Contrarian means opposing or rejecting popular opinion, going against the current practice. Being a contrarian in fantasy football is difficult because it's not chalk as the DFS kids would call it today. Your gut may not be agreeing with the decision, but it's necessary because a wide range of outcomes is possible during a single football game. The comparison for being contrarian this year in a startup draft would be drafting Jameson Williams or Jonathan Taylor. Risk is involved, but it could be a league-winning selection. Contrarian is where the big money is made within DFS, especially in large tournaments, because you'll be submitting more unique lineups than your competitors.
Do mix in one or two of these players within a lineup to maximize individuality.
Do not create your entire lineup based on the contrarian picks below.
Key for charts:
- Player = recommended contrarian play
- Opponent = Home or away and the opponent
- FD Roster % = This weeks Fanduel roster percentages
- FD Salary = Fanduel salary to roster the player
- DK Roster % = This weeks Draftkings roster percentages
- DK Salary = Draftkings salary to roster the player
Nothing worked for the Chicago Bears offense in Week 1, and it felt like a preseason game. Despite having only one designed run, Justin Fields was PFF's 3rd best rusher among all positions. QB rushing ability is king for FF scoring, and Fields has the highest rushing potential for any QB in the NFL. It's difficult to imagine the passing game being worse than in Week 2. Chicago will be taking more chances down the field, which will create high-scoring opportunities. Tampa Bay allowed Kirk Cousins to throw for 344 yards and two touchdowns in Week 1. The Bucs could be without starting CB Carlton Davis and explosive pass rusher Calijah Kancey, as they haven't practiced this week.
I became a believer again. I had doubts about Head coach Sean McVay and Matt Stafford because of last year and the injuries, but shame on me. I believe in them again because they were in their bag with dialing up great plays, and Stafford was fantastic with his execution. Stafford averaged 8.8 yards per attempt for 334 passing yards, which puts him back at his 2021 form. It's possible Puka Nacua could miss the game due to an injury, but I still have confidence in the Rams passing game despite playing a great 49ers defense. Somehow, Stafford is cheaper in DFS and has a low roster percentage, which creates an even better opportunity.
One of the most disappointing teams from Week 1 was Seattle. Geno Smith had an average performance, but the entire team looked out of sync. I expect Seattle and this talented passing game to bounce back in Week 2 against Detroit, which has a vulnerable defense with many new starters still trying to gain rapport with each other.
The Chicago Bears have the worst pass rush in the NFL, which revealed its ugly head on Sunday with an NFL low pressure rate. Chicago is going to be without starting nickelback Kyler Gordon and potentially his backup as well. Giving Baker Mayfield a long time to throw to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin with a beat-up secondary sounds like a good situation.
I thought more people would become Brock Purdy believers after Sunday's performance, but his roster percentage indicates some doubt. Purdy has thrown double-digit touchdown passes in seven consecutive regular season games. He leads one of the most talented skill position groups against one of the least talented and youngest defenses in the NFL this week. Purdy is in line for another productive game in Week 2.
David Montgomery dominated this backfield in touches in Week 1. Montgomery was the least efficient RB in yards per carry over expected during his time in Chicago, and he followed that up with a -0.45 rushing yards per carry over expected last week. Jahmyr Gibbs looked explosive and would've scored a touchdown if he didn't trip himself in Week 1. It's only a matter of time until Detroit gives the more efficient back more touches. The bonus here for Gibbs is a very low DFS price this week to add to your lineups.
AJ Dillon didn't look good in Week 1 and finished with -1.76 rushing yards per carry over expected. However, Aaron Jones will likely miss the game due to an injury, and the workload will fall squarely on Dillon's shoulders. The Atlanta Falcons defense allowed 4.8 yards per carry in Week 1, which was the 6th most in the NFL. This matchup and Dillon's potential touches are enticing for Week 2.
Did Bijan Robinson's shine wear off in Week 1? I believe at least some of it did with his roster percentages being low, and it provides an opportunity to be contrarian. Robinson was PFF's 14th best overall RB, and he still produced 2.05 yards per carry-over expectation, which was 4th best in Week 1. Now he faces a Packers defensive front, which allowed 5.0 yards per carry in 2022 and could be without starting LB Quay Walker in Week 2.
Touches are king for RBs in fantasy football, and Brian Robinson had 20 of them in Week 1, which dominated the Commanders backfield. Robinson wasn't efficient, but nobody was on the offense. Playing Robinson is a bet on touches and the whole team bouncing back. However, not many RBs are available near this roster percentage that might produce 20 or more touches in Week 2.
Rachaad White was the 8th worst RB in regards to rushing yards per carry over expected in 2022 and followed that up with being last in Week 1 with -2.4. The Chicago Bears have the worst defensive line in football and provide an opportunity for Tampa Bay to make some big plays in the run game. Sean Tucker is the best runner in that backfield and he proved it in Week 1. This is a completely contrarian play, but Tucker did have seven touches in Week 1 and could receive more work as early as this week.
