Contrarian means opposing or rejecting popular opinion, going against the current practice. Being a contrarian in fantasy football is difficult because it's not chalk as the DFS kids would call it today. Your gut may not be agreeing with the decision, but it's necessary because a wide range of outcomes is possible during a single football game. The comparison for being contrarian this year in a startup draft would be drafting Jameson Williams or Jonathan Taylor. Risk is involved, but it could be a league-winning selection. Contrarian is where the big money is made within DFS, especially in large tournaments, because you'll submit more unique lineups than your competitors.
- Do mix in one or two of these players within a lineup to maximize individuality.
- Do not create your entire lineup based on the contrarian picks below.
Key for charts:
- Player = recommended contrarian play
- Opponent = Home or away and the opponent
- FD Roster % = This week's FanDuel roster percentages
- FD Salary = FanDuel salary to roster the player
- DK Roster % = This week's DraftKings roster percentages
- DK Salary = DraftKings salary to roster the player
CONTRARIAN QUARTERBACKS
The Arizona defense is one of the least blitzing defenses, and they’ve been an overachieving unit. Brock Purdy has proved he is not a fluke as he’s led the 49ers passing game to the third-highest expected points team. Only two of Purdy’s last eight regular season games have ended with a QB passer rating of below 111.
After learning from Drew Brees for a season, Jameis Winston’s passing efficiency has increased. He’s thrown for 18 TDs against 8 INTs while maintaining a healthy yards per attempt. Providing him with talented weapons in the passing game has the formula for an underrated passing performance. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay’s top defensive players are dealing with injuries and may not play. Players such as Vita Vea, Jamel Dean, and Calijah Kancey haven’t practiced this week. Carlton Davis and Devin White are dealing with injuries as well. The banged-up Bucs defense with a talented Saints skill position group could create an explosive passing performance from Winston.
The Tennessee Titans defense allows the fifth-highest opponent QB passer rating, and now Joe Burrow comes to town. He does have the calf injury concern that he’s battling. However, Burrow has thrown for 69 TD passes and 9,000 yards over the last two regular seasons. Betting on consistent production over time is profitable. I’d expect him to have a much better performance this week.
CONTRARIAN RUNNING BACKS
Khalil Herbert hasn’t lived up to expectations this season, which is why he’s such a low-rostered play this week. Denver’s defense is 31st in the NFL by allowing 5.6 YPC. Josey Jewell is their best linebacker and highest-graded PFF player on defense by a wide margin. But he hasn’t practiced this week, and only Patrick Surtain Jr. has graded out in the average category for the rest of this defense. Herbert owns PFF’s 16th-highest-rated rushing grade. Chicago had a great rushing attack last year, and they have a huge opportunity this week against one of the weakest units in the NFL. Nate Davis should return to the starting lineup at guard to give the line a boost.
The Buffalo Bills are allowing 5.9 YPC, which is the worst in the NFL. Mostert is averaging 17 touches per game this season and leads the NFL in rushing touchdowns. He’s earned it too with being sixth in the NFL in rushing YPC over expectation. PFF has ranked Mostert with the third-best rushing grade in the NFL. Even splitting time with Devon Achane should provide great opportunities for both this week.
James Cook is averaging 18 touches per game and is third in the NFL in rushing yards, but he has yet to score a touchdown. He’s very efficient, too, with 2.01 rushing YPC over expectation, which ranks third in the NFL. In what should be a high-scoring game, Cook plays a Miami defense allowing 4.6 YPC and might be without Jaelen Phillips. Latavius Murray and Damien Harris have been goal-line vultures, but Cook’s due to get into the end zone against this soft run defense.
The Cardinals are leaning on James Conner heavily as he’s currently fourth in the NFL in rushing yards. Conner’s also efficient with averaging 5.2 YPC. Last week, he averaged 7 YPC against one of the best defenses in the NFL. He faces another elite defense this week, but Conner shouldn’t be ignored while he’s producing against every team.
The ultimate contrarian play this week is Samaje Perine. The last two seasons, Chicago has been one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Denver should move the ball up and down the field on Sunday, which will not only create lots of opportunities for touches, but also lots of goal-line potential for Perine. Javonte Williams doesn’t look quite like his regular self yet and Perine has been more efficient on the ground.
CONTRARIAN WIDE RECEIVERS
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