Week 1 of the NFL season is the ultimate litmus test for dynasty owners. It is easy to view the singular game of sample size as the in-concrete 'new reality' for the rest of the month, rest of the season, even the rest of a player's foreseeable future. A quick search on twitter or through dynasty trade message board threads since Week 1 ended shows a laundry list of knee-jerk reactions to a single game. For rookies, an entire offseason of evaluation and acquisition is overshadowed by a few dozen (or less) snaps opening their career.
Dynasty is a long-term venture with many short-term oscillations in player value along the way. Startup Average Draft Position (ADP) suggests rookies by and large get a free pass during their first NFL season. Nearly all of them will emerge this coming January with equal or greater consensus market value. Here are my film study notes from Week 1 on rookies, young players of note, and situations to monitor:
Quarterbacks
Johnny Manziel saw significant playing time after Josh McCown turned into a human helicopter on a goal line leap. Going beyond the boxscore, Manziel had a long rush called back by penalty and missed an open touchdown to Andrew Hawkins when rolling left. Manziel is very loose and careless with the ball, shades of Michael Vick in that regard.
Peyton Manning looked identical to his late-season swoon in 2014. Is this the end? Manning compressed the field with painful short throws a majority of the time plus missed on two deeper throws towards Emmanuel Sanders. Manning was not even a top-30 fantasy option in Week 1 and looked every bit the part of the struggle. When moved off his spot in the pocket, Manning struggled mightily for accuracy or power. Demaryius Thomas is the only talent-immune asset in the Denver offense if Peyton Manning erodes a la late Brett Favre.
Ryan Mallett relieved Brian Hoyer in Houston's loss to Kansas City. The former New England backup flaunted his enviable arm talent in the closing minutes with mostly accurate power throws, unlocked a strong game from DeAndre Hopkins, mostly ignored by Hoyer. Mallett is a name to know for deeper leagues or quarterback-premium formats as Week 1's appearance was arguably his finest NFL moments to-date.
Running Backs
David Johnson saw minimal time on the field against the Saints, but flashed. In addition to a quality return or two, Johnson iced the game taking a short reception to the house late in the game. His burst, uncommon for his size, was on display. I am not sure if Johnson will be even an average between-the-tackles runner in the NFL, but his combination of acceleration, long speed, hands, and size are intoxicating. Andre Ellington already dealing with an injury helps Johnson's case for a ramp up in playing time even if past-his-prime veteran Chris Johnson is sees more touches in the near-term.
Tevin Coleman was the clear leader in Atlanta's backfield touches, but Devonta Freeman's work centered around short-yardage and pass protection downs, seemingly pointing out Coleman's current shortcomings. Coleman had more burst than Freeman, but lacked feel or vision outside of overt openings in the front seven. Monitor Coleman's progress between the tackles in coming games otherwise he will be boom-bust based on breaking a long run.
T.J. Yeldon looked every part of an NFL starting running back. He dominated the backfield snaps, nearly 3-to-1 over Denard Robinson. Yeldon showed lateral explosion and an innate feel as he navigated the front seven of the Carolina defense. Yeldon added solid hands in the game. Yeldon is 21 years old with a defined lead role, his value in dynasty is strong especially when combined with his prospect profile dating all the way back to college recruiting and being a phenom 18-year-old runner at Alabama.
Carlos Hyde had sagging dynasty stock during the offseason as San Francisco brought in Reggie Bush (tempered PPR appeal) and the team looked like potentially one of the worst in the NFL (how many leads would they have to salt away?). The defense magnified the difficulties of the Vikings to move the ball and San Francisco was able to live in their comfort zone of run-heavy offense. Plus Reggie Bush exited with injury and Mike Davis was inactive for the game. Hyde had a Year 2 Le'Veon Bell feel to his improved movement. He ran hot, won collisions, and lateral explosion. In the coming weeks we will learn if the 49ers defense was the takeaway or the Minnesota offense. With a strong run of production, Hyde will be a consensus Round 1 startup pick (some dynasty owners value him close to there after a single game).
Bishop Sankey had arguably his finest NFL game in the blowout win against Tampa Bay. Sankey exhibited outstanding balance, pad level, foot frequency, and vision. He was a prime breakout candidate entering his sophomore season as the projected starter and showed well in the role Week 1.
