The Archetype of a Top-12 TE

Christian Williams's The Archetype of a Top-12 TE Christian Williams Published 04/19/2023

The tight end position consistently creates dilemmas for fantasy managers. Whether it's Travis Kelce, George Kittle, or Mark Andrews, the position has become more top-heavy than ever. When drafting, managers must decide whether to invest an early pick on one of the elite tight ends or discover a late-round gem. But the late-round catch is often challenging to identify, as there's much less yearly consistency beyond the top three at the position.

The final installment in the archetype series identifies the archetype for a top-12 tight end to help identify potential risers and late-round gems based on 2022 performance.

The Sample

Like wide receivers, tight end usage hasn't drastically changed with the game's evolution. The top tier is traditionally apparent, and the overall output from the bottom of the top-12 hovers around ten fantasy points per game. The sample for this study included the top-12 TEs from 2018-2022.

The Archetype

Over the last five years, the average top-12 tight end looks like this:

Average Demographics

AGE EXP G DRAFT CAPITAL RAS COLLEGE DOMINATOR
26.85 5.13 14.10 3rd 8.62 23.24%

  • Draft Capital refers to the round the player was selected in his NFL Draft.
  • According to Player Profiler, the term College Dominator Rating was "first outlined by Frank DuPont in the book Game Plan, the college dominator rating represents a player's 'market share' or his percentage of his team's offensive production."
  • RAS is the relative athletic score for that player, which is determined by a combination of athletic test results (usually from the NFL Combine).

Average Statistics

TGT REC RECYD Y/REC RECTD FP/G FANTPT TGT/G REC/G RECYD/G RECTD/G
94.45 65.85 775.98 11.8 5.57 12.51 177.43 6.58 4.60 54.29 0.39

Main Takeaways

  • Draft capital doesn't correlate with statistical significance with top-12 finishes.
  • The relative athletic score average is second-highest among fantasy positions behind only running backs. Great athletes are more successful at scoring fantasy points.
  • Just three 2022 tight ends eclipsed the average touchdown clip of 5.57; the position was less dependent on finding paydirt.
  • Travis Kelce was the only 2022 TE to eclipse the targets/game, receptions/game, receiving yards/game, and touchdowns/game thresholds. 2022 was the only year from the sample where only the No. 1 TE met all four thresholds.

The 2022 Top 12 Tight Ends

Travis Kelce Average Demographics and Statistics

AGE EXP G DRAFT CAPITAL RAS COLLEGE DOMINATOR
33 10 17 3rd 9.57 27.6
TGT REC RECYD Y/REC RECTD FP/G FANTPT TGT/G REC/G RECYD/G RECTD/G
152 110 1338 12.2 12 18.6 316.3 8.94 6.47 78.71 0.71

George Kittle Average Demographics and Statistics

AGE EXP G DRAFT CAPITAL RAS COLLEGE DOMINATOR
29 6 15 5th 9.57 23.2
TGT REC RECYD Y/REC RECTD FP/G FANTPT TGT/G REC/G RECYD/G RECTD/G
86 60 765 12.8 11 13.5 202.5 5.73 4.00 51.00 0.73

Mark Andrews Average Demographics and Statistics

AGE EXP G DRAFT CAPITAL RAS COLLEGE DOMINATOR
27 5 15 3rd 7.42 18
TGT REC RECYD Y/REC RECTD FP/G FANTPT TGT/G REC/G RECYD/G RECTD/G
113 73 847 11.6 5 12.6 188.5 7.53 4.87 56.47 0.33

T.J. Hockenson Average Demographics and Statistics

AGE EXP G DRAFT CAPITAL RAS COLLEGE DOMINATOR
25 4 17 1st 9.29 24
TGT REC RECYD Y/REC RECTD FP/G FANTPT TGT/G REC/G RECYD/G RECTD/G
129 86 914 10.6 6 12.6 213.4 7.59 5.06 53.76 0.35

Dallas Goedert Average Demographics and Statistics

AGE EXP G DRAFT CAPITAL RAS COLLEGE DOMINATOR
27 5 12 2nd 9.64 30.7
TGT REC RECYD Y/REC RECTD FP/G FANTPT TGT/G REC/G RECYD/G RECTD/G
69 55 702 12.8 3 11.9 143.2 5.75 4.58 58.50 0.25

Zach Ertz Average Demographics and Statistics

AGE EXP G DRAFT CAPITAL RAS COLLEGE DOMINATOR
32 10 10 2nd 6.39 31.8
TGT REC RECYD Y/REC RECTD FP/G FANTPT TGT/G REC/G RECYD/G RECTD/G
69 47 406 8.6 4 11.2 111.6 6.90 4.70 40.60 0.40

Evan Engram Average Demographics and Statistics

AGE EXP G DRAFT CAPITAL RAS COLLEGE DOMINATOR
28 6 17 1st 9.22 29.5
TGT REC RECYD Y/REC RECTD FP/G FANTPT TGT/G REC/G RECYD/G RECTD/G
98 73 766 10.5 4 10.3 174.9 5.76 4.29 45.06 0.24

