AFC News from the Past Week
Baltimore
QB Lamar Jackson announced via Twitter that he requested a trade on March 2 and that the Ravens have “not been interested in meeting my value.”
Why It Matters: Jackson going public with the trade request three-plus weeks after making it and right before John Harbaugh’s scheduled time with the media at the league’s spring meetings would seem to make a trade more likely, but it’s hard to say exactly how likely a deal is at this point. The team that acquires Jackson might need to offer a fully guaranteed contract like the one Deshaun Watson got. The Ravens are putting in a new offense, and it’s unclear if Jackson will attend OTAs or camp to be part of new offensive coordinator Todd Monken’s install. Teams are through the first and second waves of free agency and ready to prepare for the season with what they have right now, so they might be conservative about rearranging everything to make room for Jackson. Then again, the Jets appear to be doing that for the winter years of Aaron Rodgers' career. If no trade happens, we have to wonder if Jackson will try to force the team’s hand a la Le’Veon Bell and sit out the season. Only Indianapolis has expressed interest, so we must consider whether this will remain unresolved through the summer and incorporate that uncertainty into the projections for this offense.
The Ravens signed WR Nelson Agholor (New England) to a one-year, $3.25 million deal.
Why It Matters: The Ravens are hamstrung cap-wise by Lamar Jackson’s franchise tag, so this is about the best they can do to help Jackson or whoever lines up at quarterback in Week 1. Agholor got $22 million from the Patriots over the last two seasons, and New England got 68 receptions for 835 yards and two scores from their investment. Hunter Henry is the last player left on the Patriots roster from the trio of him, Agholor, and Jonnu Smith, that was supposed to revitalize the offense. Agholor could start for Baltimore despite the small salary because of the lack of proven competition, and this offense could pass more with Todd Monken calling the shots, but Agholor is only worth a late-round pick if Jackson is on the field in Week 1.
Buffalo
Head coach Sean McDermott said, “We have to get that adjusted,” in reference to the number of hits QB Josh Allen takes during games.
Why It Matters: The signing of Damien Harris could help McDermott make that adjustment because he gives the Bills the legitimate power back they have lacked, but a lot of Allen’s rushing stats come on scrambles and improvised runs, so even if the team reduces the number of times he runs by design, Allen should still pad his fantasy stats with rushing production enough to stay in the top three fantasy quarterbacks, where he is currently being drafted. Allen was well ahead of the pack as the #1 fantasy quarterback last year before suffering an elbow injury.
Cincinnati
The Bengals signed TE Irv Smith Jr. (Minnesota).
Why It Matters: Smith was a promising second-round pick by Minnesota in 2019 when he was only 20 years old, but injuries and plateaus in his development kept him from making the expected impact. Contract terms were not immediately available, but Smith likely came cheap on a one-year prove-it deal. Devin Asiasi and Tanner Hudson are his main competition to take over a role that helped Hayden Hurst land a three-year, $21 million deal with Carolina this offseason. Smith should be on our offseason/preseason watch list because he’ll only be 25 when the season starts, and he has a fresh start in a good offense.
NFC News from the Past Week
Atlanta
The Falcons signed DL Calais Campbell (Baltimore) to a one-year deal.
Why It Matters: This is notable because Campbell also drew interest from the Jaguars, Lions, Bills, and Jets, who all seem closer to the playoffs and a potential Super Bowl berth than the Falcons. Maybe Campbell didn’t weigh win-now considerations heavily in his deliberations, but in any event, this should be considered a sign of respectability for a team that has decided to build up around an unsettled long-term quarterback situation after they were in on Deshaun Watson last offseason. The Falcons look like NFC South contenders after an active March on the free agent front, not just because the other three starting quarterbacks are Derek Carr, Baker Mayfield, and the #1 pick.
Carolina
The Panthers signed WR D.J. Chark Jr. (Detroit) to a one-year, $5 million deal.
