August is the month when we see the most movement in terms of dynasty values. Preseason performances and the seemingly constant stream of information coming out of training camp cause the value of some young guys to skyrocket while the offseason hype of others slowly fades.
It is also perhaps the most challenging time of year in dynasty. The goal is to thread the needle between taking into account every relevant report and adjusting prior opinions to take into account new information while not overreacting unnecessarily. Easier said than done. Further complicating matters is the often contradictory nature of training camp reports from day-to-day (and from reporter to reporter) and the prevalence of confirmation bias from analysts.
August is also a great time to take advantage of all that Footballguys offers. The weekly training camp reports are invaluable for dynasty owners and help you take in all of the relevant camp news while filtering out some of the noise. Subscribers should also feel free to contact me directly with any dynasty trade or valuation questions via twitter (@hindery), email (hindery@footballguys.com) or in the forums.
The dynasty trade value chart is tailored specifically to a 12-team PPR league that starts one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end and a flex. It is meant to serve primarily as a guide for trades but is also a great resource during startup drafts. If the players and picks on each side of the trade offer add up to approximately the same number, the trade should be considered even. If you receive a trade offer that sends you players with a higher total number value than the players you are giving up, it is a trade offer worth strongly considering.
The August update will go in-depth on the return of Andrew Luck, the changing age curves at quarterback, how to value LeVeon Bell and LeSean McCoy, the death of the Zero-RB strategy, early risers at wide receiver, and the top trade target at tight end.
Quarterbacks
| Rank |
Quarterback
|
2018 Value | Future Value | Total Value |
|
1
|
4
|
10
|
14
|
|
|
2
|
4
|
10
|
14
|
|
|
3
|
4
|
9
|
13
|
|
|
4
|
4
|
8
|
12
|
|
|
5
|
3
|
5
|
8
|
|
|
6
|
2
|
6
|
8
|
|
|
7
|
2
|
5
|
7
|
|
|
8
|
2
|
5
|
7
|
|
|
9
|
2
|
4
|
6
|
|
|
10
|
2
|
4
|
6
|
|
|
11
|
1
|
5
|
6
|
|
|
12
|
1
|
5
|
6
|
|
|
13
|
1
|
5
|
6
|
|
|
14
|
0
|
6
|
6
|
|
|
15
|
3
|
2
|
5
|
|
|
16
|
2
|
3
|
5
|
|
|
17
|
2
|
3
|
5
|
|
|
18
|
1
|
4
|
5
|
|
|
19
|
Mitchell Trubisky
|
1
|
4
|
5
|
|
20
|
1
|
3
|
4
|
|
|
21
|
1
|
3
|
4
|
|
|
22
|
1
|
3
|
4
|
|
|
23
|
0
|
4
|
4
|
|
|
24
|
0
|
4
|
4
|
|
|
25
|
0
|
4
|
4
|
|
|
26
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
|
|
27
|
0
|
3
|
3
|
|
|
28
|
1
|
1
|
2
|
|
|
29
|
1
|
1
|
2
|
|
|
30
|
1
|
1
|
2
|
|
|
31
|
1
|
1
|
2
|
|
|
32
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
|
|
33
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
|
|
34
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
|
|
35
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
|
|
36
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
Buy-Low Window on Andrew Luck Still Open?
Perhaps the biggest early training camp news at the quarterback position is the fact that Andrew Luck has been able to get out there every day and throw without any setbacks. Not too long ago, Luck was the consensus choice as the top dynasty quarterback. His dynasty ADP slid all the way to QB10 a few months ago. It has rebounded to QB6, so the window to buy low is starting to close. However, in startups Luck is still going at least a few rounds below the top passers and he is quite a bit cheaper to acquire in trade than the top-4 passers are. With what looks to be a successful return to action, expect Luck’s value to quickly rebound and for him to regain his status as a top-five dynasty passer sooner than later.
