FanDuel GPP Domination - Week 18

Photo: USA Today Sports

For those of you who are new to Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS), GPPs are "Guaranteed Prize Pool" Tournaments with larger, sometimes very large prize amounts. FanDuel is one of the biggest sites in DFS and offers some of the biggest prizes in the industry. The goal of this article is to guide you towards some players that could help you take home that big prize. Footballguys offers a ton of resources to help you build that winning lineup, and this is just one of the many - but I hope that you will find it a valuable resource and check this article out on a regular basis.

Before we talk about the players for this week, we cannot completely ignore cash game plays. Typically a "GPP player" for the week is one that can score big or score terribly - the classic "boom or bust" player. A wide receiver that can catch two deep balls for two scores can get you 30+ points - or he might wind up with nada. Chasing 1-3 big plays can win you a tournament, but filling out a roster completely with these types of options will likely leave you well short of first place. That is why you cannot ignore the cash game plays each week as well, as combining the two groups is what usually leads to those big victories in GPP contests. So, expect some mention of players who are cash game plays each week, as well as some players that could be considered for both GPP and cash games.

Note - this article is not intended to provide a fully exhaustive list of every possible player. That would be an immensely long group of players. These are just some of the best options I see for GPPs this week when considering value, price, upside, and matchups.

Second note - Keep in mind the multiplier target(s) you want to hit for both cash and GPP / tournaments on FanDuel. In general, you are looking for 2x in cash (twice the cost of the player in $1,000 increments) and 3x in GPP. That means a player that costs $6,000 should produce 12 or more points in cash and 18 or more in GPPs.

Now, on with this week's top options:

GENERAL THOUGHTS ON WILD CARD WEEKEND

To help you out each week, I will give you some general thoughts as we progress through the season.  The playoffs are a different animal entirely, and for several good reasons.  First, there are just four games, so the player pool is clearly shallower.  Adding to the difficulty is the level of competition – all of these teams are rather good, so the matchups to exploit are harder to find.  There are still a few that are there, but many other lineups are going to be targeting these same players.  To win a GPP, you are really going to have to take some stands on game scripts and players and pick your roster accordingly.

This weekend I expect the home teams to win for the most part, with extreme bias towards Jacksonville and New Orleans.  The Jaguars have the best defense going this weekend (and quite possibly overall) and they also have an advantageous matchup with the Bills offering up the worst run defense in the league.  As a result, everyone will want to get the Jaguars defense in their lineup if they can afford them, and the same can be said for Leonard Fournette.  Both are chalk plays I am willing to eat this week if they fit in my lineups.

As for the Saints, they offer up more talent than Carolina, and the matchups tend to be in their favor.  This is the only matchup that is a rematch from the regular season, and they played each other twice already this year – both going to New Orleans.  While it is hard for the game scripts to match the first two, odds are that Michael Thomas will have a big game and both Saints rushers are strong options.  Again, solid chalk options this week, especially Thomas.

I broke down all four games in For The Win this week, so I will re-share those thoughts here:

(Saturday, 4:35PM Eastern, ESPN) KANSAS CITY (-8) vs. TENNESSEE  (Over/Under = 44-44.5)
The Chiefs are heading into the postseason rested and ready to go against a Titans team that had to win against Jacksonville just to get in last Sunday.  I first thought that all of the matchups would tend to favor Kansas City, but I see a few paths to success for the Titans.  The Chiefs have given up 15 rushing touchdowns this year, tied for fourth-worst in the NFL, and are giving up 4.3 yards per carry.  Back in October, the Chiefs were graded as the defense that played man defense more often than any other team and I do not think that has changed.  That will favor Marcus Mariota to take off and run, much like he did against the Jaguars last week (10-60 rushing).  Derrick Henry struggled last week against Jacksonville, but he will again carry the workload (along with Mariota).  Even though I just wrote up plenty on the Titans, the Chiefs are still the much better team and Alex Smith should be able to pick apart Tennessee’s defense with Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill.  Kansas City 27, Tennessee 17.  PICK:  Chiefs