David Njoku Average Demographics and Statistics

AGE EXP G DRAFT CAPITAL RAS COLLEGE DOMINATOR
26 6 14 1st 9.45 24.6
TGT REC RECYD Y/REC RECTD FP/G FANTPT TGT/G REC/G RECYD/G RECTD/G
80 58 628 10.8 4 10.3 144 5.71 4.14 44.86 0.29

Dalton Schultz Average Demographics and Statistics

AGE EXP G DRAFT CAPITAL RAS COLLEGE DOMINATOR
26 5 15 4th 7.26 11.4
TGT REC RECYD Y/REC RECTD FP/G FANTPT TGT/G REC/G RECYD/G RECTD/G
89 57 577 10.1 5 9.6 144.7 5.93 3.80 38.47 0.33

Darren Waller Average Demographics and Statistics

AGE EXP G DRAFT CAPITAL RAS COLLEGE DOMINATOR
30 8 9 6th 9.29 32.1
TGT REC RECYD Y/REC RECTD FP/G FANTPT TGT/G REC/G RECYD/G RECTD/G
43 28 388 13.9 3 9.4 84.8 4.78 3.11 43.11 0.33

Pat Freiermuth Average Demographics and Statistics

AGE EXP G DRAFT CAPITAL RAS COLLEGE DOMINATOR
24 2 16 2nd N/A 24.8
TGT REC RECYD Y/REC RECTD FP/G FANTPT TGT/G REC/G RECYD/G RECTD/G
98 63 732 11.6 2 9.3 148.2 6.13 3.94 45.75 0.13

Dawson Knox Average Demographics and Statistics

AGE EXP G DRAFT CAPITAL RAS COLLEGE DOMINATOR
26 4 15 3rd 9.37 4.2
TGT REC RECYD Y/REC RECTD FP/G FANTPT TGT/G REC/G RECYD/G RECTD/G
65 48 517 10.8 6 9 135.7 0.40 0.60 9.05 0.40

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The Potential Risers

Greg Dulcich, Denver

While the coaching change complicates Dulcich's outlook, he stood out among 2022 rookies as the guy most poised for a breakout in Year 2. He averaged 5.5 targets and 41.1 receiving yards on 3.3 receptions per game. While none of these numbers meet the thresholds, he was the top target-getter that finished outside the top-12 in points per game.

Cole Kmet, Chicago

The Bears added DJ Moore, which could result in one of two outcomes for Kmet: he is freer to operate with defensive attention on Moore, or he loses targets in a run-heavy offense. Despite throwing just 377 times, the Bears gave Kmet 69 targets. The 18% target share landed Kmet in the end zone, as he averaged 0.41 touchdowns per game, crossing the threshold of an average top-12 tight end. The situation is different, but a commitment to the passing game seems imminent, and Kmet's ability to find the end zone could land him inside the top 12.

Kyle Pitts, Atlanta

Pitts had a down year with the abysmal quarterback play in Atlanta, but his down year resulted in 5.4 targets per game (just behind Dulcich). With the additions around him (Mack Hollins, Jonnu Smith, and likely more from the NFL Draft), Pitts looks as good a bet as any to return to the top 12.

Gerald Everett, LA Chargers

Gerald Everett is penciled in as the Chargers' starting tight end again in 2023, and an offensive improvement with Kellen Moore's arrival could result in a massive boost for the veteran tight end. Everett averaged 5.1 targets, 3.6 receptions, and 34.69 yards per game in 2022. He added 0.25 touchdowns per game. Kellen Moore featured Dalton Schultz over the last two years in Dallas, and Everett's ability after the catch could make him even more productive.

Rookies with a Headstart

Twelve tight ends enter the 2023 draft above the 8.62 relative athletic score threshold of a top-12 tight end. Two also meet the College Dominator threshold: Sam LaPorta and Zack Kuntz. Both players hope to hear their name called before the end of Day 2, and they historically have better odds of becoming a top-12 tight end.

Dalton Kincaid missed most of the pre-draft process and did not qualify for a relative athletic score, but he posted a 34.1% College Dominator and should hope to hear his name called before the first night of the draft concludes.

Similarly, Luke Musgrave missed all but two games in 2022. In his two games, he posted a College Dominator of 26.1%. The Oregon State standout also finished with a 9.78 relative athletic score. He has received first-round buzz and should not make it out of the Top 100.

Michael Mayer, another first-round tight end prospect, posted a 35.8% College Dominator with a 7.66 relative athletic score. While he didn't meet the threshold for the latter, he profiles as a possible top-12 option throughout his career.

The Dynasty Implications

While the big names have dominated the tight end landscape, identifying the next tier can be vital. The names at the tail-end of the top 12 will soon be ascending to the top tier as Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, and George Kittle begin to hit the twilight of their respective careers. The 2023 rookie class oozes with potential fantasy performers, and the potential risers are also in the early stages of their careers. While it's important to remember this archetype isn't the end-all, be-all, chasing players who meet these criteria could result in success.

Thank you for reading! Please follow and ask any questions @CWilliamsNFL on Twitter. You can also find my articles here.

Photos provided by Imagn Images
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