The positive early returns on Luck’s health are also a boost for the top weapons in the Colts passing offense. T.Y. Hilton should see a similar upward trend in his trade value. If Hilton rises into the second round of redraft leagues (as he should), his dynasty value will increase accordingly. Hilton is under contract in Indianapolis for the next three seasons and is in line for strong production over the medium term. Training camp reports about the progress of Deon Cain also take on added significance due to Luck’s return. If the talented rookie can win a starting job (better than even chance), he could be one of the biggest value movers in all of dynasty in the month of August.
Changing Dynamics of Age Curves
One of the interesting storylines this summer is the increasingly ageless nature of the quarterback position. Aaron Rodgers recently explained how he wants to be like Tom Brady and play into his 40s. He is not alone. Ben Roethlisberger has made similar comments this offseason. Plus, early camp reports on Tom Brady and Drew Brees are that they are showing no signs of slowing down. There have been a number of factors in recent years which have allowed quarterbacks to play at an elite level for much longer than previous generations at the position. First, the rules have evolved to protect quarterbacks and lessen the number of big hits they take. Second, as noted in the linked article, quarterbacks have become much more rigorous in their diet and exercise regimens. We are seeing quarterbacks actually continue to improve and put up bigger fantasy numbers in their mid-30s than they did in their 20s.
The increased longevity has major impacts on dynasty valuation and strategy. It depresses quarterback values across the board in both standard and Superflex leagues. For example, Ben Roethlisberger is the current QB24 in dynasty ADP. He will likely play at a high level for at least the next three years (possibly longer) and there is no sense of urgency or panic if he is your QB2 in a Superflex league. Almost every dynasty team currently has multiple talented quarterbacks rostered so getting a decent trade return for a quarterback is nearly impossible. Late-round quarterback is becoming a more profitable strategy in all formats. We need to take this longevity into account in wide receiver valuations as well. For example, Michael Thomas (Drew Brees), Chris Hogan (Tom Brady), Keenan Allen (Philip Rivers), and others similarly attached to aging passers would have been discounted a bit more in past seasons.
Running Back
| Rank |
Running Back
|
2018 Value | Future Value | Total Value |
|
1
|
10
|
42
|
52
|
|
|
3
|
8
|
42
|
50
|
|
|
2
|
10
|
40
|
50
|
|
|
4
|
10
|
28
|
38
|
|
|
5
|
10
|
28
|
38
|
|
|
6
|
8
|
28
|
36
|
|
|
7
|
6
|
26
|
32
|
|
|
8
|
7
|
25
|
32
|
|
|
9
|
7
|
25
|
32
|
|
|
10
|
4
|
20
|
24
|
|
|
11
|
4
|
18
|
22
|
|
|
12
|
Melvin Gordon
|
6
|
16
|
22
|
|
13
|
3
|
17
|
20
|
|
|
14
|
2
|
16
|
18
|
|
|
15
|
2
|
15
|
17
|
|
|
16
|
2
|
14
|
16
|
|
|
17
|
4
|
12
|
16
|
|
|
18
|
1
|
14
|
15
|
|
|
19
|
3
|
12
|
15
|
|
|
20
|
4
|
11
|
15
|
|
|
21
|
Ronald Jones II
|
2
|
12
|
14
|
|
22
|
2
|
12
|
14
|
|
|
23
|
2
|
8
|
10
|
|
|
24
|
3
|
7
|
10
|
|
|
25
|
2
|
7
|
9
|
|
|
26
|
2
|
7
|
9
|
|
|
27
|
Mark Ingram
|
2
|
6
|
8
|
|
28
|
2
|
6
|
8
|
|
|
29
|
3
|
4
|
7
|
|
|
30
|
2
|
4
|
6
|
|
|
31
|
1
|
4
|
5
|
|
|
32
|
1
|
4
|
5
|
|
|
33
|
2
|
3
|
5
|
|
|
34
|
3
|
2
|
5
|
|
|
35
|
4
|
1
|
5
|
|
|
36
|
1
|
3
|
4
|
|
|
37
|
1
|
3
|
4
|
|
|
38
|
1
|
3
|
4
|
|
|
39
|
1
|
3
|
4
|
|
|
40
|
1
|
3
|
4
|
|
|
41
|
1
|
3
|
4
|
|
|
42
|
1
|
3
|
4
|
|
|
43
|
2
|
2
|
4
|
|
|
44
|
0
|
3
|
3
|
|
|
45
|
0
|
3
|
3
|
|
|
46
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
|
|
47