(Saturday, 8:15PM Eastern, NBC)  LOS ANGELES RAMS (-6) vs. ATLANTA  (Over/Under = 48-49)
Paging Ryan Hester to the red courtesy phone.  Todd Gurley is the epitome of what you want against Atlanta - a talented pass-catching running back against the Falcons.  He has been nearly unstoppable of late with six touchdowns in Weeks 15 and 16 (the Rams rested him in Week 17).  Atlanta will look to run the ball as well with Tevin Coleman and Devonta Freeman, but Freeman appears to be at less than full strength this week.  The Rams are susceptible to the run game the most as they have allowed the second-most touchdowns to running backs and fifth-most yards on the ground.  This could be a run-heavy game but Julio Jones can beat any matchup as an elite receiver.  I actually like Mohamed Sanu more as he is more versatile and has more touchdowns, plus he is always in play for a gadget play call.  This is probably the toughest game to pick, as the Rams are new to the playoffs and Atlanta has the experience (and who can forget their Super Bowl collapse).  I expect a close game with the Rams winning it, and I hesitate to give the points, but I will take the Rams by a touchdown as I expect them to win a close contest.  Rams 27, Falcons 21.  PICK:  Rams

Sunday, 1:05PM Eastern, CBS)  JACKSONVILLE (-8) vs. BUFFALO  (Over/Under = 39-40)
Jacksonville has so much to offer in this game against the Bills.  A strong defense and a solid ground game against a Buffalo team likely to be without their star player.  LeSean McCoy has an ankle injury that he is likely going to try and play through, and I think he does suit up and play but he will not be 100% by any stretch of the imagination.  Jacksonville's weakness, if any, is against the run, but I think they will key on McCoy and also TE Charles Clay and force Tyrod Taylor to find a different way to put up some offense.  I think that Buffalo will struggle all game and Leonard Fournette will feast against the weak Buffalo run defense (4.3 yards per carry and a league-worst 22 rushing touchdowns against).  I expect a low scoring contest that Jacksonville will be happy to grind out and win in an old-fashioned football way, 23-6 with very little passing offense for either side.  PICK:  Jaguars  

(Sunday, 4:40PM Eastern, FOX)  NEW ORLEANS (-6.5) vs. CAROLINA  (Over/Under = 48.5)
The Wild Card Weekend closes on FOX with the third matchup of the Panthers and Saints for this year.  The Saints won both prior matchups (34-13 in Week 3, 31-21 at home in Week 13).  Several trends come out of analyzing those two clashes, and the first is that Drew Brees had his only three touchdown game of the year against the Panthers back in September.  He did not need to light it up in the second contest with more support from his run game, and that is the second thing to note.  Alvin Kamara had 126 yards in the second meeting with two scores on just 14 touches, and he was a bigger part of the offense than back in September (which was still a good game for him, 42 yards and a touchdown on just five chances).  Mark Ingramwas solid in both games (14-56 in Week 3 with 2-30 receiving, followed by 14-85-1 and 6-37 in the second).  Lastly, Michael Thomas scored a touchdown in both matchups and led the Saints in receiving for both games (7-87-1 then 5-70-1).  I like all four (Brees, Thomas, Kamara and Ingram) to lead the Panthers to a lot of production.  As for Carolina, well, Cam Newtonthrew three interceptions in the first game with no touchdown passes but did manage two touchdowns in the second matchup.  Newton was better as a rusher, with a combined 9-67-1 rushing (the touchdown came in the first clash).  Devin Funchess and Jonathan Stewart had pedestrian production, but the only standout for the Panthers was Christian McCaffrey, who had a big receiving day in the first game (9-101) and found the end zone (5-33-1) the second time around.  New Orleans is better on defense overall and offers superior offensive weapons, making this a relatively easy call.  Saints 34, Panthers 17.  PICK:  Saints

Understanding how I think the games will play out will give you a strong idea of my thoughts for picks this week.  As mentioned before, you need to take stands this weekend to have success, and I may take a few extreme ones for larger GPPs because I believe that there is a reasonable path to success for a player or two I expect few to target.

Lastly, I listed out all of the quarterbacks, kickers and defenses this week for the eight teams.  That does NOT mean I like them all, but I figured that all of these options will be under consideration for rosters (especially for tournaments), so I wanted to share my outlook.  As always, be sure to read the summaries below each table for more detailed thoughts.

