Is Mark Andrews a Dynasty Target?

Photo: USA Today Sports

One of the best parts about dynasty fantasy football leagues is the year-long commitment to the team. The ongoing nature of dynasty teams creates a lot of advantages for GMs who use good strategy and roster construction. Free agency, trades, the NFL Draft, and the different news cycles lead to different strategies for different positions. Here, we focus on a known player who is surprisingly undervalued this season.

Related: Should you target young WRs in Dynasty?

How Top TEs Score

There are three ways right ends can score as top-six finishers at the tight end position.

First, tight ends can aggregate their way to a top-six finisher by running a high number of routes. In 2020, Logan Thomas ran the second most routes in the league among tight ends (655) and aggregated his way to 77 receptions, 744 receiving yards, six touchdowns, and a TE3 finish. Thomas was about average in per-route productiveness, but his availability and route participation allowed him to aggregate TE3 stats.

Second, tight ends can be very efficient on a lower number of routes. George Kittle has been the classic player in this profile. In 2021, George Kittle finished as TE4 in season-long points, despite missing three games and ranking 18th in routes. Kittle led the tight end position in yards per route run (2.35) en route to 71 receptions, 916 receiving yards, and six touchdowns.

Third, tight ends can have good touchdown variance. Robert Tonyan Jr's 2020 season, when he tied Thomas as TE3, is the model. Tonyan caught 52 receptions and 586 receiving yards but had 11 receiving touchdowns. Tonyan was not particularly efficient per route, but the touchdown variance boosted Tonyan to the top of the position.

Of the three models, the best bets for future production are the efficient tight ends ahead of the aggregators. Touchdown variance is the worst bet to repeat itself and is a clear sign of regression.

While a top-six seasonal finish is good, your goal should be players who can finish at TE1 overall.

In 2022, Travis Kelce, the TE1, was a full six PPG better than TE3, which was the same difference between TE3 and TE25.

As you go down the rankings at tight end, the scoring becomes much tight. For example, the difference between TE3 (12.6) and TE9 (9.6) was three PPG. Dalton Schultz ranked 9th in PPG and averaged 9.6 PPG. TE16 in points per game was a tie between Greg Dulcich and Gerald Everett, whom each averaged 8.6 PPG. In other words, nine tight ends finished within a point of each other.

In short, if a tight end does not have a TE1-3 finish, they begin blending in very quickly. To achieve a TE1 position, you need a combination of elite efficiency and a high number of routes.

Since Rob Gronkowski's final TE1 overall finish in 2015, the TE1 finish has been decided by receptions and receiving yards. While Travis Kelce has three double-digit touchdown seasons during the span, his advantage over the TE2 was bigger than his touchdown advantage in each of those seasons. The combination of volume and efficiency necessary to finish as the TE1 in a season is an elite combination only a handful of players are capable of in a season, and the place to start is tight ends with the prior TE1 finish.

In 2021, Mark Andrews became the ninth tight end since 2000 to finish as the TE1. Two others, Todd Heap and Dallas Clark have finished as the TE1 once. The tight ends with multiple TE1 finishes are all Hall of Fame players. Jason Witten, Jimmy Graham, and Antonio Gates have accomplished the feat twice, while Rob Gronkowski has done so three times. Tony Gonzalez has done so five times, and Travis Kelce has six times. This is an exclusive club compared to other positions.