stable of running backs in the league. Todd Gurley and Jordan Howard made for a good start followed by potential bargains in Lamar Miller and Marshawn Lynch. C.J. Anderson and Ty Montgomery could wind up being gold in this format, especially with recent rumblings that Anderson will be the starter and command the most carries in Carolina. Alexander also nabbed a nice trio of quarterbacks that will provide consistent scoring and upside.
WEAKNESSES
A strong running back stable tends to mean serious weakness elsewhere. For Alexander, wide receiver and tight end suffered as a result of his strategy. Injury machine Jordan Reed is backed only by Luke Willson, a man with little more than potential at this point. Doug Baldwin is Alexander’s only consistently reliable receiver. Alexander picked some nice sleepers to fill out those positions, but guys like Paul Richardson Jr, Donte Moncrief, and Willson are going to have to deliver consistently.
HOW HE’LL WIN IT ALL
Alexander’s tight end gambit pays off as Reed stays healthy and Willson takes advantage of his new starting gig. Richardson explodes in Washington and Robert Woods proves that he isn’t a one-year wonder in Los Angeles. The running backs and quarterbacks on this squad do their thing.
DRAFT SLOT 3
Matt Schauf
Matt Schauf is a senior analyst with DraftSharks.com. He has been covering fantasy football since 2002, producing content for outlets such as Sporting News, Rotoworld, Athlon and Football Diehards before landing with DraftSharks. Draft Sharks has been online since 1999 and is a four-time winner in the FSTA's annual fantasy football projections accuracy contests.
PRE-DRAFT QUESTIONS
1. How many of each position do you plan to take?
I plan to select the following:
- 2 quarterbacks
- 3 tight ends
- 3 defenses
- 5 running backs
- 7 wide receivers
2. What is your general strategy regarding the quarterback position? When are you planning to draft the first at this position?
I’ll likely take my 1st quarterback in the Round 10-11 range, though that could climb to Round 8 depending on who lingers and what’s available at the other positions. Cam Newton and Drew Brees are key targets who could move my quarterback plan up a couple of rounds.
3. What is your general strategy regarding the running back position? When are you planning to draft the third at this position?
Perhaps more than any other, this depends on how my league mates draft. I won’t reach to get in on early running backs — especially in a best-ball format. I could take my third as early as Round 3 but am also comfortable with not getting that player until Round 8 or so, if that’s how my board falls.
4. What is your general strategy regarding the wide receiver position? When are you planning to draft the third at this position?
My wide receiver strategy complements what I do at RB. I think there are dependable top talents worth early-round slots if my league mates are hitting running back hard. And I also think there’s more than enough value in the mid-to-late rounds to fill the wide receiver pool there if I go running back early. I’ll likely get my 3rd wide receiver in the Round 6-7 range.
5. What is your general strategy regarding the tight end position? When are you planning to draft the first at this position?
I will take Rob Gronkowski anywhere from about 15th overall on. If I don’t draft Gronk, I’m likely not going tight end until at least Greg Olsen in the fifth or sixth. And if I don’t take either of them, then I’m probably looking to the Round 9-10 range — potentially weighing the tight end vs. quarterback options for my first at either spot.
6. What is your general strategy regarding the defense position? When are you planning to draft the first at this position?
Wait, wait, wait, and then grab three. My colleague Jason Phelps pioneered the research several years ago that pointed to the value of drafting that third defense, which at least contributed to an overall shift in how regular drafters treated the position. I’ll probably take my first somewhere in the final five rounds.
7. Discuss drafting from the No. 3 hole. What will you do differently because of this draft slot?
Drafting third means I’ll take an running back. The few relatively safe bets to get true workhorse duty to populate the top of the board and the return of running back domination in Round 1 has meant I can get something closer to Antonio Brown at my Round 2 or 3 pick than I could the past couple of years.
8. What's your approach to rookies, injured players, and/or suspended players that may not have a full workload to start the season?
It differs by player and situation, but I’m not afraid to take rookies in good situations or suspended players I believe I can count on once they’re back. Injured players and guys who have yet to return to the field following surgeries (at the time I draft) make me queasier. They’ll often need to drop vs. ADP for me to jump — especially in a best-ball format where I won’t have in-season roster control.
9. At the mid-point of the draft (10 rounds), how many players at each position do you expect to have?
After 10 rounds, I expect to have three running backs, four wide receivers, one quarterback, and one tight end — with the 10th player depending on what gets to me at the non-quarterback positions. That guy will most likely be an running back or wide receiver but could be a 10th-round TE2.
10. After 15 rounds, how many players at each position do you expect to have?
After 15 rounds, I’ll almost certainly have both quarterbacks, two tight ends, five running backs, and six wide receivers.