Both Houston Texans starting safeties have missed practice this week, and multiple linebackers have been limited as well. Michael Pittman finished Week 1 with a 28% target share and 11 overall targets despite having a rookie QB. The Colts even manufactured targets for Pittman in the screen game. Pittman was a large part of the game plan in Week 1, and it shouldn't change in Week 2 against a beat-up Texans secondary.
DeAndre Hopkins is likely going to miss this game, which opens up a 38% target share in this passing game from Week 1. Treylon Burks did take a backseat to Hopkins and even Nick Westbrook-Ikhine at times on Sunday. Ryan Tannehill had a poor Week 1 but will face a Chargers defense that just allowed Tua Tagovailoa to throw for 466 yards. The opportunity for Burks to have a breakout in Week 2 is higher than his current DFS roster percentage.
Dallas leaned on their defense in Week 1 and didn't need much from the offense. However, the Jets in Week 2 have too good of a defense to let this game get out of hand. Ceedee Lamb should gain the attention of Sauce Gardner and the Jets secondary. Unfortunately, Brandin Cooks will miss this contest due to a knee injury and provide an underrated opportunity for Michael Gallup to be productive as the second option in this offense.
Romeo Doubs came through in a big way in Week 1 with two touchdown receptions and a 19 percent target share despite his questionable hamstring injury. Both Christian Watson and Aaron Jones are unlikely to play this week, which creates an even bigger target share opportunity for Doubs. Atlanta held the Panthers in check in Week 1. However, it's likely a mirage with Carolina starting a rookie QB and lacking weapons anywhere on the field. Jordan Love's confidence Doubs should only continue to grow in Week 2.
Ready for a stat to knock your socks off? Tutu Atwell had the 3rd best PFF receiving grade from Week 1! This is Atwell's 3rd season in the NFL, which can be a breakout year for some WRs. He finished Week 1 with 119 receiving yards on almost half as many targets as the current darling Puka Nacua. What if people are investing in the wrong Rams receiver right now? The Rams motioned Atwell to create better releases, and he was fearless over the middle of the field with a rejuvenated Matt Stafford.
Chris Godwin is on the higher end of being contrarian, but he should have a huge game on Sunday. Chicago will be without their starting nickel CB and potentially their backup nickel CB due to injuries. Godwin thrives in the slot, and Chicago's zone coverage was a mess in Week 1. Also, the Bears outside CBs have length and might not be the best matchup for Tampa Bay to exploit with Mike Evans.
The Dallas Cowboys defense embarrassed the New York Giants in Week 1. Zach Wilson will be starting for the Jets with the Aaron Rodgers injury, and the matchup with a good Cowboys pass rush appears disastrous. However, Wilson will be looking to get the football out quickly, and Tyler Conklin is a reliable checkdown target. Conklin has quietly produced back-to-back 550+ yard seasons in his career and is due to bounce back in Week 2.
Tyler Higbee caught all three of his targets for 49 yards in Week 1 but didn't receive the target share many fantasy players had anticipated. The Week 2 matchup with the 49ers will be difficult. The Rams must pass the football to stay in the football game, and Matt Stafford put on a show last week. Unfortunately, Week 1 star WR Puka Nacua didn't practice on Thursday, which opens the door for a potentially larger target share for Higbee.
Injuries will likely force Christian Watson and Aaron Jones not to play this week, which opens up the passing game even more than in Week 1. Luke Musgrave showed his athleticism and versatility against the Bears. If Musgrave had better balance, he would've scored a touchdown and added at least another 30 yards to his total on Sunday. The Packers offense keeps Musgrave on the field and utilizes him in many ways. His role will only expand as the season continues.
Fantasy owners are frustrated with Kyle Pitts and his usage in Atlanta's offense. This is why the most athletic TE in the NFL is available as a contrarian play and low-rostered in DFS. Pitts earned 44 receiving yards in Week 1, and a bigger game awaits him in Week 2 against Green Bay. The weakest part of the Packers defense is the nickel CB and safeties, which is where Pitts can exploit in the regular passing plays and when the Falcons lean into their play-action concepts. The Packers might also be without the services of their best coverage linebacker, Quay Walker, as he's recovering from a concussion.
The Chargers pass defense had a rough Week 1, but so did Ryan Tannehill after throwing three interceptions. It will be tough for Tannehill to bounce back in Week 2 with DeAndre Hopkins likely missing the game due to an injury. The Chargers defense held Miami to 3.5 YPC and will need to stay stout to slow down Derrick Henry. I expect the Chargers to be leading this game, which will force Tennessee to pass more and set up more potential FF points for this defense.
Washington's offense struggled in Week 1 against Arizona, which is one of the worst teams in the NFL. The Commanders were 27th in yards per play, 21st in 3rd down conversions, 23rd in red zone percentage, and playing at home. Sam Howell's 77.6 QB passer rating ranks 23rd in the NFL as well. Now Washington has to travel to Denver to face a talented defense that is looking to bounce back after a mediocre performance in Week 1.