Here are a few general references I will be using as the season progresses:

Footballguys' DFS Week 18 Page

Vegas Value Chart

Interactive Value Chart

Normalized Stength of Schedule (NSOS)

Please note that if a player isn't mentioned in the write-ups but is in the table, it does not mean that I like the player more in the write-ups. The discussion sections are to add more detail, support, and clarity for those players mentioned, but all of the picks in the tables are viable options if they are ranked.

Now, without further ado, here are the players I like the most this week.

QUARTERBACKS

As mentioned earlier, the playoffs are different.  Expect many of these players to be highly owned, and cash games are difficult with so much overlap.  I foresee Alex Smith as the top owned quarterback this week as the Chiefs are a home favorite and expected to score close to the most points this week (26.25).  Tennessee’s defensive weakness is against the pass, but I am going against the grain and fading Smith this week.  Kansas City has actually been much more of a rushing team since Andy Reid gave up the play calling on offense, and Kareem Hunt is seeing far more usage as a result with 92 touches Weeks 14-16.  While I like Kansas City to win, I do not see Smith as the likely best quarterback to use, nor do I expect him to need to throw a lot in chilly Kansas City. 

The quarterbacks I do like are both out West in the game with the highest over-under.  Both Matt Ryan and Jared Goff have clearer paths to 300-yards and/or three touchdown games.  Goff is my preferred option as Todd Gurley is a complete back, offering up strong receiving numbers (64-788-6) as he was the top back in receiving touchdowns, second in yardage and fifth in catches on the year.  Atlanta is one of the worst teams against pass-catching backs as Ryan Hester has pointed out all year long, and I see no reason why Goff and Gurley cannot continue that trend.  On the other side of the same game, Matt Ryan will have to try and keep pace with the Rams on the scoreboard, and it all comes down to game script for me.  I believe that the Falcons will want to run the ball early and keep the game close (and exploit the Los Angeles run defense), but if the Rams get up early, look for Ryan to throw quite a bit.

Drew Brees is also a reasonable option this week, as I really like both Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara to have big games as receivers.  Brees is always a threat to put up a big game, and he had his only three touchdown game this year against the Panthers back in Week 3.  While not likely to happen, I see no reason to avoid using Brees in a GPP stack this week with Thomas, Kamara or even both if you can make it work.

I am avoiding Cam Newton this week as I think Devin Funchess will struggle against Marshon Lattimore and Newton has not done well in both previous matchups against the Saints (three interceptions the first game, just two scores in the second with well under 300 yards).  That is another stand I am making this week.

The last quarterback I will consider this week is a flyer, and you will probably laugh – but in big GPPs I would consider using Marcus Mariota.  Stop laughing.  Seriously.  Okay, you are about to laugh again, but here goes my next semi-crazy statement – I see a path where Mariota is the best point-per-dollar quarterback this weekend.  Read on as to why:

• DeMarco Murray is likely out this week, which will require someone to step up and help produce more offense.
• Last week in a similar situation (against a tougher defense), Mariota took off running 10 times for 60 yards.  That alone should raise his fantasy floor.
• Kansas City plays a great deal of man-to-man coverage, which helps a rushing quarterback to take off and run.
• Both Rishard Matthews and Delanie Walker have good matchups this week.  If both find the end zone, that is two touchdowns for Mariota.
• If the Chiefs do get up early, Mariota will have no choice but to try and throw early and often.  Mariota has value in all game scripts as a result.
• I do not believe that 3x will be required to win GPPs this week across the board.  With just four games and better teams in play, 160-165 may take down the big tournaments (if that), so 2.5x is a reasonable target and quite possibly only one quarterback hits 3x.  That puts Mariota needing 18 points.  If he gets 6 from rushing and throws 250-2-2, that is 22 points, right at 3x ($7,200 for Mariota, so 3x = 21.6).
• I can see a path for Goff, Ryan, Brees and maybe even Alex Smith to have big games, but odds are against it in the most likely game script.  Both the Rams and Saints should run the ball, which limits the upside for Goff and Brees.  Brees has just one three-touchdown game all year, while Ryan has none.  Goff and Smith are more likely to hand the ball off to their feature backs than gun for big passing games.  All are priced above Mariota.

So, while not exactly likely, Mariota is a strong GPP option for big field tournaments and can be stacked with Rishard Matthews, Delanie Walker or even both.  Doing so also opens up salary cap room to afford other stronger options to round out the roster. 