Wide Receivers
Sammy Watkins is the subject of much hand-wringing this week due to the shutout pitched by elite cover man Vontae Davis. Watkins was the consensus 1.01 rookie pick in 2014 and had an above-average historical rookie season when compared to fellow top-10 NFL Draft selections. Going through the tape, Watkins did beat Davis on a deep route, having nearly five yards of separation and a sure touchdown. Tyrod Taylor, while he connected with Percy Harvin on a long score in the game, missed Watkins in this instance. How would Watkins be viewed differently by the reactionary crowd if his stat line were 50+ yards and a touchdown instead? The NFL is a game of circumstances and inches. Keeping them in context is vital in the long-form game of dynasty.
Terrance Williams is considered the next man up with Dez Bryant out for a significant stretch. However, Williams has been a very streaky player in his career, Week 1 against the Giants being no different. Williams had two early drops, including a drive-killing one. Williams with greater attention from secondaries will do more harm than volume-based good without Bryant there. I see Jason Witten, Cole Beasley, Gavin Escobar, and Devin Street all getting a larger short-term boost than Williams.
James Jones was on more than a few waiver wires leading up to Week 1. He was viewed as a depth signing more than anything as Green Bay parted ways with Jones and the Giants did nothing more than kick the tires on the past-his-prime receiver. The dynasty community projected a breakout from Davante Adams and an uptick in Ty Montgomery and Jeff Janis' roles without Jordy Nelson in 2015. At least for one week, James Jones looks like the high-touchdown vulture from his peak season years ago in Green Bay. Jones did not get much separation, but Aaron Rodgers has such placement and aggressive decision-making with his throws, Jones needs chemistry more than anything to be a viable fantasy starter this season.
Cordarrelle Patterson barely played in Week 1 and when he did blended into the background. This time a year ago, Patterson was in the second round discussion in startup drafts. Now, he is firmly on the NFL (and dynasty roster) fringe and playing behind Jarius Wright.
Tight Ends
Greg Olsen is the Sammy Watkins of tight ends post-Week 1. While his 1-catch dud game in the box score looks horrific with a wide open Carolina passing game and bevy of tight ends with strong games, there were missed opportunities. Olsen had a touchdown called back by a push-off (didn't really need it) and offensive pass interference call. Also, a 13-yard reception was called back by another Carolina penalty. Three receptions and a touchdown is viewed far differently by box score scouts mid-week.
Tyler Eifert had three early receptions in Week 1 of 2014 before the rest of the season was lost due to injury. Now back and healthy, Eifert looked like the top-shelf receiving threat coming out of Notre Dame. His ball skills were immaculate especially in close coverage down the seam. Even with a marginal quarterback in Andy Dalton and a top lead receiver in A.J. Green, Eifert looks poised for a TE1 season.
Ladarius Green took full advantage of Antonio Gates' absence in Week 1 and finally not blocked more than running routes. Green had speed not seen out of Antonio Gates in years (if ever). Green is too big for safeties and far too fast for linebackers. I am interested to see how defenses match up with Green. The Chargers offense looks like one of the best in the NFL with Keenan Allen, Stevie Johnson, and Danny Woodhead joining Ladarius Green through the air.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins showed well in Tampa Bay's blowout loss to Tennessee. In addition to his traditional tight end work, Seferian-Jenkins' highlight came when lining up as a split out receiver later in the game. He won at the line of scrimmage against defensive backs, breaking a tackle on his way to a long touchdown. There were shades of Rob Gronkowski on the play, traits few tight ends in the NFL possess. Seferian-Jenkins' NFL Draft profile was similar to Gronkowski and with decent quarterback play could be on that track of early-career Gronkowski as the season develops.
Jordan Reed looked healthy, explosive, and a matchup problem for defenses. With DeSean Jackson out in the near-term, Reed - along with Pierre Garcon - stands to benefit. The key with Reed is health. If available, Reed owners (or non-owners) should take a look at rostering Derek Carrier. The trade acquisition from San Francisco played 44% of the snaps as Reed's primary backup and in two-tight end sets. Think of Carrier as Niles Paul+ if Reed were to miss time.