11. Name five players you would love to choose from in the final four rounds of the draft.
Darren Sproles would lead this group, but I can’t imagine leaving him on the board through the 15th round. I predict he’ll be my fifth RB. So to fill those WR7 and TE3 slots, I’d love to choose among:
- Michael Gallup (though I’d take him earlier)
- Chris Godwin
- Keelan Cole
- John Ross
- Virgil Green
12. Name a sleeper (round 10 on) at running back or wide receiver that should thrive in this format.
I’ll highlight Sproles, who figures to be frustrating in lineup-setting leagues as long as Jay Ajayi stays healthy. But HC Doug Pederson has said Sproles will have an “extensive” offensive role. Sproles opened 2017 leading the Eagles’ backfield in snaps and ranked fourth among 2016 Eagles (Pederson’s 1st season) with 71 targets. Unless he struggles this summer in his return from an ACL tear, Sproles will provide big plays as a runner and receiver. He even packs more red-zone punch than his frame might suggest. Gimme all the best-ball shares so that I can reap the rewards of those big plays and games without deciding when I have to start him and cross my fingers through his 8-10 touches.
draft selections
Pick
|
Overall
|
Position
|
Player
|
Team
|
1.03
|
3
|
RB
|
DAL
|
|
2.10
|
22
|
RB
|
CIN
|
|
3.03
|
27
|
RB
|
SFO
|
|
4.10
|
46
|
WR
|
DEN
|
|
5.03
|
51
|
WR
|
DET
|
|
6.10
|
70
|
WR
|
NEP
|
|
7.03
|
75
|
QB
|
NEP
|
|
8.10
|
94
|
WR
|
DEN
|
|
9.03
|
99
|
TE
|
IND
|
|
10.10
|
118
|
WR
|
TEN
|
|
11.03
|
123
|
TE
|
CIN
|
|
12.10
|
142
|
RB
|
BAL
|
|
13.03
|
147
|
WR
|
DAL
|
|
14.10
|
166
|
RB
|
PHI
|
|
15.03
|
171
|
Def
|
Los Angeles Chargers
|
LAC
|
16.10
|
190
|
QB
|
JAC
|
|
17.03
|
195
|
TE
|
LAC
|
|
18.10
|
214
|
WR
|
Keelan Cole
|
JAC
|
19.03
|
219
|
Def
|
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
|
TBB
|
20.10
|
238
|
Def
|
Washington Redskins
|
WAS
|
post-draft questions
1. You were the only drafter to start with three running backs. Explain why you think this can be a winning best-ball strategy.
I think differing from your league’s trends can help in any format because it allows you to control your process rather than chasing the same thing as everyone else. Specifically, starting a best-ball roster with three running backs allows me to stock 3 players headed for dominant workloads, and thus likely more dependable weekly fantasy production and more high-end weeks.
2. You had a pre-draft to wait until late and then grab 3 defenses. You then execute it to a tee by getting the Chargers in the 15th and the Buccaneers and Redskins to close out the draft. Why is this your preferred method of attack at this position in best-ball leagues?
Team defenses are wildly inconsistent. Even the best tend to post eight or nine starter weeks a season. That’s why so many fantasy owners look to stream them at this point. Adding an extra defense instead of a sixth running back, third quarterback, or eighth wide receiver is the closest I can get to streaming in a best-ball draft. That third defense is more likely to give me starter weeks than the reserve I passed on at another position.
alex miglio's evaluation
STRENGTHS
Schauf had an eye-popping start at running back. Not only did he take a requisite horse with the third pick – you are practically required to take one in the top four this year given the drop-off from the top tier to the rest – but he managed to get two guys with serious top-10 potential with his next two picks. Jerrick McKinnon is a personal favorite, a breakout candidate capable of catching 70 passes in his new Kyle Shanahan offense. Landing him in the third round to go along with Ezekiel Elliott and Joe Mixon gave Schauf a terrifying trio at the position.
WEAKNESSES
This was a solid draft all around, but taking three consecutive running backs to start meant sacrificing at another position. That position was tight end, where Schauf pinned his hopes on Jack Doyle and Tyler Eifert. Doyle was a surprise last season, but new teammate Eric Ebron is probably going to outscore him in 2018. And we all know Tyler Eifert will be lucky to play half the season given his injury history. Virgil Green had better have some sort of breakout season if Schauf is going to put up a decent number from the tight end spot on a weekly basis. Wide receiver could also be an issue at the beginning of the season with Edelman suspended and two wideouts from the same team vying for fantasy points.
HOW HE’LL WIN IT ALL
McKinnon goes supernova as many of us are predicting and posts a top-five fantasy season alongside Zeke Elliot’s top performer finish. Doyle brushes off Ebron’s challenge for playing time and puts up TE1 numbers for 10-plus weeks. Golden Tate renders Edelman moot, and Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders alternate big weeks throughout the year. Tom Brady is still Tom Brady.