RUNNING BACKS

The common play this week is going to be to pay up at running back.  Todd Gurley has the big price tag at $10,000 this week, which is a lot to pay but given how Atlanta is one of the worst teams against receiving running backs, he could easily be worth it.

Implied game scripts dominate the next tier of running backs.  New Orleans looks to play from ahead on the scoreboard against Carolina, and Alvin Kamara has scored three touchdowns against the Panthers in two games on just 19 touches.  Mark Ingram is also in play but to a much lesser degree than Kamara – but if the Saints are ahead late like they were in Week 13, Ingram could post a similar stat line to that contest (14-85-1, 6-37 receiving) and crush value.

Jacksonville is also expected to dominate at home against Buffalo, who has one of the worst run defenses in the NFL.  The implied game script and matchup make Leonard Fournette one of the top running backs to use in all formats.  Kareem Hunt is in a similar spot for Kansas City, but the matchup against Tennessee is not quite as perfect nor are the Chiefs as likely to favor the run as much as the Jaguars.  What does work in Hunt’s favor is his usage from Weeks 14-16, where he had over 90 touches and a rushing touchdown in each contest.  That timeline matches well for when Andy Reid game up the play calling responsibilities to offensive coordinator Matt Nagy, and that recipe has worked well for Kansas City.  Hunt is a solid option that may be overlooked this week.

After this tier of backs, most of the rushers under consideration are more GPP-type plays.  I like both Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman of Atlanta against the Rams, as the matchup is highly favorable for the Falcons to use their two-headed rushing attack against Los Angeles.  Picking out which back gets in the end zone is the trick, but considering that they are both cheap a gamble on either back could pay off nicely.

Christian McCaffrey was the only real Panther who saw success against New Orleans this year.  McCaffrey had over 100 yards receiving in their first matchup (9-101) and he found the end zone in Week 13 in New Orleans.  He makes for a strong GPP play, even with just 0.5 PPR.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Wide receiver could easily make or break your DFS weekend.  Finding value is tough this week, so finding that WR2 or WR3 that has a reasonable price that could hit 2x or better (and hopefully score) is critical to success.  While two studs (Julio Jones, Michael Thomas) are in great spots and should produce well this weekend, figuring out who else can round out a roster requires a bit more digging.  That said, if you can fit Michael Thomas in, he is my top choice as he has dominated James Bradberry this year (12-157-2) in two games this season.

Kansas City is the second-worst team against WR1s according to DVOA.  That bodes quite well for Rishard Matthews, and Marcus Mariota clearly leans on Matthews more than Corey Davis and Eric Decker when the matchup is favorable.  Recent history is not fair to Matthews with contests against Arizona and Jacksonville in December.  Dig deeper, and favor Matthews this week over Eric Decker and Corey Davis.

Atlanta and the Rams is the most likely shootout this week, but not everyone can afford Julio Jones.  Mohamed Sanu offers decent exposure to a Falcons passing attack that could be playing from behind.  The upside only hits if Sanu scores, but he has five touchdowns and offers gadget play upside as a possible quarterback, rusher or even kick returner.  From the Rams, I favor Cooper Kupp over Robert Woods due to Woods facing Desmund Trufant while Kupp gets a fantastic opportunity working out of the slot against Brian Poole.

I cannot hitch my fate to the Jacksonville passing game.  Allen Hurns is back in action, pushing Keelan Cole down the pecking order.  DeDe Westbrook offers some home run ability as a GPP option, but I expect all of the Jaguars receivers to see few targets in a game where I believe the Jaguars rush the ball often and play defense all afternoon.

Two other receivers to address directly are Tyreek Hill and Devin Funchess.  Funchess will see blanket coverage from Marshon Lattimore, so he is an immediate fade for me.  Even though I expect the Chiefs to run more than pass (or at least have a balanced attack), Hill has big play ability every time he touches the ball.  One catch (or return) can push him from cash value to tournament hero, so he is definitely a viable option against Tennessee.

TIGHT ENDS

Tight end is a very limited list for this week.  Travis Kelce is the top option, but as I stated earlier I do not expect the Chiefs to be throwing a ton this week.  If I could afford him I would use him, but he is often too expensive to fit in the rest of the players I want on my roster.  Greg Olsen is in a similar spot when it comes to salary, but not quite as high, but I also have lesser expectations from Olsen and Carolina overall.