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
|
|
48
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
|
|
49
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
|
|
50
|
Ty Montgomery
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
|
51
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
|
|
52
|
2
|
1
|
3
|
|
|
53
|
0
|
2
|
2
|
|
|
54
|
John Kelly
|
0
|
2
|
2
|
|
55
|
0
|
2
|
2
|
|
|
56
|
1
|
1
|
2
|
|
|
57
|
1
|
1
|
2
|
|
|
58
|
1
|
1
|
2
|
|
|
59
|
1
|
1
|
2
|
|
|
60
|
1
|
1
|
2
|
Should Le'Veon Bell be Discounted?
The Steelers were not able to come to terms with Bell on a contract extension. It now seems more likely than not that Bell will be in a different uniform in 2019. With uncertainty comes risk and Bell’s future is more uncertain than the other elite running backs. Pittsburgh is an ideal situation for a running back. The Steelers have one of the league’s best offensive lines and future Hall of Famers at quarterback and wide receiver to take the pressure off of the running game. It is hard to imagine Bell stepping into a better situation if he leaves as a free agent next spring.
Bell is still a massive difference-maker for 2018. Plus, whoever signs Bell for 2019 and beyond will have to make a major financial investment to do so. Thus, he is nearly assured of being an offensive centerpiece for as many years as he can stay healthy. All that being said, when also factoring in Bell’s heavy workload and injury history on top of the uncertainty about the future, maybe we see some of the class of 2017 running backs surpass Bell in dynasty value soon.
What to do with LeSean McCoy?
The allegations of McCoy’s involvement in setting up an armed robbery at a property he owned place a major cloud over his NFL future. The police statements that this was a “targeted robbery” and that the items stolen were the exact items McCoy had asked his ex-girlfriend to return to him are ominous. However, the justice system moves slowly and a financial settlement from McCoy could make witness cooperation an issue.
From a short-term perspective, McCoy is most likely going to stay on the field in 2018 while everything plays out. As such, he is an intriguing buy-low target for contenders in need of an immediate impact running back. It is worth offering a future 2nd-round pick and seeing if it is accepted or leads to a reasonable counter.
From a longer-term perspective, McCoy’s dynasty value takes a real hit. He was probably nearing the end anyway, but his status for 2019 and beyond is in serious doubt. Not only is there the cloud of a possible NFL suspension (or even a prison sentence), but it will also make it harder for NFL teams to justify signing him from a public relations standpoint when he loses a step. If you aren’t a contender, the best course of action is to wait until the season starts and see if McCoy’s value rebounds enough to where you can finagle a late-1st or the equivalent out of a contender.
The Volatile Value of the Rookies
Which of the seven rookie running backs taken between pick #27 (Rashaad Penny) and pick #71 (Royce Freeman) end up hitting will make or break a lot of dynasty teams. For every highly-drafted running back that exceeds expectations (Kareem Hunt and Alvin Kamara), there are more that don’t pan out (T.J. Yeldon and Ameer Abdullah). The 2018 class will be no different. Expect at least a couple of players from this cohort to quickly emerge as top-20 dynasty assets while at least a couple others never emerge as starters. The positive to rostering these backs is that there are always opportunities in the first year to get solid value if you decide you are no longer a believer in their talents and want to move them.