DRAFT SLOT 4
Jason Wood
Bio
PRE-DRAFT QUESTIONS
1. How many of each position do you plan to take?
Generally, in this format, I opt for one of two setups:
- 3 quarterbacks
- 6 running backs
- 7 wide receivers
- 2 tight ends
- 2 defenses
OR
- 2 quarterbacks
- 6 running backs
- 7 wide receivers
- 3 tight ends
- 2 defenses
The constants are running back, wide receiver, and defense. Ultimately, to win a Best Ball league you need luck (injuries need to not go against you) and an elite team. You either win 1st or you go home. In that vein, I don't worry about overindexing quarterback and defense. If my top guys aren't healthy and big-time performers, I'm not winning the league even if I have a third-tier option at No. 3.
2. What is your general strategy regarding the quarterback position? When are you planning to draft the first at this position?
If I have one overarching rule in Best Ball, it's to stick to my roster construction. I put next to no energy in targeting positions at specific rounds. I let the draft come to me and take the best player available. Based on the prior best ball drafts I've done so far this year, I tend to end up with an elite quarterback because most others are hellbent on waiting. If Tom Brady or Russell Wilson are there in the late fourth round or anytime in the fifth, they're likely targets because I tend to not like the value at running back, wide receiver, and tght end in that range. If I pass on those players (or they're already gone), I'll wait until the last QB1s in my tier start coming off the board and then prioritize grabbing at least one of them. I also want to come away with another quarterback (QB2) I think has a better than average shot at finishing in the Top 10. That typically means I'm taking two quarterbacks from the consensus top 15-16 rankings.
3. What is your general strategy regarding the running back position? When are you planning to draft the third at this position?
As I already said, I don't target positions in given rounds. I could have three running backs in the first three rounds (although that's unlikely) or I could wait until the 10th round for my third running back depending on how the draft unfolds. Typically, I'll have my third running back by the sixth or seventh round. Since it's Best Ball, I will be more apt to target hyper-talented runners in committees. Whereas I have concerns in typical redraft leagues about the likes of Sony Michel or Rex Burkhead or Derrick Henry or Dion Lewis, in Best Ball they're easier to build around because you are likely to get some monster games from them. As I'm rounding out my roster, I tend to target high-risk boom/bust players because, again, this format is "win or go home."
4. What is your general strategy regarding the wide receiver position? When are you planning to draft the third at this position?
Best ball makes wide receiver a position easy to wait on. You can assemble three or four boom/bust players that would kill you in redraft leagues but are dominant in this format. Players like Paul Richardson Jr, Cooper Kupp, Devante Parker, Sammy Watkins, Tyrell Williams are going to be maddening if you have to choose what weeks to start them. But in Best Ball? Three or four 100-yard, 2-touchdown games a season from each and you're in good shape to contend for the league title. My plan this year tends to focus on grabbing two elite (Top 20) receivers with large target shares, and then wait and fill out the roster with five boom/bust guys from great offenses.
5. What is your general strategy regarding the tight end position? When are you planning to draft the first at this position?
Tight end is the position I'm willing to punt this year, if I don't take Rob Gronkowski early. Most of the non-Gronkowski Top 10 are going earlier than I think they're worth in this format, and usually there are values at other positions I like more. If I do take Gronkowski, I'm waiting until the last two or three rounds for my second. If I pass on Gronkowski, I'm probably taking three tight ends outside the consensus Top 10, but well within my Top 20.
6. What is your general strategy regarding the defense position? When are you planning to draft the first at this position?
I'm quite likely going to be one of the first people to draft a defense. There are six or seven defenses I feel are bulletproof, and I want one of them. Basically, as soon as I see one or two elite defenses come off the board, it becomes a priority for me in the next round or two. I wait until 18th or 19th rounds for my second defense usually.
7. Discuss drafting from the No. 4 hole. What will you do differently because of this draft slot.
I'm fortunate to draft fourth, which is an ideal spot this year. Todd Gurley, Ezekiel Elliott, Le'Veon Bell, and David Johnson are the consensus top-4 picks in nearly every Best Ball draft, and I'll simply take whoever falls to me happily. It also gives me the first shot at receiver in the second round of the four owners who land that quartet of runners in the 1st round. If all goes according to plan, I'll either go RB/Gronkowski/WR in first, second, and third or RB/WR/BPA (WR/RB) depending. In the fourth I will look for either Tom Brady or Russell Wilson, and if both are on the board, I'll take BPA in the fourth and hopefully get one of them on the way back in the fifth.
8. What's your approach to rookies, injured players, and/or suspended players that may not have a full workload to start the season?
Injuries are the death knell in Best Ball leagues, and I won't take chances. Quarterbacks Carson Wentz, Deshaun Watson, and Andrew Luck are all supposedly in line to return for the regular season, but they also won't see much (if any) action in the preseason. I won't draft them unless they fall precipitously, which is unlikely. I also tend to downgrade injury-prone players in as much as that label is predictable. If someone has missed multiple games in multiple seasons, they're not going to be on my roster. Dion Lewis, Jordan Reed,