That leaves two options – Delanie Walker and Charles Clay.  Both are viable picks, and I have heard some pundits say that tight end is the way to attack the Jaguars, but I am wondering what they are seeing.   I can't find any good games by a TE against Jacksonville.  Aside from Ricky Seals-Jones (4-72-1) and a 6-catch game by Jack Doyle, I see nothing to even like about a TE matchup against them.  Delanie Walker went 4-61 and 3-19 in two games against the Jaguars.  Clay is worth consideration, but Walker at just $300 more seems like the best (and most popular) option. 

So in summary, Kelce is my top GPP option as he is hard to fit in, but offers up good value with upside.  Clay is not a bad play, but the second-best tight end appears to be Walker.

KICKERS

CHALK and GPP: These general kicker comments will likely be repeated week after week, but they are important so take note. Yes, FanDuel is the only DFS site left that uses a kicker, but you have to deal with it if you are playing on FanDuel. Sorry, that's how it goes. But there's some good news - you can actually make smart, informed decisions that can go a long way towards increasing your bankroll. First, there are four general criteria in picking a kicker:

1. Pick a kicker who is playing at home
2. Pick a kicker who is in a game where his team is favored
3. Pick a kicker whose team is expected to score at least 24 points.
4. Pick a kicker who will not be in bad weather.

Just following that above recipe will help you quite a bit. Remember - a 50+ yard field goal is five points or almost as much as a touchdown. That's significant.

As I mentioned before, I listed all the options this week just as options and rankings, but overall I think I am only really looking at four kickers.  I want no part of Buffalo, so scratch Hauschka.  Sam Ficken is terrible, so he’s off the list as well (but in GPP consideration just because he is cheap and the Rams are supposed to score a bunch of points).  Graham Gano is also off the list as I do not like the Panthers against the Saints and Gano rarely attempts long field goals.

I initially had Harrison Butker as my top option, as he checks all the boxes – but the weather in Kansas City may be a bit too cold to try longer kicks.  The same applies to Ryan Succop as the visiting kicker for the Titans, but there is actually a revenge narrative as the Chiefs cut him a few years ago.  Succop is cheaper than Butker and he has hit three field goals for three weeks in a row.  I like him in GPP lineups.

My favorite GPP kicker is now Josh Lambo.  Not a sexy pick, but sometimes safe is better than sexy.  Jacksonville should dominate Buffalo at home and the Jaguars could play from ahead all of the second half.  Settling for a few field goals to go with a Fournette touchdown or two puts them on the path to a 20- or 23-point afternoon, which should be plenty against the Bills.  Lambo has just two kicks from 50+, but that number may be rare this week.

Matt Bryant is the cash game kicker, and he will be quite popular.  The game script for Atlanta is not favorable, however, as the Falcons are expected to lose on the road to the Rams 27-21.  Throw in that Bryant will be kicking outdoors and that is two strikes against him. 

Wil Lutz is the most expensive kicker (strike one) and he has only six field goal attempts the past four weeks (strike two).  The game will be indoors and the Saints are favored, but I think I am leaning towards cheaper options this week. 

TEAM DEFENSES

If you can fit the Jaguars into your lineup, they are the clear choice of the week.  Buffalo is projected to score only 15.75 points on the road, and that may be generous if LeSean McCoy is out or, more likely, suited up but at less than full strength.  Jacksonville has been the top fantasy defense by a good margin, and with Tyrod Taylor coming to town the Jaguars should be licking their chops.  The problem of course with Jacksonville is price – they cost a ton, and with little value options this week they could be tough to squeeze into a lineup.  That leads me to either Kansas City (hosting Tennessee) or New Orleans (vs. Carolina).  The Saints have been a Top 10 defense all year, and they picked Cam Newton off three times in their first meeting back in Week 3.  The Chiefs are expected to handle the Titans at home, but I am least confident in that and there is a chance of a shootout between Tennessee and Kansas City.  I much rather lean towards Jacksonville or New Orleans.

The only other defense I would consider this week is Los Angeles.  The Rams host the Falcons, who have underachieved all year.  As the third-best defense for FanDuel scoring, the Rams are definitely worth a mention, and they have six touchdowns on the year.  They offer a solid option at lower ownership and cost this week.

Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com

Follow @JeffPasquino