One of the best parts about dynasty fantasy football leagues is the year-long commitment to the team. The ongoing nature of dynasty teams creates a lot of advantages for GMs who use good strategy and roster construction. Free agency, trades, the NFL Draft, and the different news cycles lead to different strategies for different positions. Here, we focus on a known player who is surprisingly undervalued this season.
Related: Should you target young WRs in Dynasty?
How Top TEs Score
There are three ways right ends can score as top-six finishers at the tight end position.
First, tight ends can aggregate their way to a top-six finisher by running a high number of routes. In 2020, Logan Thomas ran the second most routes in the league among tight ends (655) and aggregated his way to 77 receptions, 744 receiving yards, six touchdowns, and a TE3 finish. Thomas was about average in per-route productiveness, but his availability and route participation allowed him to aggregate TE3 stats.
Second, tight ends can be very efficient on a lower number of routes. George Kittle has been the classic player in this profile. In 2021, George Kittle finished as TE4 in season-long points, despite missing three games and ranking 18th in routes. Kittle led the tight end position in yards per route run (2.35) en route to 71 receptions, 916 receiving yards, and six touchdowns.
Third, tight ends can have good touchdown variance. Robert Tonyan Jr's 2020 season, when he tied Thomas as TE3, is the model. Tonyan caught 52 receptions and 586 receiving yards but had 11 receiving touchdowns. Tonyan was not particularly efficient per route, but the touchdown variance boosted Tonyan to the top of the position.
Of the three models, the best bets for future production are the efficient tight ends ahead of the aggregators. Touchdown variance is the worst bet to repeat itself and is a clear sign of regression.
While a top-six seasonal finish is good, your goal should be players who can finish at TE1 overall.
In 2022, Travis Kelce, the TE1, was a full six PPG better than TE3, which was the same difference between TE3 and TE25.
As you go down the rankings at tight end, the scoring becomes much tight. For example, the difference between TE3 (12.6) and TE9 (9.6) was three PPG. Dalton Schultz ranked 9th in PPG and averaged 9.6 PPG. TE16 in points per game was a tie between Greg Dulcich and Gerald Everett, whom each averaged 8.6 PPG. In other words, nine tight ends finished within a point of each other.
In short, if a tight end does not have a TE1-3 finish, they begin blending in very quickly. To achieve a TE1 position, you need a combination of elite efficiency and a high number of routes.
Since Rob Gronkowski's final TE1 overall finish in 2015, the TE1 finish has been decided by receptions and receiving yards. While Travis Kelce has three double-digit touchdown seasons during the span, his advantage over the TE2 was bigger than his touchdown advantage in each of those seasons. The combination of volume and efficiency necessary to finish as the TE1 in a season is an elite combination only a handful of players are capable of in a season, and the place to start is tight ends with the prior TE1 finish.
In 2021, Mark Andrews became the ninth tight end since 2000 to finish as the TE1. Two others, Todd Heap and Dallas Clark have finished as the TE1 once. The tight ends with multiple TE1 finishes are all Hall of Fame players. Jason Witten, Jimmy Graham, and Antonio Gates have accomplished the feat twice, while Rob Gronkowski has done so three times. Tony Gonzalez has done so five times, and Travis Kelce has six times. This is an exclusive club compared to other positions.
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Mark Andrews' Profile
Andrews is an elite performer. On his career, Andrews has 2.18 yards per route run, a 99th percentile performance among tight ends with more than 200 career routes since 2008. He has been targeted on 24.9% of his routes, the 100th percentile performance among tight ends, with more than 200 receiving routes since 2008.
The hang-up on Andrews has been his route volume.
In his career, Andrews has ranked 23rd, 25th, 19th, 1st, and 10th in route volume among tight ends. His season where he finished as TE1 was the season he finished first in route volume. In his career, Andrews has run routes on 66% of the team's dropbacks despite missing five games and being a limited participant in his rookie season. In each of the past three seasons, Andrews has more than 70% route participation and has ranked 9th, 3rd, and 6th in route participation among tight ends in each season.
The key question for Andrews is the volume of the Baltimore passing game. In his tenure in the league, Baltimore has been one of the most run-centric teams in the league. One way to measure this is passing rate over expectation, which compares how often a team threw the ball relative to the league average in similar game situations. In each year of Andrews's career, Baltimore has thrown it less than expectation:
- 2018: 6% below expectation
- 2019: 7% below expectation
- 2020: 10% below expectation
- 2021: 1% below expectation
- 2022: 4% below expectation
The closest season Baltimore was to passing at a league average expectation was 2021, when Andrews finished as TE1. Andrews's finish as TE1 while his team was below passing game expectation was the only TE1 season since 2011 with a negative passing rate.
By comparison, since 2011, on average, the TE1's team had a 7% over-expectation passing rate, and every other TE1 was on a team with a passing rate above expectation.
The Ravens Should Pass More in 2023
Andrews should benefit from Baltimore's move from former offensive coordinator Greg Roman to Todd Monken. In four seasons calling plays in the NFL, Monken's average season was 1% over expectation, and his lowest passing expectation rate has been league average. Monken returned to the NFL after spending the last three seasons at Georgia. During each of the past two seasons, Georgia's tight end Brock Bowers led the team in receiving, so this could be an outstanding combination for Andrews.
This sets up the ultimate formula for an Andrews mega-season. Andrews is the heir apparent to Travis Kelce for the throne as the king of TE1 finishers and is a prime target before the 2023 season.