Why It Matters: Frank Reich said that he “had his eye on Chark for a couple of years” and that they’ll develop Chark to be more than a vertical receiver. Assistant head coach/RB coach Duce Staley and Chark were together with the Lions last year, and the team also had other offensive coaches recruit Chark before he signed. While the contract is a significant drop from the one-year, $10 million deal he got from Detroit last year, Chark is in position to be the team’s #1 downfield receiver, and whether it’s Andy Dalton or the #1 pick, the passing game should improve. He’s worth a late-round pick, but monitor his recovery from January ankle surgery, as Chark playing only 15 games over the last two seasons is probably a big part of why he found a tepid market.
Detroit
The Lions signed WR Marvin Jones Jr to a one-year, $3 million deal.
Why It Matters: Jones is back with an organization where he experienced enough success to completely play out a five-year, $40 million deal he signed in 2016. His stats declined last year after the Jaguars signed Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, and Evan Engram in free agency. Marvin Jones will compete with Josh Reynolds for snaps as the #3 receiver as the team hopes 2022 first-round pick Jameson Williams makes the leap this year as a top downfield receiver in the fantasy-friendly pass offense. This is a smart depth signing, but it won’t be noteworthy for fantasy until multiple injuries strike the Lions' wide receiver corps.
Philadelphia
The NFL Competition Committee will not assess the legality of the “tush push,” the Eagles' preferred goal-line sneak play with QB Jalen Hurts.
Why It Matters: The Eagles converted 36 of 40 quarterback sneaks last year, contributing largely to Hurts’ 13 regular season rushing scores. There was some talk that the league would review whether the Eagles' tactic of having players line up behind Hurts and push him forward was legal, but it looks like Hurts will be lined up to lead quarterbacks in rushing scores again in 2023.
Head coach Nick Sirianni said RB Trey Sermon has “got a chance to be really good” and wishes he “could get him touches.”
Why It Matters: While this might be dismissed as offseason coachspeak, the Eagles did keep Sermon on the roster all season, so they must see something in him. Sermon will compete with Rashaad Penny, Boston Scott, and Kenneth Gainwell (and maybe a rookie, maybe even top prospect Bijan Robinson) for touches, but Penny is injury-prone, and Scott and Gainwell are undersized, so there’s a path to value for Sermon in one of the most productive backfields in NFL history. Sermon will be worth a late-round pick if he can build momentum this summer.
San Francisco
The 49ers acquired PK Zane Gonzalez from Carolina for a 2025 conditional pick.
Why It Matters: In leagues that still use kickers, Gonzalez could have some value after missing all of the 2022 season. Robbie Gould was the #5 scoring kicker in 2022 in this role for the 49ers, and Gonzalez probably has a better distance leg than Gould, who only attempted two kicks from 50+ yards last season. Put Gonzalez on your last-round kicker target list, assuming he’s healthy to begin the season.
General manager John Lynch said all three of Sam Darnold, Brock Purdy, and Trey Lance would compete to start at quarterback but that Purdy is the “leader in the clubhouse.” Lance and Sam Darnold will split first-team snaps while Purdy is out this offseason.
Why It Matters: This isn’t a surprise, as Nick Bosa, George Kittle, and even Lance himself have acknowledged that Purdy earned a chance to start again after he led the team to the NFC Championship following season-ending injuries for Lance and Jimmy Garoppolo. Splitting snaps with Darnold is a little more ominous for Lance, but Kyle Shanahan did leave open that Lance could regain the #1 quarterback job while Purdy is recovering from elbow surgery. Lance still has a ton of speculative value because of the quality of this offense and his rushing ability, but he could also be a trade target if Purdy’s recovery goes well and Darnold takes to Shanahan’s scheme. Consider making a buy-low trade offer for Lance in Superflex dynasty leagues.
Seattle
The Seahawks signed LB Bobby Wagner to a one-year, $7 million deal.
Why It Matters: Wagner is back after only one year away from the franchise that drafted him in 2012. This isn’t great news for Jordyn Brooks (recovering from ACL surgery) in IDP leagues, but good news for the Seahawks' bid to build on their 2022 success. Some pundits have suggested that Wagner won’t be a three-down linebacker any longer, so build in some downside to Wagner’s projections compared to 2022.
